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Powerful October 22nd-25th Great Lakes Autumn Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 02:04 PM

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We have been tracking a rather complex, yet, potentially an increasingly impacting late October storm system phasing across the S Midwest/GL's region for early this week.  Models have been having a very difficult time trying to figure what will happen with the northern and southern energy but they are now coming into good agreement that this system will be a large impacting storm.  

 

Let's dive in...

 

Latest trends have been NW with the SLP coming out of the south as of late and now bring in the heavier band of rain into far NE/E IL....as this storm phases completely and becomes a closed low circulation, it may potentially retrograde back west across N MI Monday night into Tuesday.

 

Not only will it be windy and wet, there may also be the first flakes of snow flying in the U.P. and parts of WI.  Very interesting storm system to say the least.

 

Here are the latest NAM model runs...

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_22.png

 

 

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 


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#2
Niko

Posted 22 October 2017 - 02:57 PM

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From NOAA:

 

Widespread rainfall expected throughout Monday night as lower
Michigan becomes the pivot point for strengthening mid level
deformation in the presence of persistent fgen and large scale
divergence. Rainfall amounts carry the greatest uncertainty in this
event, with a strong dependence on both placement and longevity of
the greatest axis of ascent. High confidence exists in a widespread
swath of 1 to 2 inches with this event, but with diminishing
confidence in witnessing a higher end stripe of 2+ inches. Certainly
a plausible scenario exists to see higher amounts given the overall
setup, a solution space supported for several cycles now by the
ECMWF/Canadian. 12z NAM is trending in this direction, depicting a
much greater overall response now. Outside of the GFS, model
consensus points to the higher rainfall amounts across the Tri-
cities, or roughly anchored along and enhanced by the expected
frontal positioning. 6 hour flash flood guidance on average hovers
near 2.5 inches. With this being a long duration event and still
more than 24-36 hours out from any potentially impactful amounts,
will hold off on issuance of a flood watch.

 

Man, if this was snow.



#3
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 04:15 PM

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Radar trends seem to agree with the NW trend over the past 24-48 hours and it looks like those heavier radar returns in C/S IL are heading right towards Chitown...

 

Man, only if this were winter...this storm is going to be a big fat tease of what we can expect this cold season...


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#4
Niko

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:05 PM

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Radar trends seem to agree with the NW trend over the past 24-48 hours and it looks like those heavier radar returns in C/S IL are heading right towards Chitown...

 

Man, only if this were winter...this storm is going to be a big fat tease of what we can expect this cold season...

Chicago (Includes your pl. Tom) points eastward towards Jasters locale and westMJim would have been the shutdown point. Its only a matter of time b4 we start talking about these types of storms in terms of hvy snow accumulations.


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#5
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:15 PM

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Both 00z NAM's are phasing this storm quicker and resulting in a deeper storm over MI....this thing will look like a beast come tomorrow's visible satellite imagery...


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#6
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:29 PM

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With 21 days of October 2017 in the record books GRR mean temperature is 60.1° (not including today) and that is good for a departure of +7.4° With a temperature of 75° today is the 3rd day in a row of mid to upper 70’s and 6 days where the highs have been in the upper 60’s to upper 70’s
On average the last day of 75 or warmer here in Grand Rapids is October 13th with a range from September 15th 1981 to November 6th 1975 so we so we are still within that range. The average last day of 70° is October 25th with a range of October 1st 1925 to November 23rd 1931.

That '81 stat confirms my memory of it being a cold autumn leading into a top 5 harsh winter!

#7
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:41 PM

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Per GRR AFD:

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Main short term fcst concerns involve determining potential for
heavy rain Monday through Monday night into Tuesday.

The slow moving cold front moving in from the west will cause
showers to continue to develop from west to east across our fcst
area late this afternoon through tonight. This notion is supported
by rgnl radar trends, sref pops and a consensus of latest higher
resolution guidance such as the 3km nam.

A strengthening area of low pressure will move north and bring
portions of our area heavy rain Monday afternoon through Monday
night. We continue to prefer the 12Z ecmwf and ecmwf trends for
several runs now that have been consistent in showing that a
southern stream disturbance currently over the panhandle of Texas
will strengthen as it moves east.

It will then eventually get pulled north by the upper low/amplifying
upper trough over our region tomorrow. This leads to development
of a stronger sfc low and potential for heavy rain near to east
of US-131 tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night where very
strong mid level pva will develop.

The area near to mainly east of a line from Mt. Pleasant to
Kalamazoo is most favored for highest rainfall totals of around
1.5-3 inches Monday through Monday night into Tuesday. Highest
end totals within that range will most likely occur over our
eastern fcst area around KLAN and KJXN as suggested by the 12Z
ecmwf.

Given the strength of moisture transport there Monday afternoon
and evening I would not be surprised to see locally higher totals
of around 4-5 inches for this event in our eastern fcst area. Our
going flood watch headline will remain unchanged. We considered
dropping Osceola and Mecosta counties from the watch but felt it`s
a close enough call to keep those counties in it at this time.

It will be windy and cooler Tuesday with numerous showers with the
upper low and trof axis overhead. Showers will linger Tuesday
night.

#8
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:48 PM

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Both 00z NAM's are phasing this storm quicker and resulting in a deeper storm over MI....this thing will look like a beast come tomorrow's visible satellite imagery...


Did you see the crazy loop-de-loop on the GEM? Does the circle tour of the LP of MI. Gonna be interesting to see if any of the crazier model solutions have merit?

#9
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 06:52 PM

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@ Niko

I see you Detroit area!

From GRR:


.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Showers will spread into the area from the west through this
evening, with coverage of rain filling in overnight. This looks to
bring about a half-inch of rain to west Michigan by about 8AM Monday
morning. Rain may be moderate in intensity at times, but is not
expected to cause flooding overnight.

There should be a brief decrease in shower activity Monday morning
before another round of rain develops over Lower Michigan Monday
afternoon and lasts into Tuesday. Most locations look to receive at
least an additional inch of rainfall, but a north-to-south
orientated swath of heavier rain, with amounts of possibly 3 to 5
inches, is expected over the Lower Peninsula. At this time, it looks
like this heavier swath of rain will be located somewhere between
U.S. 131 and the Detroit-area.
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#10
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:00 PM

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00z NAM 12km...woah!  Quite the soaker heading for W MI!  Niko's area may get dry slotted...

 

 

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_22.png

 

 

3km...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#11
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:05 PM

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Always cool when you see 2 SLP's coming so near one another.


[attachment=14413:r03_ICast (2).gif]

#12
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:06 PM

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Lake Superior is going to be rockin' with wave action amid 60-70mph wind gusts!  Tuesday will be a windy and showery day around here with gusty N/NW winds.  I think a lot of trees will loose their leaves by the middle of this week.

 

@ Jaster, both NAM's are seeing the closed low retrograde westward across N MI....Kuddo's to the GGEM for seeing that trend first while a few days out...



#13
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:10 PM

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You could already see the comma head signature beginning on radar near AR/MO.  Gosh, these are encouraging signs to see systems like these coming out of the deep south.  Fantastic moisture transport along with a phasing neg tilted trough....#perfection



#14
Niko

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:16 PM

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@ Niko

I see you Detroit area!

From GRR:


.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Showers will spread into the area from the west through this
evening, with coverage of rain filling in overnight. This looks to
bring about a half-inch of rain to west Michigan by about 8AM Monday
morning. Rain may be moderate in intensity at times, but is not
expected to cause flooding overnight.

There should be a brief decrease in shower activity Monday morning
before another round of rain develops over Lower Michigan Monday
afternoon and lasts into Tuesday. Most locations look to receive at
least an additional inch of rainfall, but a north-to-south
orientated swath of heavier rain, with amounts of possibly 3 to 5
inches, is expected over the Lower Peninsula. At this time, it looks
like this heavier swath of rain will be located somewhere between
U.S. 131 and the Detroit-area.

We need these type of storm tracks down the road. Get ready for feet of snow.



#15
Niko

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:19 PM

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00z NAM 12km...woah!  Quite the soaker heading for W MI!  Niko's area may get dry slotted...

 

 

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_22.png

 

 

3km...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

Yep, I might be getting dry air pushing in killing off the moisture.



#16
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:38 PM

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Lake Superior is going to be rockin' with wave action amid 60-70mph wind gusts! Tuesday will be a windy and showery day around here with gusty N/NW winds. I think a lot of trees will loose their leaves by the middle of this week.

@ Jaster, both NAM's are seeing the closed low retrograde westward across N MI....Kuddo's to the GGEM for seeing that trend first while a few days out...

Kinda surprised at the NAM not following the GFS? Some say it's just a short range vs of that model. These bombing storms do tend to bend left of initially forecast track tho, so it looks to be happening with this as well. Why GRR was hugging the GFS is beyond me? Even their blended plan may be too far east. Great trend for your place though, especially in winter. You'd be high-fiving the hanging plants.

#17
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:39 PM

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Yeah, #Superior would be downright scary on a ship. Saw a vid of 20 ft swells and that was bad enough.

#18
Tom

Posted 22 October 2017 - 07:43 PM

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00z GFS has shifted NW and following the other models. Looks like the GGEM scored a coupe on this one.
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#19
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:24 AM

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Here is the RPM models output for our local area...get your canoe ready MI!

 

DM0CO1NWkAArN-z.jpg



#20
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:37 AM

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00z GFS has shifted NW and following the other models. Looks like the GGEM scored a coupe on this one.

 

GGEM led the way for sure, but EC had the right idea, yet just when you'd expect to see the GFS go gonzo with some outlandish over-amped mega-bomb...it's out to lunch  :rolleyes:

 

GRR admitted in their AFD that they normally base their forecast heavily weighted on the GFS, and apparently so does the CPC since they had all the heavy rain well east. Gotta believe there's internal pressure within the gov entities to rely on the American model(s), even tho the outcomes across SMI are stacking up to laughable levels so far this month. Of (3) systems to nail SWMI, the only thing that showed  up on any CPC 3-7d hazards map was high winds on the 15th. This will be the 3rd heavy rain situation that was never outlined for SWMI (shown east biased or just totally missed :huh: ).  


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#21
westMJim

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:52 AM

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This is going to be long but here is some of this morning’s discussions 1st on the rain for my area from the NWS Grand Rapids (note Grand Rapids has already received over 5” of rain this October already, The record for GRR for October is 8.32” in 1954) and then some on the winds and maybe snow in the UP.

Here is some of this morning discussion: “ HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST AND  
THERE NOW MAY BE A REDUCED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE US-127   
CORRIDOR AROUND LANSING AND JACKSON. WE WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN THE  
WATCH HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. IT IS LOOKING   
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A SIZABLE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD  
RECEIVE 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN, MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FROM THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT COMMUTES THIS   
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS   
THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO   
THE DAY TUESDAY, BOOSTING TOTALS EVEN FURTHER”

And off to the north here is some of the discussion from Marquette: “.WINDS: USING A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE WINDS, MOST SHORELINE   
AREAS AND THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 50MPH, WITH 60-  
70MPH GUSTS BETWEEN BETWEEN BIG BAY AND MUNISING OR GRAND MARAIS AND   
ALSO OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. THE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE OVER FAR   
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SHORELINE GUSTS MAY BE A LOWER AND   
AROUND AND E OF GRAND MARAIS WHERE, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE   
LOW, WINDS MAY BE MORE OUT OF THE SE. IF THE LOW TRACKS ARE   
CURRENTLY SHOWN, STRONG GUSTS OF POSSIBLY 45-55MPH WOULD EXTEND   
INLAND OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI, INCLUDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ESCANABA   
AREA. THESE PEAK WINDS WOULD BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z TUE,   
PARTICULARLY IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. WEAKER, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT   
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 06Z WED NEAR CENTRAL AND EASTERN   
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THESE   
WINDS WOULD QUITE LIKELY LEAD TO MANY TREES COMING DOWN IN THE MOST   
IMPACTED AREAS, LIKELY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.  
  
WAVES: WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 25FT  OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE   
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN LAKESHORE FLOODING AND   
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ON THE N SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW AND   
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR, PEAK   
WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 14-20FT, LEADING TO LAKESHORE FLOODING AND   
BEACH EROSION.  
  
SNOW: WITH THE SYSTEM NOW BEING MODELED AS MORE WRAPPED UP, COLDER   
AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER   
TERRAIN OF THE W HALF TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE   
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON   
COUNTIES WITH 2-4 INCHES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN   
THAT SINCE SOME PARAMETERS WILL BE NEAR BORDERLINE VALUES FOR SNOW   
AND TRACK/STRENGTH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE. SOME GUIDANCE   
SUGGESTED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES, EVEN AS FAR E AS OUR OFFICE   
IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP, BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH THOSE   
HIGH OF VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE SOME MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO   
SNOW. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE   

 


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#22
james1976

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:57 AM

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I can actually see the back edge of the cloud deck from this system if i look up just off to my east. Pretty cool.
Radar looks impressive.
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#23
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:59 AM

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Love when the maps light up the lakes with deep purple-you know it's serious stuff, but Whoa! at those waves  :o and hurricane gusts!

 

[attachment=14419:20171023 Lk Superior Storm warning.JPG]


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#24
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:06 AM

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High Rez NAM rapidly deepens the SLP from a 1000mb storm along the S MI/N IN border around 1:00pm, to 980mb in 16 hours (6:00am Tuesday) in N MI.  I love when systems bomb out like this producing ferocious winds and precip!

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_13.png

 

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_29.png


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#25
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:08 AM

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Love when the maps light up the lakes with deep purple-you know it's serious stuff, but Whoa! at those waves  :o and hurricane gusts!

 

attachicon.gif20171023 Lk Superior Storm warning.JPG

Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!


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#26
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:09 AM

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This one's focused further north with the high winds, due mostly to lack of winter time cold air. It's actually pretty early for such an amped GL's storm. November style storm about 3 wks early. Still, it's a very nasty morning here in St. Joseph with a huge contrast from when I left Marshall with zero drops and 62F to here with a driving NNE wind  moderate rain and 53F.  The CF didn't get as far east as thought but this would be a rockin system in winter. Hope it comes back in some form later. 

 

[attachment=14420:20171023 Intellicast 12hr CONUS map-for 2am Oct 24.jpg]


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#27
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:18 AM

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ORD has picked up .93" already from this system since yesterday which is actually a bit more than I thought we would get.  This system looked like it would be missing us to the east but last minute NW trends have given us an appreciable amount of precip thus far.



#28
james1976

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:31 AM

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High Rez NAM rapidly deepens the SLP from a 1000mb storm along the S MI/N IN border around 1:00pm, to 980mb in 16 hours (6:00am Tuesday) in N MI. I love when systems bomb out like this producing ferocious winds and precip!

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_13.png


nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_29.png

I see you snow flakes trying to mix in 😃
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#29
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:42 AM

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Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!

 

Only been a 4 decade interlude, what's the rush??  :lol:  Yeah, I can only hope you're right. So far, lookin' good

 

ORD has picked up .93" already from this system since yesterday which is actually a bit more than I thought we would get.  This system looked like it would be missing us to the east but last minute NW trends have given us an appreciable amount of precip thus far.

 

You have to include yby in that above post ya know??  ;)


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#30
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:46 AM

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Rain is knocking on my doorstep. It will be a rainy day on tap.


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#31
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:48 AM

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I know MQT said they were holding off on snow headlines, but these guys think it's worth showing snow falling over the western highlands so we may see some winter headlines yet. 

 

[attachment=14422:20171023 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-for 8pm Oct 24.jpg]


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#32
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Lots of dynamics with this system.


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#33
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!

 

Remember what Snowday said in their winter outlook for 2013-14?? It didn't really quite reach that level 4 yrs ago but maybe it is spot-on for this year! I won't complain on the delayed but not denied scenario  :lol:

 

[attachment=14423:Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg]


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#34
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:37 AM

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Lots of dynamics with this system.

 

Around MI, it's the storms that take a due north track that are the bombers! Per Tom's post, this would be a 30 mb in 24 hrs drop. For comparison with the MOAB's in Jan '78 that system dropped 40 mb in 24 hrs! Ofc, that had the added ingredient of super-chilled mid-winter arctic air to work with. So did Nov 8, 1913 white hurricane for that matter.



#35
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Around MI, it's the storms that take a due north track that are the bombers! Per Tom's post, this would be a 30 mb in 24 hrs drop. For comparison with the MOAB's in Jan '78 that system dropped 40 mb in 24 hrs! Ofc, that had the added ingredient of super-chilled mid-winter arctic air to work with. So did Nov 8, 1913 white hurricane for that matter.

"White Hurricane"....gotta like the way that sounds.



#36
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:53 AM

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N Lk Mich upgraded now to a Storm warning. And it's a long duration event. GGEM wants to loop the 990-->980-->990 mb Low around Lwr Mich for (30) hrs. OMG if this scenario played out in winter some places in the snowbelts would be buried worse than Jan '78!  Saw a Traverse area guy comment online about that storm. Said he lived out in the county and his neighbor lived on property near him and needed his help. He had to dig down through 10 ft of drifted snow to reach his neighbor's porch. When I first moved up there, the locals at my work said there was one mobile home park out in the county that was totally buried to the roof tops! 

 

[attachment=14424:20171023 NWS CWA hazards NMI.JPG]


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#37
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:58 AM

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I am in the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" but, could be in a "Flood Watch" later this afternoon. Most of the real, hvy stuff will be on my west.



#38
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 07:09 AM

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"White Hurricane"....gotta like the way that sounds.

 

https://en.wikipedia...s_Storm_of_1913

 

[attachment=14426:19131106 Surf map re-image.jpg]



#39
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 08:33 AM

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N Lk Mich upgraded now to a Storm warning. And it's a long duration event. GGEM wants to loop the 990-->980-->990 mb Low around Lwr Mich for (30) hrs. OMG if this scenario played out in winter some places in the snowbelts would be buried worse than Jan '78!  Saw a Traverse area guy comment online about that storm. Said he lived out in the county and his neighbor lived on property near him and needed his help. He had to dig down through 10 ft of drifted snow to reach his neighbor's porch. When I first moved up there, the locals at my work said there was one mobile home park out in the county that was totally buried to the roof tops! 

 

attachicon.gif20171023 NWS CWA hazards NMI.JPG

Unable to see your attachments for some reason...speaking of Traverse city, I think this place will be buried this season.  This year's LRC storm track thus far this season screams its going to be a good season around the GL's.  Wonder if snow records will be broken this season not only for amounts, but snow cover duration.


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#40
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 08:39 AM

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Wow, very interesting system.  This sorta jives with the storm I'm anticipating around the 11/11 period!  How about that?


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#41
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Unable to see your attachments for some reason...speaking of Traverse city, I think this place will be buried this season.  This year's LRC storm track thus far this season screams its going to be a good season around the GL's.  Wonder if snow records will be broken this season not only for amounts, but snow cover duration.

 

Yeah, lovely. I was trying to delete oldest page first and didn't realize after you delete one batch, it reverts to viewing your latest vs oldest. I kept clicking and deleted a whole page full of recent attachments.. :rolleyes:  (doubt I'll have time to restore 'em all tbh) 

 

Was posting on local SMI board that I truly feel good that this region (Kzoo/BC/Marshall) will see it's first Cat-5 storm (20+") in 40 yrs (you've had at least 2 in that time iirc), and that these records could/should be in play in order of descending likely-hood:

 

_ Peak snow depth

_ Seasonal total snowfall

_ Greatest single-storm total snowfall

_ Greatest single month total

 

With all this warmth and up and down temps, I'm not yet comfortable putting things like longevity of snowcover, days with lows below zero or lowest mean daily temps on the table. Not ruling them out, just need to see more real-time indicators. So far I've only got Peach pits, caterpillar hairs, and Squirrel's tails to go on.. :lol:


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#42
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 08:58 AM

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Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point:

 

[attachment=14427:20171023 CONUS flow at 300mb.jpg]

 

Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! 

 

Still two distinct centers..

 

[attachment=14428:20171023 CONUS MSP and wind barbs.jpg]

 

 


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#43
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 09:04 AM

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Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point:

 

attachicon.gif20171023 CONUS flow at 300mb.jpg

 

Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! 

 

Still two distinct centers..

 

attachicon.gif20171023 CONUS MSP and wind barbs.jpg

Southern MW phase and a bombing GL's monster!  The amount of precip and GOM connection is great to see.


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#44
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 10:01 AM

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From GRR's AFD this morn:

 

SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecast
area. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest and
there now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127
corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in the
watch however given uncertainty in the details. It is looking
increasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area could
receive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from this
afternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes this
evening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indications
that significant rainfall accumulations could continue well into
the day Tuesday, boosting totals even further.

We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowing
models. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to better
depiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properly
resolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that the
deformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area this
evening.
This will result in prolonged durations and greater coverage
for rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comes
a significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis further
boosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmospheric
moisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00Z
APX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,
respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfall
rates.

A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesday
could be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinity
of Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up with
the greatest totals by the middle of the week.



#45
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:13 AM

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RGEM with a powerhouse 980 mb cyclone tomorrow evening hammering the UP

 

[attachment=14433:20171023 12z 24hr RGEM 10m winds,MSLP for 7pm Oct 24.jpg]

 

[attachment=14434:20171023 NWS MQT graphic.jpg]

 

 



#46
westMJim

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:21 AM

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As of 3 PM (EDT) I have recorded 1.29" of rain for this event. Getting a steady moderate rain here now with a temperature of 52° at this time the winds are calm. I will update from time to time.


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#47
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:23 AM

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GRR updated with some local river flooding warnings mid-day. It's pretty wild that some places already had almost 2" overnight just CF forcing focusing alone. 

 

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

River levels are rising across the area. Rainfall of up to two
inches has fallen through this morning and another two to three
inches are possible through Tuesday. More rain is also possible
through the week.
Warnings have been issued for Croton on the
Muskegon River, Rockford on the Rogue River, and Vicksburg on the
Portage River. More river warnings could be issued depending on the
amount of rain that falls and where it falls. Areal flood warnings

and watches are also in effect though Tuesday. 

 

 



#48
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:27 AM

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From GRR's AFD this morn:

SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecast
area. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest and
there now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127
corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in the
watch however given uncertainty in the details. It is looking
increasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area could
receive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from this
afternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes this
evening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indications
that significant rainfall accumulations could continue well into
the day Tuesday, boosting totals even further.

We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowing
models. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to better
depiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properly
resolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that the
deformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area this
evening.
This will result in prolonged durations and greater coverage
for rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comes
a significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis further
boosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmospheric
moisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00Z
APX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,
respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfall
rates.

A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesday
could be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinity
of Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up with
the greatest totals by the middle of the week.


I noticed the strong frontogenesis on radar this morning and was going to comment on that. Thanks for sharing their disco. All these details we are seeing evolve over the past 24-48 hours are great signs going forward.
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#49
westMJim

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:37 AM

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If this system does indeed wrap up with high winds in the UP here is a web cam to take a peek at

https://www.explorem...g.com/web-cams/

and here is the 2nd part of the above cam

http://www.jamadots.com/webcams

at this time the skies are clear at Ontonagon with the temps in the low 60’s for a very nice day up there.


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#50
Madtown

Posted 23 October 2017 - 11:59 AM

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Gales of November came early!

https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nF
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