November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Per the BSR (R stands for Rule btw, no need to add "rule" after), this was highlighted by you a few days back. I think it's totally plausible for that to be maybe an early vs of the Thanksgiving '04 storm. A fully traditional winter storm but dropping maybe 4-6, perhaps 8" jackpot totals. Nothing huge mid-winter but certainly huge for middle 10 days of Nov, especially over our way moreso than the cold prone Plains. 

 

Speaking of wintery look - wow at how much areal coverage returns of snow on this 1-Nov radar - Hello winter! 

 

20171101 0830 CONUS radar grab.gif

I know, but I just do it out of habit and have been for all the years I've been known about it.  Speaking of winter, if the Euro Op/Control are right, it's going to feel like mid December for a lot of Week 2!  I mean, it won't take much for all the cold sitting in Canada to sneak its way south by a system coming out of the Rockies.  I like the look of the pattern over the next couple weeks.  Pattern looks very active as the excitement builds for our first true snowstorm.

[Tom]

You have to wonder, if this will be a common theme as it has been this Autumn for the models to trend colder.  Check out the difference in the 00z EPS from 3 days ago (Day 13), compared to last night's 00z run (Day 10).

 

3 Days ago...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102900/noram/eps_t2m_anom_noram_312.png

 

 

Last night's run....Day 10...you can see the model want to correct towards the analogs and SW ridge...

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110100/noram/eps_t2m_anom_noram_240.png

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold currently w readings in the 30s.

[OKwx2k4]

Got a feeling the models will trend more bullish with cold over the next two days or so.

[westMJim]

Welcome to November 2017! Here at my house it starting out cloudy (that is normal for here) with temperatures in the upper 30's (37° at this time) While the leaves had started dropping early this fall at this time here in the Grand Rapids metro area we still have most trees with leaves still on them. I will be taking a trip up Michigan's thumb this weekend will report if more leaves are off in the Bay City area. 

Here is the October wrap for Grand Rapids, MI the average high/low for the month was 64.2°/45.9°. The highest was 82° on the 2^nd and 3^rd The coldest for the month was 28° on the 26^th The mean for the month was 55.2° and this was the warmest October at GRR since 2007.  With 9.69” of precipitation it was the wettest October in Grand Rapids recorded history and the 5^th all-time wettest month at Grand Rapids.  There was 0.4” of snow fall all falling on the 31^st but that was -0.1” below average.

[St Paul Storm]

Huge changes in the models this morning. Looks like MSP going to miss most of the snow. Should fall well north and east of here. You win some, you lose most.

[Minny_Weather]

Still a few patches on the grass this morning. I suspect those will be gone in the next hour.

[Tom]

Yo-yo pattern this week in Chi...possible thunderstorms on Sun?

 

[jaster220]

 

 

Last night's run....Day 10...you can see the model want to correct towards the analogs and SW ridge...

 

There's your winter pattern, right there buddy! Nice to see proof to the truly LR modelling, eh? It's come a long way. 

[jaster220]

Huge changes in the models this morning. Looks like MSP going to miss most of the snow. Should fall well north and east of here. You win some, you lose most.

 

Radar shows you getting the gap treatment. Snow south and north, nasso much for yby 

[Minny_Weather]

Both Euro and GFS are fizzling out that BSR storm as it comes ashore.

[Niko]

I have noticed that my temps for next week have been trending colder and colder. Great sign!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Models are beginning too develop a system for the middle of next week for the plains. Strength and amount of cold air varies but looks like something to watch at least!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL. The classic in between for Omaha. 

 

At least its something to watch;

 

[james1976]

Hopefully its the start of a trend! GEM and GFS are showing it.

[Niko]

I have a chance of T'stms on Sunday w highs in the 60s, maybe better.

[james1976]

Lt snow and wind right now!

[Money]

Soundings look pretty good for svr weather on Sunday in N IL and S WI

[hlcater]

Soundings look pretty good for svr weather on Sunday in N IL and S WI

The projected EML seems powerful, which is both good and bad. The bad being complete convective inhibition for anything surface-based. Good being is that it could keep things more discrete. Some people who are pretty good with this stuff seem fairly on board, so I assume they expect the EML to not be that much of an issue, and able to be broken.

[Minny_Weather]

Models are beginning too develop a system for the middle of next week for the plains. Strength and amount of cold air varies but looks like something to watch at least!

Trends lately have been for models to underperform on everything, temps and precip. I am watching this closely.

[james1976]

Trends lately have been for models to underperform on everything, temps and precip. I am watching this closely.

Agreed. Today was supposed to be mid 40s and a small chance for lt. rain. Its been been spitting snow pellets and stuck in the upper 30s.

[Niko]

Looks like a good amount of rain coming tanite into all of Thursday. SEMI will experience a brief warm-up as well.

[St Paul Storm]

Snow finally started here. Legit fatty flakes at the moment. Temps are a tick above 32 so probably won’t stack up too much. But I’ll take it.

[Niko]

Snow finally started here. Legit fatty flakes at the moment. Temps are a tick above 32 so probably won’t stack up too much. But I’ll take it.

Enjoy!  Even if its not sticking on the ground, the joy is still there by just looking at it falling from the sky. Sun angle this time of the year is low, so it might stick, especially during the evening hours.

[gosaints]

Sticking to the grass here.  Could be the 2nd bout of measurable snow already this year...

[jaster220]

LOL. The classic in between for Omaha. 

 

At least its something to watch;

 

 

It's a long ways away, but even my local non-NWS is trending more like winter by the 10th (tho obviously from LES or some other source than that shows)

 

 

[Tom]

On my phone, but the 12z Euro is flashing big potential for the 10th/1th period. Still showing the mid week nex week system. Pattern is looking more like winter next week!

[St Paul Storm]

Sticking to the grass here.  Could be the 2nd bout of measurable snow already this year...

Sticking to the grass and car hoods here as well. Good start to the season for sure. Just don’t steal all of the snow down there again this winter.

[Stormgeek]

Radar trends snow ending here soon, but getting large flakes accumulating on the grassy areas as well just north of the Twin Cities. Kinda disappointed in how models performed, but hey, snow is snow!

[Minny_Weather]

*Sees poorly thrown together forecast by OAX showing no chance of precip next week* What on Earth are they thinking

 

*Sees who did it* Okay that explains it.

[bud2380]

If we can get this to come through at night, there may be a chance for some accumulations for a good portion of us.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017110118/150/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Based on what I'm seeing over the past few days, the models had no clue as to how much cold is showing up now next week and beyond.  For instance, the GEFS have reversed the "warmer" look it had over the last 3-4 days for the 5-day period centered around the 11th (which fits the BSR).  It had been advertising a consistent SE ridge.

See below...

 

 

4 days ago...

 

 

 

Today's 12z run...so what is the conclusion going forward???  #BelievetheBSR

 

 

[Tom]

The BSR favors and Eastern CONUS trough and we also have to take into account the change that is forecast to happen across East Asia by the 10th.

 

Current Ridge pattern replaced by trough....

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 10th...

 

[Tom]

The 12z Euro Control has been showing wicked Nov cold next week/weekend into the following week.  Some of the 51 ensemble members are agreeing with the Control run.  Its suffice to say, any storm system that tracks underneath the arctic pool of air loading up in southern Canada has a real chance to "take chunks" of cold into the lower 48.  If you look at what the GEFS are showing in the Strat, it basically wants to park a vortex feature into Canada over the next 15 days.

 

This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year.  It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent.  This pattern is beginning to look a lot like how '13/'14 evolved, except, we have a favorable flow of storm systems this season instead of a dominant NW Flow.

[jaster220]

I know we've discussed how cold Nov of '13 was, even tho widespread synoptic snows did not favor our region. Was there also a parked vortex feature that early 4 yrs ago? How long do these types of patterns usually last before breaking down, or at least shifting or going thru a Regen phase?

 

Looks to be a regular feature this winter tho, with occasional relaxing periods. A regular poster in the SMI forum just moved to ATL area for work, and he was all excited for their warmer climate. He posted that yesterday was the coldest Oct day in their history with the high stuck at 40 almost all afternoon! I told him his move may have come with the most unenviable of timing and that he better have taken his MI winter clothes with him, lol

 

I was en-route to Fla with my folks in Feb '78 and we stopped for the night in ATL at a motel. It was 12F with a nasty north wind that evening. The gal at the front office desk was shivering. I told her I was from the great white North, aka Michigan and was used to it. At that young age I had no idea that was unusual for them peeps.

[Tom]

I know we've discussed how cold Nov of '13 was, even tho widespread synoptic snows did not favor our region. Was there also a parked vortex feature that early 4 yrs ago? How long do these types of patterns usually last before breaking down, or at least shifting or going thru a Regen phase?

 

Looks to be a regular feature this winter tho, with occasional relaxing periods. A regular poster in the SMI forum just moved to ATL area for work, and he was all excited for their warmer climate. He posted that yesterday was the coldest Oct day in their history with the high stuck at 40 almost all afternoon! I told him his move may have come with the most unenviable of timing and that he better have taken his MI winter clothes with him, lol

 

I was en-route to Fla with my folks in Feb '78 and we stopped for the night in ATL at a motel. It was 12F with a nasty north wind that evening. The gal at the front office desk was shivering. I told her I was from the great white North, aka Michigan and was used to it. At that young age I had no idea that was unusual for them peeps.

This vortex type feature has been persistent across the Archipelago region since the start of the new LRC (Oct 3rd-7th).  It has repeatedly spun in this general region, as well as, over the Hudson Bay area, suggesting, a repetitive pattern throughout the cold season.  IMO, this pattern looks to be locked over Canada for our winter season.  The vortex re-developed again Oct 10th-17th, as it has today and will continue into the foreseeable future.  It's going to be hard to break a pattern locked as such.  I don't see anything that will suggest replacing a ridge in N Canada.  Well, at least for now I don't.  Things can change, but I'm highly suspect of it doing so.

[jaster220]

Tom said..

 

"This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year. It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent"

 

But..but..but..TWC said..

 

 

[Tom]

Tom said..

 

"This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year. It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent"

 

But..but..but..TWC said..

 

wsi_nov_0922.jpg

Actually, they updated their forecast...it looks a lot colder than that now...

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/november-2017-temperature-forecast-the-weather-company

[Minny_Weather]

THE ASTROS WIN!!!

[OKwx2k4]

LOL. The classic in between for Omaha.

 

At least its something to watch;

 

That's an i-40 special in the heart of winter. I like it.