Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Wasn't 2008 a legendary December but then Jan and Feb didn't do much in Oregon as far as I remember?Correct. Winter blew it's wad in December, but ohhh was it ever amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The January was REALLY cold though. We did have snow down here. That was a jet suppression-gap outflow oriented January. Generally better for frozen precip the further south you went. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The January was REALLY cold though. We did have snow down here.January was cold. 2” of snow for the season is terrible though. We average close to 30” here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 No doubt we have some very interesting years on the table this time around.We had some interesting years last year too and it ended up being an awesome winter for most. Fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948.Now with some extrapolation we should be able to predict the outcome of November into December with relative accuracy. Keep that GOA ridge burning hot and strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?Some renegade observers have recently been toying with the idea that weather *may* be complicated. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 Some renegade observers have recently been toying with the idea that weather *may* be complicated.Dang. I was hoping it was as easy as 1-2-3.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 Now with some extrapolation we should be able to predict the outcome of November into December with relative accuracy. Keep that GOA ridge burning hot and strong. That's not how the climate works, unfortunately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 3, 2017 Report Share Posted November 3, 2017 That's not how the climate works, unfortunately.I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2017 One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there? October 1949 was actually strongly positive. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 4, 2017 Report Share Posted November 4, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2017 The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November. In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs. Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months. We will see soon enough if I've really found something here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2017 Report Share Posted November 4, 2017 The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November. In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs. Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months. We will see soon enough if I've really found something here. I'm pretty excited for this winter. Didn't even get this type of cold until December last year. (Let alone any snow) Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2017 This is an updated table for the NPS which includes the years not shown in the original post. I am eventually going to use the reanalysis data to calculate the monthly values back to 1900., The original post includes data back to 1948. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2017 The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so. Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted November 6, 2017 Report Share Posted November 6, 2017 The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so. Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon. Yes. Lets keep the NE Pacific visiting the dispensaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2017 The first week of November checks in with +4.65 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 The first week of November checks in with +4.65 What is the index right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 What is the index right now? It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter. Here is the composite map for November through the 14th. If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter. Here is the composite map for November through the 14th. If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point. When do you think the "shift" will occur? And hopefully reach into California. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 I think December will briefly venture into that territory. Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy. There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though. For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Anything is better than this. @MJVentrice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Anything is better than this. @MJVentrice That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely. Major AR scenario for the BC Coast. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely. Major AR scenario for the BC Coast. And possible record maximums across the West Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted November 20, 2017 Report Share Posted November 20, 2017 I think December will briefly venture into that territory. Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy. There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though. For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event.Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted November 20, 2017 Report Share Posted November 20, 2017 Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1. Last winter cold air outbreaks in the PacificNW coincided with the shift in the jet stream south in California resulting in great AR events. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted November 21, 2017 Report Share Posted November 21, 2017 We need 60% to pass this into law and force nature follow our instructions. Get on board people. Jim could start attacking naysayers on Twitter soon... very effective! Throw in a bad bill nobody in Congress reads that sends money to some dumb UN program and further "override" our Constitution then we got ourselves a solid winner on nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Can we get an update? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Can we get an update?Just calculate it yourself. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just calculate it yourself. That's not very polite. I don't want an update on the number -- an update on what he thinks his own index indicates moving forward. This is where Jim really shines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Can we get an update? The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS. November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948. The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were... 19481956196119711978198519902013 Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record. None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW. Pretty compelling stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS. November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948. The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were... 19481956196119711978198519902013 Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record. None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW. Pretty compelling stuff. 2013 being there worries me a little, given December is looking like a 2013 carbon copy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 2013 being there worries me a little, given December is looking like a 2013 carbon copy.We had arctic air in early December 2013. Eugene fell to -10F. This one is looking pretty different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 We had arctic air in early December 2013. Eugene fell to -10F. This one is looking pretty different. I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.It's definitely the same, sans differences. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013. The area of blocking in Oct / Nov this year was quite a bit further west than in 2013. As a result I expect the timing of when the blocking is in a favorable position during the winter will be different than that winter. The important point is the winter 2013-14 had extreme blocking and that was foretold by the high Oct / Nov NPS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Man, grudges are held onto HARD around here. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 Man, grudges are held onto HARD around here. It's okay. Water off a duck's back really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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