November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Not awful. Chilly trough

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

A major volcano when we're nearing solar minimum could trigger the cooling we've been expecting after the big Nino.

Will be an interesting eruption to follow, regardless. The 1963/64 eruption started off modestly on February 19th, with viscous lava flows and ash clouds. A more explosive phase began on March 14th (IIRC), then another explosion occurs during May of 1963.

 

It's not a guarantee the ongoing eruption will emulate the 1963/64 one.

[Phil]

Paper on that eruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.researchgate.net/publication/257428344_The_1963-1964_eruption_of_Agung_volcano_Bali_Indonesia/amp

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/192/500h_anom.na.png

Cutoff bias on full display.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Not too bad. Highs in the 30s.

Definite cold pool time and fake cold.

[snow_wizard]

Not too bad. Highs in the 30s.

 

Not bad at all.  We will have chilly air in place when the inversion pattern kicks in.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad at all.  We will have chilly air in place when the inversion pattern kicks in.

Exactly. That could manifest a nice cold pool over the Columbia Basin.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm.....

[snow_wizard]

00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm.....

 

That's really interesting.  Normally that model isn't quite as sensitive to changes that far out.

[Phil]

00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm.....

Retrogression will be later than that. At earliest, maybe sometime during week 4.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Ensembles are starting to agree on a pattern we've seen many times where a decently cold air mass moves over, then a strong ridge, inversion, cold air trapped, cold pool builds over Columbia Basin, east wind for 4+ days, and MAYBE then the ridge retrogrades back towards 150-160 W and right now I have a bit of optimism that is going to occur, but not confident.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also.

All 3 model camps now showing the same signal. Hmmm....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Carrots?

[Gradient Keeper]

Carrots?

Baby Carrots.... for now. If this continues another 3-4 days we'll upgrade them to normal/standard sized.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Baby Carrots.... for now. If this continues another 3-4 days we'll upgrade them to normal/standard sized.

Then beyond that...dipped in ranch?

[Gradient Keeper]

Then beyond that...dipped in ranch?

If good agreement persists to day 4-5 we can incorporate Ranch dip into the equation as well as Moroccan Spiced Roasted Carrot Dip, Roasted Parsnip Hummus dip, Nutty Swiss Chard and Roasted Garlic dip, and Roast Beetroot and Walnut Dip

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.) 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=275164

[MikeInEverett]

06z gets pretty close..

[Gradient Keeper]

06z gets pretty close..

Yeah. Ridge is much stronger, more amplified days 5-10. I also noticed the Greenland block is decimated after day 10. If the energy moving off Siberia is held back any, or the Greenland block weakens sooner we could potentially get into a modified backdoor blast pattern.

 

[Tenochtitlan]

Another intense wind shift here tonight. The temperature rose from 49 at midnight to 63 an hour later with roaring southeasterly winds. It's weird that it snowed three weeks ago and now it's in the lower 60s in the middle of the night, with clear skies to boot.

[MossMan]

Moderate rain, breezy south wind, and 51 degrees currently.

[Guest daniel1]

The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also.

Dude give it a rest.

[Phil]

Low frequency tremor component increasing on the live Agung seismogram. Strongest it's been yet.

 

https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/

[Phil]

If Agung does enter an explosive phase (which based on its eruption history, would occur ~ one month from now), all that SO^2 ejected into the stratosphere, right above the crucial WPAC/IPWP area, could change the late-winter picture, as far as the tropical convection is concerned.

 

Agung is probably the ideal volcano to disrupt the Pacific heat budget during boreal winter. It's literally *perfectly* located.

[MossMan]

This does not look good at all.

[stuffradio]

If Agung does enter an explosive phase (which based on its eruption history, would occur ~ one month from now), all that SO^2 ejected into the stratosphere, right above the crucial WPAC/IPWP area, could change the late-winter picture, as far as the tropical convection is concerned.

 

Agung is probably the ideal volcano to disrupt the Pacific heat budget during boreal winter. It's literally *perfectly* located.

Go Agung go, just don't kill anyone this time...

[Phil]

Go Agung go, just don't kill anyone this time...

If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity.

 

Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"?

[stuffradio]

If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity.

 

Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"?

I don't know, I wasn't alive.

[TT-SEA]

If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity.

 

Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"?

 

Yes... many, many summers will be ruined.    

 

I know my unhappiness is what drives you though.  

[TT-SEA]

Mountain snow looking really sad this morning...

 

[Phil]

Yes... many, many summers will be ruined.

 

I know my unhappiness is what drive you though.

You're just fun to troll sometimes. I don't actually want you feel miserable, though (honestly, I don't). That would be kinda creepy/weird.

[Timmy]

Mountain snow looking really sad this morning...

 

At least your roses are happy!

[Phil]

Man, you guys are gonna get hammered in January. The EHEM subtropical AAM integral is going to tank in December with the deep -NAM/Eurasian torques playing on the tropics/NPAC thereafter. #retrogression

 

Verbatim, the closest structural-intraseasonal analogs for this upcoming January are February 1989, January 1996, and December 2008. The +QBO50 is still playing its hand.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mountain snow looking really sad this morning...

 

‘Tis the season for daffodils rising ... God bless everyone!!

[Timmy]

Man, you guys are gonna get hammered in January. The EHEM subtropical AAM integral is going to tank in December with the deep -NAM/Eurasian torques playing on the tropics/NPAC thereafter. #retrogression

 

Verbatim, the closest structural analogs for this upcoming January are February 1989, January 1996, and December 2008.

What can we do to you if you are wrong?

[Phil]

What can we do to you if you are wrong?

Lol. I don't want to jinx it.

 

If I do bust, though, I'm fair game for anything and everything.