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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index


snow_wizard

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The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?

Some renegade observers have recently been toying with the idea that weather *may* be complicated.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?

 

October 1949 was actually strongly positive.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November.  In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs.  Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months.  We will see soon enough if I've really found something here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November.  In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs.  Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months.  We will see soon enough if I've really found something here.

 

I'm pretty excited for this winter. 

Didn't even get this type of cold until December last year. (Let alone any snow)

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is an updated table for the NPS which includes the years not shown in the original post.  I am eventually going to use the reanalysis data to calculate the monthly values back to 1900.,  The original post includes data back to 1948.

post-222-0-58008500-1509866118_thumb.jpg

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so.  Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Guest Dome Buster

The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so.  Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon.

 

Yes.  Lets keep the NE Pacific visiting the dispensaries.

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What is the index right now?

 

It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. 

 

We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter.  Here is the composite map for November through the 14th.  If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point.

post-222-0-49774300-1510887737_thumb.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. 

 

We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter.  Here is the composite map for November through the 14th.  If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point.

 

When do you think the "shift" will occur?  And hopefully reach into California.

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I think December will briefly venture into that territory.  Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy.  There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though.  For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Anything is better than this.

 

@MJVentrice

 

That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely.  Major AR scenario for the BC Coast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely.  Major AR scenario for the BC Coast.

 

And possible record maximums across the West Coast.

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I think December will briefly venture into that territory.  Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy.  There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though.  For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event.

Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1.

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Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1.

 

Last winter cold air outbreaks in the PacificNW coincided with the shift in the jet stream south in California resulting in great AR events.

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We need 60% to pass this into law and force nature follow our instructions.  Get on board people.   Jim could start attacking naysayers on Twitter soon... very effective!  

Throw in a bad bill nobody in Congress reads that sends money to some dumb UN program and further "override" our Constitution then we got ourselves a solid winner on nature.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Can we get an update?

 

The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 

 

2013 being there worries me a little, given December is looking like a 2013 carbon copy.

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We had arctic air in early December 2013. Eugene fell to -10F. This one is looking pretty different.

 

I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.

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I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.

It's definitely the same, sans differences.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.

 

The area of blocking in Oct / Nov this year was quite a bit further west than in 2013.  As a result I expect the timing of when the blocking is in a favorable position during the winter will be different than that winter.  The important point is the winter 2013-14 had extreme blocking and that was foretold by the high Oct / Nov NPS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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