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November 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#1201
Andrew NE

Posted Today, 07:20 AM

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It's hard to say right now, but I'm leaning towards a 48-51 day cycle.  I need to see how the pattern evolves right around the 24th/25th and see if it resembles the Oct 6th/7th pattern.

 

Fair enough, thanks.  This LRC stuff takes a lot of patience. haha. It is so nice once the first cycle is set going forward as you know!


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#1202
Tom

Posted Today, 07:24 AM

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Fair enough, thanks.  This LRC stuff takes a lot of patience. haha. It is so nice once the first cycle is set going forward as you know!

Indeed, but that early December storm really looks very similar to the Oct 9th-11th set up.  FWIW, 00z EPS has some nice wintry hits for the Plains.  You guys are probably sick of hearing it, but we just need patience in this pattern.  I know its been boring out that way but this year's pattern is much much different and holds some very encouraging signs to have CO Low's this season and we are on the verge of seeing that before the end of the month.  I mean, you guys just experienced one yesterday!



#1203
NEJeremy

Posted Today, 07:28 AM

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GFS was closer last night with the thermal profiles as it got nowhere near the 32 degrees the NAM was showing. Just had rain here. Haven’t checked my rain gauge yet for total. A cooler windy day today with normal highs and then the next week looks above normal for the most part and dry again. Wonder how much further things will keep getting pushed back before the amazing switch happens that the models keep showing always in week 2 or 3? Short, active 45 day cycle? Pffft, looks to be closer to 60 at this point!

#1204
Andrew NE

Posted Today, 07:30 AM

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Indeed, but that early December storm really looks very similar to the Oct 9th-11th set up.  FWIW, 00z EPS has some nice wintry hits for the Plains.  You guys are probably sick of hearing it, but we just need patience in this pattern.  I know its been boring out that way but this year's pattern is much much different and holds some very encouraging signs to have CO Low's this season and we are on the verge of seeing that before the end of the month.  I mean, you guys just experienced one yesterday!

Yea I have been seeing signs of it, honestly what I have mapped out so far of the LRC we have a chance at 5-6 shots of events per cycle, now obviously they wont all be monsters, but with a potential shorter cycle length they could be more frequent.  


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#1205
Tom

Posted Today, 07:36 AM

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Yea I have been seeing signs of it, honestly what I have mapped out so far of the LRC we have a chance at 5-6 shots of events per cycle, now obviously they wont all be monsters, but with a potential shorter cycle length they could be more frequent.  

Yup, and the blocking is suggested to be bountiful this season which all the more argues for phased storms as they eject out of the Rockies.  It's been a fun pattern out here all Autumn long and we have been lucky with numerous storms.  Could this be the "share the wealth" year???  Hope so!



#1206
St Paul Storm

Posted Today, 08:48 AM

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Nice day here. Decided to fire up the lawn mover one last time to mulch leaves. Sunny and low 30s today.

#1207
Tom

Posted Today, 08:53 AM

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Nice day here. Decided to fire up the lawn mover one last time to mulch leaves. Sunny and low 30s today.


It’s about as opposite as it can get over here today. Nastiest day of the Autumn I’d say. I’m thinking of doing the same on Sunday. Sunny skies and highs in the mid 30’s. Leaf pick up is on Mon so it makes sense.
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#1208
Hawkeye

Posted Today, 09:01 AM

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I'll be mowing for the last time either Monday or Friday.  Monday should be in the low to mid 50s, while last night's euro has us reaching 63 on Friday.  I think 53 has been our high this month.

 

The oak trees around here still don't want to drop their leaves.  I think I'd typically be done filling all the bags I need by now, but this year I haven't even started, yet.  At least it appears I won't have to worry about any snow events ruining my leaf collection/plant-covering through the rest of the month.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1209
Tom

Posted Today, 09:28 AM

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12z GEFS trending towards a big storm potential to close out the month..."Here...Cutter, Cutter, Cutter"

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_43.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_50.png



#1210
LNK_Weather

Posted Today, 10:45 AM

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There's one tree just outside my window which is refusing to drop its leaves. They're an ugly orange-brown, as they have been for a month, but it's just being stubborn. Maybe the wind today will help it out a bit. 

 

47.7* on my balcony and windy right now.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#1211
Money

Posted Today, 10:58 AM

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Nice cutter developing on the 12z euro at the end of the run

#1212
St Paul Storm

Posted Today, 11:05 AM

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12z GEFS trending towards a big storm potential to close out the month..."Here...Cutter, Cutter, Cutter"
 
gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_43.png
 
 
gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_50.png


Operational run has been showing this as well the last few runs, but timing is a few days later.

#1213
OKwx2k4

Posted Today, 01:33 PM

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Whenever today's weather cycles back around it will be amazing here. Great 30mph gusting winds blasting drizzle all day and temps are going to crash under a clearing sky here in little awhile. Should make for a memorable January day down the road for sure. :)

#1214
Thunder98

Posted Today, 02:58 PM

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It's amazing how much cold and cloudier it is in these Midwest cities compared to 1st half of November 2016.

 

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