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November 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Cloudy and downright nice out there. Temp at 41F. Perfect for inside painting. Just finished painting my basement steps (phew...its not an easy job) and all I did was paint 20 steps. Utube helps a lot w all the tools and tips they provide. :) ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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500mb pattern for next Thursday at 0Z from the last 3 runs of the GFS. You can see a little more blocking on 12Z today, but the southwest ridge is still strong and northwest flow rules. Into next weekend, the 12Z GFS maintains the same northwest flow as well. On this run upper level flow doesn't even become zonal until around the 1st of December. Personally I hate northwest flow here in Nebraska. Dry, windy cold frontal passages and wild temperature swings are about all we see here as the western edge of the trough to our east usually cuts right through our state.

Thurs12Z.png

Fri0Z.png

12ZFri.png

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Gary Lezak won't know exactly till sometime in mid December to be 100% certain.  Now, you can see harmonic mini cycles as I have pointed out many times on here but the general cycle length has yet TBD.  There will be systems coming out of the SW and post Thanksgiving is the timeline right now.  In fact, 00z EPS showing a big trough coming out of the SW around the last days of November.

 

I noticed on this morning's map, there's your ND High that was part of that "sneaky" system last month. If it was really pressing or chasing our SLP then we would see it blow up that storm like the 3km NAM wanted to do yesterday. As it stands, the HP doesn't really push south, so the cold just filters in moderately leaving the LP to do it's own work and without the cold of winter, well it can only do so much with marginal conditions. Maybe next time we'll have all the cold ingredients in the blender..

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Cloud deck lowering and thickening as any morning sunshine has now faded away. Temp holding steady at 40ish.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I noticed on this morning's map, there's your ND High that was part of that "sneaky" system last month. If it was really pressing or chasing our SLP then we would see it blow up that storm like the 3km NAM wanted to do yesterday. As it stands, the HP doesn't really push south, so the cold just filters in moderately leaving the LP to do it's own work and without the cold of winter, well it can only do so much with marginal conditions. Maybe next time we'll have all the cold ingredients in the blender..

 

attachicon.gif20171116 Intellicast Surf map-10am.jpg

So many low Pressure areas on that map, but, question here is, will they provide the real deal here in our neck of the woods, or just simply mean "Nada".

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Radar looking dry for now. Rain is too far to my west, so looking like a cloudy chilly day. Temps fell a degree. Currently @ 39F now under cloudy skies.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The NWS from Chicago did some research and found that colder than normal Novembers during La Nina's tend to produce BN temps for the Winter season. They also said this leads towards AN snowfall.  The way we are trending this season, I like the chances for a large area of our sub forum to have a lot to look forward to this cold season. 

Sorry but this will be a long post.

 I did some research to see if that was also the case for Grand Rapids (my guess was it should) First off going back to 1950 I looked at all the years that had a weak or moderate La Nina (at this time I left out strong ones as this year is forecasted to be either weak or moderate) then I looked to see if that November was colder than average or not. If yes, I looked to see how the winter was. Here is the results of my research.

Weak La Nina years with a colder than average November and the departure from average. 2008 -1.1° 2000 -2.6° 1974 -2.6° 1971 -2.1. Moderate La Nina years that November was colder than average and the departure 1995 -8.1 1970 -1.9° 1955 -4.8°

So now I looked at each year was and how the winter went all reading are for GRR all temperatures are departures from average.

Weak La Nina

2008 November temp -1.1° snow fall 10.0”. December temp -3.0°  snow fall 54.6”. January -6.9° snow fall 29.9” February-1.0° snow 10.0” March +1.7° snow 0.4” season snow 104.9”

2000 In 2000 November was -2.6° with 23.0” of snow, December was -10.0° with 59.2” of snow, January was milder  at +1.1° and only 4.1” of snow February was -1.0 and only 7.4” of snow March was -3.1° with 4.1” of snow thanks to a snowy November and December the season seen 98.1” of snow’

1974 November was -2.6° and there was 8.9” of snow. December was near average at -0.8° with 16.5” of snow fall. January was above average at 0.8° and only 10.7” of snow February was -2.5° and 10.6” of snow while Mach winter continued with a departure of -6.8° and 11.8” of snow the season was below average snow fall wise with 68.9”

1971 November was -2.1° with 3.7” of snow fall, December was mild at +2.8° and only 3.7” of snow, January turned cold with a departure of -3.6° and 22.6” of snow fall. February the cold continued with a departure of -4.9° and 16.9” of snow.  Winter hung on into March with a departure of -6.0 and 14.2” of snow for the winter there was 79.8” of snow.

Now for the 3 colder than average moderate La Nina November’s

1995 November was very cold with a departure of -8.1° and 20.8” of snow. December also was cold at departure of -5.0 and 17.4” of snow. January was -2.7° and 13.5” of snow February came in -2.3° but only 6.9” of snow and March was -7.2° and seen 19.3” of snow. Total for the season was 79.7”

1970 November was -1.9° and there was 6.1” of snow, December was -3.5° and was snowy with 33.3” January the cold continued -6.1° and so did the snow 27.2” February the cold stayed -2.7° but snow stopped 4.4” and for March winter returned -6.6° and 25.9” of snow fall total for the season was 101.4”

1955 That November was -4.4° and seen 18.6” of snow December was -3.8° with 9.4” of snow fall January was average at -0.1° and seen little snow 5.3”. February was -2.3° and the snow came back with22.9” and March the cold hung around -5.5° and so did the snow 17.3” total for the season 79.3”

So yes looking back it looks like past La Nina years that had a colder then average November were for colder than average and had at least average to above average snow fall.  So far this November here at Grand Rapids the departure is -4.7° but so far only 0.2” of snow fall. So will this winter be cold and snowy? Time will tell.

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Yeah I know. It's stupid.

Tbh, I kinda like it. Warm and dry > cold and dry. You said you love that though right? Lol cuz I can't stand cold and dry. Would it be cool if I give you my apartment here in exchange for your place back in Houston until it snows? In other words, living in Houston the rest of my life then :P

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So many low Pressure areas on that map, but, question here is, will they provide the real deal here in our neck of the woods, or just simply mean "Nada".

That’s funny. When I looked at that map all I noticed were all of the big blue H symbols. It’s been a rough few winters......

 

We need one of these lows to sling around the backside of a departing high and wrap up into a spread the wealth storm.

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Tbh, I kinda like it. Warm and dry > cold and dry. You said you love that though right? Lol cuz I can't stand cold and dry. Would it be cool if I give you my apartment here in exchange for your place back in Houston until it snows? In other words, living in Houston the rest of my life then :P

I plan on staying here in Lincoln forever. Unless I get my job offer turned down here. Then I'm moving further North.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Sorry but this will be a long post.

I did some research to see if that was also the case for Grand Rapids (my guess was it should) First off going back to 1950 I looked at all the years that had a weak or moderate La Nina (at this time I left out strong ones as this year is forecasted to be either weak or moderate) then I looked to see if that November was colder than average or not. If yes, I looked to see how the winter was. Here is the results of my research.

Weak La Nina years with a colder than average November and the departure from average. 2008 -1.1° 2000 -2.6° 1974 -2.6° 1971 -2.1. Moderate La Nina years that November was colder than average and the departure 1995 -8.1 1970 -1.9° 1955 -4.8°

So now I looked at each year was and how the winter went all reading are for GRR all temperatures are departures from average.

Weak La Nina

2008 November temp -1.1° snow fall 10.0”. December temp -3.0° snow fall 54.6”. January -6.9° snow fall 29.9” February-1.0° snow 10.0” March +1.7° snow 0.4” season snow 104.9”

2000 In 2000 November was -2.6° with 23.0” of snow, December was -10.0° with 59.2” of snow, January was milder at +1.1° and only 4.1” of snow February was -1.0 and only 7.4” of snow March was -3.1° with 4.1” of snow thanks to a snowy November and December the season seen 98.1” of snow’

1974 November was -2.6° and there was 8.9” of snow. December was near average at -0.8° with 16.5” of snow fall. January was above average at 0.8° and only 10.7” of snow February was -2.5° and 10.6” of snow while Mach winter continued with a departure of -6.8° and 11.8” of snow the season was below average snow fall wise with 68.9”

1971 November was -2.1° with 3.7” of snow fall, December was mild at +2.8° and only 3.7” of snow, January turned cold with a departure of -3.6° and 22.6” of snow fall. February the cold continued with a departure of -4.9° and 16.9” of snow. Winter hung on into March with a departure of -6.0 and 14.2” of snow for the winter there was 79.8” of snow.

Now for the 3 colder than average moderate La Nina November’s

1995 November was very cold with a departure of -8.1° and 20.8” of snow. December also was cold at departure of -5.0 and 17.4” of snow. January was -2.7° and 13.5” of snow February came in -2.3° but only 6.9” of snow and March was -7.2° and seen 19.3” of snow. Total for the season was 79.7”

1970 November was -1.9° and there was 6.1” of snow, December was -3.5° and was snowy with 33.3” January the cold continued -6.1° and so did the snow 27.2” February the cold stayed -2.7° but snow stopped 4.4” and for March winter returned -6.6° and 25.9” of snow fall total for the season was 101.4”

1955 That November was -4.4° and seen 18.6” of snow December was -3.8° with 9.4” of snow fall January was average at -0.1° and seen little snow 5.3”. February was -2.3° and the snow came back with22.9” and March the cold hung around -5.5° and so did the snow 17.3” total for the season 79.3”

So yes looking back it looks like past La Nina years that had a colder then average November were for colder than average and had at least average to above average snow fall. So far this November here at Grand Rapids the departure is -4.7° but so far only 0.2” of snow fall. So will this winter be cold and snowy? Time will tell.

Great research!

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It's 63 and actually a little humid here today. The best part- literally no wind! The flags here are completely limp and not even the few remaining dead leaves are moving. I honestly can't remember a day this calm in ages. It's wonderful :P

43F with a stiff windchill in the 30's...has that same feel like in winter when a good storm is setting in. GRR mentioned that PWATs will be in the top 10% of historical avgs for the period. We continue to get the royal moisture treatment around here. NMI had 3-4" qpf with the Wed system #crazy stuff!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That’s funny. When I looked at that map all I noticed were all of the big blue H symbols. It’s been a rough few winters......

 

We need one of these lows to sling around the backside of a departing high and wrap up into a spread the wealth storm.

The big question here is, when?! Down the road looks to be dry and quiet. Cold temps though. H/L are expected to be in the 30s/20s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm still waiting for that "fast start" to winter everyone talked about LOL. Really, you can say all you want about the NAO being negative and whatever, but there is a blocking signature in Canada, and until that breaks and allows a trough in the southwest to form, most of us will not see that snow this November. Lets face it, the models looks terrible as we end November.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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I'm still waiting for that "fast start" to winter everyone talked about LOL. Really, you can say all you want about the NAO being negative and whatever, but there is a blocking signature in Canada, and until that breaks and allows a trough in the southwest to form, most of us will not see that snow this November. Lets face it, the models looks terrible as we end November.

Don't worry, the LRC will recycle during late March when everything falls as cold rain again!

 

But seriously though, D**n Nebraskans complaining and whining about everything, am I right? You know what would make this place better? Get rid of all Nebraskans! Yeah, ban them all. That'll keep the complaining off of here.

 

Oh crap. *Moves to Kansas*

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Don't worry, the LRC will recycle during late March when everything falls as cold rain again!

 

But seriously though, d**n Nebraskans complaining and whining about everything, am I right? You know what would make this place better? Get rid of all Nebraskans! Yeah, ban them all. That'll keep the complaining off of here.

 

Oh crap. *Moves to Kansas*

Such a funny guy

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Definitely think that bright band will rapidly cool temperatures to allow that. Meaning local areas with in that band could see some heavier burst of wet snow.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Sorry but this will be a long post.

I did some research to see if that was also the case for Grand Rapids (my guess was it should) First off going back to 1950 I looked at all the years that had a weak or moderate La Nina (at this time I left out strong ones as this year is forecasted to be either weak or moderate) then I looked to see if that November was colder than average or not. If yes, I looked to see how the winter was. Here is the results of my research.

Weak La Nina years with a colder than average November and the departure from average. 2008 -1.1° 2000 -2.6° 1974 -2.6° 1971 -2.1. Moderate La Nina years that November was colder than average and the departure 1995 -8.1 1970 -1.9° 1955 -4.8°

So now I looked at each year was and how the winter went all reading are for GRR all temperatures are departures from average.

Weak La Nina

2008 November temp -1.1° snow fall 10.0”. December temp -3.0° snow fall 54.6”. January -6.9° snow fall 29.9” February-1.0° snow 10.0” March +1.7° snow 0.4” season snow 104.9”

2000 In 2000 November was -2.6° with 23.0” of snow, December was -10.0° with 59.2” of snow, January was milder at +1.1° and only 4.1” of snow February was -1.0 and only 7.4” of snow March was -3.1° with 4.1” of snow thanks to a snowy November and December the season seen 98.1” of snow’

1974 November was -2.6° and there was 8.9” of snow. December was near average at -0.8° with 16.5” of snow fall. January was above average at 0.8° and only 10.7” of snow February was -2.5° and 10.6” of snow while Mach winter continued with a departure of -6.8° and 11.8” of snow the season was below average snow fall wise with 68.9”

1971 November was -2.1° with 3.7” of snow fall, December was mild at +2.8° and only 3.7” of snow, January turned cold with a departure of -3.6° and 22.6” of snow fall. February the cold continued with a departure of -4.9° and 16.9” of snow. Winter hung on into March with a departure of -6.0 and 14.2” of snow for the winter there was 79.8” of snow.

Now for the 3 colder than average moderate La Nina November’s

1995 November was very cold with a departure of -8.1° and 20.8” of snow. December also was cold at departure of -5.0 and 17.4” of snow. January was -2.7° and 13.5” of snow February came in -2.3° but only 6.9” of snow and March was -7.2° and seen 19.3” of snow. Total for the season was 79.7”

1970 November was -1.9° and there was 6.1” of snow, December was -3.5° and was snowy with 33.3” January the cold continued -6.1° and so did the snow 27.2” February the cold stayed -2.7° but snow stopped 4.4” and for March winter returned -6.6° and 25.9” of snow fall total for the season was 101.4”

1955 That November was -4.4° and seen 18.6” of snow December was -3.8° with 9.4” of snow fall January was average at -0.1° and seen little snow 5.3”. February was -2.3° and the snow came back with22.9” and March the cold hung around -5.5° and so did the snow 17.3” total for the season 79.3”

So yes looking back it looks like past La Nina years that had a colder then average November were for colder than average and had at least average to above average snow fall. So far this November here at Grand Rapids the departure is -4.7° but so far only 0.2” of snow fall. So will this winter be cold and snowy? Time will tell.

Great breakdown. I'd say there's a bit of a trend there based solely on La Niña. :)

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Great reason why the LRC is a good tool in a time when the King Euro is having difficulty Day 5+..

 

 

 

FWIW, #Euro skill score past day 5 drops 40%, and by day 7 its less than 35%. So...just saying.:.

 

The Euro, along with the GFS, have missed the -EPO badly all month long and are now trending more negative for early next week.  Both models Day 5+ were suggesting a +EPO but that has all but reversed.  This was one of the main drivers of the cold '13-'14 winter and I'm seeing the same model behaviors again this season which I felt would be happening early on back in October.

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Interesting, Snowy Owls have been spotted in the local area and W MI near Muskegon.  This is not normal for them to be hibernating in this region in mid November.  They say this is due to how cold it has been in the western Arctic regions.  Nature providing more clues???

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Cloudy w more rain coming after a brief break. Temps getting milder @ 45F. Colder later tanite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Overnight 00z EPS illustrating an active pattern as we lock into Winter.  Encouraged to see the EPS flashing the LRC as we will likely be seeing the LRC's cycle #2.  Storms will begin to cut underneath the ridging in Canada and pound the central Rockies and enter the "slot".  Check out these maps below.  Very interesting for the Plains folks, ey???  Back to back storm chances to finish off November and open December???  

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111800/noram/eps_z500_anom_noram_288.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111800/noram/eps_z500_anom_noram_348.png

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@ Tom

 

We are currently sitting at approx. day 44 in the LRC, do you think it goes to day 49-51, (the weekend of 11/25-11/26) before it resets into cycle #2? Or could it go to day 58-59 for a storm system around Dec 2-3? 

It's hard to say right now, but I'm leaning towards a 48-51 day cycle.  I need to see how the pattern evolves right around the 24th/25th and see if it resembles the Oct 6th/7th pattern.

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