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November 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Took the words right outta my mouth Jaster.

 

@Snowlover76.......Its not Winter ...its still Autumn. You make it sound like its March already.  As for the cold, I have been running BN since October and you have also. IMHO this is plenty cold. Also, dont forget, its b4 Thanksgiving, so, do not expect too much. Tbh, any snowstorms we get in November is a bonus in my books.

I agree - Milwaukee only averages 2.5" of snow in November, so this is normal, I'm glad to see the below normal temperatures - I am still very hopeful about this upcoming winter.

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Currently, mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temps are @ 40F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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I get into full-blown winter mode when our lake freezes over. To my surprise that happened overnight last night. Yes it’s been quite cold, but I’m still amazed because the lake is around 110 acres with a max of 57’ deep. According to my neighbor this is the earliest it’s frozen over in 12 years. If the ice survives temps in the 40s today, it should last until Spring. Other than a spike to 50F on Friday, temps might not get above freezing all week. Lock it in, and let’s roll!

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12z Euro Control anyone???  Enjoy any warmth you are lucky to get over the next 7-10 days bc Winter is hear to stay once this month is Finito.

 

A couple wks later in Nov, but for a similar time-frame in Dec of '13. Eerily similar.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We're going to have a cooler than normal month. Big deal. It was dry with no snowfall so as the way it looks, out first measurable snowfall will be sometime in December, which is actually later than normal. Not the roaring start to winter it sounded like was coming. Areas up near the Canadian border and the Rockies have done pretty good, but that's not Omaha, NE ;)

 

I think the reason why some people are b*tching more than normal was the claims of such a fast start to winter coming. We all know it's "only November" and climatologically we shouldn't be expecting that much at this point, but the idea on this forum was that winter was going to come fast and early.

 

Today (CONUS coverage approx 200% of a year ago): 

 

 

 

Your awesome winter of 2009-10 on the #samedate:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Okay, this whole complaining about complaints of those constantly complaining is getting ridiculous. If Nebraskans are bytching about bad trends now for Nebraska, then when the tides turn on you guys in a similar fashion, i.e. the area 50 miles south of you gets blitzed and you guys get zilch, then hold true to your word and don't complain about it. Deal? But what's the fun in that? Getting screwed last second on a storm happens, and it sucks, yet in a sense it's nice for us being Bohemian ShaftCity for years on every storm, to talk to someone like you guys in the upper-midwest that usually do well but get shafted and can then share that disappointment with us. It's like when you bomb a test, hearing your friend say they got the same score is comforting right? More comforting than when they're like "oh I aced it, idk how lol".

 

That said, I know you guys haven't been bone dry like us this month, but what is the title of this topic? November 2017 Observations and Discussion. Okay, so our observation here is - no precip = dry winter. Am I supposed to rejoice about this? Or should I discuss how I actually feel about what it means for us? Being bone dry is part of the equation, and if you disagree then that's part of the discussion that starts. It's called Great Lakes/Great Plains forum, but you act like it's unwarranted for us to be here. I don't agree with nonsense posts that aren't necessarily regarding weather and more-so about emotion (I'm guilty too, I know), but If it's getting to you that much, I'm pretty confident there is a filter where you can block out our posts on here so you don't have to see them. But as much as you might not believe it, we love weather too, and when we don't get any we still want something to talk about, so stop trying to take away my first amendment rights you snow supremacists.

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I get into full-blown winter mode when our lake freezes over. To my surprise that happened overnight last night. Yes it’s been quite cold, but I’m still amazed because the lake is around 110 acres with a max of 57’ deep. According to my neighbor this is the earliest it’s frozen over in 12 years. If the ice survives temps in the 40s today, it should last until Spring. Other than a spike to 50F on Friday, temps might not get above freezing all week. Lock it in, and let’s roll!

 

Yep. I use little metrics like that myself. The sequence of tree-droppings is one, and In this case, standing water puddles being completely frozen over (since we just had a 14 hr stretch in the 20's). With the warm-up this early week (to avg temps I'll add) we're not quite to snow mode down here, but we're doing a great job of getting soil temps down where they need to be for early snows to have staying power and not just melt from underneath. Another 10-ish days should be perfect.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After I post this I am going to go for a walk on this great looking late November day.  The latest temperature at the airport was 45° and here at my house it’s now 48° with full sun.  

Here is some weather extremes for Thanksgiving at Grand Rapids, MI

The warmest high and the warmest low were both recorded on 11/26/1896 the high that day was 65° and the low was 56° the coldest high was 15° in 1930 (11/27) the coldest low was +7 in 1929 (11/28) the wettest was 1.58” in 1968 (11/25) The greatest snow fall was 6.8” in 1945 (11/22) the most snow on the ground was 8” in 2004 (11/25)

This November continues to be one of the few below average temperature November’s with little snow fall. Since 2000 here are the November’s with more than 10” of snow fall. 2000 23.0”, 2004 10.”, 2005 17.3”, 2008 10” and 2014 31.0” On average Grand Rapids has a snowy November 3 times every 10 years.  The November average for GRR is 7.9” so far this year the total is 0.2”

Thanks go out to jaster220 for catching that I had originally had the 31" in November of 2011 instead of 2014. 2014 is the correct November.  

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@ NebraskaWX

 

The 1 post that prolly got a reaction was this:

 

 

 

Remember when people were saying it was gonna be cold? 

:lol:

What a joke. Another craptastic winter

 

His first "question" was a false comment and not an accurate observation on this month. The cold has actually happened, it's been below normal. So, FAIL

 

His later "statement" was again not an observation on this month, but a future-cast for something that hasn't even begun, #winter. Again, FAIL

 

I have zero issue with gripes about the real scenario out there. Truthfully, it's bad enough to stand on it's own legs without employing hyperbole that carries it over the top.. ;)  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After I post this I am going to go for a walk on this great looking late November day.  The latest temperature at the airport was 45° and here at my house it’s now 48° with full sun.  

Here is some weather extremes for Thanksgiving at Grand Rapids, MI

The warmest high and the warmest low were both recorded on 11/26/1896 the high that day was 65° and the low was 56° the coldest high was 15° in 1930 (11/27) the coldest low was +7 in 1929 (11/28) the wettest was 1.58” in 1968 (11/25) The greatest snow fall was 6.8” in 1945 (11/22) the most snow on the ground was 8” in 2004 (11/25)

This November continues to be one of the few below average temperature November’s with little snow fall. Since 2000 here are the November’s with more than 10” of snow fall. 2000 23.0”, 2004 10.”, 2005 17.3”, 2008 10” and 2011 31.0” On average Grand Rapids has a snowy November 3 times every 10 years.  The November average for GRR is 7.9” so far this year the total is 0.2”

 

I thought Nov of '14 had like 3 foot of snow around GR??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ NebraskaWX

 

The 1 post that prolly got a reaction was this:

 

 

His first "question" was a false comment and not an accurate observation on this month. The cold has actually happened, it's been below normal. So, FAIL

 

His later "statement" was again not an observation on this month, but a future-cast for something that hasn't even begun, #winter. Again, FAIL

 

I have zero issue with gripes about the real scenario out there. Truthfully, it's bad enough to stand on it's own legs without employing hyperbole that carries it over the top.. ;)  

 

 

@SnowLover76 just so you know I still love you, but jaster is right.

 

​I think making claims like another craptastic winter is a lot different than acknowledging the past trends weren't necessarily spot on and that the future trends don't look favorable for the next few weeks. I honestly would like to clean up some of this stuff on here too. It's disheartening, especially for rookies who are new that may peek in here, only to be discouraged because of it.

 

Yeah, it does suck out here, sucks harder than a dyson vacuum. So if we express that, we shouldn't get shunned because of it, but unorthodox claims on our end is a bit ridiculous I agree!

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Im sorry Tom but you did forecast a fadt start to winter this month including snow. I remember you predicting a spread the wealth stofm several times this month lol.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Im sorry Tom but you did forecast a fadt start to winter this month including snow. I remember you predicting a spread the wealth stofm several times this month lol.

Coming from the guy that will post any model run map D10 or more out on the internet just to get likes. Give me a break.

 

Heres the deal you can call anybody out for a missed forecast and someone like Tom will own it, learn from it and move on. What has gotten ridiculous is coming in here on a Monday after looking at all the models possible, getting butt hurt and start making crazy claims about a 3-5-4 month long season.  If you would have been in here earlier providing solid information that there wasn't going to be any good storm systems through November and it happened that way, I get it you were right, but you weren't doing that.

 

Don't be the guy that watches the football game and at the end go... I knew they were going to win or lose.  That is why they play the games.  Winter season is the same way, let it happen or at least have a chance to happen.

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Im sorry Tom but you did forecast a fadt start to winter this month including snow. I remember you predicting a spread the wealth stofm several times this month lol.

My forecast failed and it didn’t quite pan out the way I had planned around 11/11. I missed one. However, it doesn’t necessary dictate the general theme I have laid out for the month of Nov across our sub forum.

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Look i dont mean to hurt anyones feelings here, I apologize to you Tom. Its been a rough 10 years since our last best snow in 2009 and its just getting really irritating to see whats happening all the time. But to say i only post for likes is a load of crap lol. I have ran my page for 10+ years and i have a loyal member base so if they want to share they share.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Look i dont mean to hurt anyones feelings here, I apologize to you Tom. Its been a rough 10 years since our last best snow in 2009 and its just getting really irritating to see whats happening all the time. But to say i only post for likes is a load of crap lol. I have ran my page for 10+ years and i have a loyal member base so if they want to share they share.

 

Tbh, I don't even know what I'd do if this scenario had been my fate. I've had it great by comparison and I'm pulling for y'all good Neb peeps to score a great winter. It's not too late for that by any means. Those snow cover maps I posted as well as the stat about Nov 2000, and even Nov 2007 (Iirc) should tells us that.  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS shows a nice break in the ridge come the end of the month. It's okay to show disappointment in the weather, but let's wait till the actual start of Winter to call it a torch.

 

Even in NMI snow-belts, there are examples of winter taking it's sweet ol time showing up. I remember it was the 2nd or 3rd week of Dec '93 and we'd had warm sunny days and virtually no snow anywhere. About a week later on the 22nd or 23rd we finally got our first widespread LES squalls to make it look and feel like Christmas. The next 2 months proceeded to pound us with the coldest temps and tons of LES on LES. That's the latest start relative to typical climo that I can remember. And I mean, where a good to great winter happened, not these lame Super Nino duds where legit winter is on hiatus. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Even in NMI snow-belts, there are examples of winter taking it's sweet ol time showing up. I remember it was the 2nd or 3rd week of Dec '93 and we'd had warm sunny days and virtually no snow anywhere. About a week later on the 22nd or 23rd we finally got our first widespread LES squalls to make it look and feel like Christmas. The next 2 months proceeded to pound us with the coldest temps and tons of LES on LES. That's the latest start relative to typical climo that I can remember. And I mean, where a good to great winter happened, not these lame Super Nino duds where legit winter is on hiatus.

In 2006-2007, our first measurable snow came on December 31. That is the latest on record. That turned out to be one of the best years we've had recently, THAT was storm after storm.

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Look i dont mean to hurt anyones feelings here, I apologize to you Tom. Its been a rough 10 years since our last best snow in 2009 and its just getting really irritating to see whats happening all the time. But to say i only post for likes is a load of crap lol. I have ran my page for 10+ years and i have a loyal member base so if they want to share they share.

 

Craig, you didn't read my post then, I didn't say anything about your fan base, I said you are the first to post D-10+ maps. Its your page I don't care what you do, but if you want to call someone out, you are a great candidate to start with.  You have already done it on November 1st for a storm that showed up on 1 model run 11 days out.  Facts are facts, I'm not holding it against you.

 

Our seasonal average out of Eppley is only 26.4",  2009 winters are not going to come around often, that was a gift from god.  Expecting a 2009-2010 winter regularly is going to drive you nuts, it may not ever happen again. 

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Expecting a 2009-2010 winter regularly is going to drive you nuts, it may not ever happen again.

Okay let's keep this fair. Most of us are not asking for a 2009-10. We are asking for an above average snowfall Winter. You know,like we haven't had since 2010-11?

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Craig, you didn't read my post then, I didn't say anything about your fan base, I said you are the first to post D-10+ maps. Its your page I don't care what you do, but if you want to call someone out, you are a great candidate to start with.  You have already done it on November 1st for a storm that showed up on 1 model run 11 days out.  Facts are facts, I'm not holding it against you.

 

Our seasonal average out of Eppley is only 26.4",  2009 winters are not going to come around often, that was a gift from god.  Expecting a 2009-2010 winter regularly is going to drive you nuts, it may not ever happen again. 

 

They are not as rare as you make them seem.  Look back at previous decades, especially early 70's through early 80's.  There were many great winters with above average snowfall.  Many reached 40 or more.  We've only had 1 in the last 10 years, so it's natural we would get a little on edge.  Personally I look back at photos and hear stories from the 70's and all I can do is shake my head.  I'm seriously jealous of the run they had in those days.  Being a snow fan in Nebraska right now is not a good feeling.  Maybe things will turn around and the 2020's will be a great decade.  This one sure hasn't.

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I'm sure the Nebraskan's will feel much better when Mike Riley gets fired on Saturday and Scott Frost gets hired.  Then they won't care about the snow anymore. :)  I just hope my Hawkeyes can give Riley one last kick in the balls before he's gone.  

I'm going to the game. Going to proudly wear my red gear (probably just a t-shirt!) Will be great to witness the end of the Mike Riley era. We have not had a 4-win season since before Devaney was our HC.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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But I agree, 2009/2010 was a special year.  They can happen.  Personally I would just like a front loaded winter for once where we actually have snow on the ground for Christmas and New Years.  I've been sick of this brown grass through January crap.

I agree with ya 100%. I want it just as bad as the next guy, just trying to remain realistic to not get disappointed for the 100th time over recent years.

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Look i dont mean to hurt anyones feelings here, I apologize to you Tom. Its been a rough 10 years since our last best snow in 2009 and its just getting really irritating to see whats happening all the time. But to say i only post for likes is a load of crap lol. I have ran my page for 10+ years and i have a loyal member base so if they want to share they share.

 

I'd like to say that Clint and I single-handedly carried your site for you amidst your absence btw :P something you never gave us credit for. We had your snowday chat to 200+ people at one point.

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Look i dont mean to hurt anyones feelings here, I apologize to you Tom. Its been a rough 10 years since our last best snow in 2009 and its just getting really irritating to see whats happening all the time. But to say i only post for likes is a load of crap lol. I have ran my page for 10+ years and i have a loyal member base so if they want to share they share.

My ex who has absolutely no interest in weather used to like your Facebook page. I laughed so hard when I saw that. She doesn't anymore.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I've said this before, but it seems like we(Nebraskans) keep wanting to "compare and compete" with our neighbors to the north and east of us, when of course in a normal winter we're not going to be that close to them. Of course, as has been stated we haven't had a really good winter since 2009-10, so I know that's all we're wanting. Although even in that winter, basically all the snow fell from beginning of December to beginning of January.

 

As far as winter forecasts go, I try to never personally call someone out on their forecast as the people here who make a forecast are generally very good at why they think the way they do and show their proof in the models. Tom always does a very good job of that. He never just says, I think this or that, without showing why. At the end of the day, of course there is some interpretation of the models by the person, but if the models are showing something and then it doesn't happen, I find it hard to blame the person that made the forecast :)

The models for this month appeared to show a very active and cold pattern for most of the forum here. It's been cold, but not that active unless you were in ND over to the UP of Michigan. That's why I was expecting more of an actual fast start to this winter vs just the 2 degrees below average in temps we've had so far. Technically winter doesn't start until December, but again the models and the discussion here at times definitely looked like this month would have been the fast start to winter that included snowfall too for more of the forum.

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I've said this before, but it seems like we(Nebraskans) keep wanting to "compare and compete" with our neighbors to the north and east of us, when of course in a normal winter we're not going to be that close to them. Of course, as has been stated we haven't had a really good winter since 2009-10, so I know that's all we're wanting. Although even in that winter, basically all the snow fell from beginning of December to beginning of January.

 

As far as winter forecasts go, I try to never personally call someone out on their forecast as the people here who make a forecast are generally very good at why they think the way they do and show their proof in the models. Tom always does a very good job of that. He never just says, I think this or that, without showing why. At the end of the day, of course there is some interpretation of the models by the person, but if the models are showing something and then it doesn't happen, I find it hard to blame the person that made the forecast :)

The models for this month appeared to show a very active and cold pattern for most of the forum here. It's been cold, but not that active unless you were in ND over to the UP of Michigan. That's why I was expecting more of an actual fast start to this winter vs just the 2 degrees below average in temps we've had so far. Technically winter doesn't start until December, but again the models and the discussion here at times definitely looked like this month would have been the fast start to winter that included snowfall too for more of the forum.

I'll be honest, I'd be lying to you if I hadn't thought that Chicago would have seen an accumulating snow by now.  Boy, were we close, but no cigar. B)   Last weekend, we had the storm track but lacked the cold.  I'm not saying that it hasn't been a fast start over here, but I would have liked to seen a decent snow event here.  The mood flakes last weekend and the LES event certainly did the trick though.  It's actually very rare for Chicago to score a LES event so early in the season (11/10).

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I'm going to the game. Going to proudly wear my red gear (probably just a t-shirt!) Will be great to witness the end of the Mike Riley era. We have not had a 4-win season since before Devaney was our HC.

 

The weather is going to be awesome.  Hopefully that helps jump start Iowa's offense which is stuck in neutral right now.  

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Meteorologically speaking what is causing this huge persistent ridge out west?  And what will it take for this to finally go away.  We aren't going to get any snowstorms in the midwest with that thing in the way.  

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112012/144/500h.conus.png

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Meteorologically speaking what is causing this huge persistent ridge out west?  And what will it take for this to finally go away.  We aren't going to get any snowstorms in the midwest with that thing in the way.  

It is literally the most annoying thing on the planet.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Meteorologically [/size]speaking what is causing this huge persistent ridge out west? And what will it take for this to finally go away. We aren't going to get any snowstorms in the midwest with that thing in the way.

 

 

I thought Ninas favored a storm track that came in over Oregon. I know that doesn't explain the ridges strength entirely, but may have at least something to do with it, given its forcing a storm track that should be expected in a Nina AFAIK.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I'd love to be in Lincoln on Friday. Temps well into the 70s. It's gonna be a beautiful day for a college football game. Too bad the teams on the field aren't going to be any good (Iowa vs. Nebraska). Should be in the low 60s here in my back yard. That is going to feel great. Perfect time to get all the Christmas lights out.

Nebraska will rise back next year when Scott Frost returns.

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