November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

The sunshine returns tomorrow along w a brief warm-up. Temps into the 40s. Maybe cracking 50 on Tues. Average H/L this time of the year IMBY is 48/35F.

[Niko]

Had brief ice mixed with rain about 2:30, raw raw day, classic late autumn early winter wx!

Indeed, raw, dreary, wet, dismal and cold day.

[OKwx2k4]

Speaking of dreary, so far this has really been a classic dreary cloudy misty November so far in my neck of the woods. Reminds me some of the late autumns from when I was a kid.

[Niko]

Snow/rain mix currently, but nothing sticking. Temp @ 35F.

[jaster220]

I heard that Mount Holly, a ski area in SEMI that I used to ski at when I was in HS, opened 2 weeks before Thanksgiving - earliest ever for them.

[Minny_Weather]

So I was just waiting for the new Euro Weeklies to come out, and I just kept waiting,

 

and waiting,

 

and waiting,

 

Oh wait, it's Sunday. 

 

Anyway, both Euro and GFS are wanting to back off on much cold air Thanksgiving week. I'll believe it when I see more runs as AO/NAO are still forecasted to tank.

[Niko]

Currently light snow in my area. Looks really nice outside. Nothing stick yet. Temp @ 35F.

[Niko]

Just took a sneak peek at my forecast for next week and it gets real stormy here IMBY. I am sure lots of peeps on here as well will have wintery weather. Cold temps will be in place. Possible couple inches of snow in SEMI. Still time to monitor this system, but, it sure does look very interesting come Thanksgiving week in a lot of places, that is if you want snow and cold temps.

[jaster220]

So I was just waiting for the new Euro Weeklies to come out, and I just kept waiting,

 

and waiting,

 

and waiting,

 

Oh wait, it's Sunday. 

 

Anyway, both Euro and GFS are wanting to back off on much cold air Thanksgiving week. I'll believe it when I see more runs as AO/NAO are still forecasted to tank.

AO is going in the Cellar. If my money was on below avg, I'd let it ride.

[Niko]

I heard that Mount Holly, a ski area in SEMI that I used to ski at when I was in HS, opened 2 weeks before Thanksgiving - earliest ever for them.

Now, that's a good sign right there.

[St Paul Storm]

I find freezing fog to be fascinating.

It’s fascinating, beautiful and extremely dangerous all at the same time. I nearly wiped out on my driveway this morning as I was walking to get the paper. And because of that I forgot to snap a few pics. Ha!

[Niko]

It’s fascinating, beautiful and extremely dangerous all at the same time. I nearly wiped out on my driveway this morning as I was walking to get the paper. And because of that I forgot to snap a few pics. Ha!

 

BTW: Next week looks wintry for a lot of us. Cold air will be getting locked in and will give opportunity for snows.

[Minny_Weather]

BTW: Next week looks wintry for a lot of us. Cold air will be getting locked in and will give opportunity for snows.

Stop discriminating against Nebraskans. Where's my safe space?

[Niko]

Stop discriminating against Nebraskans. Where's my safe space?

Further east!

[Minny_Weather]

Further east!

Oh you son of a...

[NEJeremy]

I’ve been on this forum for probably 5 winters and each fall has begun the same I’d say. It seems like every year the initial long term models or forecasts by other members here have either looked good for Nebraska or at least not horrible. Everyone gets excited with optimism. Then the models/forecasts realize where we’re talking about and ultimately another winter ends up being a big crap fest. Obviously when you only have 7” of snow in a winter, that sucks no matter how you look at it, but what I think makes it seem that much worse around here is we’re also having to “compete” with other members on this forum that are from a part of the country that should always get way more snow than us climatologically anyway. Omaha’s average is basically 2’ total each year.

[Minny_Weather]

I’ve been on this forum for probably 5 winters and each fall has begun the same I’d say. It seems like every year the initial long term models or forecasts by other members here have either looked good for Nebraska or at least not horrible. Everyone gets excited with optimism. Then the models/forecasts realize where we’re talking about and ultimately another winter ends up being a big crap fest. Obviously when you only have 7” of snow in a winter, that sucks no matter how you look at it, but what I think makes it seem that much worse around here is we’re also having to “compete” with other members on this forum that are from a part of the country that should always get way more snow than us climatologically anyway. Omaha’s average is basically 2’ total each year.

*GLs posters posting from their igloos surrounded by 20" of snow while Omaha and Lincoln are fixing to have their first snowless winter on record* Your storm is coming Nebraska! It's February. Still a ton of Winter left!

[james1976]

LNK_Weather should be a stand up comedian. Seriously love your posts!!!
​It does suck for Nebraska winter enthusiasts though. It's hard for your region to get a clipper or a cutter. Heck, even in Iowa we have to get pretty lucky to cash in on a lot of those.
That being said......it's only mid-November and most of the action has been up north so far. As winter settles in everything should come south with future cycles. So lets be patient. I know it's hard to do!

[Minny_Weather]

Nebraska people. Stay away from the models this morning. Just do it if you want to maintain your sanity.

 

They show the cold air at Thanksgiving again though.

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS are starting to show more wintry ensemble members for the Upper MW/GL's/Midwest region right around Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  Keeping an eye on an interesting clipper-type system rounding the base of the developing eastern CONUS trough next Wed/Thu period.  These are always interesting systems as they can be slow movers and buckle into a larger potential storm instead of zipping on by.

[Tom]

The freezing fog this morning is a cool sight to see.  Looks like the main focus of the fog across our subforum is along I-80...how does that folklore go again???  6 weeks later we can expect a I-80 special??

[Niko]

Currently 37F and cloudy w a few flurries flying around. WCF in the upper 20s.

[Niko]

Both GEFS/EPS are starting to show more wintry ensemble members for the Upper MW/GL's/Midwest region right around Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  Keeping an eye on an interesting clipper-type system rounding the base of the developing eastern CONUS trough next Wed/Thu period.  These are always interesting systems as they can be slow movers and buckle into a larger potential storm instead of zipping on by.

My forecast at that timeframe looks wintry.

[GDR]

Interesting clipper around Thanksgiving to say the least. Worth watching closely!

[Niko]

Oh you son of a...

[bud2380]

Just waiting for something...anything to show up in the long term on the models.    

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png

[Thunder98]

*GLs posters posting from their igloos surrounded by 20" of snow while Omaha and Lincoln are fixing to have their first snowless winter on record* Your storm is coming Nebraska! It's February. Still a ton of Winter left!

 

Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

 

[jaster220]

LNK_Weather should be a stand up comedian. Seriously love your posts!!!

​It does suck for Nebraska winter enthusiasts though. It's hard for your region to get a clipper or a cutter. Heck, even in Iowa we have to get pretty lucky to cash in on a lot of those.

That being said......it's only mid-November and most of the action has been up north so far. As winter settles in everything should come south with future cycles. So lets be patient. I know it's hard to do!

 

To the underlined - totally agree with that! He brings the best wx comedy of any poster I've seen anywhere. Hilarious stuff!

 

To the bolded. Great reminder words. It's not like us SMI peeps have 2 foot OTG or something? I'm still looking for my 1st legit flakes after all. Then there's the whole climo deal where my avg is double SENE just on moisture patterns alone. There's a reason forest is the natural foliage here, and grasslands out there. Forest needs a certain amt of moisture, or it just can't thrive. As for frustrating seasons, we get 'em too. They're the ones when the pattern has every SLP get really amped right off the Rockies, then die as soon as it crosses the Mississippi river. Those are painful seasons. You see this awesome bliz raging out in the Plains, and it's heading right in your direction and all looks perfect..then it just turns into a weak turd, a dusting by the time it gets here, and you're like "omg, what did I just witness here"??  

[Tom]

The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

[NEJeremy]

Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

 

Yeah SF is basically 160 miles north of Omaha, so pretty big difference for sure. Last year, when we had our 11", I believe there was a town called Little Sioux, IA which is about 40 miles north of here that had between 35-40" of snow, so 3x the amount of snow in only 40 miles difference. Even my parents in Yankton, SD had almost 50" last year and they're about 100 miles north of here.

[Minny_Weather]

Omaha saw 24.7" of snow in the 2015-2016 season while Sioux Falls received 68.5" of snow in the 2015-2016 season. That is a massive difference!

 

 

Wow, I didn't know Omaha got screwed over more than Lincoln, besides last winter. At least in 2014-15 we had 10" OTG at one point in February here.

[Niko]

The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

Man, look at that dome of frigid air just waiting to pour down on us.

[Thunder98]

The stratospheric Polar Vortex is rapidly intensifying  of late and is forecast to position itself in a fashion to funnel the coldest air into N.A. over the next 2 weeks.  See below the strengthening...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif4

 

 

 

By Day 5, the cross polar flow being depicted per the map below show the vectors aiming into N.A....

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f120.gif

 

 

This looks to continue into Day 10 and likely beyond this time frame...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb mean temps continue to indicate the Siberian Express will begin to take shape later this month as we get closer to met Winter.

The Beast is about to be awaken.

[NEJeremy]

Wow, I didn't know Omaha got screwed over more than Lincoln, besides last winter. At least in 2014-15 we had 10" OTG at one point in February here.

It's funny, I knew of course it's been bad for the last several years, but I had already forgotten just how bad the numbers from 2013-2015 were. Dear God, those are horrible!

[Niko]

Few flurries still flying around, but about to end. Temps max should reach low to mid 40s later on. Still BA. My normal H/L for this time of the year is at 48/35.

[Jaycee]

It's funny, I knew of course it's been bad for the last several years, but I had already forgotten just how bad the numbers from 2013-2015 were. Dear God, those are horrible!

 

Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much

[Tom]

I'm liking the looks of the pattern heading towards Blackout Wednesday (typically known as one of the annual biggest club nights of the year).  That clipper is looking more intriguing for those Midwesterners and Lower Lakes posters.

 

[Niko]

I'm liking the looks of the pattern heading towards Blackout Wednesday (typically known as one of the annual biggest club nights of the year).  That clipper is looking more intriguing for those Midwesterners and Lower Lakes posters.

 

Indeed, my forecast next week looks snowy. This clipper type system has potential for some disruption.

[Minny_Weather]

Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much

STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

[Jaycee]

STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

 

Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"

 

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif