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November 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#851
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:21 PM

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I find freezing fog to be fascinating.


It’s fascinating, beautiful and extremely dangerous all at the same time. I nearly wiped out on my driveway this morning as I was walking to get the paper. And because of that I forgot to snap a few pics. Ha!
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#852
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:23 PM

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It’s fascinating, beautiful and extremely dangerous all at the same time. I nearly wiped out on my driveway this morning as I was walking to get the paper. And because of that I forgot to snap a few pics. Ha!

:D

 

BTW: Next week looks wintry for a lot of us. Cold air will be getting locked in and will give opportunity for snows.


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#853
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:44 PM

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BTW: Next week looks wintry for a lot of us. Cold air will be getting locked in and will give opportunity for snows.

Stop discriminating against Nebraskans. Where's my safe space?


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#854
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:00 PM

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Stop discriminating against Nebraskans. Where's my safe space?

Further east! :D


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#855
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:19 PM

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Further east! :D


Oh you son of a... :rolleyes:

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#856
NEJeremy

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:31 PM

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I’ve been on this forum for probably 5 winters and each fall has begun the same I’d say. It seems like every year the initial long term models or forecasts by other members here have either looked good for Nebraska or at least not horrible. Everyone gets excited with optimism. Then the models/forecasts realize where we’re talking about and ultimately another winter ends up being a big crap fest. Obviously when you only have 7” of snow in a winter, that sucks no matter how you look at it, but what I think makes it seem that much worse around here is we’re also having to “compete” with other members on this forum that are from a part of the country that should always get way more snow than us climatologically anyway. Omaha’s average is basically 2’ total each year.
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#857
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:37 PM

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I’ve been on this forum for probably 5 winters and each fall has begun the same I’d say. It seems like every year the initial long term models or forecasts by other members here have either looked good for Nebraska or at least not horrible. Everyone gets excited with optimism. Then the models/forecasts realize where we’re talking about and ultimately another winter ends up being a big crap fest. Obviously when you only have 7” of snow in a winter, that sucks no matter how you look at it, but what I think makes it seem that much worse around here is we’re also having to “compete” with other members on this forum that are from a part of the country that should always get way more snow than us climatologically anyway. Omaha’s average is basically 2’ total each year.


*GLs posters posting from their igloos surrounded by 20" of snow while Omaha and Lincoln are fixing to have their first snowless winter on record* Your storm is coming Nebraska! It's February. Still a ton of Winter left!

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#858
james1976

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:42 PM

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LNK_Weather should be a stand up comedian. Seriously love your posts!!!
​It does suck for Nebraska winter enthusiasts though. It's hard for your region to get a clipper or a cutter. Heck, even in Iowa we have to get pretty lucky to cash in on a lot of those.
That being said......it's only mid-November and most of the action has been up north so far. As winter settles in everything should come south with future cycles. So lets be patient. I know it's hard to do!


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#859
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:10 AM

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Nebraska people. Stay away from the models this morning. Just do it if you want to maintain your sanity.

They show the cold air at Thanksgiving again though.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#860
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:45 AM

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Both GEFS/EPS are starting to show more wintry ensemble members for the Upper MW/GL's/Midwest region right around Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  Keeping an eye on an interesting clipper-type system rounding the base of the developing eastern CONUS trough next Wed/Thu period.  These are always interesting systems as they can be slow movers and buckle into a larger potential storm instead of zipping on by.


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#861
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:54 AM

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The freezing fog this morning is a cool sight to see.  Looks like the main focus of the fog across our subforum is along I-80...how does that folklore go again???  6 weeks later we can expect a I-80 special??

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#862
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:02 AM

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Currently 37F and cloudy w a few flurries flying around. WCF in the upper 20s.



#863
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:04 AM

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Both GEFS/EPS are starting to show more wintry ensemble members for the Upper MW/GL's/Midwest region right around Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  Keeping an eye on an interesting clipper-type system rounding the base of the developing eastern CONUS trough next Wed/Thu period.  These are always interesting systems as they can be slow movers and buckle into a larger potential storm instead of zipping on by.

My forecast at that timeframe looks wintry.



#864
GDR

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:09 AM

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Interesting clipper around Thanksgiving to say the least. Worth watching closely!
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#865
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:12 AM

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Oh you son of a... :rolleyes:

:lol:


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#866
bud2380

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:31 AM

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Just waiting for something...anything to show up in the long term on the models.    

 

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png



#867
Thunder98

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:38 AM

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*GLs posters posting from their igloos surrounded by 20" of snow while Omaha and Lincoln are fixing to have their first snowless winter on record* Your storm is coming Nebraska! It's February. Still a ton of Winter left!

 

Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

62v0KCW.png

 

wucjO8E.png


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#868
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:17 AM

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LNK_Weather should be a stand up comedian. Seriously love your posts!!!
​It does suck for Nebraska winter enthusiasts though. It's hard for your region to get a clipper or a cutter. Heck, even in Iowa we have to get pretty lucky to cash in on a lot of those.
That being said......it's only mid-November and most of the action has been up north so far. As winter settles in everything should come south with future cycles. So lets be patient. I know it's hard to do!

 

To the underlined - totally agree with that! He brings the best wx comedy of any poster I've seen anywhere. Hilarious stuff!

 

To the bolded. Great reminder words. It's not like us SMI peeps have 2 foot OTG or something? I'm still looking for my 1st legit flakes after all. Then there's the whole climo deal where my avg is double SENE just on moisture patterns alone. There's a reason forest is the natural foliage here, and grasslands out there. Forest needs a certain amt of moisture, or it just can't thrive. As for frustrating seasons, we get 'em too. They're the ones when the pattern has every SLP get really amped right off the Rockies, then die as soon as it crosses the Mississippi river. Those are painful seasons. You see this awesome bliz raging out in the Plains, and it's heading right in your direction and all looks perfect..then it just turns into a weak turd, a dusting by the time it gets here, and you're like "omg, what did I just witness here"??   :wacko:



#869
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:17 AM

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The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

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#870
NEJeremy

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:21 AM

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Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

62v0KCW.png

 

wucjO8E.png

Yeah SF is basically 160 miles north of Omaha, so pretty big difference for sure. Last year, when we had our 11", I believe there was a town called Little Sioux, IA which is about 40 miles north of here that had between 35-40" of snow, so 3x the amount of snow in only 40 miles difference. Even my parents in Yankton, SD had almost 50" last year and they're about 100 miles north of here.


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#871
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:41 AM

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Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

62v0KCW.png

 

wucjO8E.png

Wow, I didn't know Omaha got screwed over more than Lincoln, besides last winter. At least in 2014-15 we had 10" OTG at one point in February here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#872
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:57 AM

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The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

Man, look at that dome of frigid air just waiting to pour down on us.



#873
Thunder98

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:58 AM

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The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

The Beast is about to be awaken.


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#874
NEJeremy

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:59 AM

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Wow, I didn't know Omaha got screwed over more than Lincoln, besides last winter. At least in 2014-15 we had 10" OTG at one point in February here.

It's funny, I knew of course it's been bad for the last several years, but I had already forgotten just how bad the numbers from 2013-2015 were. Dear God, those are horrible!



#875
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Few flurries still flying around, but about to end. Temps max should reach low to mid 40s later on. Still BA. My normal H/L for this time of the year is at 48/35.



#876
NebraskaWX

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:24 AM

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It's funny, I knew of course it's been bad for the last several years, but I had already forgotten just how bad the numbers from 2013-2015 were. Dear God, those are horrible!

 

Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much :(


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#877
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:44 AM

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I'm liking the looks of the pattern heading towards Blackout Wednesday (typically known as one of the annual biggest club nights of the year).  That clipper is looking more intriguing for those Midwesterners and Lower Lakes posters.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png


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#878
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:51 AM

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I'm liking the looks of the pattern heading towards Blackout Wednesday (typically known as one of the annual biggest club nights of the year).  That clipper is looking more intriguing for those Midwesterners and Lower Lakes posters.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

Indeed, my forecast next week looks snowy. This clipper type system has potential for some disruption.



#879
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:27 AM

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Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much :(


STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#880
NebraskaWX

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:47 AM

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STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

 

Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"

 

 

heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#881
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:50 AM

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There's that SLP slot position per 12z GEFS which is "fitting" this year's LRC.  How will this evolve for the Thanksgiving travel week???  That's a strong looking Dakota's block right there.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_34.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_37.png



#882
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:50 AM

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Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"


heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif


Oh no, my igloo is surrounded by another 5' of snow. Oh no, Nebraskans are complaining about lack of snow again.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#883
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:53 AM

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Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much :(

 

STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

 

We just ALL need to move up THERE!!  I swear, every winter that area is buried!  :o

 

Attached File  20171113 Canada snow for all!.JPG   44.31KB   0 downloads


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#884
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:55 AM

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We just ALL need to move up THERE!!  I swear, every winter that area is buried!  :o

 

attachicon.gif20171113 Canada snow for all!.JPG

Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time.  ;)



#885
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:56 AM

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There's that SLP slot position per 12z GEFS which is "fitting" this year's LRC.  How will this evolve for the Thanksgiving travel week???  That's a strong looking Dakota's block right there.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_34.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

 

By those maps, it just gets squished to nothing by that monstrous bully HP, which is the extreme neg AO at work?



#886
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:58 AM

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Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time.  ;)

 

LOL, that was my mantra the past two seasons..and, we know how well that worked out  :rolleyes:



#887
Money

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:58 AM

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Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"


heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif


NebraskaWX is an interesting name considering according to you guys you don’t see any
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#888
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:00 AM

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We just ALL need to move up THERE!! I swear, every winter that area is buried! :o

20171113 Canada snow for all!.JPG


My dad used to work in Quebec City. He's worked in many different cities across the US and Canada. He said Quebec City Winters we're the most brutal.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#889
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:01 AM

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NebraskaWX is an interesting name considering according to you guys you don’t see any

I bet you're fun at a party.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#890
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:02 AM

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Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time.  ;)

 

LOL, that was my mantra the past two seasons..and, we know how well that worked out  :rolleyes:



#891
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:02 AM

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By those maps, it just gets squished to nothing by that monstrous bully HP, which is the extreme neg AO at work?

At this juncture, you won't get any definitive clarity this far out.  This system has a lot that can go for it, and a lot that can squash it just like you mentioned.  Although, you can argue that systems have had a better chance this season to develop.  Personally, this storm has a good chance if it can develop near the Rockies.


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#892
Money

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:02 AM

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I bet you're fun at a party.


Ha coming from a guy who gets mad that a computer model 200+ hours out isn’t showing snow for you

#893
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:03 AM

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Most trees here have gone completely bare. The few outside my window, however, have the leaves at an ugly grayish shade now. I want them gone. They're unpleasant to look at.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#894
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:05 AM

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Ha coming from a guy who gets mad that a computer model 200+ hours out isn’t showing snow for you

Considering for here they verify 99% of the time I don't find that to be unreasonable. Says the one that has likely never lived here or anywhere close to here, especially in the past few years.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#895
Money

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:06 AM

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Considering for here they verify 99% of the time I don't find that to be unreasonable. Says the one that has likely never lived here or anywhere close to here, especially in the past few years.


You can’t control weather and whatever happens is going to happen regardless. Complaining about it does nothing

#896
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:07 AM

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Attached File  GFSCGP_prec_precacc_207.png   79.26KB   0 downloads

 

This reminds me of when I was in high school band and we would be SURROUNDED by rain but not have a single drop hit us so practice kept on going.

 

No, seriously. One time we were surrounded.

 

I'm wondering if our bad luck last Winter was my fault for being here.  :(


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#897
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:08 AM

LNK_Weather

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You can’t control weather and whatever happens is going to happen regardless. Complaining about it does nothing

And what does complaining about us do? Turns this thread irrelevant. Even with our (rightful) complaining we're still talking about weather, now aren't we?


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#898
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:11 AM

Tom

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Trends from the 12z GEFS are a bit more snowier across the Plains/Midwest/GL's.  Things are looking up, not down, so we all just need to chillzzzzzzzzz....Happy Monday!

 

snod.conus.png


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#899
Money

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:16 AM

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And what does complaining about us do? Turns this thread irrelevant. Even with our (rightful) complaining we're still talking about weather, now aren't we?


You have a thread to complain in.

#900
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:20 AM

Tom

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Allow the pattern to evolve, once we get into the part of this year's cycling pattern where the Hudson Bay vortex gets replaced by a ridge (just after the 17th), the jet cuts underneath just like it did in late October  During this period, the pattern will be blocked up, including, but not limited to, the intra-seasonal shifts of the jet, we will probably end up seeing a couple of storms that can "share the wealth".  It's my first stab at what I think will happen once we get into the middle of Thanksgiving week and into that following holiday weekend.  There are 2 systems which I'm looking for, the first, of which, is targeted during the 11/21 - 11/22 period...the second 11/25 - 11/26....patience grasshoppers.


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