November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

e11 of the GEFS is deranged. Has us with almost 18" at the end of the period.

Hey, I wouldn't rule out you all getting some winter soon too.

[St Paul Storm]

Already 39F here with drizzle and fog, headed up to 45 today.

 

I’m 40 yrs old but I feel like I’m in my early 20s because of all the snow I shovel every winter. Just kidding peeps! I moved to MN in the summer of 2014. Winter is my favorite season by far. Summer severe wx is exciting, but there’s nothing like tracking a winter storm. Unfortunately my first 3 winters here have be lame-o. Our biggest single snowfall in 2014 was 3.5”, and snowfall the last 2 winters have been around 20-25” below normal. We need to turn that around this winter. My snowblower needs a workout.

[hlcater]

Two things on this..

 

Were there any NOAA maps that showed Chicago below normal for this (or any) period?

 

Over at Amwx, they fire up a thread every time it appears there will be a stretch of above normal temps, but NADA for a below normal (top 10 even) cold period which has been much more rare in this era of overall global warmth. And I'm not saying I want it cold every month all the time, but the bias is very obvious there. 

That's because they are all 100% sold that earth will have +500 degree anomalies everywhere by the end of the century. Anything that has below normal anomalies is a hoax. Don't mention any faults with climate change or be damned.

[OKwx2k4]

That's because they are all 100% sold that earth will have +500 degree anomalies everywhere by the end of the century. Anything that has below normal anomalies is a hoax. Don't mention any faults with climate change or be damned.

Yes. They helped me lose all hope in modern "climate science" over there. I try diligently to see 2 sides of everything but they're all going to miss a once in a generational climate shift while waiting for the world to melt.

The reason I don't talk about warmth is because I honestly hate it. I definitely don't deny that it has been very warm. After 26 out of 32 winters (my lifetime) being above average in the temperature category, I'm just more used to what should be anomalous, sunny, 63 degree days in the winter than I probably should be and they really bore me. Same with severe weather. I'm used to it. Doesn't really excite me much anymore. I deal with it up to 18 weeks a year, others don't. Point remains the same though, I love the cold. I'd rather talk about it with people who enjoy it too vs people who are scared to say the word "cold".

[NEJeremy]

We did. Highs in the 60s today and Friday here. 

06Z GFS would have us run at 70 on Friday

[Minny_Weather]

That's because they are all 100% sold that earth will have +500 degree anomalies everywhere by the end of the century. Anything that has below normal anomalies is a hoax. Don't mention any faults with climate change or be damned.

I took a gander over there a couple weeks ago. They were convinced that this past active hurricane season was the "breakthrough" and from here on out we will be in an apocalyptic scenario where global warming will kill us all.

 

Two straight torch Winters? THE END IS NEAR!!!! THANKS TRUMP

[james1976]

Nothing thru Thanksgiving on GFS.

Saturday looks cold and windy.

[St Paul Storm]

Nothing thru Thanksgiving on GFS.

Saturday looks cold and windy.

Almost no precip for the full 384 loop here. I don’t believe that, but still. It’s ugly.

[james1976]

Almost no precip for the full 384 loop here. I don’t believe that, but still. It’s ugly.

Its trying to show a couple systems post 26th but thats so far out to get excited about.

[Niko]

Currently, 46F and sunny. Its gorgeous outside.

[GDR]

Wow that gfs run sucked. Don't hold your breath for a white thanksgiving.

[Tom]

12z Euro looks like the GFS next week and is pretty darn cold. Missed the clipper for the Tue/Wed period but out towards the 24th the Hudson Bay Ridge pops and the jet begins to cut underneath as planned. This is when I think we’ll see the storms coming into the west/Rockies. Encouraged to see this show up in the models.

[Niko]

12z Euro looks like the GFS next week and is pretty darn cold. Missed the clipper for the Tue/Wed period but out towards the 24th the Hudson Bay Ridge pops and the jet begins to cut underneath as planned. This is when I think we’ll see the storms coming into the west/Rockies. Encouraged to see this show up in the models.

Tom, Looks interesting after Thanksgiving holiday and especially into the beginning of Met Winter. Looks like -NAO will be strengthening by then.

[Niko]

Wow that gfs run sucked. Don't hold your breath for a white thanksgiving.

Actually, that is good for holiday travelers.

[Minny_Weather]

Most of the EPS members are having hot flashes around Thanksgiving week.

[Tom]

Most of the EPS members are having hot flashes around Thanksgiving week.

No joke! Just saw them. This would be a big fail if the King is wrong. Glaring differences between GEFS and EPS.

[hlcater]

Most of the EPS members are having hot flashes around Thanksgiving week.

What do you mean, +temp anomalies? I'd assume it's this given the picture of the ridging over the central conus that I saw somewhere.

[Snowlover76]

Most of the EPS members are having hot flashes around Thanksgiving week.

Gonna be a torch winter out here this year

[Minny_Weather]

Gonna be a torch winter out here this year

One model run ≠ a torch. All the parent models still show us being on the edge of the cold next week.

[jaster220]

Most of the EPS members are having hot flashes around Thanksgiving week.

 

EPS was totally blind to recent cold, showed torchy look just days prior to the record setting cold blast = extra salt grains req'd

[Minny_Weather]

What do you mean, +temp anomalies? I'd assume it's this given the picture of the ridging over the central conus that I saw somewhere.

Yeah. As long as the parent model shows the cold air, I'm not gonna buy anything the ensembles say.

[hlcater]

Yeah. As long as the parent model shows the cold air, I'm not gonna buy anything the ensembles say.

At long range, I'd actually support the other way around. This helps to account for some of the variability since 1 run of one model has potential to be much more wildly variable than a 21 member ensemble. The individual members of course helping to produce an average, increasing skill and reliability in the long range slightly. You can then look at the individual members if you wish to see how consistent they are, if at all. 

 

EDIT: also dont mind snowlover, he is essentially the embodiment of throwing in the towel. There's being negative, then you go way down, and you've got snowlover, who probably hasnt had a positive post since 2015.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL It's not going to be a torch. But to say that us Nebraska folks are inching for anything even a drop of rain is an understatement. Haven't seen any meaningful moisture in a month. 

[Minny_Weather]

LOL It's not going to be a torch. But to say that us Nebraska folks are inching for anything even a drop of rain is an understatement. Haven't seen any meaningful moisture in a month.

I'm gonna need to do some research on how many consecutive NDJF periods we've set at least one record max. Probably since 2010-11.

[Minny_Weather]

Okay, I researched. I was right, the last winter where we did not set at least one record high during the DJF period was 2010-11. I want that to not happen.

[Minny_Weather]

Not to get hopes up, but I must say. Things are looking up for precip chances here Fri-Sat. Like, we may get more than 0.01" of QPF.

[OKwx2k4]

Not weather related but some good friends of mine are going to be on Bushcraft Build-off tonight on the Discovery channel.

[Niko]

Looks like models are trending towards a quiet week for next week. It will be on the chilly side though.

[jaster220]

Calumet MI where winter has gained a foot-hold

 

 

[Niko]

Calumet MI where winter has gained a foot-hold

 

imageproxy.jpeg

Thats way north...no wonder they have that much.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not to get hopes up, but I must say. Things are looking up for precip chances here Fri-Sat. Like, we may get more than 0.01" of QPF.

Dont jinx us!

[gabel23]

Calumet MI where winter has gained a foot-hold

 

imageproxy.jpeg

That's a place that has had a record setting 355.9" of snow in 78-79' and a least amount of 81.3" in 1930-31. Could you imagine that?! Our max around my parts is like 70"; that's not even close to their min record!

[Minny_Weather]

That's a place that has had a record setting 355.9" of snow in 78-79' and a least amount of 81.3" in 1930-31. Could you imagine that?! Our max around my parts is like 70"; that's not even close to their min record!

How is civilization even possible there during Winter?

[james1976]

00Z GFS basically ridge after this weekend. Actually theres a small timeframe where almost the entire lower 48 is under a ridge.

[GDR]

The pattern for the next 2-3 weeks sucks right now. If the cfsv2 is remotely close for dec we all could be wearing shorts for Christmas.

[Tom]

Last night, it almost felt balmy with a 48F temp and southerly breeze.  Showers have moved across the area this morning and temps are still holding steady in the upper 40's.  The breezy day from yesterday knocked off more leaves and I'm noticing more typical mid November bare trees.

 

I've been analyzing the pattern and the behavior of the EPS/GEFS in the Day 5+ range and something similar is happening which I noticed both of them were doing back in mid Oct, for when they both were trying to figure out the pattern for the final 2 weeks of Oct.  For a few days now, the EPS was suggesting a torchy pattern across the central CONUS right around Thanksgiving into the following holiday weekend, while the GEFS were much colder.  I think the Euro's problem, which has been a known bias, is holding to much trough in the west in a period where the LRC will flash the cycling pattern and try to pop a +PNA pattern right around this period.  I believe the GEFS are right and somewhat amplify the west coast ridge and the usual "catch up" of the EPS may be in play.  Look at how the pattern looked back on Oct 26th...there was a massive NE PAC ridge.  I don't think it will be this big, however, it does suggest to look for ridging across western Canada.  Remember, the pattern won't be "exact", but "similar", so it's up to you and try to figure out what it may look like.

 

 

 

When I see the overnight 00z EPS do this...you can see it may be seeing the colder trend in the Week 2 period....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

How is civilization even possible there during Winter?

 

At times (like last Dec) it's really not. Dude who had moved to the Keweenaw region from Maine to see more snow, got to experience the extreme and asked that very question.."why do people even live here in the winter??" 

 

And it's not just a ton of SN, it's conditions like these that often go along with an active pattern up there..

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Marquette MI

418 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

 

MIZ001>003-005>007-085-151830-

Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Marquette-Alger-Luce-

Northern Schoolcraft-

Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton,

Hancock, Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry,

and Seney

418 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

 

A low pressure system will track eastward across Upper Michigan

today and exit the region tonight, while strengthening slightly.

Strong and gusty north-northwest winds are expected to develop on

the backside of this system late this afternoon across the west

and through the overnight hours across the central and east near

Lake Superior. Out west, especially near Lake Superior and across

the Keweenaw Peninsula, wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be

possible this evening through midnight. Near Lake Superior across

the central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan, wind gusts up

to 40 to 45 mph will be possible tonight through the early

morning hours on Thursday. Further inland from Lake Superior, wind

gusts could approach 30 to 35 mph at times.

 

These winds may be strong enough to break small tree limbs and

cause difficult travel conditions along west to east oriented

highways.

 

[Tom]

Moving along, and looking beyond the holiday weekend, changes are brewing in East Asia and near the Bearing Sea and we will begin to see those changes showing up across N.A.  The long range tools that I have used and shown have worked extremely well since late Sept when the new LRC was evolving and the East Asian pattern eventually manifested itself over into our continent.   We now know that the Hudson Bay/Archipelago vortex is now beginning to retrograde westward (just like it did in the previous LRC 30-day harmonic cycle), and we also know this would be replaced by a ridge because of what is happening near the Sea of Okhotsk as the Bearing Sea ridge is poking farther west and replacing what was a trough in this region to more of a ridge.   See map below...

 

 

 

 

In East Asia (Sea of Okhotsk), the ridge that has set up around the 11th/12th of Nov will continue thru the 24th, which, by then, will be replaced by a developing trough.  See the GIF illustration below and you can see this ridge get knocked down by the 25th and slowly makes its way into the Bearing Sea to close out the month of November.  So, with that being said, what should we look for in N.A. you may ask???  I foresee a big trough/vortex evolve, where it has been a common placement during this year's LRC cycle, right smack dab over Hudson Bay to close out November and ultimately begin December.   Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies on Monday, and now both GEFS/EPS are all suggesting this Bearing Sea trough/Aleutian Low to take over and replace the Bearing Sea ridge in the extended.  If this happens, look out for Ol' Man Winter to take over in December for much of the nation.  This means, the Plains will get wintry and veer away from the ridgy pattern.

[jaster220]

When I see the overnight 00z EPS do this...you can see it may be seeing the colder trend in the Week 2 period....

 

Michael Clark at BAMwx had tweeted how horrible the EPS has been in reading cold signals this autumn; constantly in catch-up mode - not a good tool for this current upper air pattern. Peeps need to stop freaking about every warm EPS or CFS run..seriously. 

 

Back to this week(end). It's only mid-November, a month known (here at least) for a lack of measurable snows. As I've posted, the 11-15/16 1989 bliz was really unique for SWMI - a rare and awesome event not repeated in almost 30 yrs now. And while initial models showed this next system to phase better, the further south track is what we want for our winter tbh. 

 

I'm quite confident that were it January, we'd be looking at back-to-back nice snow systems and stacking some serious flakes. 

 

 

 

EDIT:  Reviewing some historical data, 77% of the last (18) Nov's have brought Marshall 3" or less total snowfall. So, the vast majority of seasons winter doesn't show up until Dec. Often after the 20th. Any season having most days with snow cover before that date, I would consider an early starter. 2013 for example started on the 8th, and last year started about the same time but ofc fizzled as quickly as it got going. 

Edited November 15, 2017 by jaster220

[Tom]

Did anyone see the 00z GEFS snowfall maps???  Nice pattern, ey???  The Plains looking MUCH better....And...it will begin to "look a lot like Christmas" soon enough....

 

Sorry for all the posts this morning, I've been busy with work and haven't been able to post much on my long range thoughts going forward.  Lastly, but not least, GEFS are now advertising a potential "game changer" between the 25th-30th of the month.  GEFS showing a Strat warming event to pop over the Pole in the extended.  If this happens, it suggests a very cold mid/late December period.  Huh, that would be "fitting" to the PV intrusion we just had not long ago, remember???