10/26-10/28 Upper MW/GL's Snow System

[Tom]

Who's ready for their first snows???  Forget about first flakes, Mother Nature is deciding to lay down the north's first accumulating snows of this early winter, excuse me, late fall season!  Models are now beginning to converge on a hybrid clipper type system diving in from the Canadian prairies of Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northwoods and eventually western GL's.  There is a lot of blocking around so expect to see models toss some more surprises going forward.

 

Needless to say, today's 12z Euro has turned this system into a rather potent storm with a lot of moisture and enough cold air to lay down some wet snow.  Temps on the Euro are warmer than the GFS so these details need to be ironed out as we get closer.  Dust off those snow shovels and snow blowers....Ol' Man Winter is coming!

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_138.png

 

 

 

 

E NE may even get some snow flakes???

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_138.png

[james1976]

[Minny_Weather]

If we get actual moisture we'll get snow. Simple as that. We cannot get snow under the

[james1976]

Can't wait to read pm AFD's.

[jaster220]

@ Maps

 

Wow, Huron Mountains west of MQT gonna get walloped! Their trees just went bare a week ago. I feel that'll be a common story around this area as autumn gets the squeeze play between summer-n-winter. 

[james1976]

Do you guys happpen to know what the wind profiles are looking like with the latest models? Isobars seemed fairly tight.

[Jaycee]

If we get actual moisture we'll get snow. Simple as that. We cannot get snow under the

 

 

My biggest concern as well. It's been abnormally dry here, and I'm afraid this system won't pull down enough humidity for us to get any.

[Tom]

@ Maps

 

Wow, Huron Mountains west of MQT gonna get walloped! Their trees just went bare a week ago. I feel that'll be a common story around this area as autumn gets the squeeze play between summer-n-winter.

I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.

[jaster220]

I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.

 

I know '95 was the super early winter conditions, but '96 also set in early and hard iirc. Would be great way to kick-off your winter fun! 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm excited for the next NAM run. 12z was bringing moisture into the area on the head end of the storm system. THAT would be a perfect scenario which would possibly lead to accumulations here.

[Tom]

Only 11 more days till we see the models come in an hour earlier...can’t wait, we are tracking systems a lot earlier this year.

[jaster220]

I'm excited for the next NAM run. 12z was bringing moisture into the area on the head end of the storm system. THAT would be a perfect scenario which would possibly lead to accumulations here.

 

Weren't you just yesterday calling it storm fail? Or was that a different system all together? 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO / NAM / CMC really starting to come south with Fridays system. Should give us steady snow showers late Friday night if trends hold!

[Minny_Weather]

Weren't you just yesterday calling it storm fail? Or was that a different system all together?

I never called it a fail. I said it's October so there's no use in getting hopes up.

[Niko]

Let the party start then. Woohoooooo!!!

 

FWIW: I might see some snowflakes on Sunday, especially early in the day.

[james1976]

DMX not excited about any snow chances. Scattered with little to no accumulation which is prolly realistic.

[Stormgeek]

DMX not excited about any snow chances. Scattered with little to no accumulation which is prolly realistic.

MSP not too excited either about snow chances, saying the eastern forecast area will be too warm for much if I am reading it correctly.

[westMJim]

I’ve been already thinking about the ski resorts up there. They will likely be open for Thanksgiving week. I have no doubt about that. I forgot what year it was, but my brother and I went up north to Indianhead Mtn ski resort during Thanksgiving and they already had a couple feet of snow OTG. I think it was in ‘96 bc I was a Froshman in HS back then. Might consider doing that again this year with some friends.

Here are some November snow fall amounts for Marquette. High side 53.0” in 2014. 48.9” in 1991.41.7”in 1989.  40.3”in 2008. low side 2.5” in 1990. 4.6” in 2009.  6.7” in 2015. 8.0” in 2004. All time reported November lowest (as reported) 1” in 1885. For the season the all-time snowiest was 319.9 in 2001/02 and the least snow was 53.9” in the 1940/41 season 

[Niko]

As of now..this storm in SEMI will be provided just rain and drawing in some warmer air ahead of the storm. Temps will rise in the 60s b4 falling towards the end of the weekend into the 40s for highs with clearing conditions. Actually, Saturday looks pretty decent after some morning light rain. Overall, a nice weekend shaping up weatherwise for SEMI.

[St Paul Storm]

MSP not too excited either about snow chances, saying the eastern forecast area will be too warm for much if I am reading it correctly.

The 12z Euro temps weren’t good but the GFS showed a better scenario for us. Still a few days to see if we get anything more than a few wet flakes.

[Minny_Weather]

I just want measurable snow. We are overdue for measurable snow in October, last time it happened was 2009. I'll even be fine with 0.1".

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

 

 

 

00z Euro with more realistic totals...still have to consider the warm grounds though...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102500/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102500/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

[Tom]

06z NAM...

 

 

[Niko]

Just a few light showers for MBY with this storm and turning colder behind this system. Perhaps a few flurries at best!

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is insanely cold biased. They're consistently showing highs in the middle-30s for here.

[Tom]

NAM is insanely cold biased. They're consistently showing highs in the middle-30s for here.

I agree, but that is a pretty darn strong HP coming down from the Dakotas.  Clear skies, light wind...might do the trick.

[Minny_Weather]

I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

 

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.

[GDR]

I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

 

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.

patients it's only October!

[Minny_Weather]

patients it's only October!

Everybody in Nebraska is on edge because of this though. We have had so many opportunities taken away because of dry air, and this can be added to the list.

[jaster220]

I want to sing a Taylor Swift-style song about dry air.

 

12z NAM jumping on the dry air bandwagon. NAM was basically our last hope of seeing accumulating snow.

 

ROFLMAO       (should e-mail her, she'd prolly whip one up for ya to record)

[Tom]

If/When MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.

 

Edit:

[Money]

Snow in October is pointless

[Minny_Weather]

Snow in October is pointless

It is, but I'd rather be subjected to rain or no storm at all than have any chances wiped out by lack of moisture. Yes, if we had moisture it'd be a half inch, but this is what has killed us so much lately and my frustration is carrying over from last season.

[Minny_Weather]

Both NAM resolutions are buying into an Easterly track shift. Not too upset about that. It's a clipper anyway.

[St Paul Storm]

If MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.

No way we get 3-4” from this. Light snow mostly falling during the day in Oct is difficult to accumulate, especially when temps are marginal. Models are overdone imo.

 

On a related note, there has been measurable snow in Oct only 3 times here in the last 20 years, for a total of 3.5”. So if we got 3-4” on Friday it would be an extremely rare event.

[Stormgeek]

If MSP gets 3-4" from this system, it will be the most snow in one 24 hour period since all the way back in Dec 16th, 2017.

I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

[jaster220]

I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

 

ORD couldn't scrounge 4 FLAKES in Jan-Feb, did you forget? 

[Tom]

I have a hard time thinking this would ever happen with the this system, but man that statistic shows just how bad last winter was. Not getting more than 4 inches in a 24 hour period... Ouch.

That was the intention of the post and not so much that MSP was going to get close to that much snow.  It is a sad stat and show you just how bad last season was.  In that regard, it's something to keep in the back of your mind when the first advisory worth snow event comes knocking on your doorstep.

 

No way we get 3-4” from this. Light snow mostly falling during the day in Oct is difficult to accumulate, especially when temps are marginal. Models are overdone imo.

 

On a related note, there has been measurable snow in Oct only 3 times here in the last 20 years, for a total of 3.5”. So if we got 3-4” on Friday it would be an extremely rare event.

I didn't necessarily mean you were going to get that much, just pointing out a eye popping statistic as to how long its been seeing a 3"+ snow event in 24 hours.

[snowstorm83]

Lol there's no need to be sad about a threat that was never really there in the first place, it's October and there plenty of winter ahead. I'm just happy it's getting colder at least. I definitely think there's a high chance we'll have a measurable snow before thanksgiving.

[St Paul Storm]

That was the intention of the post and not so much that MSP was going to get close to that much snow.  It is a sad stat and show you just how bad last season was.  In that regard, it's something to keep in the back of your mind when the first advisory worth snow event comes knocking on your doorstep.

 

 

I didn't necessarily mean you were going to get that much, just pointing out a eye popping statistic as to how long its been seeing a 3"+ snow event in 24 hours.

Yeah I know you didn’t mean that we were going to get that much, Tom. It’s all good buddy. Looking forward to some flakes as I rake leaves. Good stuff.