Powerful October 22nd-25th Great Lakes Autumn Storm

[Tom]

We have been tracking a rather complex, yet, potentially an increasingly impacting late October storm system phasing across the S Midwest/GL's region for early this week.  Models have been having a very difficult time trying to figure what will happen with the northern and southern energy but they are now coming into good agreement that this system will be a large impacting storm.  

 

Let's dive in...

 

Latest trends have been NW with the SLP coming out of the south as of late and now bring in the heavier band of rain into far NE/E IL....as this storm phases completely and becomes a closed low circulation, it may potentially retrograde back west across N MI Monday night into Tuesday.

 

Not only will it be windy and wet, there may also be the first flakes of snow flying in the U.P. and parts of WI.  Very interesting storm system to say the least.

 

Here are the latest NAM model runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

Widespread rainfall expected throughout Monday night as lower
Michigan becomes the pivot point for strengthening mid level
deformation in the presence of persistent fgen and large scale
divergence. Rainfall amounts carry the greatest uncertainty in this
event, with a strong dependence on both placement and longevity of
the greatest axis of ascent. High confidence exists in a widespread
swath of 1 to 2 inches with this event, but with diminishing
confidence in witnessing a higher end stripe of 2+ inches. Certainly
a plausible scenario exists to see higher amounts given the overall
setup, a solution space supported for several cycles now by the
ECMWF/Canadian. 12z NAM is trending in this direction, depicting a
much greater overall response now. Outside of the GFS, model
consensus points to the higher rainfall amounts across the Tri-
cities, or roughly anchored along and enhanced by the expected
frontal positioning. 6 hour flash flood guidance on average hovers
near 2.5 inches. With this being a long duration event and still
more than 24-36 hours out from any potentially impactful amounts,
will hold off on issuance of a flood watch.

 

Man, if this was snow.

[Tom]

Radar trends seem to agree with the NW trend over the past 24-48 hours and it looks like those heavier radar returns in C/S IL are heading right towards Chitown...

 

Man, only if this were winter...this storm is going to be a big fat tease of what we can expect this cold season...

[Niko]

Radar trends seem to agree with the NW trend over the past 24-48 hours and it looks like those heavier radar returns in C/S IL are heading right towards Chitown...

 

Man, only if this were winter...this storm is going to be a big fat tease of what we can expect this cold season...

Chicago (Includes your pl. Tom) points eastward towards Jasters locale and westMJim would have been the shutdown point. Its only a matter of time b4 we start talking about these types of storms in terms of hvy snow accumulations.

[Tom]

Both 00z NAM's are phasing this storm quicker and resulting in a deeper storm over MI....this thing will look like a beast come tomorrow's visible satellite imagery...

[jaster220]

With 21 days of October 2017 in the record books GRR mean temperature is 60.1° (not including today) and that is good for a departure of +7.4° With a temperature of 75° today is the 3^rd day in a row of mid to upper 70’s and 6 days where the highs have been in the upper 60’s to upper 70’s

On average the last day of 75 or warmer here in Grand Rapids is October 13^th with a range from September 15^th 1981 to November 6^th 1975 so we so we are still within that range. The average last day of 70° is October 25^th with a range of October 1^st 1925 to November 23^rd 1931.

 

That '81 stat confirms my memory of it being a cold autumn leading into a top 5 harsh winter!

[jaster220]

Per GRR AFD:

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

 

Main short term fcst concerns involve determining potential for

heavy rain Monday through Monday night into Tuesday.

 

The slow moving cold front moving in from the west will cause

showers to continue to develop from west to east across our fcst

area late this afternoon through tonight. This notion is supported

by rgnl radar trends, sref pops and a consensus of latest higher

resolution guidance such as the 3km nam.

 

A strengthening area of low pressure will move north and bring

portions of our area heavy rain Monday afternoon through Monday

night. We continue to prefer the 12Z ecmwf and ecmwf trends for

several runs now that have been consistent in showing that a

southern stream disturbance currently over the panhandle of Texas

will strengthen as it moves east.

 

It will then eventually get pulled north by the upper low/amplifying

upper trough over our region tomorrow. This leads to development

of a stronger sfc low and potential for heavy rain near to east

of US-131 tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night where very

strong mid level pva will develop.

 

The area near to mainly east of a line from Mt. Pleasant to

Kalamazoo is most favored for highest rainfall totals of around

1.5-3 inches Monday through Monday night into Tuesday. Highest

end totals within that range will most likely occur over our

eastern fcst area around KLAN and KJXN as suggested by the 12Z

ecmwf.

 

Given the strength of moisture transport there Monday afternoon

and evening I would not be surprised to see locally higher totals

of around 4-5 inches for this event in our eastern fcst area. Our

going flood watch headline will remain unchanged. We considered

dropping Osceola and Mecosta counties from the watch but felt it`s

a close enough call to keep those counties in it at this time.

 

It will be windy and cooler Tuesday with numerous showers with the

upper low and trof axis overhead. Showers will linger Tuesday

night.

[jaster220]

Both 00z NAM's are phasing this storm quicker and resulting in a deeper storm over MI....this thing will look like a beast come tomorrow's visible satellite imagery...

Did you see the crazy loop-de-loop on the GEM? Does the circle tour of the LP of MI. Gonna be interesting to see if any of the crazier model solutions have merit?

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

I see you Detroit area!

 

From GRR:

 

 

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

 

Showers will spread into the area from the west through this

evening, with coverage of rain filling in overnight. This looks to

bring about a half-inch of rain to west Michigan by about 8AM Monday

morning. Rain may be moderate in intensity at times, but is not

expected to cause flooding overnight.

 

There should be a brief decrease in shower activity Monday morning

before another round of rain develops over Lower Michigan Monday

afternoon and lasts into Tuesday. Most locations look to receive at

least an additional inch of rainfall, but a north-to-south

orientated swath of heavier rain, with amounts of possibly 3 to 5

inches, is expected over the Lower Peninsula. At this time, it looks

like this heavier swath of rain will be located somewhere between

U.S. 131 and the Detroit-area.

[Tom]

00z NAM 12km...woah!  Quite the soaker heading for W MI!  Niko's area may get dry slotted...

 

 

 

 

 

3km...

 

[jaster220]

Always cool when you see 2 SLP's coming so near one another.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Lake Superior is going to be rockin' with wave action amid 60-70mph wind gusts!  Tuesday will be a windy and showery day around here with gusty N/NW winds.  I think a lot of trees will loose their leaves by the middle of this week.

 

@ Jaster, both NAM's are seeing the closed low retrograde westward across N MI....Kuddo's to the GGEM for seeing that trend first while a few days out...

[Tom]

You could already see the comma head signature beginning on radar near AR/MO.  Gosh, these are encouraging signs to see systems like these coming out of the deep south.  Fantastic moisture transport along with a phasing neg tilted trough....#perfection

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

I see you Detroit area!

 

From GRR:

 

 

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

 

Showers will spread into the area from the west through this

evening, with coverage of rain filling in overnight. This looks to

bring about a half-inch of rain to west Michigan by about 8AM Monday

morning. Rain may be moderate in intensity at times, but is not

expected to cause flooding overnight.

 

There should be a brief decrease in shower activity Monday morning

before another round of rain develops over Lower Michigan Monday

afternoon and lasts into Tuesday. Most locations look to receive at

least an additional inch of rainfall, but a north-to-south

orientated swath of heavier rain, with amounts of possibly 3 to 5

inches, is expected over the Lower Peninsula. At this time, it looks

like this heavier swath of rain will be located somewhere between

U.S. 131 and the Detroit-area.

We need these type of storm tracks down the road. Get ready for feet of snow.

[Niko]

00z NAM 12km...woah!  Quite the soaker heading for W MI!  Niko's area may get dry slotted...

 

 

 

 

 

3km...

 

Yep, I might be getting dry air pushing in killing off the moisture.

[jaster220]

Lake Superior is going to be rockin' with wave action amid 60-70mph wind gusts! Tuesday will be a windy and showery day around here with gusty N/NW winds. I think a lot of trees will loose their leaves by the middle of this week.

 

@ Jaster, both NAM's are seeing the closed low retrograde westward across N MI....Kuddo's to the GGEM for seeing that trend first while a few days out...

Kinda surprised at the NAM not following the GFS? Some say it's just a short range vs of that model. These bombing storms do tend to bend left of initially forecast track tho, so it looks to be happening with this as well. Why GRR was hugging the GFS is beyond me? Even their blended plan may be too far east. Great trend for your place though, especially in winter. You'd be high-fiving the hanging plants.

[jaster220]

Yeah, #Superior would be downright scary on a ship. Saw a vid of 20 ft swells and that was bad enough.

[Tom]

00z GFS has shifted NW and following the other models. Looks like the GGEM scored a coupe on this one.

[Tom]

Here is the RPM models output for our local area...get your canoe ready MI!

 

[jaster220]

00z GFS has shifted NW and following the other models. Looks like the GGEM scored a coupe on this one.

 

GGEM led the way for sure, but EC had the right idea, yet just when you'd expect to see the GFS go gonzo with some outlandish over-amped mega-bomb...it's out to lunch 

 

GRR admitted in their AFD that they normally base their forecast heavily weighted on the GFS, and apparently so does the CPC since they had all the heavy rain well east. Gotta believe there's internal pressure within the gov entities to rely on the American model(s), even tho the outcomes across SMI are stacking up to laughable levels so far this month. Of (3) systems to nail SWMI, the only thing that showed  up on any CPC 3-7d hazards map was high winds on the 15th. This will be the 3rd heavy rain situation that was never outlined for SWMI (shown east biased or just totally missed  ).  

[westMJim]

This is going to be long but here is some of this morning’s discussions 1^st on the rain for my area from the NWS Grand Rapids (note Grand Rapids has already received over 5” of rain this October already, The record for GRR for October is 8.32” in 1954) and then some on the winds and maybe snow in the UP.

Here is some of this morning discussion: “ HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST AND  
THERE NOW MAY BE A REDUCED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE US-127   
CORRIDOR AROUND LANSING AND JACKSON. WE WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN THE  
WATCH HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. IT IS LOOKING   
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A SIZABLE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD  
RECEIVE 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN, MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FROM THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT COMMUTES THIS   
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS   
THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO   
THE DAY TUESDAY, BOOSTING TOTALS EVEN FURTHER”

And off to the north here is some of the discussion from Marquette: “.WINDS: USING A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE WINDS, MOST SHORELINE   
AREAS AND THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 50MPH, WITH 60-  
70MPH GUSTS BETWEEN BETWEEN BIG BAY AND MUNISING OR GRAND MARAIS AND   
ALSO OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. THE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE OVER FAR   
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SHORELINE GUSTS MAY BE A LOWER AND   
AROUND AND E OF GRAND MARAIS WHERE, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE   
LOW, WINDS MAY BE MORE OUT OF THE SE. IF THE LOW TRACKS ARE   
CURRENTLY SHOWN, STRONG GUSTS OF POSSIBLY 45-55MPH WOULD EXTEND   
INLAND OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI, INCLUDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ESCANABA   
AREA. THESE PEAK WINDS WOULD BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z TUE,   
PARTICULARLY IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. WEAKER, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT   
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 06Z WED NEAR CENTRAL AND EASTERN   
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THESE   
WINDS WOULD QUITE LIKELY LEAD TO MANY TREES COMING DOWN IN THE MOST   
IMPACTED AREAS, LIKELY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.  
  
WAVES: WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 25FT  OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE   
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN LAKESHORE FLOODING AND   
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ON THE N SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW AND   
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR, PEAK   
WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 14-20FT, LEADING TO LAKESHORE FLOODING AND   
BEACH EROSION.  
  
SNOW: WITH THE SYSTEM NOW BEING MODELED AS MORE WRAPPED UP, COLDER   
AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER   
TERRAIN OF THE W HALF TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE   
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON   
COUNTIES WITH 2-4 INCHES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN   
THAT SINCE SOME PARAMETERS WILL BE NEAR BORDERLINE VALUES FOR SNOW   
AND TRACK/STRENGTH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE. SOME GUIDANCE   
SUGGESTED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES, EVEN AS FAR E AS OUR OFFICE   
IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP, BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH THOSE   
HIGH OF VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE SOME MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO   
SNOW. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE   
 

[james1976]

I can actually see the back edge of the cloud deck from this system if i look up just off to my east. Pretty cool.

Radar looks impressive.

[jaster220]

Love when the maps light up the lakes with deep purple-you know it's serious stuff, but Whoa! at those waves   and hurricane gusts!

 

 

[Tom]

High Rez NAM rapidly deepens the SLP from a 1000mb storm along the S MI/N IN border around 1:00pm, to 980mb in 16 hours (6:00am Tuesday) in N MI.  I love when systems bomb out like this producing ferocious winds and precip!

 

 

 

[Tom]

Love when the maps light up the lakes with deep purple-you know it's serious stuff, but Whoa! at those waves   and hurricane gusts!

 

20171023 Lk Superior Storm warning.JPG

Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!

[jaster220]

This one's focused further north with the high winds, due mostly to lack of winter time cold air. It's actually pretty early for such an amped GL's storm. November style storm about 3 wks early. Still, it's a very nasty morning here in St. Joseph with a huge contrast from when I left Marshall with zero drops and 62F to here with a driving NNE wind  moderate rain and 53F.  The CF didn't get as far east as thought but this would be a rockin system in winter. Hope it comes back in some form later. 

 

 

[Tom]

ORD has picked up .93" already from this system since yesterday which is actually a bit more than I thought we would get.  This system looked like it would be missing us to the east but last minute NW trends have given us an appreciable amount of precip thus far.

[james1976]

[jaster220]

Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!

 

Only been a 4 decade interlude, what's the rush??    Yeah, I can only hope you're right. So far, lookin' good

 

ORD has picked up .93" already from this system since yesterday which is actually a bit more than I thought we would get.  This system looked like it would be missing us to the east but last minute NW trends have given us an appreciable amount of precip thus far.

 

You have to include yby in that above post ya know?? 

[Niko]

Rain is knocking on my doorstep. It will be a rainy day on tap.

[jaster220]

I know MQT said they were holding off on snow headlines, but these guys think it's worth showing snow falling over the western highlands so we may see some winter headlines yet. 

 

 

[Niko]

Lots of dynamics with this system.

[jaster220]

Jaster, this is going to be your season for strong, windy storm systems.  This pattern is going to be excited going forward.  Even though this is not a snow maker, it certainly will be telling of our future for this season.  I'm with you, I'd like to see a lot of these systems wrapped up producing wind-driven snow later on in the season!

 

Remember what Snowday said in their winter outlook for 2013-14?? It didn't really quite reach that level 4 yrs ago but maybe it is spot-on for this year! I won't complain on the delayed but not denied scenario 

 

 

[jaster220]

Lots of dynamics with this system.

 

Around MI, it's the storms that take a due north track that are the bombers! Per Tom's post, this would be a 30 mb in 24 hrs drop. For comparison with the MOAB's in Jan '78 that system dropped 40 mb in 24 hrs! Ofc, that had the added ingredient of super-chilled mid-winter arctic air to work with. So did Nov 8, 1913 white hurricane for that matter.

[Niko]

Around MI, it's the storms that take a due north track that are the bombers! Per Tom's post, this would be a 30 mb in 24 hrs drop. For comparison with the MOAB's in Jan '78 that system dropped 40 mb in 24 hrs! Ofc, that had the added ingredient of super-chilled mid-winter arctic air to work with. So did Nov 8, 1913 white hurricane for that matter.

"White Hurricane"....gotta like the way that sounds.

[jaster220]

N Lk Mich upgraded now to a Storm warning. And it's a long duration event. GGEM wants to loop the 990-->980-->990 mb Low around Lwr Mich for (30) hrs. OMG if this scenario played out in winter some places in the snowbelts would be buried worse than Jan '78!  Saw a Traverse area guy comment online about that storm. Said he lived out in the county and his neighbor lived on property near him and needed his help. He had to dig down through 10 ft of drifted snow to reach his neighbor's porch. When I first moved up there, the locals at my work said there was one mobile home park out in the county that was totally buried to the roof tops! 

 

 

[Niko]

I am in the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" but, could be in a "Flood Watch" later this afternoon. Most of the real, hvy stuff will be on my west.

[jaster220]

"White Hurricane"....gotta like the way that sounds.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Storm_of_1913

 

 

[Tom]

N Lk Mich upgraded now to a Storm warning. And it's a long duration event. GGEM wants to loop the 990-->980-->990 mb Low around Lwr Mich for (30) hrs. OMG if this scenario played out in winter some places in the snowbelts would be buried worse than Jan '78!  Saw a Traverse area guy comment online about that storm. Said he lived out in the county and his neighbor lived on property near him and needed his help. He had to dig down through 10 ft of drifted snow to reach his neighbor's porch. When I first moved up there, the locals at my work said there was one mobile home park out in the county that was totally buried to the roof tops! 

 

20171023 NWS CWA hazards NMI.JPG

Unable to see your attachments for some reason...speaking of Traverse city, I think this place will be buried this season.  This year's LRC storm track thus far this season screams its going to be a good season around the GL's.  Wonder if snow records will be broken this season not only for amounts, but snow cover duration.

[Tom]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Storm_of_1913

 

19131106 Surf map re-image.jpg

Wow, very interesting system.  This sorta jives with the storm I'm anticipating around the 11/11 period!  How about that?