Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 I agree. The idea that -NAO = cold east and -PNA = cold west is really nothing more than wx-weenie mythology. In reality they're very much interlinked, and generally speaking, are expressive of large scale tropical/subtropical dynamics across the entire Western Hemisphere. At the same time, the relationship for the PNW and the NAO is pretty disjointed. Some of the coldest months for the PNW/West over the past 60+ years, and the NAO during those months. Jan 1950: +.92Dec 1951: +1.32Nov 1955: -1.29Feb 1956: -1.12Jan 1957: +1.05Jan 1963: -2.12Jan 1969: -.83Jan 1972: +.27Dec 1972: +.19Jan 1979: -1.38Jan 1980: -.75Dec 1983: +.29Nov 1985: -.67Feb 1989: +2.00Dec 1990: +.22Jan 1993: +1.60Jan 1996: -.12Dec 2008: -.28Dec 2009: -1.93Feb 2011: +.70Dec 2013: +.95Jan 2017: +.48 +NAO months: 12-NAO months: 10 So again, while I'm totally down with the concept that a -NAO is often present during very blocky patterns, which tend to be good for cold across the CONUS, I think the evidence indicates it's just not a super important factor for much of the West in getting cold. And some of the coldest western patterns featured -PNA/+NAO. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Well... my wife ordered a snowblower on sale on Black Friday. Should be here in a couple weeks. Sorry guys. Just ruined winter. I tried to warn her... I think she did it on purpose. It will probably get used as much as my generator since I have gotten it a year ago...zero!! We all need to burn our snowblowers, show shovels, sleds, anything snow related. It might the only way we ever see snow again. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Let’s take it one step further and burn our homes down and live in the wilderness. I am sure we will get hammered then!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 It will probably get used as much as my generator since I have gotten it a year ago...zero!! We all need to burn our snowblowers, show shovels, sleds, anything snow related. It might the only way we ever see snow again.Many sacrifices are required to appease the snow gods. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Let’s take it one step further and burn our homes down and live in the wilderness. I am sure we will get hammered then!! Just do what Kayla did. Move east of the Rockies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 At the same time, the relationship for the PNW and the NAO is pretty disjointed. Some of the coldest months for the PNW/West over the past 60+ years, and the NAO during those months. Jan 1950: +.92Dec 1951: +1.32Nov 1955: -1.29Feb 1956: -1.12Jan 1957: +1.05Jan 1963: -2.12Jan 1969: -.83Jan 1972: +.27Dec 1972: +.19Jan 1979: -1.38Jan 1980: -.75Dec 1983: +.29Nov 1985: -.67Feb 1989: +2.00Dec 1990: +.22Jan 1993: +1.60Jan 1996: -.12Dec 2008: -.28Dec 2009: -1.93Feb 2011: +.70Dec 2013: +.95Jan 2017: +.48 +NAO months: 12-NAO months: 10 So again, while I'm totally down with the concept that a -NAO is often present during very blocky patterns, which tend to be good for cold across the CONUS, I think the evidence indicates it's just not a super important factor for much of the West in getting cold. And some of the coldest western patterns featured -PNA/+NAO.Correct, the -NAO is not a factor in the *immediate* term, when it comes to western US Arctic outbreaks/etc, however it's definitely a reflection of a low frequency wavetrain that directly supports the -PNA and increases the likelihood of Arctic outbreaks west of the Rockies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The GFS is slowly trending toward developing a bridge between the GOA block and NAO block in the crucial 4 to 6 day period. Any amplification or slowing down of the progression of the block could make a huge difference for us.Cautiously optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Just do what Kayla did. Move east of the Rockies. Truth. One of the best decisions of my life. Highly recommended for anyone who is obsessed (all of us! ) with the weather and cold/snow. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 That would work and I wants to. Redmond did the trick too. Not as much as say Spokane but 345% better than Portland when I lived there.You could visit Microsoft every day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Truth. One of the best decisions of my life. Highly recommended for anyone who is obsessed (all of us! ) with the weather and cold/snow.I did. I moved to Leavenworth. Even in a bad year we still get 40-50 inches of snow, and a good year can be over 120 inches. And we always have great scenery. You have to love the area when it's not winter too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 You could visit Microsoft every day! Wrong Redmond. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Almost, Jim ! (referring to 00z GFS so far) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Wrong Redmond.Too bad. It's only 2.5 hours away from my house driving distance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 00z GFS Day 5, 7 Definitely a chilly trough http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112600/120/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112600/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Almost, Jim ! (referring to 00z GFS so far)very close! Nice fun... I mean run!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Has anyone NOT put up their Christmas lights yet? The only way to ensure God/Santa delivers snow this winter is if everyone is done by tomorrow. I don't have any outdoor lights, but I kept my Christmas tree up all year. Everyone thought I was a dumb*** over the summer, but it's gonna pay off soon 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Fog, inversions and east winds ahead.... Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 00z ECMWF in 58 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Fog, inversions and east winds ahead.... Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 00z ECMWF in 58 minutes! I would love some dry east wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I would love some dry east wind. What about the drought recover? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I would love some dry east wind. There could be a lot of it coming after day 8-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 There could be a lot of it coming after day 8-10. Can't wait. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The 00Z is not good for your health after the first few days of December if you want cold temps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The 00Z is not good for your health after the first few days of December if you want cold temps.Nah, but hey at day 15-16 some signals of retrogression appear. Lol ! 00z ECMWF began 2 minutes ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owner of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night. They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 00z ECMWFDay 3 and look at that Greenland block!!!! Insane. This is awful. Do I really need to post days 5, 7, 8, 9, 10?? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The 00Z is not good for your health after the first few days of December if you want cold temps.Might be a modestly chilly pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owners of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night. They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought. They’re adverting Port Townsend. That’s where my Dad is living now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 They’re adverting Port Townsend. That’s where my Dad is living now! I was going to mention that too. Although I doubt its coated in snow right now as the picture shows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owner of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night. They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought. Came down mostly to the major rapid snowmelt up there. Big early season snowpack followed by record warmth. The rains weren't really all that impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 I was going to mention that too. Although I doubt its coated in snow right now as the picture shows. He had sticking snow a few week ago I guess. When Bellingham did. But yeah that area isn’t really known for its snow. The Olympic rain shadow seems to be noticeable. Most days I’ve talked to him that it’s been wet here it’s been dry or even partly cloudy there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Andy in Woodinville has a drone now... he posted a video of the flooding along the Snoqulamie River today. Looks like the trees are really suffering now from the drought. Many of them are completely bare. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Pretty notable retrogression signal on the 0z ensemble the second half of week two. This trend first showed on the 18z, but it's stronger on this run. Who knows! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Agung pics are spreading on social media. Ash column approaching 30,000ft. Maybe higher (need to wait for the next update). http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/102852C6-E26B-4FF7-B2A5-BBD6532498ED_zps4vtmysnu.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Agung pics are spreading on social media. A major volcano when we're nearing solar minimum could trigger the cooling we've been expecting after the big Nino. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Pretty notable retrogression signal on the 0z ensemble the second half of week two. This trend first showed on the 18z, but it's stronger on this run. Who knows!That's quite sexy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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