November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Mid-January looking scene NIGHTMARE on the I-90/94...wash, rinse, repeat this Winter???

 

 

See correction above..^^^

 

 

Just beyond the 240 hour time frame here. 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017111012/264/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

 

Yeah, "low party" for SWMI. Only sucky thing for an otherwise awesome map. d10 map tho, so shifts +/- tbd

[Minny_Weather]

If you live in Nebraska don't bother looking ( I did BTW).

HA. Thanks for the warning

[Jaycee]

If you live in Nebraska don't bother looking  ( I did BTW).

 

 

Good god it was brutal. Honestly blows my mind how these storms miss our ENTIRE STATE. Look at the low locations and strengths of them even when they're west of here!! They'd be perfect for us if you were to just look at it at certain frames.

 

 

Everyone look at this right here. I actually really want someone to explain to me how tf this happens:

 

 

 

Example #1:

 

 

 

 

Example #2:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd really like to have some explanation on this if someone could maybe figure it out? I guess I just don't see any reason that these storms have essentially formed west of us, but don't drop any precip at all over the entire state??

[Tom]

ORD officially reported 0.1" of snow, recording it's first measurable snow of the season.. Historically, ORD receives it's first measurable snow on 11/16.

 

Good god it was brutal. Honestly blows my mind how these storms miss our ENTIRE STATE. Look at the low locations and strengths of them even when they're west of here!! They'd be perfect for us if you were to just look at it at certain frames.

 

 

Everyone look at this right here. I actually really want someone to explain to me how tf this happens:

 

 

 

Example #1:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_fh138-162.gif

 

 

 

Example #2:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_fh240-252.gif

 

 

 

 

 

I'd really like to have some explanation on this if someone could maybe figure it out? I guess I just don't see any reason that these storms have essentially formed west of us, but don't drop any precip at all over the entire state??

Definitely a sign of the SW ridge being rather strong and something the EPS/Euro weeklies have been showing....unfortunately.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, awesome stuff man! This weather pattern looks like it will be pretty crazy! What I have also found to be crazy this year is that 4 or 5 totally different forecasting methodologies have all arrived at the same conclusions. Winter looks awesome and I always enjoy your presentation of the pattern.

[GDR]

Wow that gfs run sure looks crazy! Man it could be another long winter for you Nebraska folks

[Jaycee]

ORD officially reported 0.1" of snow, recording it's first measurable snow of the season.. Historically, ORD receives it's first measurable snow on 11/16.

 

Definitely a sign of the SW ridge being rather strong and something the EPS/Euro weeklies have been showing....unfortunately.

 

Ah gotcha, thanks boss. Yeah that's certainly not a good sign for us. Crazy how EVERYONE east of here is all riled up, and rightfully so, but Nebraskans can't be. Gah. Might need to tap out of here for a few weeks.

 

 

In the meantime I'm going to put a bowl outside. When someone asks what it is, I'll just be like "it's a dust bowl" *drops mic and leaves forever*

[Tony]

Ah gotcha, thanks boss. Yeah that's certainly not a good sign for us. Crazy how EVERYONE east of here is all riled up, and rightfully so, but Nebraskans can't be. Gah. Might need to tap out of here for a few weeks.

 

 

In the meantime I'm going to put a bowl outside. When someone asks what it is, I'll just be like "it's a dust bowl" *drops mic and leaves forever*

Man, I hope you guys can really cash in this winter...you are due.

[Money]

What’s the link for the free euro maps again?

[jaster220]

Man, I hope you guys can really cash in this winter...you are due.

 

The Nebraskan snowlover's motto.."we're due!"   

 

For real tho, they are and I still feel that there will be times that the SW ridge relaxes enough that they'll be joining the party. Only question is can they maintain their sanity until then?? 

[St Paul Storm]

Not much snow for most of us, but a 968mb around Mackinac Island on that Euro run. Chuck ‘em deep!

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

[westMJim]

Not sure what the high will end up at here in Grand Rapids, but at this time the temperature is 26° with sunny skies. The coldest maximum temperature at GR for November 10^th is 27° in 1933 the 2^nd coldest is 29° in 1926 and 1913. While I had a low of 13° here at my house the official low at GRR was 17° and that is one degree above the record low for the date of 16° set in 1957. But this year will be the 2^nd coldest November 10^th in history. As a reading of 20° was in 2^nd place having occurred in 2003 and 1987. Now for anyone who thinks that having a cold day on November leads to a cold and snowy winter.  Well that has not been the case at least not for Grand Rapids. Here is a year by year break down. For the coldest maximum years. 1. 1933/34 there was only 38.1” of snow that winter the winter was mild but February was cold. 2. 1926/27 once again not much snow with only 37.5” and the winter as a whole was mild. 3. 1913/14 that winter Grand Rapids seen 57.2” of snow and December and January were mild but February was cold.  For the 3 top coldest lows for November 10^th 1. 1957/58 snow fall reported at Grand Rapids 70.5” winter once again December and January were mild but February was cold. 2. 1987/88 winter snow fall 74.0” and that winter was colder than average. And 3. 2003/04 that winter Grand Rapids recorded 62.4” of snow (similar to the last two winters) and that winter seen a cold January. So I guess one can not forecast a snowy winter (for Grand Rapids) based on a cold November 10^th but maybe one can say there is a higher chance of a colder that average February. But for snow fall all the years (with the coldest maximum and Minimums) for November 10^th were below average (at Grand Rapids) 

[jaster220]

Not much snow for most of us, but a 968mb around Mackinac Island on that Euro run. Chuck ‘em deep!

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

 

Don't know if you're being sarcastic there or what, but the Euro and GGEM were very accurate with the 10/23-24 bomb, and while some had the system about 5 mb deeper than the 979 mb reality, what the heck's so bad about that? What's a handful of mb's when you're talking those levels anyways? 

 

Allow me a moment to day dream on this..

 

 

[Snowlover76]

Ah gotcha, thanks boss. Yeah that's certainly not a good sign for us. Crazy how EVERYONE east of here is all riled up, and rightfully so, but Nebraskans can't be. Gah. Might need to tap out of here for a few weeks.

 

 

In the meantime I'm going to put a bowl outside. When someone asks what it is, I'll just be like "it's a dust bowl" *drops mic and leaves forever*

Might as well just give up at this point. I'm expecting DJF to be pretty far above normal temp wise

[St Paul Storm]

Don't know if you're being sarcastic there or what, but the Euro and GGEM were very accurate with the 10/23-24 bomb, and while some had the system about 5 mb deeper than the 979 mb reality, what the heck's so bad about that? What's a handful of mb's when you're talking those levels anyways? 

 

Allow me a moment to day dream on this..

 

20171110 12z 192hr Euro 500mb for Sat Nov 18.jpg

No sarcasm here. I remember how well the models did with the October bomb. I hope it happens again!

[jaster220]

Paging Major Tom!!  #raging #storm...GFS says cancel Turkey Day plans out west STAT! 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Those are pretty nice maps.

[Minny_Weather]

Might as well just give up at this point. I'm expecting DJF to be pretty far above normal temp wise

I'm not worried about temps, I think it'll be brutally cold at times. What I'm worried about is this being another 2013-14 for us, and that may very well happen at this point.

 

12z GFS has every storm system literally going AROUND the state. Oh my god.

[NEJeremy]

I'm not sure what happened to the lows coming out of the southwest/CO lows that were supposed to start this month. I remember it being said here earlier the pattern was going to switch that way around Thanksgiving. I could have also even swore I remember reading an update from Lezak where he said when the next cycle comes though after the 20th this month that it would be good for KC area. Instead the southeast ridge is gone or weak and we get a SW ridge with storms forming north and east of here. At least it will be good for travel for my family coming to Omaha for T-giving.

[gabel23]

I'm not worried about temps, I think it'll be brutally cold at times. What I'm worried about is this being another 2013-14 for us, and that may very well happen at this point.

 

12z GFS has every storm system literally going AROUND the state. Oh my god.

I'm with you but......we are a LONG WAYS out. Patience, I think we are gonna do just fine this year. Speaking on average, there is no way in god's green Earth we will have a snow season like last years. It doesn't get any worse than that. Plus, by my tracking from this past October, we are due in for a Colorado low right around thanksgiving time. Hopefully we can get a west/east storm system tracking through the upper mid west. 

[gabel23]

I'm not sure what happened to the lows coming out of the southwest/CO lows that were supposed to start this month. I remember it being said here earlier the pattern was going to switch that way around Thanksgiving. I could have also even swore I remember reading an update from Lezak where he said when the next cycle comes though after the 20th this month that it would be good for KC area. Instead the southeast ridge is gone or weak and we get a SW ridge with storms forming north and east of here. At least it will be good for travel for my family coming to Omaha for T-giving.

The computer models are full of errors. Gary is always strong on saying after 5 days the models are useless. Throw in the fact that the AO/NAO ar absolutely tanking; I'm gonna have to say that the models are clueless right now. With that being said, things look to get really interesting in and around thanksgiving. 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm with you but......we are a LONG WAYS out. Patience, I think we are gonna do just fine this year. Speaking on average, there is no way in god's green Earth we will have a snow season like last years. It doesn't get any worse than that. Plus, by my tracking from this past October, we are due in for a Colorado low right around thanksgiving time. Hopefully we can get a west/east storm system tracking through the upper mid west.

Climo-wise, it is impossible to have a season as bad as last for the 2nd year in a row. And seeing how this Winter will be colder than last one, I think we will get at least twice as much snow as we got quite a bit of rain last January and March. However, the source of our frustration comes from the fact that everybody around us is doing well, but we get nothing. Is this whole setup not completely reminiscent of 2012-13/2013-14?

[snowstorm83]

I'm not worried about temps, I think it'll be brutally cold at times. What I'm worried about is this being another 2013-14 for us, and that may very well happen at this point.

 

12z GFS has every storm system literally going AROUND the state. Oh my god.

 

Kind of funny that 2013-14 was also a bad winter in Nebraska. I'm from a MS suburb of Memphis and that was the worst winter I've ever experienced. I recorded 5 mornings in the single digits on my PWS and never saw more than a light dusting of snow. To put salt in the wound, there was several occasions where it was 33 degrees with a raging thunderstorm/pouring rain. It was a wild winter everywhere from Atlanta (famous snowjam), Birmingham, Little Rock, Dallas etc. while I got the shaft every storm. It was such a historic winter almost everywhere and my area was left out so I know how it feels.

[VMB443]

Our first real flakes coming down from off the lake - nice!

[Minny_Weather]

Kind of funny that 2013-14 was also a bad winter in Nebraska. I'm from a MS suburb of Memphis and that was the worst winter I've ever experienced. I recorded 5 mornings in the single digits on my PWS and never saw more than a light dusting of snow. To put salt in the wound, there was several occasions where it was 33 degrees with a raging thunderstorm/pouring rain. It was a wild winter everywhere from Atlanta (famous snowjam), Birmingham, Little Rock, Dallas etc. while I got the shaft every storm. It was such a historic winter almost everywhere and my area was left out so I know how it feels.

I lived in Houston that Winter. We had 4 days with frozen precip, which is very high for a city that averages less than 1 per year. We ended up with 3 WSWs that year.

[Tom]

Just got back from the gym and I'm surprised to see that it is still rather cloudy and flurries are falling from the sky.  Temps are holding in the upper 20's (28F to be exact) and probably stay in the 20's today.  Some spots still have hints of snow on the colder surfaces.  Today really stands out as the day that "woke up" millions in Chicago that a real winter is knocking on the door.  The roadways have become slick, no residual chemicals and there were no salt trucks on the road ways.  I'm thinking that they had no clue or felt there was no need to prep for this LES event.  Not a good idea since there were tons of traffic accidents all over the city.

[Tom]

The computer models are full of errors. Gary is always strong on saying after 5 days the models are useless. Throw in the fact that the AO/NAO ar absolutely tanking; I'm gonna have to say that the models are clueless right now. With that being said, things look to get really interesting in and around thanksgiving. 

If the blocking can somehow erode the weakness to the north near the U.S./Canadian border and bundle all the energy coming out of the Rockies, instead of it being split up, it would become a more favorable outcome.  This system still has a chance to become a CO low.  For instance, at HR 186 the Euro shows a very strong piece of energy swinging through S IA and then lifts into MI.  Lot's of potential with this storm and any solution is plausible.  The main jet energy with this system tracks through central CA/CO/KS/MO and this is when it bombs out.

 

12z EPS showing this weakness...

 

[Tom]

Are the NAM brothers up to something sneaky for Sat night/Sun???

 

[Tony]

Are the NAM brothers up to something sneaky for Sat night/Sun???

 

NAM is smoking some of that funny stuff..

[Tom]

NAM is smoking some of that funny stuff..

18z GFS now showing 1-2" for N IL...marginal event for sure, but I would not discount snow flying at night on Sat around here.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is smoking some of that funny stuff..

It's been pretty decent at catching sneaky stuff this year.

[Snowlover76]

I'm with you but......we are a LONG WAYS out. Patience, I think we are gonna do just fine this year. Speaking on average, there is no way in god's green Earth we will have a snow season like last years. It doesn't get any worse than that. Plus, by my tracking from this past October, we are due in for a Colorado low right around thanksgiving time. Hopefully we can get a west/east storm system tracking through the upper mid west.

Never say never

[St Paul Storm]

NAM also showing 2-3.5” here tonight. Not happening. I think the NAM forgot that a -4F dew point generally doesn’t yield much precip.

[Tony]

18z GFS now showing 1-2" for N IL...marginal event for sure, but I would not discount snow flying at night on Sat around here.

Very surprised that models latching onto some snow here. I might have to apologize to the NAM if this holds true!

[jaster220]

So GRR has one resident Met who's a winter wx geek, and by reading the AFD he did today, I can tell he's stoked about the potential starting next weekend..

 

Might be the longest AFD I've seen from that office!

 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 318 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

 

This coming week will for the most part we warmer than this past

week has been. We have two significant precipitation events we are

tracking. The first is mostly rain event in the Wednesday time

frame. Then there is a very impressive fall storm which will bring

winter back by the next weekend in a big way but not before giving

us a surge warmer air with the threat of thunderstorms during the

warm surge part of the system.

 

Looking at the overall upper air pattern that is driving our weather

this coming week, we see the polar jet being lifted north once again

to above 55N due to a rather zonal flow over the North Pacific.

However that does not stay that way long. As I wrote yesterday we

have two major systems crossing the Pacific this week. The first one

is over both Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska as I write this. The next

system is coming off the east coast of Asia from Japan to Kamchatka.

With a digging jet on the west side of the lead system, it closes

off at upper levels tomorrow just off the Pacific Northwest Coast.

However it does not stay there long as the upstream system sends out

a lead wave that shears it east into the CONUS. That becomes our

Wednesday system. However the more significant system for us is at

the end of the week. That is the system currently coming off the

coast of Asia. The lead wave from that system reloads the system in

the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. That gets sheared out when the

system from Asia gets east of the Dateline.

 

Here is the main point through. The GFS (due to time step issues at

longer ranges) pushes the system that reloaded the system over the

Gulf of Alaska to fast to the east, so it comes through the Great

Lakes to quickly. More likely the ECMWF solution, which is about a

day slower, will be the one that is closer to being correct. The

ECMWF does not shear that system through the Great Lakes like the

GFS is now doing and did yesterday, but stalls it over the Great

Lakes as a deep cut off low centered over Lake Superior. This would

still bring us the surge of warmer air but once the cold air comes

in late in the weekend it would stay around for several days, unlike

what is happening now.

 

So, we get shortwave ridging Monday and Tuesday, but that is

followed by the system currently off the west coast. This will bring

a surge of Gulf Moisture northward and mostly be a good soaking rain

Wednesday. Yes there could be some snow or freezing rain at the

start over our NE CWA early Wednesday but this will mostly be rain.

 

That system is shearing out so it will not bring in much cold air

behind it. Therefore Thursday would be dry with lows near freezing

in the morning and highs near 50 in the afternoon. Friday, based on

the GFS being to fast, would likely be another nice day with

increasing clouds and warmer temperatures.

 

 

.WEEK TWO...(SATURDAY through THURSDAY)

 

It is during this period the weather turns stormy. The GFS, ECMWF

and the Canadian all close the upper low off over the Great Lakes.

However the GFS is to fast (like it was last week for todays

system). Than means the warm surge rain and possible thunderstorms

will more likely be Saturday. Then once the cold front comes

through on Sunday, we would see the cold air (likely as cold as it

is today) surge in behind that system. Because this does not just

race through but stalls near here, we get a more westerly wind type

lake effect so all areas would see snow. Since this stalls near the

Great Lakes into Monday we would have prolonged lake effect event

too.This could be the first significant snowfall of the season for

this area if this turns out to be true.

 

This system should lift out of the area by Tuesday or Wednesday but

we would likely have a large polar high moving through the area so

colder than normal temperatures would likely last into Wednesday if

not longer.

[jaster220]

If the blocking can somehow erode the weakness to the north near the U.S./Canadian border and bundle all the energy coming out of the Rockies, instead of it being split up, it would become a more favorable outcome.  This system still has a chance to become a CO low.  For instance, at HR 186 the Euro shows a very strong piece of energy swinging through S IA and then lifts into MI.  Lot's of potential with this storm and any solution is plausible.  The main jet energy with this system tracks through central CA/CO/KS/MO and this is when it bombs out.

 

12z EPS showing this weakness...

 

If the tanking AO/NAO doesn't deliver on storm 1, pretty sure it pushes storm 2 south where we want it for all concerned

[jaster220]

18z GFS now showing 1-2" for N IL...marginal event for sure, but I would not discount snow flying at night on Sat around here.

Lol, ofc now that I finally have a back yard full of leafs that need raking!

[Niko]

 An exact 1st date of snowfall? From the critters? LOL  While I'm a firm believer in nature's signs, he must be talking with an escaped parrot or something to be getting that info.    Gonna go out on a limb here with the squirrels and say he'll bust this year. No way it takes til mid-Dec for that area to get first flakes. 

 

 

Highest I've seen so far was 14" - but could be some later updates. Still nice event 

 

 

Yeah, and for SWMI, I'd have to include 81-82 for the combo of cold and snow. It's interesting that season came 4 yrs after 77-78, much like this is coming 4 yrs after 13-14. Battle Creek just to my west had a long winter and some really nice depths in 81-82, even better than 13-14! 

 

BC 5NW 1981-82 Max SN depths.PNG

 

 

 

Congrats Amigo! and may you see many many more thru the season! 

 

 

Congrats ova there buddy! I saw some light showery stuff last evening, and stepped out this morning to a "deck dusting". Would be a "T" in the records, but I don't bother with those tbh. 1/2 an inch here at work with icy roads the last 10 miles to work #winter's here! Snow, green grass, green leafs = gotta love it 

Thanks....it felt good to see the white stuff again. Its been awhile.

[Niko]

Paging Major Tom!!  #raging #storm...GFS says cancel Turkey Day plans out west STAT! 

 

20171110 12z 264hr GFS mb & precip for Nov21.jpg

20171110 12z 276hr GFS mb & precip for Nov22.jpg

A lot of wind also...possibly going from rain to snow & wind.

[Niko]

NAM is smoking some of that funny stuff..

I see a 2-3inch mark right IMBY.