Powerful October 22nd-25th Great Lakes Autumn Storm

[jaster220]

Unable to see your attachments for some reason...speaking of Traverse city, I think this place will be buried this season.  This year's LRC storm track thus far this season screams its going to be a good season around the GL's.  Wonder if snow records will be broken this season not only for amounts, but snow cover duration.

 

Yeah, lovely. I was trying to delete oldest page first and didn't realize after you delete one batch, it reverts to viewing your latest vs oldest. I kept clicking and deleted a whole page full of recent attachments..   (doubt I'll have time to restore 'em all tbh) 

 

Was posting on local SMI board that I truly feel good that this region (Kzoo/BC/Marshall) will see it's first Cat-5 storm (20+") in 40 yrs (you've had at least 2 in that time iirc), and that these records could/should be in play in order of descending likely-hood:

 

_ Peak snow depth

_ Seasonal total snowfall

_ Greatest single-storm total snowfall

_ Greatest single month total

 

With all this warmth and up and down temps, I'm not yet comfortable putting things like longevity of snowcover, days with lows below zero or lowest mean daily temps on the table. Not ruling them out, just need to see more real-time indicators. So far I've only got Peach pits, caterpillar hairs, and Squirrel's tails to go on..

[jaster220]

Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point:

 

 

 

Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! 

 

Still two distinct centers..

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point:

 

20171023 CONUS flow at 300mb.jpg

 

Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! 

 

Still two distinct centers..

 

20171023 CONUS MSP and wind barbs.jpg

Southern MW phase and a bombing GL's monster!  The amount of precip and GOM connection is great to see.

[jaster220]

From GRR's AFD this morn:

 

SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecast
area. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest and
there now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127
corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in the
watch however given uncertainty in the details. It is looking
increasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area could
receive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from this
afternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes this
evening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indications
that significant rainfall accumulations could continue well into
the day Tuesday, boosting totals even further.

We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowing
models. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to better
depiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properly
resolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that the
deformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area this
evening. This will result in prolonged durations and greater coverage
for rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comes
a significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis further
boosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmospheric
moisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00Z
APX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,
respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfall
rates.

A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesday
could be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinity
of Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up with
the greatest totals by the middle of the week.

[jaster220]

RGEM with a powerhouse 980 mb cyclone tomorrow evening hammering the UP

 

 

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

As of 3 PM (EDT) I have recorded 1.29" of rain for this event. Getting a steady moderate rain here now with a temperature of 52° at this time the winds are calm. I will update from time to time.

[jaster220]

GRR updated with some local river flooding warnings mid-day. It's pretty wild that some places already had almost 2" overnight just CF forcing focusing alone. 

 

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

River levels are rising across the area. Rainfall of up to two
inches has fallen through this morning and another two to three
inches are possible through Tuesday. More rain is also possible
through the week. Warnings have been issued for Croton on the
Muskegon River, Rockford on the Rogue River, and Vicksburg on the
Portage River. More river warnings could be issued depending on the
amount of rain that falls and where it falls. Areal flood warnings

and watches are also in effect though Tuesday. 

 

 

[Tom]

From GRR's AFD this morn:

 

SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

 

Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecast

area. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest and

there now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127

corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in the

watch however given uncertainty in the details. It is looking

increasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area could

receive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from this

afternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes this

evening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indications

that significant rainfall accumulations could continue well into

the day Tuesday, boosting totals even further.

 

We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowing

models. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to better

depiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properly

resolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that the

deformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area this

evening. This will result in prolonged durations and greater coverage

for rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comes

a significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis further

boosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmospheric

moisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00Z

APX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,

respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfall

rates.

 

A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesday

could be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinity

of Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up with

the greatest totals by the middle of the week.

I noticed the strong frontogenesis on radar this morning and was going to comment on that. Thanks for sharing their disco. All these details we are seeing evolve over the past 24-48 hours are great signs going forward.

[westMJim]

If this system does indeed wrap up with high winds in the UP here is a web cam to take a peek at

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

and here is the 2^nd part of the above cam

http://www.jamadots.com/webcams

at this time the skies are clear at Ontonagon with the temps in the low 60’s for a very nice day up there.

[Madtown]

Gales of November came early!

 

https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nF

[Niko]

This system will pull down some chilly air. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s for Wednesday as the low pressure area departs away.

[Tom]

This system is affecting nearly everyone in this sub-forum except for the southern posters....from NE all the way into the GL's!

 

 

[Tom]

Very impressive wrap-around moisture being depicted by the high rez NAM with 1.0-1.5" in spots across S WI/N IL/IN...

 

[Tom]

Hey WestMJim, let us know what you experience when that intense fronto band comes onshore near GRR.  That looks intense on radar!

 

It almost looks like what a hurricane would produce along the edge of an eye wall....

 

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/GRR/N0Q/GRR.N0Q.20171023.2124.gif

[Niko]

No wind as of yet, but definitely getting heavy rain now. Picked up near .50".

[Niko]

Winds are now starting to pick up a bit. Still raining,but not as hvy.

[Niko]

Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up.

[jaster220]

Gales of November came early!

https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nF

I was just a kid when news of the missing ship feared sunk hit the TV and radio news, and I can still remember that evening. One of my all-time favorite tunes as well. When he returned to touring after the coma, I saw him in a concert near Detroit. Crowd made him play that song twice! Mich peeps love that song, it touched a lot people with a vivid portrayal of the savage conditions those sailors faced. Who makes a #5 pop hit today based on real life history? Unique circumstances that was.

[jaster220]

Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up.

Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54

[Niko]

Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54

Wednesday will be real chilly as temps remain in the 40s throughout the day as the low pressure area leaves and lows drop near freezing later at night.

 

Btw: Hard freeze in the works for both of us this weekend. Lows could bottom out in the 20s.

[jaster220]

At Niko

 

Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands.

 

 

[jaster220]

Dropped 2 mb from 6-7pm. 996 mb closed contour last update. She's taking off! Bombs-away!

[Niko]

At Niko

 

Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands.

 

usa_ICast (4).gif

Hopefully, this is the beginning of a great Winter to come.

 

Tbh, I have a feeling by weeks end, there will be a lot of bare trees around, especially with that real shot of chilly air arriving for the weekend.

 

Btw: can you imagine that map above was in January or February?! Oh...Boy!

[jaster220]

GRR pm AFD

 

Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

 

Low pressure moving north across Lower Michigan will continue to

bring heavy rain with some flooding expected through Tuesday. The

low will deepen on Tuesday and winds will be ramping up with some

strong wind gusts Tuesday and Tuesday night.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)

Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

 

Heavy rain tonight into Tuesday and high winds Tuesday into

Tuesday night are the main forecast issues in the near term.

 

The Flood Watch was replaced with areal Flood Warning across the

western third of the forecast area and an areal Flood Advisory to

its east. The southeast zones are not expected to see flooding and

the watch was dropped there.

 

Surface low was centered just south of AZO at 330 PM and is moving

north with strong area of f-gen expected to continue producing

inch an hour rain rates across the warning area through the

evening. We have been fortunate that the bulk of the heaviest rain

has remained over Lake Michigan so far today, but amounts over 2

inches have occurred across parts of Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana

Counties with a report of nearly 2.25 inches near Holland at 320

PM. The heavier rain is moving onshore and the HRRR has the f-gen

area pivoting across our northwest zones tonight.

 

So 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible in the warning area with

amounts of an inch or less across the southeast zones by Tuesday

afternoon.

 

The other issue we will have to deal with high winds on Tuesday as

the low rapidly deepens across northern Lower Michigan.

Tightening pressure gradient and strong cold advection will

combine to bring gusts to wind advisory criteria during the

morning across the northern coastal zones and by afternoon across

central and southern zones. We have issued a wind advisory for

this area. The winds will subside after midnight as the low pulls

away.

[westMJim]

As of 9:30 PM EDT I have a event total of 2.34" at my house. The winds have now picked up and gusting to 30 MPH at this time the temperature has now dropped to 49°

[jaster220]

Holy crap! The house just got rocked! Where's GRR with some wind headlines??

 

And I'm in a very sheltered location in town.

 

994 mb closed contour an hour ago.

 

 

[Niko]

Sustain winds at 24mph with gusts at 40mph. Wicked winds out there.

[Tom]

Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night.  The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in.

 

I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P.  Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty! 

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MQT/N0Q/MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif

[Tom]

Dang, these are some impressive wave heights near Marquette!

 

[jaster220]

Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night.  The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in.

 

I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P.  Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty!

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MQT/N0Q/MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif

 

 

 

Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph!  Nasty!

 

AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter 

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.    Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  

[Tom]

AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter 

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.    Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

That's a beautiful map right there!  Agree, the NW trend with this system might of upset Niko when he was looking at heavy rains just a few days ago.  This storm is a good "test case" for us this season if/when we see more storms coming out of the deep south.  Got a feeling this will be one of the storm tracks we will see this season.  I'm already seeing a similar storm track Week 2 in November...hint, hint....after the 11/11 system but it may be a little farther east this time depending on how strong the EC ridge will be.  

[Tom]

AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter 

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.    Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

BTW, what site are you using to get those msl contour maps and the one above?

[westMJim]

For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling.   The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2^nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.

[Niko]

Picked up .77".

[Niko]

For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling.   The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2^nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.

Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?!

[Niko]

AKA..heavy wx!  Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter 

 

Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter.    Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday:

 

  20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpg

That is a major trough with a neg tilted closed low. Likng it! We need this for Winter when it arrives.

[westMJim]

Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?!

yes

[Tom]

Man, it's been pouring heavily out in the western burbs with this band of rain.  Dekalb/Kane/McHenry counties have been the epicenter with those heavier returns over the past few hours.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171024.1341.gif

[jaster220]

^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow??

 

6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb!

 

Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof..

 

 

[Tom]

^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow??

 

6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb!

 

Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof..

 

20171024 6z 6hr NAM 32km precip,MSLP for Oct 24.png

You can see the lake is having a little influence, it would be better if there was a more stronger NE flow.