November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Winter is here. Getting some snow showers with gusty winds.

Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?

[VMB443]

Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?

Not at the airport to my knowledge - we just had a burst of snow grains for about two minutes - looked like snow from the window but then I stepped outside and it was just grains.

[WBadgersW]

Do you know if MKE had its first official flakes?

Officially, I don't think so.

[OKwx2k4]

Seeing a rising AO and NAO in the extended models right now. Kinda disappointing. Hope they both drop after mid-month.

[jaster220]

Seeing a rising AO and NAO in the extended models right now. Kinda disappointing. Hope they both drop after mid-month.

Bound to relax at some point post recurve storm.

[Niko]

I think November has eyes on parts of the lower 48 with some real cold temperatures to settle in.

[Minny_Weather]

I think November has eyes on parts of the lower 48 with some real cold temperatures to settle in.

I'm liking what I've been seeing for the past week and what I'm seeing in the future from models. Fluctuating temperatures with cold being dominant, while still having a thaw day or two in the 60s for a little break. I prefer cold nonstop, but that is a pattern I can deal with and is way better than the "record warmth with occasional dips all the way to average" bs we dealt with last season.

[Tom]

I'm liking what I've been seeing for the past week and what I'm seeing in the future from models. Fluctuating temperatures with cold being dominant, while still having a thaw day or two in the 60s for a little break. I prefer cold nonstop, but that is a pattern I can deal with and is way better than the "record warmth with occasional dips all the way to average" bs we dealt with last season.

I agree.  The opening 2 weeks of this month's pattern couldn't be more different than last year.  Last year, we opened the month with a high of 75F and basically stayed in the mid/upper 60's through the 10th.  Not only that, it was a boring wx pattern.  

 

Happy Halloween!  It's going to be the coldest Halloween here in 21 years.  The wind was blowing all night.  I can't remember an Autumn that has produced so many colder/windy days around here that last for days.  It feels like forever.

[jaster220]

 

 

Happy Halloween!  It's going to be the coldest Halloween here in 21 years.  The wind was blowing all night.  I can't remember an Autumn that has produced so many colder/windy days around here that last for days.  It feels like forever.

 

No kidding and the winds were still strong this morning with gusts strong enough to push my car occasionally, it would've been seriously tundra-like during any colder month than Oct. Happy Halloween back atcha and others too ofc, you got a Skilling graphic to back up your 21 yrs statement? And yes, the past year's worth of wx around here has been pretty dang dull as it gets. Looks like we'll be making up for some lost time going forward 

[Tom]

No kidding and the winds were still strong this morning with gusts strong enough to push my car occasionally, it would've been seriously tundra-like during any colder month than Oct. Happy Halloween back atcha and others too ofc, you got a Skilling graphic to back up your 21 yrs statement? And yes, the past year's worth of wx around here has been pretty dang dull as it gets. Looks like we'll be making up for some lost time going forward 

No graphics, it was mentioned on a local news channel:

 

http://abc7chicago.com/weather/chicago-to-see-coldest-halloween-in-over-2-decades/2585070/

 

 

Edit: WGN just posted one up

 

[Tom]

The last CFSv2 daily run in October is holding onto the idea that there will be a strong SE ridge next month.  Central CONUS battle zone will be draped across our sub forum.  Expect to see a high variability next month for a lot of us.  Folks up north in MN/WI region may stand a better chance with more persistent cold allowing for heightened chances for wintry precip.  Winter is here and looks locked for those up north.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201711.gif

[Tom]

As we open November, nature would like to lay down another "refresher" in the Northwoods...I think these folks will have a big winter....

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northern_Great_Lakes/nsm_depth/201710/nsm_depth_2017103105_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/dlh/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Tom]

-EPO driving the colder trends Week 2 for the central CONUS???  Here are the 5-day mean in temp trends from last nights 00z run compared to what it was showing 3 days ago....

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017103100/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_288.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102800/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360.png

[westMJim]

Not sure if I wanted to post this in October or November so I will post it in both.  For the last half hour or so I have been getting a heavy snow shower with very large flakes and it has came down hard enough for the snow to cover the ground and roofs and tops of cars.  So at least here at my house this will be the first measurable snow fall of the winter of 2017/8

[jaster220]

 

 

-EPO driving the colder trends Week 2 for the central CONUS???  Here are the 5-day mean in temp trends from last nights 00z run compared to what it was showing 3 days ago....

 

Significant trend, could be a theme for the winter, eh? This is the last week for truly colorful trees (in the countryside at least). We'll still have all the super-hardy Oaks, Maples, Elms, Willows, etc that just turn various shades of brownish-yellow, some holding leafs all winter or at least til there's pond icings, lol

[westMJim]

Here are some snow fall totals from some locations around Michigan for October 31, 1917

Date:Oct 31 13:30:00
Type:SNOW
City: SE Grand Rapids
Magnitude:M0.4 INCH
County:KENT
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH 930 AM. 0.1 OF AN INCH FELL PRIOR TO 5 AM. ANOTHER 0.3 OF AN INCH FELL BETWEEN 830-930 AM. SNOW ACCUMULATION

 

Date:Oct 31 12:00:00
Type:SNOW
City:1 WNW WATERS
Magnitude:M5.9 INCH
County:OTSEGO
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:4.4 INCHES LAST 4 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 6 INCHES. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS

Date:Oct 31 13:46:00
Type:HEAVY SNOW
City:HERMAN
Magnitude:M6.0 INCH
County:BARAGA
State:MI
Source:CO-OP OBSERVER
Details:9 INCH SNOW DEPTH

[westMJim]

Significant trend, could be a theme for the winter, eh? This is the last week for truly colorful trees (in the countryside at least). We'll still have all the super-hardy Oaks, Maples, Elms, Willows, etc that just turn various shades of brownish-yellow, some holding leafs all winter or at least til there's pond icings, lol

Many of the trees still have leaves on them here in the Grand Rapids metro area, In fact much more than average for Halloween. Not sure if that means anything or not.

[Niko]

Many of the trees still have leaves on them here in the Grand Rapids metro area, In fact much more than average for Halloween. Not sure if that means anything or not.

Here, 65% are bare. Going towards past peak.

[westMJim]

This will be the snowiest October 31st in Grand Rapids since 1932 when .03" was reported. The most snow fall on the 31st is 1.5" and that was in 1917. Hum does that make this a hundred year event? BTY as for hints for snow on Halloween and the upcoming winter well that is a mixed bag. In 1917/18 Grand Rapids recorded 75.9" and in 1932/33 that winter GR only recorded 43.6" 

[james1976]

Wound up system around 12th-13th showing up on GFS for upper midwest. BSR in play?

[OKwx2k4]

No graphics, it was mentioned on a local news channel:

 

http://abc7chicago.com/weather/chicago-to-see-coldest-halloween-in-over-2-decades/2585070/

 

 

Edit: WGN just posted one up

 

That's awesome. The old 95-96 analog huh? I like it.

[Tom]

For the 2nd run in a row, 12z Euro trying to push the cold farther south during the middle, and more so, at the end of next week.  A pretty potent cold shot in the works and the ensembles are picking up on it.  Largely below normal next week after brief spikes AN in between systems.  Would be the coldest air of the season if that should work out.

[Niko]

November 2nd week (next week), especially by middle of week, will feature some really chilly temps. My highs stand a shot at near 40 for highs.

[OKwx2k4]

November's progression (forecast, obviously) looks spot on awesome from where I sit.

[Tom]

CPC's thinking for the month of November...I'd say this is a pretty good look overall, can't complain....I would have to agree with these maps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago, the Euro was showing upper 70s here next Monday.  It sped up the front, so Sunday became the warm day.  Yesterday's run had low 70s here sunday.  It has continued to speed up the front, so now it comes through midday Sunday.  Our high temp Sunday is down to mid 50s, which is only avg.

[jaster220]

GFS painting a nice 1" qpf streak across SMI..

 

 

[Niko]

GFS painting a nice 1" qpf streak across SMI..

 

gfs_apcpn_us_9.png

There is 10" of snow right there had this been deeper into the colder season. Great times ahead.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Very interesting how the euro keeps getting colder every time i look at it.

[Tom]

 

Very interesting how the euro keeps getting colder every time i look at it.

It kept doing the same thing during the winter of ‘13/‘14 due to the -EPO/-WPO tandem. Playing catch up? I got this feeling the pattern in Nov is going to have plenty of cold HP’s sliding S/SE out of Canada. The Dakotas need to lay down a snow pack and we all are going to be in business heading into late November.

[St Paul Storm]

2nd Winter Weather Advisory of the season. MPX bumped totals for tomorrow to 2-4”. Bring it!

[james1976]

2nd Winter Weather Advisory of the season. MPX bumped totals for tomorrow to 2-4”. Bring it!

Jealous! Only 3 hours south of you!

[bud2380]

2nd Winter Weather Advisory of the season. MPX bumped totals for tomorrow to 2-4”. Bring it!

Looks like more snow chances Friday night especially just north of the twin cities too. Gfs and nam showing several inches possible.

[Niko]

2nd Winter Weather Advisory of the season. MPX bumped totals for tomorrow to 2-4”. Bring it!

Tis the season!

[james1976]

Mid month looking interesting each model run.

[Tom]

Welcome to November!  Here's what we can expect for Chicago:

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like its snowing over OMA this morning...could be virga though...folks near INDY had their first taste of snow early this morning as that wave out in the plains made its way across the Midwest.

[jaster220]

Mid month looking interesting each model run.

 

Meaning basically, the GFS right? Only model that goes out that far. I guess if you're reaching beyond d10, it's better to see interesting vs boring. This is the season when exciting things in fantasy range may actually not be a mirage, as they've been in years past.  

[jaster220]

Welcome to November!  Here's what we can expect for Chicago:

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like its snowing over OMA this morning...could be virga though...folks near INDY had their first taste of snow early this morning as that wave out in the plains made its way across the Midwest.

 

Love the way temps really drop during Nov, and there's a shot of legit winter wx for SMI beginning this month. And, in cold and/or lucky years we can get some decent early winter storms. Ofc, one of my all time favorites was the Nov 15-16, 1989 bliz. It wasn't too bad for snow totals downstate in SEMI, but in NMI where I was at deer camp it was an unforgettable early season storm. Even so, per this map SWMI scored up to 20", including Marshall doing great with 6-8" via the deep SLP and strong NW winds. I'd take that in a heart-beat for this time of year! 

 

 

 

And per the CFS moisture won't be an issue, just need some trends colder like the Euro is flashing. I like being in business personally, lol

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro still keeping the colder look next week but what interests me more is the pattern becomes a bit more favorable for a storm system coming out of the Rockies Day 7/8 and tracking due west/east.  HP centered over the Dakotas and the northern tier may be enough to "seed" this system enough cold air to produce a wintry set up.  Classic "share the wealth" track but to far out to pin down the details.  With the flow becoming more zonal-ish across our sub forum over the next 10 days, these sneaky waves could show up from anywhere.  The good thing is, there is an enormous amount of cold air bottling up in Canada to provide the other important ingredient to spur some wintry events.

[jaster220]

00z Euro still keeping the colder look next week but what interests me more is the pattern becomes a bit more favorable for a storm system coming out of the Rockies Day 7/8 and tracking due west/east.  HP centered over the Dakotas and the northern tier may be enough to "seed" this system enough cold air to produce a wintry set up.  Classic "share the wealth" track but to far out to pin down the details.  With the flow becoming more zonal-ish across our sub forum over the next 10 days, these sneaky waves could show up from anywhere.  The good thing is, there is an enormous amount of cold air bottling up in Canada to provide the other important ingredient to spur some wintry events.

 

Per the BSR (R stands for Rule btw, no need to add "rule" after), this was highlighted by you a few days back. I think it's totally plausible for that to be maybe an early vs of the Thanksgiving '04 storm. A fully traditional winter storm but dropping maybe 4-6, perhaps 8" jackpot totals. Nothing huge mid-winter but certainly huge for middle 10 days of Nov, especially over our way moreso than the cold prone Plains. 

 

Speaking of wintery look - wow at how much areal coverage returns of snow on this 1-Nov radar - Hello winter!