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Winter Predictions

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#101
snow_wizard

Posted 10 November 2017 - 06:56 PM

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When was the last time we saw a situation like that occur?

 

The last really good one here was December 1974.  Not sure about up your way.  The King of them all was Dec 1924.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#102
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 November 2017 - 07:16 PM

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The last really good one here was December 1974. Not sure about up your way. The King of them all was Dec 1924.

Interesting. Both of those months produced little to no snow up this way.

#103
snow_wizard

Posted 11 November 2017 - 12:58 AM

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Interesting. Both of those months produced little to no snow up this way.

 

Dry air must have moved in too quickly up there.  The Dec 1924 event was epic here.  A foot of snow in my area followed by brutal cold that lasted for many days.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#104
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 November 2017 - 09:01 AM

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The last really good one here was December 1974. Not sure about up your way. The King of them all was Dec 1924.


I thought the late December, 2003 one was an AR that turned to snow at the tail end.

#105
ShawniganLake

Posted 11 November 2017 - 12:36 PM

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My forecast for SW British Columbia



Although there were a few mixed results with the analog packages, there is a very strong signal for a below average winter with well above average snowfall. Overall for the DJF period I am going with a mean temperature 1.0 to 1.5C below average with snowfall 150% of normal. (125-175% first flake to last flake). I would expect a minimum of 2 arctic intrusions, possibly more, and at least one of them being a notable event. ( Widespread low temps below -10C).

December is likely to be the second coldest month of the winter. Mean temp 1 to 1.5C below average. Snowfall most likely well above normal. There were a few years in my analogs that saw December end up fairly mild. In these instances we saw major cold and snow occur in January.

January will likely be the coldest month of the winter. Mean temperature 1.5 to 2.0C below average. Again there is a strong signal for above average snowfall but I believe December is slightly more likely to be a major snow month.

February will likely see temperatures start to moderate, possibly still chilly, but monthly mean should be closer to average. ~0.5C below average. Snowfall likely to be near to slightly above normal, but I believe February is our most likely month to be snowless. My thinking is that the troughing will be centered farther east this month. If we do see cold and snow it is likely to be more of a glancing shot, but that could open the door to a February 2014 type of snowfall.
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#106
snow_wizard

Posted 11 November 2017 - 05:09 PM

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I thought the late December, 2003 one was an AR that turned to snow at the tail end.

 

It might have been down your way, but not up here.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#107
Jesse

Posted 11 November 2017 - 08:49 PM

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I thought the late December, 2003 one was an AR that turned to snow at the tail end.

 

You might be thinking of 11/19/03. I'm not sure it that would classify as a true AR, though. Definitely a strong baroclinic band.



#108
snow_wizard

Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:02 PM

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You might be thinking of 11/19/03. I'm not sure it that would classify as a true AR, though. Definitely a strong baroclinic band.

 

That one was interesting.  Could have been really wild if it had been later in the cold season.  Usually baroclinic bands are also ARs.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#109
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:19 PM

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You might be thinking of 11/19/03. I'm not sure it that would classify as a true AR, though. Definitely a strong baroclinic band.


It was definitely an Arctic air mass hitting us during an AR. I distinctly remember torrential rainfall for 2 days as the temp kept gradually lowering. It was the very end of December of 2003.

#110
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:27 PM

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December 1919 and 1924 were very similar here. All of NW Oregon had 18-24" of snow going into the 1919 blast. About 8-12" going into the 1924 blast.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#111
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:28 PM

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It was definitely an Arctic air mass hitting us during an AR. I distinctly remember torrential rainfall for 2 days as the temp kept gradually lowering. It was the very end of December of 2003.

 

No that was cold air being drawn into the backside of a departing low. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#112
BLI snowman

Posted 12 November 2017 - 11:43 PM

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It was definitely an Arctic air mass hitting us during an AR. I distinctly remember torrential rainfall for 2 days as the temp kept gradually lowering. It was the very end of December of 2003.

 

Maybe thinking of December 29, 2003 which was another rain to snow event for the Willamette Valley.



#113
Front Ranger

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:25 PM

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GFS and ensembles generally want to blowtorch the entire West, while the mid/long range pattern on the latest Euro and EPS has the warmth centered more towards the middle of the country. Either way, looks like the NE is in for some very cool weather over the next couple of weeks.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#114
Phil

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:24 PM

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GFS and ensembles generally want to blowtorch the entire West, while the mid/long range pattern on the latest Euro and EPS has the warmth centered more towards the middle of the country. Either way, looks like the NE is in for some very cool weather over the next couple of weeks.


We're due. Been an epic torch since the super niño.
  • Front Ranger likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#115
snow_wizard

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:33 PM

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We're due. Been an epic torch since the super niño.

 

The torch we had during the Nino was inane.  I absolutely hated it.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#116
Front Ranger

Posted 15 November 2017 - 05:40 PM

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Thanks. Eager to see how November unfolds.

 

If you held a gun to my head now and demanded I provide a prediction for the month (this happens a lot), I'd lean towards it turning pretty warm for the West the second half of November, leading to an above normal month overall.

 

 

I'm torn on it, too. I'm almost positive December will be cold for most of the northern tier, but I could easily see it favoring the East more than the West if things head in a 1989/1962/1995 direction over the next few weeks. At least for the first half of December. 2/3 of those winters were cold across most of the country in January, but Jan 1990 was mostly a blowtorch.

 

One thing going against the 1989 analog is solar. 1995 and 1962 to a lesser degree are better fits there.

 

Circling back to these thoughts. Most guidance is indicating that the somewhat warm pattern that has started developing for the West over the past week will intensify and spread the second half of the month.

 

Attached File  7dTDeptUS.png   104.75KB   0 downloads

 

If the long range EPS and GEFS are to be believed, there is very little chance that most of the West ends up cool or even close to normal overall for November. Let's assume that plays out.

 

This would narrow down my primary analogs going forward to: 1954, 1962, 1970, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2007. Rolling those years forward to December yields:

 

Attached File  dec.png   448.36KB   0 downloads

 

Worth noting, though, that while the overall composite is warm, a couple of the years were not for much of the West: 1970 and 2007. 1954 was normal-ish.

 

Rolling the analogs further forward to January reveals a cold look for much of the country, with the main cold likely centered West.

 

Attached File  jan.png   453.29KB   0 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#117
Phil

Posted 15 November 2017 - 06:29 PM

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Great analysis, man. Nice call on the November warm-up too.

All of those years had a coherent -PNA episode at some point during the midwinter period, so that's a pretty strong signal there as well.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#118
Front Ranger

Posted 15 November 2017 - 08:28 PM

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Great analysis, man. Nice call on the November warm-up too.

All of those years had a coherent -PNA episode at some point during the midwinter period, so that's a pretty strong signal there as well.

 

Thanks. Mid winter is certainly looking more promising for major cold chances across the CONUS. 

 

For our PNW friends, I think it's worth mentioning that only one of the analog years saw any cold weather of note before Christmas (1970, which featured a little cold snap with some lowland snow at the beginning of December, and then a more moderate cold wave with some lowland snow the week leading up to Christmas). 1995 did feature a couple minor cold spells, and 2007 had several bouts with chilly, low snow levels. The rest of the years were mostly warm the first half of the month, and somewhat cooler the second half.

 

But then in January, several years had significant cold waves the first half of the month (1963, 1971, 1982), and then a couple delivered later in the month (1963 again, 1996). 1955 and 2008 both had chilly weather with some lowland snow and near-misses for major cold. The only complete dud was Jan 1990...but then went on to probably the best overall February for the PNW lowlands in the past several decades, as far as persistent cold and snow.

 

So if the next few weeks do end up torching, there's plenty of reason to be hopeful for good things later.  :)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#119
Kayla

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:02 AM

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While the SW looks to clearly run above average for the month of November, it's pretty clear that the northern tier will end up below average for the month. I'm curious what the analogs pick up on for D/J/F with a warm November in the SW but a cold northern tier? I'm still liking 1996 IMO...

 

Attached File  Screen Shot 2017-11-16 at 9.56.03 AM.png   744.05KB   0 downloads

 

 

 


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#120
Front Ranger

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:47 AM

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While the SW looks to clearly run above average for the month of November, it's pretty clear that the northern tier will end up below average for the month. I'm curious what the analogs pick up on for D/J/F with a warm November in the SW but a cold northern tier? I'm still liking 1996 IMO...

 

Looking at the modeled pattern going forward, my guess would be only parts of MT/ND will end up below normal by end of month. Probably a much smaller area of below normal anomalies across the northern tier than what you see now.

 

That being said, 1996 did have a similar temp pattern across the U.S. to what we're seeing this month. It was high on my original list of analogs and I still think it's solid, though I'd put some other years ahead of it at this point.

 

Attached File  1996.png   419.46KB   0 downloads

 

1970, 1995, and 2007 were also cooler across the northern tier, with a similar temp profile.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#121
Front Ranger

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:52 AM

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FWIW, if you just roll those 4 years forward, this is what you get for Dec and Jan.

 

Attached File  cd2603_300b_503_1800_f4c0_78a8_cbbf_110e.319.10.49.0.prcp.png   427.9KB   2 downloads

 

Attached File  cd2603_300b_503_1800_f4c0_78a8_cbbf_110e.319.10.51.41.prcp.png   436.64KB   2 downloads

 

Almost everything points to a very cold winter in the northern Plains, and probably northern Rockies as well.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#122
Kayla

Posted 16 November 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Looking at the modeled pattern going forward, my guess would be only parts of MT/ND will end up below normal by end of month. Probably a much smaller area of below normal anomalies across the northern tier than what you see now.

 

That being said, 1996 did have a similar temp pattern across the U.S. to what we're seeing this month. It was high on my original list of analogs and I still think it's solid, though I'd put some other years ahead of it at this point.

 

attachicon.gif1996.png

 

1970, 1995, and 2007 were also cooler across the northern tier, with a similar temp profile.

 

Good stuff, thanks! I don't see a way except for maybe far western MT overcoming a -10 to -15 temp anomalies even with the going forecasts though. I would expect the Nov 1996 map will end up pretty darn close to reality come month end this year.

 

Interesting enough, 1970, 1995 and 2007 were all coming off of weak to moderate Niños the previous winters. The 1996 analog is the only second year Niña on that list...


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#123
Jesse

Posted 16 November 2017 - 10:43 AM

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Looking at the modeled pattern going forward, my guess would be only parts of MT/ND will end up below normal by end of month. Probably a much smaller area of below normal anomalies across the northern tier than what you see now.

That being said, 1996 did have a similar temp pattern across the U.S. to what we're seeing this month. It was high on my original list of analogs and I still think it's solid, though I'd put some other years ahead of it at this

1970, 1995, and 2007 were also cooler across the northern tier, with a similar temp profile.


I think you are still playing the torchy November up a bit. Right now the GFS ensembles hint that we could go back to near or below average around the 25th, after 4-5 days of pretty solid torching.

#124
Front Ranger

Posted 16 November 2017 - 11:12 AM

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I think you are still playing the torchy November up a bit. Right now the GFS ensembles hint that we could go back to near or below average around the 25th, after 4-5 days of pretty solid torching.

 

I'm just going by the overall guidance for the next 10-15 days. It's been painting a pretty warm picture for the vast majority of the West. PNW coastal regions probably have the best chance of not torching at times over that period, but as of now, it still looks above normal overall.

 

The main thing is that this is big picture stuff...hard to say if PDX or OLM or any other given station will finish the month cool or warm. But the analog-led idea that the majority of the West would turn warm, and the East turn cool, appears to be working out.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#125
Front Ranger

Posted 16 November 2017 - 11:17 AM

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Good stuff, thanks! I don't see a way except for maybe far western MT overcoming a -10 to -15 temp anomalies even with the going forecasts though. I would expect the Nov 1996 map will end up pretty darn close to reality come month end this year.

 

Interesting enough, 1970, 1995 and 2007 were all coming off of weak to moderate Niños the previous winters. The 1996 analog is the only second year Niña on that list...

 

Yeah, areas of west of the divide are probably most likely to end up warm, at least in MT. But it looks to me like WY, CO, UT, ID, and probably OR/WA will all end up warmer than 1996.

 

Of course, the exact lines of anomalies over a calendar month don't really matter. What matters is the large-scale evolution of the North American pattern over the past few weeks. That's mainly what I'm looking at now for leading analogs.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#126
Front Ranger

Posted 23 November 2017 - 02:37 PM

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I'd say the Western torch has officially verified. Interesting to see the Cascades below normal in a sea of warmth.

 

Attached File  7dTDeptUS.png   108.34KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#127
MossMan

Posted 23 November 2017 - 07:50 PM

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My official forecast...Olympia north will get blasted the week of Christmas that will turn into a 1949-50 massive event.

#128
Black Hole

Posted 25 November 2017 - 09:43 AM

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No sign of winter in Utah anytime soon. The warmth will slow down a little bit, but no real winter weather coming anytime soon.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5"

Total: 13.8"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#129
Front Ranger

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:24 PM

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If the long range EPS and GEFS are to be believed, there is very little chance that most of the West ends up cool or even close to normal overall for November. Let's assume that plays out.

 

This would narrow down my primary analogs going forward to: 1954, 1962, 1970, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2007. Rolling those years forward to December yields:

 

attachicon.gifdec.png

 

Thanks. Mid winter is certainly looking more promising for major cold chances across the CONUS. 

 

For our PNW friends, I think it's worth mentioning that only one of the analog years saw any cold weather of note before Christmas (1970, which featured a little cold snap with some lowland snow at the beginning of December, and then a more moderate cold wave with some lowland snow the week leading up to Christmas). 1995 did feature a couple minor cold spells, and 2007 had several bouts with chilly, low snow levels. The rest of the years were mostly warm the first half of the month, and somewhat cooler the second half.

 

Looks at this point that this analog composite moving forward into December is still solid. Overall guidance is favoring a warm west/cold east first half of December.

 

Attached File  post-949-0-15240400-1510796688.png   448.36KB   2 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#130
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 28 November 2017 - 09:12 AM

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Looks at this point that this analog composite moving forward into December is still solid. Overall guidance is favoring a warm west/cold east first half of December.

 

attachicon.gifpost-949-0-15240400-1510796688.png

 

I like your analogs.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#131
Front Ranger

Posted 28 November 2017 - 09:31 AM

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I like your analogs.

 

Certainly plenty of snow for your area with several of them, especially Jan-Mar.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 28 November 2017 - 09:42 AM

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Certainly plenty of snow for your area with several of them, especially Jan-Mar.

 

95-96 was actually a really good year for foothills snow too. A ton in late January, and then a lot again in late February. I remember going sledding at Silver Falls in late Feb' 96' and there was about 18" on the ground. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#133
Phil

Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:40 PM

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Specifics aside, I'm happy with how these analogs have captured the overall system state progression.

No matter how I tweak things, I keep getting a warm November/December and a cold January/February.

I'm skeptical of the December aggregate, but the state of the subtropical Pacific on that image is highly suggestive of a PV breakdown that month, probably sometime around the holidays verbatim. We'll see.

Individual months, October - February:

C32D0D2D-7A25-41D0-9859-D78090B0D900_zps62FA459B-5659-4D86-BEC2-E757F9C5F9B3_zpsB2BDC011-3A27-4F2F-9938-127D04897BDC_zpsCD57BBB2-AA12-4C60-8BAE-6678F9B62144_zps262D23B0-1BF0-4B6F-900B-631F7DC6A107_zps


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#134
Jesse

Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:12 PM

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What's scary about those analog years is that all of the ones that have occurred in the last two decades featured pretty forgettable winters in the lowlands.



#135
Deweydog

Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:50 PM

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What's scary about those analog years is that all of the ones that have occurred in the last two decades featured pretty forgettable winters in the lowlands.


Luckily this winter has a Jimpossible to miss money back guarantee. Restrictions apply.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#136
Front Ranger

Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:17 PM

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What's scary about those analog years is that all of the ones that have occurred in the last two decades featured pretty forgettable winters in the lowlands.


2011-12 had some memorable moments many places. Just not Portland metro.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#137
Phil

Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:26 PM

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What's scary about those analog years is that all of the ones that have occurred in the last two decades featured pretty forgettable winters in the lowlands.


Yeah, but there was a method to my madness in terms of which years I blended. We're far enough lagged in the QBO cycle that we'll probably avoid the +EPO/-PNA slop-fest until February.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#138
Jesse

Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:29 PM

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Yeah, but there was a method to my madness in terms of which years I blended. We're far enough lagged in the QBO cycle that we'll probably avoid the +EPO/-PNA slop-fest until February.


That would be nice.

What the heck was going on in January 2006?

#139
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 29 November 2017 - 05:04 PM

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That would be nice.

What the heck was going on in January 2006?


I remember a cold January spell in Eugene in 2006. Bit of snow then got down to like 15 degrees the next day.

#140
Deweydog

Posted 29 November 2017 - 05:11 PM

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I remember a cold January spell in Eugene in 2006. Bit of snow then got down to like 15 degrees the next day.


That seems very unlikely.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#141
BLI snowman

Posted 29 November 2017 - 05:19 PM

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I remember a cold January spell in Eugene in 2006. Bit of snow then got down to like 15 degrees the next day.

 

That was 2007.



#142
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 29 November 2017 - 06:49 PM

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That was 2007.


Ah, I was a year off, then.

#143
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2017 - 06:36 PM

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I think 1956 has to be kept as an analog.  It was one of the few blocky La Nina winter to have a -QBO, and I also realized it had a big persistent ridge right over head in late November.  The inversion from that contributed to that November being a bit on the cold side.  It was also one of the better matches to this year as far as high surface pressure over the NE Pacific in the autumn.  In that year the big late November ridge retrograded to allow a nice blast in early Dec.  The timing that year was just a bit different.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:55 AM

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2011-12 had some memorable moments many places. Just not Portland metro.

 

Don't get me started on how amazing....Never had a minimum below 23 that winter though...Pretty amazing considering how much snow fell. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#145
Front Ranger

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:02 PM

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2017-18 Winter Outlook

 

December

 

Strong signal for cold across the northern tier of the U.S., with the cold anomalies centered in the northern plains/upper Midwest. Warm across much of the southern tier. Anomalously high heights over the Aleutians, with the polar vortex likely spending some time in northern Canada. -1 to -3 anomalies predicted in the PNW, with northern areas likely to see the greatest cold. Decent chance this is the coldest month of the winter for New England.

 

Precipitation:

 

There is an above average chance that this winter ends up drier than normal for much of the West Coast and northern plains. Near normal precip for the Great Basin/Rockies, and wetter than normal storm track along southern plains and lower Midwest, which should be the battle ground between warmth/cold.

 

Time to check in and see how December went. 

 

The northern tier did end up with the bulk of cold, although it was not centered in the northern plains/upper Midwest until the second half of the month. New England was the coldest part of the country...let's see if this ends up their coldest month.

 

Attached File  MonthTDeptUS.png   107.32KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  14dTDeptUS.png   102.26KB   0 downloads

 

Most of the PNW also ended up below normal, with every I-5 station colder than normal, ranging from -.6 at SEA and Seattle WFO to -2.9 at EUG. -1 to -3 ended up verifying well overall.

 

Precip-wise, the West Coast is running below normal overall, while the storm train in the southern plains and lower Midwest has started to emerge. Will be interesting to see if these trends continue.

 

Attached File  MonthPNormUS.png   110.59KB   0 downloads


  • Kayla likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#146
Kayla

Posted 01 January 2018 - 06:23 PM

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Time to check in and see how December went. 

 

The northern tier did end up with the bulk of cold, although it was not centered in the northern plains/upper Midwest until the second half of the month. New England was the coldest part of the country...let's see if this ends up their coldest month.

 

attachicon.gifMonthTDeptUS.png

 

attachicon.gif14dTDeptUS.png

 

Most of the PNW also ended up below normal, with every I-5 station colder than normal, ranging from -.6 at SEA and Seattle WFO to -2.9 at EUG. -1 to -3 ended up verifying well overall.

 

Precip-wise, the West Coast is running below normal overall, while the storm train in the southern plains and lower Midwest has started to emerge. Will be interesting to see if these trends continue.

 

attachicon.gifMonthPNormUS.png

 

I obviously knew precip was well above average here but that last graphic really shows just how above average the whole state of MT was and how incredibly dry the west coast and SW was.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#147
Front Ranger

Posted 01 January 2018 - 07:41 PM

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I obviously knew precip was well above average here but that last graphic really shows just how above average the whole state of MT was and how incredibly dry the west coast and SW was.

 

Yup, crazy difference. Storm track through the Southwest has been completely absent.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#148
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:40 AM

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It was one of the driest falls on record for southern CA. We could not buy a decent cold front passage during this time period, because the storms weren't tracking through the SW just as Front Ranger mentioned above.

 

It is looking like our first major rain event of the season will be this coming week from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.