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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#51
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:00 AM

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Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down.


Seems pretty consistent.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#52
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:01 AM

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Seems pretty consistent.

 

I agree. I think his post was more of a conversation starter...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#53
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:01 AM

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Not really. And our temps look like they will be more impressive here thanks to the surface lows.


Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since.

#54
Kayla

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:09 AM

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Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since.

 

Lowland snow is more likely in some areas than ever before. Post Halloween blues??


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 0"
Highest daily snowfall 0"

Highest snow depth: 0"

Coldest high: 55.0º
Coldest low: 36.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#55
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:11 AM

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Lowland snow is more likely in some areas than ever before. Post Halloween blues??


Blues? No had an awesome Halloween. Just was making a comment my perception of the models.

I don’t think there will be any lowland snow down here though. Maybe up north.

#56
Kayla

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:17 AM

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Blues? No had an awesome Halloween. Just was making a comment my perception of the models.

I don’t think there will be any lowland snow down here though. Maybe up north.

 

Just giving you a hard time. :P Glad to hear you had a great Halloween! 

 

And I agree, looking better up north.


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 0"
Highest daily snowfall 0"

Highest snow depth: 0"

Coldest high: 55.0º
Coldest low: 36.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#57
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:18 AM

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Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since.


I think the coldest few runs had us getting into the mid 520's thickness-wise. Not too far off from what's currently shown.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#58
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:25 AM

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12z ECMWF shows more snow in the Puget Sound area by Sunday evening than both the 12z yesterday and the 00z last night, although it's still only a trace or so most areas (except Whatcom).

 

I'm wondering if the model snowfall maps account for wet-bulb/dew points? Based off the surface temps shown at the time (upper 30s) and the 850s (-5c) I would think it wouldn't show any snow.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_washington_108.png



#59
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:26 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system.   

 

It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday.    And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle.  



#60
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:27 AM

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How much am I gonna get!?!?!? Lol

#61
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:28 AM

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Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles.


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#62
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:28 AM

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I think the EC will verify.  It's too early for snow yet.


Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#63
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:29 AM

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Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles.

 

Seriously...it has almost an inch in Monmouth.  Zero chance that happens.


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Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#64
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:30 AM

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I would be happy with some flakes in the air over the weekend and a nice hard freeze Sunday or Monday night.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#65
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:34 AM

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Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles.

 

Saw some massive errors with the WRF last winter!  


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#66
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:36 AM

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Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles.

 

I would have easily had over 40" last winter had they verified.



#67
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:37 AM

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Saw some massive errors with the WRF last winter!

It seems to do better up here when it’s an overrunning situation with the cold air already in place.

#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:39 AM

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12z ECMWF shows more snow in the Puget Sound area by Sunday evening than both the 12z yesterday and the 00z last night, although it's still only a trace or so most areas (except Whatcom).

I'm wondering if the model snowfall maps account for wet-bulb/dew points? Based off the surface temps shown at the time (upper 30s) and the 850s (-5c) I would think it wouldn't show any snow.

ecmwf_acc_snow_washington_108.png

Interesting. Looks decent for the Fraser outflow areas.
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#69
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:46 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system.

It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday. And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle.


Glad to hear things aren’t trending warmer. ;)

#70
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:56 AM

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That would be the most snow i have ever seen at hood canal this time of year if it's correct. 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#71
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:05 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system.   

 

It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday.    And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle.  

Looks the the ECMWF wobble is kicking in. I would not be surprised to see this shift a bit southward on future runs.



#72
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:15 AM

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That would be the most snow i have ever seen at hood canal this time of year if it's correct. 

 

We were hiking around the Lake Cushman area in early September this year and I was thinking about how frequently that area gets buried. This could be one of those times.



#73
Geos

Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:33 AM

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12z GFS shows varying amounts of snow from Everett to Olympia and up in Whatcom. Still not buying it for the greater Puget Sound I-5 corridor.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_17.png

 

Starting to think will see some flakes falling at like 34-35 deg. down to 500 ft.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 25.86", 09/16

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 42°, 09/18

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#74
Geos

Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:55 AM

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Interesting. Looks decent for the Fraser outflow areas.

 

Showing an inch here. Interesting.

 

Snow in the wording for Saturday night here now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 25.86", 09/16

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 42°, 09/18

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#75
Phil

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:03 PM

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For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point.

Edit: And near -30C in Alberta by days 6/7.
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Live Weather Stream:

#76
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:06 PM

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I feel like models are really struggling with this because it's so unusual to have this setup like this so early.  Who knows what the temp variances will be.  IIRC, the late Nov, 2003 snow event in Eugene was expected to have snow levels down to 1500-2000 feet and it ended up with heavy enough precip to bring the snow level to the surface.


Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#77
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:06 PM

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For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point.

 

Haven't heard much from you lately. What are your thoughts right now going forward? Seems like November won't be as much of a western torch as you were anticipating, at least for the next 7-10 days.



#78
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:12 PM

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Starting to think will see some flakes falling at like 34-35 deg. down to 500 ft.


I think flakes in the air at 500ft or above is not a bad call especially Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Whether it amounts to anything, I'm pretty doubtful.

#79
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:14 PM

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We were hiking around the Lake Cushman area in early September this year and I was thinking about how frequently that area gets buried. This could be one of those times.

I had a place up there for about 2 years and I always knew they received a ton of snow but I was blown away how much I seen up there. I remember posting pics but it snowed 30 inches in like 20 hrs once. Had 37 on the ground and snow was on the ground for 3 months.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#80
Phil

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:18 PM

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Haven't heard much from you lately. What are your thoughts right now going forward? Seems like November won't be as much of a western torch as you were anticipating, at least for the next 7-10 days.


Yeah, sorry I've been swamped with work lately.

Definitely not a good short term forecast on my part. Much faster MJO/KW propagation than I was thinking, so that early November ridge and mid-November trough were pushed forward quite a bit compared to my initial idea, even though the discontinuous retrogression and NPAC amplification verified.

Since the MJO/KW is also shallower (given the propagatory speed is a direct consequence of depth), it will orbit back into the IO/EHEM much more quickly, as well, which statistically favors the coldest air being centered over North America as heat/mass fluxes increase into Eurasia. So, much of North America will likely experience colder than average temperatures for the month of November, given the PV will be on our side of the pole for the aforementioned reasons.

So, November likely finishes below normal almost everywhere except for the E/SE USA and Alaska, if I had to guess right now.
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#81
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Scott Sistek posted his thoughts.

In sum, places exposed to Fraser outflow have a shot Thursday night/Friday while SW WA has the best shot Saturday night/Sunday. Other areas he thinks will mostly be cold rain, save the higher foothills.

http://komonews.com/...tern-washington

#82
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:26 PM

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Yeah, sorry I've been swamped with work lately.

Definitely not a good short term forecast on my part. Much faster MJO/KW propagation than I was thinking, so that early November ridge and mid-November trough were pushed forward quite a bit compared to my initial idea, even though the discontinuous retrogression and NPAC amplification verified.

Since the MJO/KW is also shallower (given the propagatory speed is a direct consequence of depth), it will orbit back into the IO/EHEM much more quickly, as well, which statistically favors the coldest air being centered over North America as heat/mass fluxes increase into Eurasia. So, much of North America will likely experience colder than average temperatures for the month of November, given the PV will be on our side of the pole for the aforementioned reasons.

So, November likely finishes below normal almost everywhere except for the E/SE USA and Alaska, if I had to guess right now.

 

No worries. Thanks for the update. 

 

I am curious how this will affect things going forward, since most conventional wisdom around here seemed to point to a warm November.



#83
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:48 PM

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Just even having a chance of some snow in the forecast this early for some places west of the cascades is pretty remarkable.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#84
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:51 PM

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Komo says snow level as low as 500 ft I'm awfully close to that elevation
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#85
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:52 PM

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Lolz at the one 12z GEFS member that shows 5+ inches at KSEA.

 

 

Attached Files


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#86
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:58 PM

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18z Nam looks a little further north with things on the weekend too.
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#87
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:38 PM

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Really hope this northern trend doesn't continue with these systems. Would put us in the warm sector more often.

Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#88
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:46 PM

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Really hope this northern trend doesn't continue with these systems. Would put us in the warm sector more often.

 

The track of this storm will set the tone for the entire winter. Better hope it works out.


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#89
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:53 PM

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For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point.

Edit: And near -30C in Alberta by days 6/7.


Maps?

#90
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:54 PM

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The last minute north trend has resumed after a hiatus last winter. From the 00z last night to the 18z today, the GFS has trended north with each consecutive run for the weekend system.

 

By this time tomorrow, we will all be in the warm sector and looking at 40 degree rain.  :mellow:

 

(As a side note, someone needs to bring back the 33 degree rain emoji... iFred?)



#91
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:56 PM

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Drunk uncle strikes again! 2 inches for Puget Sound... consider it done.

 

In all seriousness, I hope a system just like this comes in about one month. We would be in business.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_17.png


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#92
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:57 PM

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The last minute north trend has resumed after a hiatus last winter. From the 00z last night to the 18z today, the GFS has trended north with each consecutive run for the weekend system.

 

By this time tomorrow, we will all be in the warm sector and looking at 40 degree rain.  :mellow:

 

(As a side note, someone needs to bring back the 33 degree rain emoji... iFred?)

 

Day 3-4 isn't really last minute. ;)



#93
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 02:00 PM

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Day 3-4 isn't really last minute. ;)

 

Technically, I suppose you're right. 

 

Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute. 



#94
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 02:16 PM

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Technically, I suppose you're right.

Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute.


Maybe as the models get even better a couple weeks will be last minute!

Although we probably won’t be around to enjoy it since at that point the world will be ruled by our AI robot overlords and humans will merely be harvested as a source of biochemical energy.

#95
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 02:18 PM

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Maybe as the models get even better a couple weeks will be last minute!

Although we probably won’t be around to enjoy it since at that point the world will be ruled by our AI robot overlords and humans will merely be harvested as a source of biochemical energy.

 

Well, that escalated quickly....


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#96
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 November 2017 - 03:05 PM

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Afd slow to load hmmmm still showing 9 am version

#97
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 03:07 PM

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Afd slow to load hmmmm still showing 9 am version


They won't have much to offer given the model trends. Likely a drizzly weekend.

#98
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2017 - 03:47 PM

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Technically, I suppose you're right. 

 

Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute. 

Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will. 



#99
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:00 PM

Deweydog

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.


Shhhhhhhhhhhhh! You're the only one to have figured out the secret. Don't ruin it for everyone else.
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#100
umadbro

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:17 PM

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.


Why do you care what other people do with their free time? Why do you care how people choose to track these things? Why is it a big deal to have discussions about weather discussion on a forum made for weather discussions?

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid