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Powerful October 22nd-25th Great Lakes Autumn Storm

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#51
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 12:20 PM

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This system will pull down some chilly air. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s for Wednesday as the low pressure area departs away.


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#52
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 12:51 PM

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This system is affecting nearly everyone in this sub-forum except for the southern posters....from NE all the way into the GL's!

 

 


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#53
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 01:03 PM

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Very impressive wrap-around moisture being depicted by the high rez NAM with 1.0-1.5" in spots across S WI/N IL/IN...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#54
Tom

Posted 23 October 2017 - 01:26 PM

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Hey WestMJim, let us know what you experience when that intense fronto band comes onshore near GRR.  That looks intense on radar!

 

It almost looks like what a hurricane would produce along the edge of an eye wall....

 

 

 

GRR.N0Q.20171023.2124.gif


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#55
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 02:04 PM

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No wind as of yet, but definitely getting heavy rain now. Picked up near .50".



#56
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 03:05 PM

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Winds are now starting to pick up a bit. Still raining,but not as hvy.



#57
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 03:56 PM

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Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up.



#58
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:20 PM

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Gales of November came early!
https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nF

I was just a kid when news of the missing ship feared sunk hit the TV and radio news, and I can still remember that evening. One of my all-time favorite tunes as well. When he returned to touring after the coma, I saw him in a concert near Detroit. Crowd made him play that song twice! Mich peeps love that song, it touched a lot people with a vivid portrayal of the savage conditions those sailors faced. Who makes a #5 pop hit today based on real life history? Unique circumstances that was.
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#59
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:24 PM

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Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up.


Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54

#60
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:27 PM

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Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54

Wednesday will be real chilly as temps remain in the 40s throughout the day as the low pressure area leaves and lows drop near freezing later at night.

 

Btw: Hard freeze in the works for both of us this weekend. Lows could bottom out in the 20s.



#61
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 04:51 PM

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At Niko

Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands.

[attachment=14438:usa_ICast (4).gif]

#62
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:03 PM

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Dropped 2 mb from 6-7pm. 996 mb closed contour last update. She's taking off! Bombs-away!
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#63
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:05 PM

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At Niko

Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands.

attachicon.gifusa_ICast (4).gif

Hopefully, this is the beginning of a great Winter to come.

 

Tbh, I have a feeling by weeks end, there will be a lot of bare trees around, especially with that real shot of chilly air arriving for the weekend.

 

Btw: can you imagine that map above was in January or February?! Oh...Boy! ;)


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#64
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:14 PM

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GRR pm AFD

Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Low pressure moving north across Lower Michigan will continue to
bring heavy rain with some flooding expected through Tuesday. The
low will deepen on Tuesday and winds will be ramping up with some
strong wind gusts Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Heavy rain tonight into Tuesday and high winds Tuesday into
Tuesday night are the main forecast issues in the near term.

The Flood Watch was replaced with areal Flood Warning across the
western third of the forecast area and an areal Flood Advisory to
its east. The southeast zones are not expected to see flooding and
the watch was dropped there.

Surface low was centered just south of AZO at 330 PM and is moving
north with strong area of f-gen expected to continue producing
inch an hour rain rates across the warning area through the
evening. We have been fortunate that the bulk of the heaviest rain
has remained over Lake Michigan so far today, but amounts over 2
inches have occurred across parts of Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana
Counties with a report of nearly 2.25 inches near Holland at 320
PM. The heavier rain is moving onshore and the HRRR has the f-gen
area pivoting across our northwest zones tonight.

So 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible in the warning area with
amounts of an inch or less across the southeast zones by Tuesday
afternoon.

The other issue we will have to deal with high winds on Tuesday as
the low rapidly deepens across northern Lower Michigan.
Tightening pressure gradient and strong cold advection will
combine to bring gusts to wind advisory criteria during the
morning across the northern coastal zones and by afternoon across
central and southern zones. We have issued a wind advisory for
this area. The winds will subside after midnight as the low pulls
away.

#65
westMJim

Posted 23 October 2017 - 05:33 PM

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As of 9:30 PM EDT I have a event total of 2.34" at my house. The winds have now picked up and gusting to 30 MPH at this time the temperature has now dropped to 49°



#66
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:02 PM

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Holy crap! The house just got rocked! Where's GRR with some wind headlines??

And I'm in a very sheltered location in town.

994 mb closed contour an hour ago.

[attachment=14439:pmsl (1).gif]
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#67
Niko

Posted 23 October 2017 - 06:24 PM

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Sustain winds at 24mph with gusts at 40mph. Wicked winds out there.


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#68
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 03:52 AM

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Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night.  The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in.

 

I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P.  Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty! 

 

 

MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif



#69
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:19 AM

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Dang, these are some impressive wave heights near Marquette!

 

DM5m4NwVQAAoebY.jpg


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#70
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:21 AM

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Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night.  The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in.

 

I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P.  Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty!

 

 

MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif

 

 

 

Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty!

 

AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter  :o

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.  :)  Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  [attachment=14448:20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg]


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#71
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:33 AM

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AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter  :o

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.  :)  Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  attachicon.gif20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

That's a beautiful map right there!  Agree, the NW trend with this system might of upset Niko when he was looking at heavy rains just a few days ago.  This storm is a good "test case" for us this season if/when we see more storms coming out of the deep south.  Got a feeling this will be one of the storm tracks we will see this season.  I'm already seeing a similar storm track Week 2 in November...hint, hint....after the 11/11 system but it may be a little farther east this time depending on how strong the EC ridge will be.  


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#72
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:34 AM

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AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter  :o

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.  :)  Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  attachicon.gif20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

BTW, what site are you using to get those msl contour maps and the one above?



#73
westMJim

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:14 AM

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For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling.   The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.


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#74
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:21 AM

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Picked up .77".



#75
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:22 AM

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For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling.   The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.

Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?!



#76
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:23 AM

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AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter  :o

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.  :)  Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  attachicon.gif20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

That is a major trough with a neg tilted closed low. Likng it! We need this for Winter when it arrives.


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#77
westMJim

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:30 AM

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Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?!

yes



#78
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:45 AM

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Man, it's been pouring heavily out in the western burbs with this band of rain.  Dekalb/Kane/McHenry counties have been the epicenter with those heavier returns over the past few hours.

 

LOT.N0Q.20171024.1341.gif



#79
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 07:13 AM

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^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow??

 

6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb!

 

Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof..

 

[attachment=14453:20171024 6z 6hr NAM 32km precip,MSLP for Oct 24.png]


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#80
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 07:18 AM

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^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow??

 

6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb!

 

Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof..

 

attachicon.gif20171024 6z 6hr NAM 32km precip,MSLP for Oct 24.png

You can see the lake is having a little influence, it would be better if there was a more stronger NE flow.



#81
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 08:45 AM

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BTW, what site are you using to get those msl contour maps and the one above?

 

Not sure the actual linked source for those. In the local SMI sub-forum they have a pinned thread that just has all these linked outputs for storm tracking mode. It's been there since '08-09 season got going, and only now am I using it. Guess I've worked my way up to model watcher status. Wasn't my thing before, as said in here. I lurked there during '06-07, then joined last day of '07 with that interesting season underway, guess I wanted in on the fun. 

 

http://www.uswxforum...ays-up-to-date/



#82
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 08:48 AM

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You can see the lake is having a little influence, it would be better if there was a more stronger NE flow.

 

Truly, it may be a combination of the remnants of the N shortwave's moisture, and/or a Superior feed, or just moisture rising out of the bath tub known as Lake Mich. Or, all the above joining forces. 



#83
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 09:35 AM

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Wow, mega moisture bomb! 

 

[attachment=14461:20171024 1230 pm KGRR rainfall estimation.jpg]



#84
westMJim

Posted 24 October 2017 - 09:56 AM

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Now over 3” of rain (for this event) here at my house now at 3.18” with rain still falling. No wind here and the temperature has held in the upper 40’s and is now at 49°



#85
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 09:59 AM

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A tad breezy out on Gitchie-gummie right now 

 

[attachment=14462:20171024 2pm Obs Stannard Rock in Superior.JPG]


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#86
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 10:21 AM

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Grand total from this storm .86" and some wind. If all was snow, could have been pretty decent. :D


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#87
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 10:26 AM

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:D  Now them's some nice baro readings right there..

 

[attachment=14463:20171024 Sault Obs.JPG]

 


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#88
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:04 AM

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Leaves have really fallen of the trees ( on some that is) from these strong winds that were produced by this storm system.



#89
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:14 AM

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Trough axis pin-wheeling around the main SLP is going to carry some moisture inland to round out mby's expected 2" total. At least that's what I'm figuring since a major lull has my total stuck at 1.35" since morning. 

 

[attachment=14464:20171024 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-for 2pm Oct 24.jpg]

 

[attachment=14465:20171023 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-for 8pm Oct 24.jpg]

 

This scenario would just be raging heavy lake enhanced snowfall across SWMI. We saw this numerous time with clippers in 13-14



#90
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:17 AM

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Just read that this storm system has officially reached textbook bombogenesis!  From 12z Mon to 12z Tue it dropped 27mb...reaching the necessary criteria.


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#91
james1976

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Large storm system. This thing had great trends leading up to and during it. And now we are starting to see that with the upcoming late week system.
Currently 48, windy and sunny. Back edge of the cloud deck has moved to my east.
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#92
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Just read that this storm system has officially reached textbook bombogenesis!  From 12z Mon to 12z Tue it dropped 27mb...reaching the necessary criteria.

 

And I think that's exactly the drop that the GGEM and/or Euro was showing. Nice to see them verify for a change with one of our storms, especially this unique set-up that rarely works out around here. Mental note for later - GFS was out to lunch! 

 

Meanwhile, 3.3" here at work and +RN and wind continue to pound us along the shoreline. If was Jan, this place would be shut down no doubt.


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#93
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:21 PM

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:blink:  :blink:

 

This would be a whiteout wall of ++SN moving in off the lake. Gonna be a slow commute on 94 as-is with this! 

 

[attachment=14467:20171024 4 pm radar shot.JPG]



#94
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:24 PM

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Large storm system. This thing had great trends leading up to and during it. And now we are starting to see that with the upcoming late week system.
Currently 48, windy and sunny. Back edge of the cloud deck has moved to my east.

 

Which was virtually ignored until the last minute thanks to the wacked GFS not allowing a consensus of major models. Hope this happens all winter, so nobody but us in here has the plan. Don't mean peeps to suffer or anything, but NWS blew chunks riding the GFS's bs. 



#95
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:29 PM

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A bouy near MQT within the last hour maxed out at 28.9 feet...

 

DM7f99DXcAAP8yE.jpg


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#96
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 01:33 PM

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Branches have been spotted broken from very strong winds and some light rain returning as well. Its a raw evening out there. :)



#97
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:47 PM

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Branches have been spotted broken from very strong winds and some light rain returning as well. Its a raw evening out there. :)

One of the biggest wx contrasts that I can remember! Sunday evening I was in shorts and trying not to overheat. This evening I'm pumping gas in 35 deg windchill and everybody with me looked uncomfortable as well. The wind plus the heavy rain is really raw after endless summer. The Plains get this a lot, but nasso much MI. We will see this sometimes in early spring, but then we're more acclimated to the cold and have winter coats at hand.

Oh, and with temps staying chilly the next two days, went ahead and fired up the furnace. First time I've done that in October since 2009.
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#98
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 04:50 PM

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For the record..

[attachment=14469:1024_BOMBOGENESIS_244p_1280x720_18512965854.jpg]
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#99
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:35 PM

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One of the biggest wx contrasts that I can remember! Sunday evening I was in shorts and trying not to overheat. This evening I'm pumping gas in 35 deg windchill and everybody with me looked uncomfortable as well. The wind plus the heavy rain is really raw after endless summer. The Plains get this a lot, but nasso much MI. We will see this sometimes in early spring, but then we're more acclimated to the cold and have winter coats at hand.

Oh, and with temps staying chilly the next two days, went ahead and fired up the furnace. First time I've done that in October since 2009.

Next couple of days will be quite chilly. My highs remain in the 40s and lows near the freezing mark, if not lower.



#100
jaster220

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:29 AM

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I don't remember so many rainstorms (in a row no less) where there was such broad coverage of inches and inches of rain. Often a small area sees these kinds of totals due to T-storms over a few counties, but this has been wild stuff tbh. Some autumns way back like '81 and '85 featured one of these, but we're on a roll already with the possibility of more. 

 

[attachment=14484:20171025 NWS GRR storm total RN graphic.jpg]


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