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November 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Andrew NE

Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:36 AM

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I think he's looking at the GFS, and if it's true he's not wrong. It's atrocious for us lol. It's pretty wild how much my optimism has changed, I just don't see us having a good year, this map its what I could see being accurate for a typical storm track this year.

Yes that is spot on what I was referring too.  I wasn't implying I was throwing in the towel, just stating what has been so consistent on the GFS.  We shall see what November brings!


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#52
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

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He meant the nebraska forcefield holds up

 

Well, per the current GFS map, one would think so, but check back with me say around the 8th

 

I think he's looking at the GFS, and if it's true he's not wrong. It's atrocious for us lol. It's pretty wild how much my optimism has changed, I just don't see us having a good year, this map its what I could see being accurate for a typical storm track this year.

 

:o  :wacko:  You ain't kiddin, boy is that sad or what? Whether it verifies remains to be seen ofc, but verbatim that has to bring some bad flash-backs to mind. And prior to the 2 surprise rainstorms on the 11th and 14th, I was feeling the exact same way, that our 2 month dry pattern would never end. I still feel strongly that you guys will make out great with CO Lows. Now, I suppose being the temperature bi-polar plains, it's not out of the question that your precip goes that way as well - all wet or all dry - nothing in the middle. 


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#53
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2017 - 10:00 AM

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First flakes near KC to open Nov?  The models have been having a devil of a time trying to figure out what to do with that energy in the SW.  Let's see if it can come out quicker and marry the precip with the cold.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

 

Amazingly wintery pattern, even if the ground's still too warm to hold what falls. 


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#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 October 2017 - 10:38 PM

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Well, per the current GFS map, one would think so, but check back with me say around the 8th


:o :wacko: You ain't kiddin, boy is that sad or what? Whether it verifies remains to be seen ofc, but verbatim that has to bring some bad flash-backs to mind. And prior to the 2 surprise rainstorms on the 11th and 14th, I was feeling the exact same way, that our 2 month dry pattern would never end. I still feel strongly that you guys will make out great with CO Lows. Now, I suppose being the temperature bi-polar plains, it's not out of the question that your precip goes that way as well - all wet or all dry - nothing in the middle.


I will agree. It's always one extreme or the other here. No such thing as "average" when you can have a day in November go 82 for a high and 12 for a low. Lol
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#55
Niko

Posted 28 October 2017 - 04:39 AM

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Amazingly wintery pattern, even if the ground's still too warm to hold what falls. 

Getting some flurry action now. :)


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#56
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 October 2017 - 05:25 AM

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Hmmmmm...

 

Attached File  GEFSCGP_prec_ptypens_096.png   105.98KB   8 downloads


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#57
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2017 - 05:57 AM

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@ GEFS maps

Many heavy hitters for SENE! "..Luke, it's time to believe that The Force will be with you this winter"
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#58
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 06:32 AM

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We just need patience this season with the model watching.  That big EC storm hasn't developed yet and will absolutely effect the pattern upstream.  That energy coming out of the SW around Halloween will come out, but to what extent is the question at this time.


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#59
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 07:14 AM

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CPC's thinking for Week's 3 & 4...I would agree to some degree...

 

WK34temp.gif

 

 

 

WK34prcp.gif
 



#60
Thunder98

Posted 28 October 2017 - 07:41 AM

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The weather forecast looks cloudy. Temperatures appear to relatively stable in the long term in the Midwest.

 

qfjoQLR.png

 

MBsAM0s.png

 

jslwsun.png



#61
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 07:57 AM

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Hmmmmm...

GEFSCGP_prec_ptypens_096.png


12z GFS creeping that way now...trends are your friend...
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#62
Thunder98

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:01 AM

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12z GFS creeping that way now...trends are your friend...

Could Central and Eastern Nebraska see there 1st snow of season around Nov 1st?


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#63
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:04 AM

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Could Central and Eastern Nebraska see there 1st snow of season around Nov 1st?


KC region as well...N MO, several places that haven’t already in the Plains/Midwest.
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#64
Thunder98

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:12 AM

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KC region as well...N MO, several places that haven’t already in the Plains/Midwest.

Winter is off to a fast start this year for the Central US.



#65
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:39 AM

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[quote name="Tom" post="265680" timestamp="1509203640"]CPC's thinking for Week's 3 & 4...I would agree to some degree...
 
WK34temp.gif
 
This would be after the Wk-2 torch due to that strong plains cutter, correct?

#66
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:43 AM

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[quote name="Tom" post="265680" timestamp="1509203640"]CPC's thinking for Week's 3 & 4...I would agree to some degree...
 
WK34temp.gif
 
This would be after the Wk-2 torch due to that strong plains cutter, correct?

Notice dates above....11/11-11/24....and yes, if that storms cuts, us folks to the east will spike temps AN....however, for how long is the next question....



#67
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2017 - 08:57 AM

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Notice dates above....11/11-11/24....and yes, if that storms cuts, us folks to the east will spike temps AN....however, for how long is the next question....


Euro says many days, GFS is more progressive and has about a 3d period

#68
gimmesnow

Posted 29 October 2017 - 09:08 AM

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So, how's it looking for a few good days of lows under 28 and highs in the 30s for SE Wisconsin? Any guesses? That's when they can blow snow and I can go snowboarding. They usually open Alpine Valley around the middle of November if things are in our favor.



#69
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 October 2017 - 11:37 AM

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AGH. Snow chances for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning gone. Dry air can go die in a hole.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#70
GDR

Posted 29 October 2017 - 12:03 PM

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Not a good sign for the Nebraska dome! Wash rinse repeat

#71
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2017 - 06:17 PM

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Not a good sign for the Nebraska dome! Wash rinse repeat


What's your avg precip for Oct and where do you stand so far?

#72
Niko

Posted 30 October 2017 - 04:17 AM

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November right now looks like it will be running below normal tempwise. Snow chances are definitely increasing. Also, my average H/L are 53/37.


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#73
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 04:20 AM

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As a new month begins, models are picking up on WAA snows in MN/WI/U.P. this Wednesday....

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_14.png



#74
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 05:47 AM

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The anticipated "hard cutter" around the 5th/6th is now looking likely later this weekend into early next week.  The clues to this storm track could have been used from the storm that is impacting East Asia right now.  Check out how Tropical Storm Saola skirted the east side of Japan and then veered N/NW into the Sea of Okhotsk.  This track suggested a hard cutter across the central CONUS.  

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_31.png

 

 

Attached Files


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#75
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 06:03 AM

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Moving along, the next system that we should look out for is around the 11th time frame which not only correlates with the storm that will be effecting East Asia on the 4th/5th, but also the BSR rule from the storm that hit the Aleutian Islands last week!  Isn't it just fascinating how you can use different long range forecasting tools and they both can mimic a similar outcome?  I find it very intriguing that you can spot a pattern 1000's of miles away and recognize it's "fitting" pattern downstream days/weeks away.

 

For days, the GEFS were suggesting a much stronger ridge across the East post 10th/11th but has since backed off of it over the last couple days.  The reason for this, will be the storm the will be somewhat relaxing the Bearing Sea ridge during this aforementioned period above.

 

 

Here is the predicted pattern Day 8....compare it to what the model was showing 3 days earlier....

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_33.png

 

 

3 Days earlier...much bigger Bearing Sea ridge...let's see if this holds so that we see a storm track more favorable for our sub forum.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_41.png

 

 

Attached Files



#76
westMJim

Posted 30 October 2017 - 07:03 AM

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 In looking ahead into November here is a kind of fun fact. In each of the last 10 Novembers Grand Rapids has had days that have gotten into the 60’s or 70’s Here is a list of the year and the highest temperature for that November. 2016 73°, 2015 76° (that November had 4 days in a row in the 70’s with highs of 73°, 76°, 75° and 72°) 2014 60° (that November Grand Rapids had 31.0” of snow) 2013 64° 2012 71° 2011 °65° 2010 69° 2009 72° 2008 73° and  2007 62° So based on this I feel that there is a very good chance of seeing temperatures reaching the 60’s and or yet another 70° day.


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#77
jaster220

Posted 30 October 2017 - 07:21 AM

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@ Tom

 

Watching this, couldn't help but see that both bombs look like synchronized swimmers in the (jet) stream. Off EC of Asia, and E Canada. Pretty wild..

 

Attached File  20171030 Toms GEFS animated.gif   1.72MB   2 downloads



#78
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 07:47 AM

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@ Tom

Watching this, couldn't help but see that both bombs look like synchronized swimmers in the (jet) stream. Off EC of Asia, and E Canada. Pretty wild..

20171030 Toms GEFS animated.gif


I agree...saw that as well this morning and may be an indicator of some big storms this season. The jet is intensifying and these systems are prob a likely response to the seasonal transition.
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#79
WBadgersW

Posted 30 October 2017 - 12:35 PM

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Winter is here. Getting some snow showers with gusty winds.
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#80
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 12:54 PM

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One thing is for certain, there is a world of cold air that will be building just across the border.  Today's 12z GEFS/EPS, have, for the first time, come to some agreement that Week 2 is trending colder.  The 12z Euro op run ended up showing a volatile temp pattern towards the end of the week into the weekend.  Next week has the potential to be really cold if the pattern does in fact trend colder.  The control run brought a stripe of snow across NE/IA/MO/IL/IN/OH around the 12th/13th which is the period I'm looking out for a potential large storm.


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#81
Tom

Posted 30 October 2017 - 12:59 PM

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Winter is here. Getting some snow showers with gusty winds.

Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?



#82
VMB443

Posted 30 October 2017 - 01:06 PM

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Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?


Not at the airport to my knowledge - we just had a burst of snow grains for about two minutes - looked like snow from the window but then I stepped outside and it was just grains.
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#83
WBadgersW

Posted 30 October 2017 - 01:26 PM

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Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?


Officially, I don't think so.
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#84
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 October 2017 - 05:15 PM

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Seeing a rising AO and NAO in the extended models right now. Kinda disappointing. Hope they both drop after mid-month.

#85
jaster220

Posted 30 October 2017 - 06:23 PM

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Seeing a rising AO and NAO in the extended models right now. Kinda disappointing. Hope they both drop after mid-month.


Bound to relax at some point post recurve storm.

#86
Niko

Posted 30 October 2017 - 07:47 PM

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I think November has eyes on parts of the lower 48 with some real cold temperatures to settle in.



#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 October 2017 - 08:15 PM

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I think November has eyes on parts of the lower 48 with some real cold temperatures to settle in.

I'm liking what I've been seeing for the past week and what I'm seeing in the future from models. Fluctuating temperatures with cold being dominant, while still having a thaw day or two in the 60s for a little break. I prefer cold nonstop, but that is a pattern I can deal with and is way better than the "record warmth with occasional dips all the way to average" bs we dealt with last season.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#88
Tom

Posted 31 October 2017 - 03:22 AM

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I'm liking what I've been seeing for the past week and what I'm seeing in the future from models. Fluctuating temperatures with cold being dominant, while still having a thaw day or two in the 60s for a little break. I prefer cold nonstop, but that is a pattern I can deal with and is way better than the "record warmth with occasional dips all the way to average" bs we dealt with last season.

I agree.  The opening 2 weeks of this month's pattern couldn't be more different than last year.  Last year, we opened the month with a high of 75F and basically stayed in the mid/upper 60's through the 10th.  Not only that, it was a boring wx pattern.  

 

Happy Halloween!  It's going to be the coldest Halloween here in 21 years.  The wind was blowing all night.  I can't remember an Autumn that has produced so many colder/windy days around here that last for days.  It feels like forever.



#89
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2017 - 03:42 AM

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Happy Halloween!  It's going to be the coldest Halloween here in 21 years.  The wind was blowing all night.  I can't remember an Autumn that has produced so many colder/windy days around here that last for days.  It feels like forever.

 

No kidding and the winds were still strong this morning with gusts strong enough to push my car occasionally, it would've been seriously tundra-like during any colder month than Oct. Happy Halloween back atcha and others too ofc, you got a Skilling graphic to back up your 21 yrs statement? And yes, the past year's worth of wx around here has been pretty dang dull as it gets. Looks like we'll be making up for some lost time going forward  :D



#90
Tom

Posted 31 October 2017 - 04:02 AM

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No kidding and the winds were still strong this morning with gusts strong enough to push my car occasionally, it would've been seriously tundra-like during any colder month than Oct. Happy Halloween back atcha and others too ofc, you got a Skilling graphic to back up your 21 yrs statement? And yes, the past year's worth of wx around here has been pretty dang dull as it gets. Looks like we'll be making up for some lost time going forward  :D

No graphics, it was mentioned on a local news channel:

 

http://abc7chicago.c...ecades/2585070/

 

 

Edit: WGN just posted one up

 

DNdtrWeW0AArJNA.jpg


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#91
Tom

Posted 31 October 2017 - 04:47 AM

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The last CFSv2 daily run in October is holding onto the idea that there will be a strong SE ridge next month.  Central CONUS battle zone will be draped across our sub forum.  Expect to see a high variability next month for a lot of us.  Folks up north in MN/WI region may stand a better chance with more persistent cold allowing for heightened chances for wintry precip.  Winter is here and looks locked for those up north.

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201711.gif



#92
Tom

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:23 AM

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As we open November, nature would like to lay down another "refresher" in the Northwoods...I think these folks will have a big winter....

 

nsm_depth_2017103105_Northern_Great_Lake

 

 

Tab2FileL.png


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#93
Tom

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:30 AM

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-EPO driving the colder trends Week 2 for the central CONUS???  Here are the 5-day mean in temp trends from last nights 00z run compared to what it was showing 3 days ago....

 

 

eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_288.png

 

eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360.png


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#94
westMJim

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:43 AM

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Not sure if I wanted to post this in October or November so I will post it in both.  For the last half hour or so I have been getting a heavy snow shower with very large flakes and it has came down hard enough for the snow to cover the ground and roofs and tops of cars.  So at least here at my house this will be the first measurable snow fall of the winter of 2017/8


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#95
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:40 AM

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-EPO driving the colder trends Week 2 for the central CONUS???  Here are the 5-day mean in temp trends from last nights 00z run compared to what it was showing 3 days ago....

 

Significant trend, could be a theme for the winter, eh? This is the last week for truly colorful trees (in the countryside at least). We'll still have all the super-hardy Oaks, Maples, Elms, Willows, etc that just turn various shades of brownish-yellow, some holding leafs all winter or at least til there's pond icings, lol



#96
westMJim

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:41 AM

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Here are some snow fall totals from some locations around Michigan for October 31, 1917

Date:Oct 31 13:30:00
Type:SNOW
City: SE Grand Rapids
Magnitude:M0.4 INCH
County:KENT
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH 930 AM. 0.1 OF AN INCH FELL PRIOR TO 5 AM. ANOTHER 0.3 OF AN INCH FELL BETWEEN 830-930 AM. SNOW ACCUMULATION

 

Date:Oct 31 12:00:00
Type:SNOW
City:1 WNW WATERS
Magnitude:M5.9 INCH
County:OTSEGO
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:4.4 INCHES LAST 4 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 6 INCHES. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS

Date:Oct 31 13:46:00
Type:HEAVY SNOW
City:HERMAN
Magnitude:M6.0 INCH
County:BARAGA
State:MI
Source:CO-OP OBSERVER
Details:9 INCH SNOW DEPTH



#97
westMJim

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:48 AM

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Significant trend, could be a theme for the winter, eh? This is the last week for truly colorful trees (in the countryside at least). We'll still have all the super-hardy Oaks, Maples, Elms, Willows, etc that just turn various shades of brownish-yellow, some holding leafs all winter or at least til there's pond icings, lol

Many of the trees still have leaves on them here in the Grand Rapids metro area, In fact much more than average for Halloween. Not sure if that means anything or not.



#98
Niko

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:54 AM

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Many of the trees still have leaves on them here in the Grand Rapids metro area, In fact much more than average for Halloween. Not sure if that means anything or not.

Here, 65% are bare. Going towards past peak.


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#99
westMJim

Posted 31 October 2017 - 07:09 AM

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This will be the snowiest October 31st in Grand Rapids since 1932 when .03" was reported. The most snow fall on the 31st is 1.5" and that was in 1917. Hum does that make this a hundred year event? BTY as for hints for snow on Halloween and the upcoming winter well that is a mixed bag. In 1917/18 Grand Rapids recorded 75.9" and in 1932/33 that winter GR only recorded 43.6" 



#100
james1976

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Wound up system around 12th-13th showing up on GFS for upper midwest. BSR in play?
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