November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently, 23F and partly cloudy skies. WCF in the low teens. Bottoming out tanite in the teens once again.

[NEJeremy]

The computer models are full of errors. Gary is always strong on saying after 5 days the models are useless. Throw in the fact that the AO/NAO ar absolutely tanking; I'm gonna have to say that the models are clueless right now. With that being said, things look to get really interesting in and around thanksgiving. 

Things of course can change especially the further we get out in model range, but even the Euro control and ensemble weeklies are showing the southwest ridge just like the GFS. Tom alluded to this at how it looks much better north and east of Nebraska.

[NEJeremy]

Local met here in Omaha: Colder than normal(-2 degrees) and slightly below normal snowfall(22-26").

http://www.ketv.com/article/bill-s-winter-forecast-1510288168/13513892

[gimmesnow]

I'm going snowboarding tomorrow. This time last year I was still jet skiing on the lake. In fact the last day out for me was the 18th last year and I was still jumping in and enjoying myself in the water (with a wetsuit obviously). I had to pack it in early this year, end of October and only in the 50s.

 

I'm with you but......we are a LONG WAYS out. Patience, I think we are gonna do just fine this year. Speaking on average, there is no way in god's green Earth we will have a snow season like last years. It doesn't get any worse than that. Plus, by my tracking from this past October, we are due in for a Colorado low right around thanksgiving time. Hopefully we can get a west/east storm system tracking through the upper mid west. 

 

Please no we're off to such a good start, don't jinx us!

[GDR]

The 46 day mean looks crazy for lake effect snow,everyone else not so much.

[Niko]

Its very cold currently w temp @ 20F. I have a strong feeling that temps will fall a lot lower than what is already forecasted. I am leaning towards the lower teens.  Lows are for temps to fall in the mid teens.

[Niko]

The 46 day mean looks crazy for lake effect snow,everyone else not so much.

Yup..its going to get wild.

[jaster220]

The 46 day mean looks crazy for lake effect snow,everyone else not so much.

You rang?? :-)

[jaster220]

Looks like records were set here in Calhoun Cnty! The low Max goes way back!

 

"So we tied our record low of 17 this morning! The high of 28 is a new record low max! the old was 29 set in 1913 and 1933"

[jaster220]

Already hit the teens at 8 pm! Straight to winter we went lol

[Niko]

@ 18F now! BRRRRR

[jaster220]

November 10th, for many in the GL's a date that will live in infamy!

 

http://www.weather.gov/apx/Gales_Of_November

[St Paul Storm]

Light snow falling. Will maybe get up to 0.5” but not the 1-3” some hi res models were showing. I’ll take more mood flakes though. No complaints.

[Niko]

Cant believe how fast my temps are dropping. Currently @ 17F. I can easily see this dropping to near 10 by morning.

[Money]

Seems like gfs is trending farther south with the system next week

[Minny_Weather]

Seems like gfs is trending farther south with the system next week

And West. That's favorable for us. It would fall as rain but it's November anyway.

[Tom]

Overnight 00z Euro is trending towards the idea yesterday that the main jet energy tracks through the central Plains/Midwest and then buckles/deepens as it heads towards the GL's.  On this run, the Euro sends 1 piece into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the second/stronger piece takes a similar track from CO Low's all season long out of SE CO/S KS/MO/IL/S MI.  That northern piece really screws things up for this to become a wound up storm earlier on.  Let's see how it evolves.

[Tom]

Took a peak at the 00z Euro control and it has a much stronger southern piece and takes nearly the same exact track as the southern piece in my above post.  It's just a tad warm this run and produces mostly rain but interesting to see that the main energy on this run comes out of CO.  Nearly perfect "share the wealth" track across our subforum and a nice defo band.  Hope to see future runs move towards this idea as one would imagine the system develops where the main jet energy tracks.

[bud2380]

Incredible weather 100 years ago today.

 

[jaster220]

Incredible weather 100 years ago today.

 

Talk about summer to winter in 1 day! Yeesh! That's crazy stuff. One of the deadly twisters was in SEMI not far from my home town and it's known as the 11's Twister because it struck on 11-11-11 @ 11:11 pm! That's no joke. Truth is stranger than fiction as they say..

 

http://weather-coffee-shoppe.com/the-great-blue-norther

[jaster220]

Took a peak at the 00z Euro control and it has a much stronger southern piece and takes nearly the same exact track as the southern piece in my above post. It's just a tad warm this run and produces mostly rain but interesting to see that the main energy on this run comes out of CO. Nearly perfect "share the wealth" track across our subforum and a nice defo band. Hope to see future runs move towards this idea as one would imagine the system develops where the main jet energy tracks.

That'd be great Tom if it could focus more on that CO Low. Need to get our Neb peeps some Precip to lift their spirits out of the tank!

[ToastedRavs]

I remember this day very well.  What a wild day it was in and around Des Moines.  Several tornadoes in the afternoon and snow at night.  Loved every aspect of it!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/des-moines-airport-records-a-tornado-and-snow-six-hours-apart-on-wednesday/?utm_term=.63ae464d4097

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and cold ...temps rebounding slowly at 28F.

[Niko]

Two of chances of rain next week, w temps in the 40s. The following week (Turkey Week) stands a chance for some snow or mix. Have to wait and see on that.

[St Paul Storm]

Already up to 32F here with clouds and quite a bit of wind. Picked up about 0.25” of snow last night. So much for mulching leaves today. Has anyone ever fired up the lawn mower with snow on the ground? Haha

[jaster220]

That'd be great Tom if it could focus more on that CO Low. Need to get our Neb peeps some Precip to lift their spirits out of the tank!

..and latest GFS has WHAT ova "The OMA Dome"???

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Things are trending well for us to get rain next weekend. We need it. We need moisture too. If that moisture comes in the form of rain, so be it. It's November.

[Money]

Things are trending well for us to get rain next weekend. We need it. We need moisture too. If that moisture comes in the form of rain, so be it. It's November.

12z gfs says no rain for you

 

Perfect track for a snowstorm for IA/MN but the northern stream kind of takes over as the main show and about 3-4 degrees too warm

[Tom]

Interesting to note, the last 6 GEFS runs showing the blocking in SE Canada and the shifts each run farther south...

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Sure looks like a storms a brewing!

 

East Asia looks to have some strong troughing, what dates would this translate into for us?

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Sure looks like a storms a brewing!

 

East Asia looks to have some strong troughing, what dates would this translate into for us?

Typically its a 6-10 day lag period, more or less centered around Day 7....it's too bad the Euro ticked up on the northern stream energy but still swings a strong southerly wave through the Midwest/Lower Lakes where eventually both phase a little late for us to get anything interesting.  I do think there will be a severe wx outbreak around are region or maybe points south where the last one ended up across IN/OH/S IL.

[jaster220]

Interesting tidbit per Michael Clark on this current cold wave:

 

"This coming cold period was very poorly modeled by the EPS data. Infact it was blind to it. Puts things into perspective when everyone is currently expecting the cold in the LR to not materialize also. "

[jaster220]

Typically its a 6-10 day lag period, more or less centered around Day 7....it's too bad the Euro ticked up on the northern stream energy but still swings a strong southerly wave through the Midwest/Lower Lakes where eventually both phase a little late for us to get anything interesting.  I do think there will be a severe wx outbreak around are region or maybe points south where the last one ended up across IN/OH/S IL.

Euro sure flashed an impressive system tho for about a day. Progress I suppose. One of these days we'll have enough cold in place..

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Up to 43 and nearly full sun. Turned out to be a great day.

[Snowlover76]

Gosh between the huskers and weather it's sure been a long fall.

[GDR]

Man your not kidding the pink shirt defense gave up 54 points to Minnesota!

[Niko]

Some mix precip heading my way. Temps are @ 33F.

[Niko]

Have to watch Thanksgiving Eve for possible storm.

[Niko]

Up to 43 and nearly full sun. Turned out to be a great day.

Dang, that's sound like a heatwave...

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKED

 

Upper trough progged to dig through the central CONUS
will bring active weather back to the area Friday into Saturday.
Rain Friday could transition to a brief round of snow Saturday
morning as low pressure pushes a surge of cold air and gusty winds
through the region.