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November 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#151
bud2380

Posted 01 November 2017 - 02:15 PM

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If we can get this to come through at night, there may be a chance for some accumulations for a good portion of us.

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


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#152
Tom

Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:59 PM

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Based on what I'm seeing over the past few days, the models had no clue as to how much cold is showing up now next week and beyond.  For instance, the GEFS have reversed the "warmer" look it had over the last 3-4 days for the 5-day period centered around the 11th (which fits the BSR).  It had been advertising a consistent SE ridge.

See below...

 

 

4 days ago...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_12.png

 

 

Today's 12z run...so what is the conclusion going forward???  #BelievetheBSR

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_8.png

 


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#153
Tom

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:03 PM

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The BSR favors and Eastern CONUS trough and we also have to take into account the change that is forecast to happen across East Asia by the 10th.

 

Current Ridge pattern replaced by trough....

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_3.png

 

 

 

 

Nov 10th...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_39.png



#154
Tom

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:12 PM

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The 12z Euro Control has been showing wicked Nov cold next week/weekend into the following week.  Some of the 51 ensemble members are agreeing with the Control run.  Its suffice to say, any storm system that tracks underneath the arctic pool of air loading up in southern Canada has a real chance to "take chunks" of cold into the lower 48.  If you look at what the GEFS are showing in the Strat, it basically wants to park a vortex feature into Canada over the next 15 days.

 

This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year.  It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent.  This pattern is beginning to look a lot like how '13/'14 evolved, except, we have a favorable flow of storm systems this season instead of a dominant NW Flow.


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#155
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:56 PM

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I know we've discussed how cold Nov of '13 was, even tho widespread synoptic snows did not favor our region. Was there also a parked vortex feature that early 4 yrs ago? How long do these types of patterns usually last before breaking down, or at least shifting or going thru a Regen phase?

Looks to be a regular feature this winter tho, with occasional relaxing periods. A regular poster in the SMI forum just moved to ATL area for work, and he was all excited for their warmer climate. He posted that yesterday was the coldest Oct day in their history with the high stuck at 40 almost all afternoon! I told him his move may have come with the most unenviable of timing and that he better have taken his MI winter clothes with him, lol

I was en-route to Fla with my folks in Feb '78 and we stopped for the night in ATL at a motel. It was 12F with a nasty north wind that evening. The gal at the front office desk was shivering. I told her I was from the great white North, aka Michigan and was used to it. At that young age I had no idea that was unusual for them peeps.
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#156
Tom

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:17 PM

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I know we've discussed how cold Nov of '13 was, even tho widespread synoptic snows did not favor our region. Was there also a parked vortex feature that early 4 yrs ago? How long do these types of patterns usually last before breaking down, or at least shifting or going thru a Regen phase?

Looks to be a regular feature this winter tho, with occasional relaxing periods. A regular poster in the SMI forum just moved to ATL area for work, and he was all excited for their warmer climate. He posted that yesterday was the coldest Oct day in their history with the high stuck at 40 almost all afternoon! I told him his move may have come with the most unenviable of timing and that he better have taken his MI winter clothes with him, lol

I was en-route to Fla with my folks in Feb '78 and we stopped for the night in ATL at a motel. It was 12F with a nasty north wind that evening. The gal at the front office desk was shivering. I told her I was from the great white North, aka Michigan and was used to it. At that young age I had no idea that was unusual for them peeps.

This vortex type feature has been persistent across the Archipelago region since the start of the new LRC (Oct 3rd-7th).  It has repeatedly spun in this general region, as well as, over the Hudson Bay area, suggesting, a repetitive pattern throughout the cold season.  IMO, this pattern looks to be locked over Canada for our winter season.  The vortex re-developed again Oct 10th-17th, as it has today and will continue into the foreseeable future.  It's going to be hard to break a pattern locked as such.  I don't see anything that will suggest replacing a ridge in N Canada.  Well, at least for now I don't.  Things can change, but I'm highly suspect of it doing so.


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#157
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:21 PM

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Tom said..

"This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year. It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent"

But..but..but..TWC said..


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#158
Tom

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:27 PM

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Tom said..

"This map below is basically a signal that would continue to flood N.A. with brutal cold for the time of year. It's no wonder the coldest anomalies relative to average across the entire Northern Hemisphere will be over our continent"

But..but..but..TWC said..

attachicon.gifwsi_nov_0922.jpg

Actually, they updated their forecast...it looks a lot colder than that now...

 

https://weather.com/...weather-company


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#159
TOL_Weather

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:11 PM

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THE ASTROS WIN!!!


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#160
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:20 PM

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LOL. The classic in between for Omaha.

At least its something to watch;

gem_asnow_us_34.png


That's an i-40 special in the heart of winter. I like it.
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#161
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 02:57 AM

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THE ASTROS WIN!!!

Congrats!  Houston wanted it more than the Dodgers.  I'm glad that city can celebrate their first championship in team history.   That team is going to be great for a long time...just like the Cub's.   ;)


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#162
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:32 AM

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00z Euro is showing a more organized and colder system for next week laying down some appreciable November snows across the OMA dome!  Classic I-80 snowstorm in the works??  This thing has potential.

 

 

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_180.png


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#163
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:51 AM

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Woah, to say the models are having a difficult time predicting the pattern Week 2 and beyond is an under statement.  Remember how cold the JMA weeklies were for a couple weeks in a row for this month?  Last nights run is bringing in a second half Nov torch!  That's just proof that nothing can be trusted in the Week 2+ range until we know the LRC is set up.  I will, however, argue that a SER signal does develop in the Week 2 range due to the blossoming Bearing Sea Ridge Day 7+....

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_29.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_37.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the 500mb maps for the next 4 weeks off the JMA...

 

DNnh3XrUEAIcG8N.jpg

 

 

 

850's....

 

 

DNnjbt0VQAEchMF.jpg



#164
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:15 AM

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There are several factors that may counter, or rather, suppress the SER in the longer range.  I saw this happen before in '13/'14 when the driving factors in the PAC countered any other warm signals.  To say there will be a nasty temp gradient in the coming weeks is an understatement.  We have modeling support that the EPO/WPO stay for the most part negative this month and I'm seeing both GEFS/EPS showing a near neutral AO/NAO in the longer range.  I will put more support on the idea that the EPO/WPO provide enough staying power and allow the cold building up in Canada to try and "push" or "fight" the ridge.  This is part of the reason why I knew this month would be an exciting period trying to figure out how this pattern actually evolves and where the atmospheric fireworks line up.

 

Needless to say, it will be an interesting number of days to see what the models show once we get into the following week.  The long range tools that have been doing a great job for me in East Asia do support somewhat of a re-alignment of the trough/ridge pattern across N.A. Week 2+.  I still need a few more days to see what happens before putting a finger on it.


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#165
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:32 AM

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6z GFS weaker and south with the system next week.

#166
Niko

Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:48 AM

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Dismal and rainy out there, but, milder temps. Holding @ 48F.



#167
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 04:54 AM

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00z Euro control very similar to the Euro Op for the potential snow system across the central Plains/Midwest mid next week...

 

Shades of Nov '13 in the NE PAC...hard not to discount the driving factor of the warm blob...

 

 

 

glbSSTMonInd1.gif

 

 

 

Nov 28th, 2013...

 

anomnight.11.28.2013.gif



#168
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:07 AM

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Looks like a west-east type system if it transpires.
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#169
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:15 AM

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Looks like a west-east type system if it transpires.

Indeed, the "Dakotas Block" (which I decided to nick name), might in fact be a common theme this cold season as I've seen it show up several times already back in October.  We haven't seen this type of pattern for a few years.  


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#170
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:32 AM

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I'll believe anything I see regarding the storm system next week once I see more runs. It looks intriguing, but we all know how models love to be screwy. The pattern for this LRC so far is models underperform and nature overperforms, but I obviously need to see more of a trend first.

 

Amounts for my balcony: 2" (GFS)-7" (Euro).


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#171
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:36 AM

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I'll believe anything I see regarding the storm system next week once I see more runs. It looks intriguing, but we all know how models love to be screwy. The pattern for this LRC so far is models underperform and nature overperforms, but I obviously need to see more of a trend first.

 

Amounts for my balcony: 2" (GFS)-7" (Euro).

Once we are close to about 5 days, the Euro does a pretty darn good job.  I think the GFS is shearing out this energy to much while both the Euro Op/Control and even the GGEM have a better organized system.  Nonetheless, I like the overall trends of late and it would fit the developing LRC pattern across our subforum where storm systems are better organized and tend to intensify once they enter the "slot".


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#172
Niko

Posted 02 November 2017 - 05:49 AM

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Substantially colder next week w highs at some point not going above 40 or so and lows in the 20s.


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#173
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 06:05 AM

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Once we are close to about 5 days, the Euro does a pretty darn good job.  I think the GFS is shearing out this energy to much while both the Euro Op/Control and even the GGEM have a better organized system.  Nonetheless, I like the overall trends of late and it would fit the developing LRC pattern across our subforum where storm systems are better organized and tend to intensify once they enter the "slot".

GEM has been sneakily good this season. RGEM was also the only model to even come close to verifying with the snowfall on Tuesday.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#174
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 06:18 AM

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Just saw the Canadian weeklies and they are not buying into a EC ridge during Thanksgiving week.  This model nailed the following week's colder look which the GEFS/EPS were not buying into until recently.  The Canadian usually "sees" the cold better in the Week 2+ range.  What is intriguing down the road, check out the trough placement NW of Hawaii and south of the Aleutians.  If this signature can grow heading into December, it would imply a bigger eastern CONUS trough.



#175
bud2380

Posted 02 November 2017 - 06:44 AM

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More snow for areas north of the Twin Cities.  Good start to the year up there.

 

 

Tab2FileL.png


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#176
gabel23

Posted 02 November 2017 - 07:03 AM

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More snow for areas north of the Twin Cities.  Good start to the year up there.

 

 

Tab2FileL.png

 

Speaking of that, I found this article about the halloween blizzard for that area back in 1991. I remember halloween that year was cancelled for us and it was cold and snowy!! 



#177
bud2380

Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:06 AM

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12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.  



#178
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:23 AM

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12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.


It's showing something. It's just way South and warm. We'll see, GFS has been fairly warm biased this whole season. Regarding storm track, well, we'll see.

 

Now, GEM on the other hand..


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#179
Niko

Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:42 AM

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Rainy and mild currently. Temp @ 50F. Feels balmy out there.



#180
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:44 AM

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GEM has been sneakily good this season. RGEM was also the only model to even come close to verifying with the snowfall on Tuesday.

 


 

12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.  

 

Tom posted that with the GFS's major bias to be too progressive, it shears the energy out. Until it comes within range where it drops that idea, it can't join the storm party. A bunch of my storms would've been a whiff too per the GFS's bias. Even the gov agencies leaning too much on that model busted, like the CPC for example, as well as my local NWS. They finally ditched the GFS and went with the EC and the GGEM at the last minute. Be wary with the GooFuS!



#181
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:51 AM

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Rainy and mild currently. Temp @ 50F. Feels balmy out there.

 

Heck, this morning's 42º (and calm) felt balmy. Car thermo even dropped to 41 for a bit. Great sign that the warm front stayed well south of MI. Had we been in winter, the .52" of rain last night would've most likely been snow. As it was, surface temps were in the 30's during the rainfall on an east wind. Great stuff  :)

 

Battle Creek's temps were well below normal yesterday. Normal high is about 55F per this NWS graphic. Even the low 50's currently are about normal. This weekend ofc, we'll spike above and risk some severe wx, just like Nov of 2013

 

 


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#182
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:12 AM

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The latest GFS and CMC no longer have snow anymore and as Tom would say...the storm and the northern stream don't "marry" each other. Knew last night I shouldn't have gotten so excited so fast after seeing the 0z euro. 


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#183
Niko

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:15 AM

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Heck, this morning's 42º (and calm) felt balmy. Car thermo even dropped to 41 for a bit. Great sign that the warm front stayed well south of MI. Had we been in winter, the .52" of rain last night would've most likely been snow. As it was, surface temps were in the 30's during the rainfall on an east wind. Great stuff  :)

 

Battle Creek's temps were well below normal yesterday. Normal high is about 55F per this NWS graphic. Even the low 50's currently are about normal. This weekend ofc, we'll spike above and risk some severe wx, just like Nov of 2013

 

attachicon.gif20171102 KBTL Nov 1st temps.png

 

attachicon.gif20171102_CPC_hazards_d3_7.jpg

Indeed, that would have been a 6"+ snowfall for our region.

 

Btw: I remember Nov, 2013 being mild and wet at the beginning of the month and getting sharply colder end of the month into early Dec. Ofc, all hell broke loose after that.


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#184
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:26 AM

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The latest GFS and CMC no longer have snow anymore and as Tom would say...the storm and the northern stream don't "marry" each other. Knew last night I shouldn't have gotten so excited so fast after seeing the 0z euro. 

Yeah I knew after seeing both GEFS and EPS that we shouldn't get our hopes up.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#185
Jaycee

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:46 AM

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Dang it, why is it dying out now? I’ve been in Canada all week and can’t look for myself.

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#186
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:49 AM

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Dang it, why is it dying out now? I’ve been in Canada all week and can’t look for myself.

You actually expect Lincoln to get snow?  :lol:

 

There is still hope. Last GFS run still has a big system, it's just all rain in KS. If it trends Northward, we will be below freezing.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#187
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 09:50 AM

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GFS back with a wound up storm around the 13th. Too far out but maybe the BSR is showing itself.

#188
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:07 AM

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Over the last 4 runs, GEFS have been trending with a -AO/-NAO tandem around the 11th/12th. Nice to see some blocking possibly coming back into the picture.
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#189
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Did the Euro lose the mid-next week system as well?

#190
Tom

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:30 AM

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12z Euro lost the storm...GFS FTW???



#191
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:34 AM

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12z Euro lost the storm...GFS FTW???

And the extended dry streak continues! Enjoy your bountiful rain Tom!


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#192
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:34 AM

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Yup, the models were cuckoo for cocoa puffs last night.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (~3"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 1.2"            Coldest Low: 

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#193
Niko

Posted 02 November 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Very mild conditions outside w temps continuing to climb. (@54F now)

 

Looking from my homeoffice window now, rain continues to fall...geez, non-stop. If only this was deeper into the colder season. As Jaster posted earlier, great times ahead! ;)



#194
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 November 2017 - 11:12 AM

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This dry cold weather is getting on my nerves. Id rather be in the Ohio Valley getting rain and thunderstorms honestly. But during last years new LRC pattern in October we were at above average moisture and look at how that winter turned out. who really knows now days.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#195
GDR

Posted 02 November 2017 - 11:48 AM

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You watch tonight's runs will show something and the mood in here will change fast!
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#196
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:05 PM

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00z Euro is showing a more organized and colder system for next week laying down some appreciable November snows across the OMA dome!  Classic I-80 snowstorm in the works??  This thing has potential.

 

 

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_180.png

 

Well, it was looking robust for so early in the cold season.  ;)



#197
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2017 - 12:06 PM

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Yup, the models were cuckoo for cocoa puffs last night.

 

:lol:

 

You watch tonight's runs will show something and the mood in here will change fast!

 

;)



#198
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:07 PM

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18z GFS snoozefest. Im definitely excited to get this season kicked off. Models need to make it happen! Lol

#199
Jaycee

Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:10 PM

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You actually expect Lincoln to get snow? :lol:

There is still hope. Last GFS run still has a big system, it's just all rain in KS. If it trends Northward, we will be below freezing.



Lol oh gosh no! I just want the models to keep me interested until they’re like “oh shoot, we’re still showing precip in Nebraska?!? Heh, uhh no thanks. Guess we’ll settle for Iowa again”, swear to g, It’s almost better having some hope than not having any at all.
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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#200
james1976

Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:13 PM

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Lol oh gosh no! I just want the models to keep me interested until they’re like “oh shoot, we’re still showing precip in Nebraska?!? Heh, uhh no thanks. Guess we’ll settle for Iowa again”, swear to g, It’s almost better having some hope than not having any at all.

You're off to a better start than me! Lol