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10/26-10/28 Upper MW/GL's Snow System

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#1
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Who's ready for their first snows???  Forget about first flakes, Mother Nature is deciding to lay down the north's first accumulating snows of this early winter, excuse me, late fall season!  Models are now beginning to converge on a hybrid clipper type system diving in from the Canadian prairies of Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northwoods and eventually western GL's.  There is a lot of blocking around so expect to see models toss some more surprises going forward.

 

Needless to say, today's 12z Euro has turned this system into a rather potent storm with a lot of moisture and enough cold air to lay down some wet snow.  Temps on the Euro are warmer than the GFS so these details need to be ironed out as we get closer.  Dust off those snow shovels and snow blowers....Ol' Man Winter is coming!

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_138.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png

 

 

E NE may even get some snow flakes???

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_138.png



#2
james1976

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:14 AM

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Who's ready for their first snows??? Forget about first flakes, Mother Nature is deciding to lay down the north's first accumulating snows of this early winter, excuse me, late fall season! Models are now beginning to converge on a hybrid clipper type system diving in from the Canadian prairies of Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northwoods and eventually western GL's. There is a lot of blocking around so expect to see models toss some more surprises going forward.

Needless to say, today's 12z Euro has turned this system into a rather potent storm with a lot of moisture and enough cold air to lay down some wet snow. Temps on the Euro are warmer than the GFS so these details need to be ironed out as we get closer. Dust off those snow shovels and snow blowers....Ol' Man Winter is coming!

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_138.png


gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png


E NE may even get some snow flakes???

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_138.png

I didnt realize the GFS was showing accumulating snow this far south 😊

#3
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:19 AM

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If we get actual moisture we'll get snow. Simple as that. We cannot get snow under the <30% RH values we've been having forever.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#4
james1976

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:26 AM

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Can't wait to read pm AFD's.
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#5
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:33 AM

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@ Maps

 

Wow, Huron Mountains west of MQT gonna get walloped! Their trees just went bare a week ago. I feel that'll be a common story around this area as autumn gets the squeeze play between summer-n-winter. 



#6
james1976

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:42 AM

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Do you guys happpen to know what the wind profiles are looking like with the latest models? Isobars seemed fairly tight.

#7
NebraskaWX

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:44 AM

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If we get actual moisture we'll get snow. Simple as that. We cannot get snow under the <30% RH values we've been having forever.

 

 

My biggest concern as well. It's been abnormally dry here, and I'm afraid this system won't pull down enough humidity for us to get any.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#8
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 11:46 AM

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@ Maps

Wow, Huron Mountains west of MQT gonna get walloped! Their trees just went bare a week ago. I feel that'll be a common story around this area as autumn gets the squeeze play between summer-n-winter.


I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.
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#9
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:18 PM

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I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.

 

I know '95 was the super early winter conditions, but '96 also set in early and hard iirc. Would be great way to kick-off your winter fun! 



#10
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:19 PM

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I'm excited for the next NAM run. 12z was bringing moisture into the area on the head end of the storm system. THAT would be a perfect scenario which would possibly lead to accumulations here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#11
Tom

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Only 11 more days till we see the models come in an hour earlier...can’t wait, we are tracking systems a lot earlier this year.
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#12
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:26 PM

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I'm excited for the next NAM run. 12z was bringing moisture into the area on the head end of the storm system. THAT would be a perfect scenario which would possibly lead to accumulations here.

 

Weren't you just yesterday calling it storm fail? Or was that a different system all together? 



#13
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 October 2017 - 12:56 PM

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EURO / NAM / CMC really starting to come south with Fridays system. Should give us steady snow showers late Friday night if trends hold!


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#14
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 October 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Weren't you just yesterday calling it storm fail? Or was that a different system all together?

I never called it a fail. I said it's October so there's no use in getting hopes up.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#15
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 01:30 PM

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Let the party start then. Woohoooooo!!! :lol:

 

FWIW: I might see some snowflakes on Sunday, especially early in the day.



#16
james1976

Posted 24 October 2017 - 01:58 PM

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DMX not excited about any snow chances. Scattered with little to no accumulation which is prolly realistic.

#17
Stormgeek

Posted 24 October 2017 - 02:24 PM

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DMX not excited about any snow chances. Scattered with little to no accumulation which is prolly realistic.

MSP not too excited either about snow chances, saying the eastern forecast area will be too warm for much if I am reading it correctly.



#18
westMJim

Posted 24 October 2017 - 03:44 PM

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I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.

Here are some November snow fall amounts for Marquette. High side 53.0” in 2014. 48.9” in 1991.41.7”in 1989.  40.3”in 2008. low side 2.5” in 1990. 4.6” in 2009.  6.7” in 2015. 8.0” in 2004. All time reported November lowest (as reported) 1” in 1885. For the season the all-time snowiest was 319.9 in 2001/02 and the least snow was 53.9” in the 1940/41 season 


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#19
Niko

Posted 24 October 2017 - 06:03 PM

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As of now..this storm in SEMI will be provided just rain and drawing in some warmer air ahead of the storm. Temps will rise in the 60s b4 falling towards the end of the weekend into the 40s for highs with clearing conditions. Actually, Saturday looks pretty decent after some morning light rain. Overall, a nice weekend shaping up weatherwise for SEMI.



#20
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 October 2017 - 06:50 PM

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MSP not too excited either about snow chances, saying the eastern forecast area will be too warm for much if I am reading it correctly.


The 12z Euro temps weren’t good but the GFS showed a better scenario for us. Still a few days to see if we get anything more than a few wet flakes.

#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 October 2017 - 06:53 PM

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I just want measurable snow. We are overdue for measurable snow in October, last time it happened was 2009. I'll even be fine with 0.1".


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#22
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 03:57 AM

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00z GFS...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_20.png

 

 

 

00z Euro with more realistic totals...still have to consider the warm grounds though...

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png



#23
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 04:37 AM

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06z NAM...

 

 



#24
Niko

Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:45 AM

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Just a few light showers for MBY with this storm and turning colder behind this system. Perhaps a few flurries at best! :unsure:



#25
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:56 AM

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NAM is insanely cold biased. They're consistently showing highs in the middle-30s for here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#26
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:58 AM

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NAM is insanely cold biased. They're consistently showing highs in the middle-30s for here.

I agree, but that is a pretty darn strong HP coming down from the Dakotas.  Clear skies, light wind...might do the trick.



#27
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:00 AM

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I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

 

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#28
GDR

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:04 AM

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I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.

patients it's only October!
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#29
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:06 AM

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patients it's only October!

Everybody in Nebraska is on edge because of this though. We have had so many opportunities taken away because of dry air, and this can be added to the list.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#30
jaster220

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:15 AM

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I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

 

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.

 

ROFLMAO   :lol:  :lol:  (should e-mail her, she'd prolly whip one up for ya to record)



#31
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:44 AM

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If/When MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.

Edit:
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#32
Money

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Snow in October is pointless

#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Snow in October is pointless


It is, but I'd rather be subjected to rain or no storm at all than have any chances wiped out by lack of moisture. Yes, if we had moisture it'd be a half inch, but this is what has killed us so much lately and my frustration is carrying over from last season.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#34
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Both NAM resolutions are buying into an Easterly track shift. Not too upset about that. It's a clipper anyway.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#35
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:48 AM

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If MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.

No way we get 3-4” from this. Light snow mostly falling during the day in Oct is difficult to accumulate, especially when temps are marginal. Models are overdone imo.

On a related note, there has been measurable snow in Oct only 3 times here in the last 20 years, for a total of 3.5”. So if we got 3-4” on Friday it would be an extremely rare event.
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#36
Stormgeek

Posted 25 October 2017 - 08:58 AM

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If MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.


I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

#37
jaster220

Posted 25 October 2017 - 09:01 AM

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I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

 

ORD couldn't scrounge 4 FLAKES in Jan-Feb, did you forget?  :huh:


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#38
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 09:59 AM

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I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

That was the intention of the post and not so much that MSP was going to get close to that much snow.  It is a sad stat and show you just how bad last season was.  In that regard, it's something to keep in the back of your mind when the first advisory worth snow event comes knocking on your doorstep.

 

No way we get 3-4” from this. Light snow mostly falling during the day in Oct is difficult to accumulate, especially when temps are marginal. Models are overdone imo.

On a related note, there has been measurable snow in Oct only 3 times here in the last 20 years, for a total of 3.5”. So if we got 3-4” on Friday it would be an extremely rare event.

I didn't necessarily mean you were going to get that much, just pointing out a eye popping statistic as to how long its been seeing a 3"+ snow event in 24 hours.


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#39
snowstorm83

Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Lol there's no need to be sad about a threat that was never really there in the first place, it's October and there plenty of winter ahead. I'm just happy it's getting colder at least. I definitely think there's a high chance we'll have a measurable snow before thanksgiving.
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#40
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:28 AM

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That was the intention of the post and not so much that MSP was going to get close to that much snow.  It is a sad stat and show you just how bad last season was.  In that regard, it's something to keep in the back of your mind when the first advisory worth snow event comes knocking on your doorstep.
 

I didn't necessarily mean you were going to get that much, just pointing out a eye popping statistic as to how long its been seeing a 3"+ snow event in 24 hours.


Yeah I know you didn’t mean that we were going to get that much, Tom. It’s all good buddy. Looking forward to some flakes as I rake leaves. Good stuff.
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#41
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:44 AM

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Euro shlammers WI/U.P. border with 15". 2-5" amounts covering Minnesota. MSP with 1-3".


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#42
jaster220

Posted 25 October 2017 - 11:51 AM

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WSWatches expanded eastward to include The Arrowhead of MN  :)   Far north is the right place for #winter to be showing up first. We still need autumn down here, lol

 



#43
Stormgeek

Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:19 PM

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MSP afternoon AFD a pretty standard discussion for these earlier systems; not sure on temperature gradients and how quickly the atmosphere will be able to chill enough to change p-type. Sounds like they have a general idea of track, citing that the euro shifted east just a tiny bit, so they shadowed that. So, it basically all comes down to temps and timing which is quite typical of early season systems. Heard on the radio on my way home that a ski resort may be trying to make snow in these next couple chilly days and could open as soon as next Monday! Crazy weather we are having.


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#44
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:43 PM

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From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der!

Attached Files


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#45
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:47 PM

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From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der!


Not a bad 1st snow day I’d say! As you said, build that glacier early.
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#46
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 October 2017 - 12:52 PM

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MPX steady as she goes for now, but says stay tuned:

For now, the forecast is not dramatically different
from the previous forecast, although the max area is shifted
slightly east with slightly eastward shift in the ECMWF and other
solutions. It will be prudent to continue to monitor forecast
updates and trends in the forecast, since higher accumulations
could certainly occur in some areas, including the Twin Cities
metro, should the changeover occur sooner, the snow:liquid ratios
be higher, and/or the higher model QPF forecasts verify.
Regardless, accumulation should certainly occur more readily over
grassy/natural surfaces vs pavement, but snow will always
accumulate (even on pavement) if snowfall rates become sufficient.

#47
Tom

Posted 25 October 2017 - 03:16 PM

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You guys in MN should have quite the "slap" in the face from Ol' Man Winter with 40+ mph wind gusts and snow driving sideways.  That's going to be a fun looking scene.  Everything will be caked with snow, esp if its a wetter variety which it will likely be.


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#48
james1976

Posted 25 October 2017 - 07:50 PM

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DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast!
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#49
St Paul Storm

Posted 26 October 2017 - 04:32 AM

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Just west of the MSP metro should do well. Looks like 1-2” possible here north of St Paul with gusts 40-50mph. Pretty cool when the local office uses words like frontogenesis and deformation band for the first snow of the season. Let’s hope it’s the start of a very good winter.
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#50
jaster220

Posted 26 October 2017 - 04:40 AM

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DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast!

 

These guys like N Iowa for snow:

 


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