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November 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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With all the moisture going around, I could see a 1-Dec-74 on 'roids happening. Or the Great Appalachain storm bumped half a state north. Nevva say nevva!

Exactly. ;)     Fun times ahead buddy! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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What's the free site for the euro maps

 

 

 

Hey guys, we're starting season 4 of the hit series "Will it ever snow in Topeka KS again?"

 

I have a question: is that site with the free euro maps legit? It looks like it to me but I'm surprised you can get some of that stuff for free like the snowfall and precip maps.  I assume you pay big bucks to provide that kind of data but wasn't sure if that is the case. I don't want to sound like a prude, but I'm real big on safeguarding intellectual property rights.

 

Appreciate your thoughts. I would like to pass that link around to a few folks.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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We will be tracking a large storm during the 11/4-11/7 period that is likely to take a track through the N Rockies into the N Plains.  Based on what I'm seeing in East Asia, this makes for a favorable hard cutter.

 

GEFS/EPS are picking up on this storm potential as well...build that snow pack up north first...

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

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The central plains look to stay quite dry for next couple weeks. Not liking the trends here.

 

:huh:  :huh: Huh? If what Tom's post says is anything close to correct, Idk how? A strong storm coming out of the 4-corners should be pulling moisture north from the Gulf right over you guys. And that'd be in about 8 days.. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh: :huh: Huh? If what Tom's post says is anything close to correct, Idk how? A strong storm coming out of the 4-corners should be pulling moisture north from the Gulf right over you guys. And that'd be in about 8 days..

He meant the nebraska forcefield holds up

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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:huh:  :huh: Huh? If what Tom's post says is anything close to correct, Idk how? A strong storm coming out of the 4-corners should be pulling moisture north from the Gulf right over you guys. And that'd be in about 8 days.. 

 

 

I think he's looking at the GFS, and if it's true he's not wrong. It's atrocious for us lol. It's pretty wild how much my optimism has changed, I just don't see us having a good year, this map its what I could see being accurate for a typical storm track this year.

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

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I have a question: is that site with the free euro maps legit? It looks like it to me but I'm surprised you can get some of that stuff for free like the snowfall and precip maps.  I assume you pay big bucks to provide that kind of data but wasn't sure if that is the case. I don't want to sound like a prude, but I'm real big on safeguarding intellectual property rights.

 

Appreciate your thoughts. I would like to pass that link around to a few folks.

 

Ryan Maue, the former WxBell guy who is building the new site, has the view that everyone should have free access to all the model maps.  He said the required fee has been paid.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ryan Maue, the former WxBell guy who is building the new site, has the view that everyone should have free access to all the model maps.  He said the required fee has been paid.

 

Thanks so much for the reply hawkeye. I thought Ryan's name sounded familiar but I didn't connect him with (formerly) WxBell.

 

I have both a musician and a writer in the family along with a good friend who has a RPG (role playing game) business who have all had interesting experiences with property rights issues so I guess it's on my radar a little more than most.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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I think he's looking at the GFS, and if it's true he's not wrong. It's atrocious for us lol. It's pretty wild how much my optimism has changed, I just don't see us having a good year, this map its what I could see being accurate for a typical storm track this year.

Yes that is spot on what I was referring too.  I wasn't implying I was throwing in the towel, just stating what has been so consistent on the GFS.  We shall see what November brings!

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He meant the nebraska forcefield holds up

 

Well, per the current GFS map, one would think so, but check back with me say around the 8th

 

I think he's looking at the GFS, and if it's true he's not wrong. It's atrocious for us lol. It's pretty wild how much my optimism has changed, I just don't see us having a good year, this map its what I could see being accurate for a typical storm track this year.

 

:o  :wacko:  You ain't kiddin, boy is that sad or what? Whether it verifies remains to be seen ofc, but verbatim that has to bring some bad flash-backs to mind. And prior to the 2 surprise rainstorms on the 11th and 14th, I was feeling the exact same way, that our 2 month dry pattern would never end. I still feel strongly that you guys will make out great with CO Lows. Now, I suppose being the temperature bi-polar plains, it's not out of the question that your precip goes that way as well - all wet or all dry - nothing in the middle. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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First flakes near KC to open Nov?  The models have been having a devil of a time trying to figure out what to do with that energy in the SW.  Let's see if it can come out quicker and marry the precip with the cold.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png

 

Amazingly wintery pattern, even if the ground's still too warm to hold what falls. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, per the current GFS map, one would think so, but check back with me say around the 8th

 

 

:o :wacko: You ain't kiddin, boy is that sad or what? Whether it verifies remains to be seen ofc, but verbatim that has to bring some bad flash-backs to mind. And prior to the 2 surprise rainstorms on the 11th and 14th, I was feeling the exact same way, that our 2 month dry pattern would never end. I still feel strongly that you guys will make out great with CO Lows. Now, I suppose being the temperature bi-polar plains, it's not out of the question that your precip goes that way as well - all wet or all dry - nothing in the middle.

I will agree. It's always one extreme or the other here. No such thing as "average" when you can have a day in November go 82 for a high and 12 for a low. Lol

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Amazingly wintery pattern, even if the ground's still too warm to hold what falls. 

Getting some flurry action now. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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@ GEFS maps

 

Many heavy hitters for SENE! "..Luke, it's time to believe that The Force will be with you this winter"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We just need patience this season with the model watching.  That big EC storm hasn't developed yet and will absolutely effect the pattern upstream.  That energy coming out of the SW around Halloween will come out, but to what extent is the question at this time.

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CPC's thinking for Week's 3 & 4...I would agree to some degree...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

This would be after the Wk-2 torch due to that strong plains cutter, correct?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC's thinking for Week's 3 & 4...I would agree to some degree...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

This would be after the Wk-2 torch due to that strong plains cutter, correct?

Notice dates above....11/11-11/24....and yes, if that storms cuts, us folks to the east will spike temps AN....however, for how long is the next question....

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Notice dates above....11/11-11/24....and yes, if that storms cuts, us folks to the east will spike temps AN....however, for how long is the next question....

Euro says many days, GFS is more progressive and has about a 3d period

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not a good sign for the Nebraska dome! Wash rinse repeat

What's your avg precip for Oct and where do you stand so far?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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November right now looks like it will be running below normal tempwise. Snow chances are definitely increasing. Also, my average H/L are 53/37.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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The anticipated "hard cutter" around the 5th/6th is now looking likely later this weekend into early next week.  The clues to this storm track could have been used from the storm that is impacting East Asia right now.  Check out how Tropical Storm Saola skirted the east side of Japan and then veered N/NW into the Sea of Okhotsk.  This track suggested a hard cutter across the central CONUS.  

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_31.png

 

 

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Moving along, the next system that we should look out for is around the 11th time frame which not only correlates with the storm that will be effecting East Asia on the 4th/5th, but also the BSR rule from the storm that hit the Aleutian Islands last week!  Isn't it just fascinating how you can use different long range forecasting tools and they both can mimic a similar outcome?  I find it very intriguing that you can spot a pattern 1000's of miles away and recognize it's "fitting" pattern downstream days/weeks away.

 

For days, the GEFS were suggesting a much stronger ridge across the East post 10th/11th but has since backed off of it over the last couple days.  The reason for this, will be the storm the will be somewhat relaxing the Bearing Sea ridge during this aforementioned period above.

 

 

Here is the predicted pattern Day 8....compare it to what the model was showing 3 days earlier....

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_33.png

 

 

3 Days earlier...much bigger Bearing Sea ridge...let's see if this holds so that we see a storm track more favorable for our sub forum.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_41.png

 

 

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 In looking ahead into November here is a kind of fun fact. In each of the last 10 Novembers Grand Rapids has had days that have gotten into the 60’s or 70’s Here is a list of the year and the highest temperature for that November. 2016 73°, 2015 76° (that November had 4 days in a row in the 70’s with highs of 73°, 76°, 75° and 72°) 2014 60° (that November Grand Rapids had 31.0” of snow) 2013 64° 2012 71° 2011 °65° 2010 69° 2009 72° 2008 73° and  2007 62° So based on this I feel that there is a very good chance of seeing temperatures reaching the 60’s and or yet another 70° day.

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@ Tom

 

Watching this, couldn't help but see that both bombs look like synchronized swimmers in the (jet) stream. Off EC of Asia, and E Canada. Pretty wild..

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

Watching this, couldn't help but see that both bombs look like synchronized swimmers in the (jet) stream. Off EC of Asia, and E Canada. Pretty wild..

 

20171030 Toms GEFS animated.gif

I agree...saw that as well this morning and may be an indicator of some big storms this season. The jet is intensifying and these systems are prob a likely response to the seasonal transition.

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One thing is for certain, there is a world of cold air that will be building just across the border.  Today's 12z GEFS/EPS, have, for the first time, come to some agreement that Week 2 is trending colder.  The 12z Euro op run ended up showing a volatile temp pattern towards the end of the week into the weekend.  Next week has the potential to be really cold if the pattern does in fact trend colder.  The control run brought a stripe of snow across NE/IA/MO/IL/IN/OH around the 12th/13th which is the period I'm looking out for a potential large storm.

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