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November 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Here's the US precip % map from November 2007. The plains and upper midwest were bone dry. I recorded 0.04" of precip. The winter of '07-'08 was the best in my lifetime, with a record 61 inches of snow. The precip map for this November so far actually looks somewhat similar to this.

Nov07PNormUS.png

What a year that was... Just goes to show that anything can happen. A dry November does not mean a dry winter. I ended up with 120" that year, but was bone dry in Nov.

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Here's the US precip % map from November 2007.  The plains and upper midwest were bone dry.  I recorded 0.04" of precip.  The winter of '07-'08 was the best in my lifetime, with a record 61 inches of snow.  The precip map for this November so far actually looks somewhat similar to this.

It's always interesting how big of a difference a couple hundred miles makes. That year was overall unimpressive for us. Temperature wise and snow wise. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The individual 12z Euro 6-hr frames showed this energy in multiple pieces, one sheared out in N MN/S C.A. and the other piece coming out of SE CO/SE KS/N IL and phasing into one system over N MI.  It could just be one run but it certainly could be a possibility.  I'd like to see it come out in one piece for obvious reasons, but this is so far out that it's just "talk" at the moment.

By coming out in one piece, I presume you mean the southern piece. With it being mild ahead of it, that prolly argues against that scenario moreso. Just hard to fight climo , as it should be really. Because of the strong parallels with 2013, a local poster is really keen on the severe potential due to the irony of the 11-17-13 storm.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tuesday evening right as it was hitting the freezing mark, I dashed outside and cut 5 fully blooming roses off my wife's rose bush to preserve them in a vase as she had asked because of the expected hard freeze. Two evenings later and it's snowing and blowing like winter! Never remember anything close to this tbh

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOT came out with a SWS:

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
852 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017

ILZ014-INZ001-002-101000-
Cook-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Chicago, Gary, and Valparaiso
852 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017

...Lake Effect Snow Showers Late Tonight and Friday...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to impact locations near
the lake in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana late tonight
into Friday morning. Under the more intense snow, periodic
visibility reduction to below one mile will be possible. Minor
snow accumulations of around one, to possibly two inches in some
spots,
may provide slippery conditions if able to accumulate on
the pavement. Those with travel plans near the lake in northeast
Illinois and northwest Indiana Friday morning should be prepared
for possible hazardous driving conditions, and monitor later
forecast updates.
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Right after dinner reservations, I walked out from the restaurant and into a snowsquall. Snowshowers have dusted my area. Roads are slick. Temps are holding at 25F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ Niko, snow showers knocking on your doorstep buddy!  Jaster may have had some flakes flying a bit ago as well.  

 

@WestMjim, how's the flake size?  Are they the fluffy LES variety?

Indeed, snowshowers have whiten up cartops and alittle on grassy surfaces. It looks awesome out there. Snowshowers are still flying around.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A old meteorologist friend of mine said that he believes anywhere east to north east of I 35 Will be in the prime spot this year. He said there could be some monsters around the Great Lakes this year.

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A old meteorologist friend of mine said that he believes anywhere east to north east of I 35 Will be in the prime spot this year. He said there could be some monsters around the Great Lakes this year.

We like monsters! Pls send 'em over!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We like monsters! Pls send 'em over!

 

Already down to 9F here and that’s the forecasted low. The winds are now calm and I think we bottom out a few degrees lower yet. The low lying spots in W WI might crack negative single digits tonight. Very impressive for early Nov.

WOW..this is more in line w December standards, not November. Major Arctic Outbreak, for sure. Short-Lived, but intense enough.

 

We want all monster storms this year! :lol: :P ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Congrats to any peoples with snow tonight!

 

Cold is overperforming everywhere tonight. Already down to 25.5* on my balcony. We should easily make it well into the teens tonight.

Dusting everywhere and still coming down w occasionally getting a break from time to time and then, outta nowhere, squalls redevelop.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What a year that was... Just goes to show that anything can happen. A dry November does not mean a dry winter. I ended up with 120" that year, but was bone dry in Nov.

Drought and snow actually go better together than you think. 2013-14 was actually extremely dry here throughout the winter all the way to May but had plenty of snow.

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-13F at 11:59pm 11/9 at I-falls. This breaks the old minimum record for 11/9 of 0F last set in 1979 by 13F!!! It also falls just one day short of the -13F on 11/8/2003 of being the earliest temp reported in the negative teens at I-Falls. 11/10 AM low should (need -14F) be the coldest temp ever recorded so early in I-FALLS in recorded history which begun in March of 1895.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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-13F at 11:59pm 11/9 at I-falls. This breaks the old minimum record for 11/9 of 0F last set in 1979 by 13F!!! It also falls just one day short of the -13F on 11/8/2003 of being the earliest temp reported in the negative teens at I-Falls. 11/10 AM low should (need -14F) be the coldest temp ever recorded so early in I-FALLS in recorded history which begun in March of 1895.

Ummm, that's kinda a big deal. Wow!

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This early cold is certainly very impressive.  Now can we please get some precipitation to come with it for the love of God?  We have had a very hard time getting the temps and precip to line up correctly.  Seems like every year when it's cold it's dry and when it's warm it's wet.  I can't take another dry and frigid winter like 13/14.  I guess the good news is barring a major pattern change we should atleast have a shot at a front loaded winter for once.  I would take cold and snowy through New Years and then a warmup after that.

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This early cold is certainly very impressive. Now can we please get some precipitation to come with it for the love of God? We have had a very hard time getting the temps and precip to line up correctly. Seems like every year when it's cold it's dry and when it's warm it's wet. I can't take another dry and frigid winter like 13/14. I guess the good news is barring a major pattern change we should atleast have a shot at a front loaded winter for once. I would take cold and snowy through New Years and then a warmup after that.

If you live in western Nebraska you are probably going to have a rough time getting precip for awhile.

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A old meteorologist friend of mine said that he believes anywhere east to north east of I 35 Will be in the prime spot this year. He said there could be some monsters around the Great Lakes this year.

I agree. This is my forecast to a T. 1917, 1978, and 2000 looking good and we're chosen as analogs for this type of weather pattern.

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ORD is reporting -SN with a record tying low temp of 18F!  #Winter has arrived...I have some flurries flying as we speak and I wasn't expecting anything yet till later this morning.  So, officially (in my book), I've seen my first flakes!  

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As impressive as this cold is, it's just as impressive to see LES on 11/10 in Chicago.  I can't remember having it this early in the season.  #TisTheSeason

 

On another note, the snow is not melting on contact as the roadways are frozen over from the cold.

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Well here at my house the ground is white as there is 0.4” of snow on the ground. Its on the grass, roofs and the road. The wind blew some off the cars and roofs but they too are white.  It looks like the airport did not get this snow and the temperatures might show that as the low at the airport so far is 18° and here at my house it was 13° and that is the current temperature here.

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Woke up and my porch was at 21.7*, the arrow pointed up which means that temperatures have warmed. 

 

Water glass first freeze date: 11/10/2017. Impressive. Had I put it out Oct 27 it probably would have been then tho.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Even if the official low ends up being 18° at the airport this will be the 2nd  coldest low for November 10th at Grand Rapids for this date (the record low is 16° in 1957) and only the 2nd time it has gotten into the teens for this date.

Today is the anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975.  From 1816 to 1975 at least 240 ships have been lost in the Whitefish Bay area.  The southern shore of Lake Superior between Grand Marais, Michigan, and Whitefish Point is known as the “Graveyard of the Great Lakes” and more ships have been lost around the Whitefish Point area than any other part of Lake Superior.

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