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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index

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#201
westcoastexpat

Posted 03 December 2017 - 06:29 PM

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Man, grudges are held onto HARD around here.  :lol:

 

:lol:  :lol:

 

It's okay. Water off a duck's back really.



#202
happ

Posted 03 December 2017 - 09:36 PM

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The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 

 

That 1990 arctic airmass penetrated well into California and was the first time I recorded a freezing temp/ ice formed on the pool where I lived. Great memories.



#203
Black Hole

Posted 05 December 2017 - 02:36 PM

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#204
westcoastexpat

Posted 05 December 2017 - 02:57 PM

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.


in before Phil asks you to calculate it yourself

#205
wx_statman

Posted 06 December 2017 - 03:29 PM

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Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 

 

Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.

 

Yeah, I know I saw some all-time records from Jan 1959. They were either in SE Colorado or nearby areas of KS/OK/NM/TX. Pueblo was close....hit -28 on the 4th. Only -31 on 2/1/1951 and -29 on 1/28/1948 were colder. 

 

FYI if you're interested...Boise City, in the OK panhandle, set its all-time record low of -24 on 1/4/1959. Just ran across that reading while looking up numbers for a different post.  



#206
snow_wizard

Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:53 PM

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.

 

I have a lot of faith in this index when it's high in October and / or November.  I'm betting we score big somewhere in the late Dec to late Jan period.


  • Geos likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#207
OKwx2k4

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:03 PM

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FYI if you're interested...Boise City, in the OK panhandle, set its all-time record low of -24 on 1/4/1959. Just ran across that reading while looking up numbers for a different post.


I'm from Oklahoma and didn't know this one. Thank you.

#208
WeatherArchive

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:36 AM

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.

Willing to bet this will all flip over to the proper sweet spot with the Kona low of your dreams come March/April and we will all be asking what would've happened if this came in December/January?



#209
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:54 AM

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I'm from Oklahoma and didn't know this one. Thank you.

 

What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#210
snow_wizard

Posted 17 December 2017 - 12:21 PM

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Looking like my index is going to prove itself!


  • Black Hole and Canadian guy like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#211
BLI snowman

Posted 17 December 2017 - 01:16 PM

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What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing. 

 

Isn't it 1899? -17 at OKC is pretty good.



#212
Black Hole

Posted 17 December 2017 - 03:24 PM

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Up to this point this winter has featured extreme blocking, even if not in the right place. All of that looks to change next week with cold air pouring into the west. 


  • Phil and Front Ranger like this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#213
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 December 2017 - 11:03 PM

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Looking like my index is going to prove itself!

 

Something good had better come soon! Socal has been almost completely rainless this entire fall and has been one of the driest falls on record down here and a horrible fire season for Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.



#214
westcoastexpat

Posted 12 March 2018 - 07:05 AM

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Are there any tweaks to the index that you're considering for next winter?



#215
snow_wizard

Posted 13 March 2018 - 08:19 PM

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Are there any tweaks to the index that you're considering for next winter?

 

Not really.  If you look at this past winter Dec and Feb were pretty decent.  January really spoiled the winter average.  Besides...the only time the index is really conclusive is with seasons that have big positive anoms in the autumn.  The index did a pretty good job of foretelling major GOA ridging during a large part of the winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#216
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:42 PM

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What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing.

I hadn't been over here in awhile but I'd say December 1983 in terms of just sheer oppression from cold that seemed unending and then the repeat weaker blast following it in mid-January '84. I've listened to stories about it and read the PDF obs forms from then and I think it was pretty special.

2010-11 will probably hold the distinguishing honor of literally being the most extreme bi-polar winter in terms of statistics that I've ever lived through. I don't really know how to surpass the experience of every type of weather in 2 months time. New Years tornadoes to a post-blizzard all-time record low of -31 and an all time record high of 83 within 7 days. Winter total snow 33". It will be hard to top that in my lifetime.
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#217
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 March 2018 - 11:46 PM

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Isn't it 1899? -17 at OKC is pretty good.


1899 is pretty famous as well. It's in my top 10 that I'd like to live through.
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