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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#101
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:00 PM

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.


Shhhhhhhhhhhhh! You're the only one to have figured out the secret. Don't ruin it for everyone else.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#102
umadbro

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:17 PM

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.


Why do you care what other people do with their free time? Why do you care how people choose to track these things? Why is it a big deal to have discussions about weather discussion on a forum made for weather discussions?

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#103
Poulsbo Snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:32 PM

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Ahem...



#104
Geos

Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:05 PM

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15z SREF plume data shows a dusting for SEA on a handful of members.

http://www.spc.noaa....ref/srefplumes/


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 45.68", 12/31

2018: 3.31", 1/16, 12pm

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#105
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:14 PM

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#106
Geos

Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:20 PM

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.

 

Yeah I got a feeling BLI will come away with several inches. That Fraser outflow looks strong.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 45.68", 12/31

2018: 3.31", 1/16, 12pm

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#107
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:55 PM

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Yeah I got a feeling BLI will come away with several inches. That Fraser outflow looks strong.

Still a tough call.

Will the cold air catch up the the moisture
tomorrow??

Will the weekend system come in far enough north?

#108
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:51 PM

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.

 

This trough will be fun to track, no doubt. Almost certainly going to be at least a little lowland snow somewhere.

 

It will also be interesting to see how the pattern evolves after the upcoming cold. The ensembles seem split between some sort of -EPO ridge reload, or a full retrogression into Siberia that would open up the West to a warm pattern.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#109
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:54 PM

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FWIW, 00z NAM shows the weekend system to come in at the mouth of the Columbia - similar to the 18z GFS. Can't tell where it heads after this though.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png


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#110
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:02 PM

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FWIW, 00z NAM shows the weekend system to come in at the mouth of the Columbia - similar to the 18z GFS. Can't tell where it heads after this though.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

If you run the loop... its headed southeast towards Salem.



#111
El nina

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:04 PM

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If you run the loop... its headed southeast towards Salem.

Something for everybody?

#112
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:06 PM

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Something for everybody?


That won’t be snow in willamette valley.

#113
El nina

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:14 PM

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That won’t be snow in willamette valley.

Well besides them.

#114
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:20 PM

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Why do you care what other people do with their free time? Why do you care how people choose to track these things? Why is it a big deal to have discussions about weather discussion on a forum made for weather discussions?


Why do you care that I care? 😁

#115
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:20 PM

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Keep trending south!!

#116
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:26 PM

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Keep trending south!!


Your pants?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#117
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:29 PM

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Something for everybody?

 

I think its a little too warm overall for most everyone.  



#118
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:37 PM

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If it's too warm in central Oregon, it's most likely too warm in the lowlands of the westside. Relax, it's only November 1st and the Seahawks have just started to turn it up.

#119
WSmet

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:49 PM

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Your pants?

Burn?



#120
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:54 PM

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00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did.

 

I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png



#121
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:57 PM

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00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did.

I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times.

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png


Exciting to think of snow again.

#122
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:04 PM

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Exciting to think of snow again.


Yeah regardless of what happens it's pretty amazing we are even discussing the possibility in the first week of November.
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#123
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:05 PM

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Houston!!!



#124
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:06 PM

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Astros win!!!

#125
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:08 PM

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the World Series!!!!!!!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#126
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Yeah regardless of what happens it's pretty amazing we are even discussing the possibility in the first week of November.


So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ...

#127
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:08 PM

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No analog help there.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#128
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:10 PM

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Your pants?


In ur dreamz.

#129
WSmet

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:13 PM

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 Somebody on twitter posted they saw "legit rain/snow" today in Renton. 

 

Yea sure, ok



#130
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:16 PM

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No analog help there.

 

Dodgers lost the WS in 1978.



#131
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:18 PM

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Dodgers lost the WS in 1978.


Jackprot!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#132
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:19 PM

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 Somebody on twitter posted they snow "legit rain/snow" today in Renton. 

 

Yea sure, ok

 

It was in the mid 50s all day in Renton.   Seems very likely that is a "legit" report.   :lol:


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#133
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:22 PM

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Dodgers lost the WS in 1978.

 

Also 1966, 1974, and 1977. 

 

Attached File  woot_jump.gif   6.29KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#134
WSmet

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:22 PM

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It was in the mid 50s all day in Renton.   Seems very likely that is a "legit" report.   :lol:

OP corrected 



#135
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:25 PM

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Also 1966, 1974, and 1977. 

 

 

:o

 

 

Luckily Jesse and Jim don't believe in the power of sports.



#136
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:36 PM

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00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did.

 

I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png

 

 

A weaker low and further north track on this run.  Good combo for us.  Besides that this is the coldest run yet.  This is looking impressive.

 

It will interesting to see what kind of min temps SEA comes up with.  As for drawing in cold air...Friday looks fabulous with northerly gradients straight down the Sound.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#137
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:39 PM

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:o

 

 

Luckily Jesse and Jim don't believe in the power of sports.

 

Personally, I think it would be magical if it's snowing for the Seahawks' Sunday night game this weekend.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#138
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:39 PM

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So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ...

 

We are in very company analog wise the way this is playing out.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#139
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:45 PM

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00z GFS was quite different. The block looks much different this run with rex block after day 7 near the sweet spot. This run is very close to being really cold in the long range.


Seriously? 1 star? I get 1 star? C'mon.... 1 star? Really. That's it. I could see 3 stars, but personally I think I'm much closer to 4 stars. 1 star? This is a 5 star system, correct? 1 freaking star? You'd have to be mentally handicapped and type jibberish all day to achieve 1 pathetic star. 1 star. Really. Holy pancakes. Do I really look like I'm 1 star material? A 1 star human being to me is someone who just offers nothing and probably shits themselves not even bothering to wipe because well, they're a 1 star kinda person so why bother. 1 star. Just 1. That's crazy. I'm not even close to 2 stars. I'm fairly critical of myself, but c'mon you couldn't even click on 2 STARS? REALLY? Maybe you made a mistake and never intended on clicking 1 star. Yeah, that's it. Seriously. I mean really. I don't know where things go from here. I mean, obviously 1 star things can only go up from here! 1 star. I'm rated as someone who basically is as functioning as a lump of jello. You basically would have clicked ZERO stars, but I don't think that's an option. Pffft 1 star. Unbelievable. I may as well just call it a day and just s**t myself. Go make myself a 1 star rated sandwich and s**t myself repeatedly. Who cares if I smell or ruin my 1 star rated couch, I'm apparently just a 1 star kinda person. 1 star. Whatever. 1 star. Unreal.

 

Haha, 2 stars now! LoL


#140
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:52 PM

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The really big news in the shorter term is the 0z advects cold air down Puget Sound very effectively Thursday and Friday.  A couple of days that was not the case.  We will actually see some Fraser River air make it to Seattle.  Maybe a little bit of snow Friday morning before the moisture runs out.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#141
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:57 PM

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This run shows above normal heights over the GOA continuing right to mid month.  This is amazing.  Nearly endless above normal heights and pressure out there for weeks now.  If this continues the winter will be truly historic.  Past history indicates our winters that are cold all the way through have above normal heights / pressure over the NE Pacific in both October and November.  That is a rare occurrence and it bodes well for a very cold winter.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#142
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:59 PM

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00z GFS was quite different. The block looks much different this run with rex block after day 7 near the sweet spot. This run is very close to being really cold in the long range.

Still looks like the coldest air will be to the east



#143
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:03 PM

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Still looks like the coldest air will be to the east

 

It's still a good setup.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#144
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:06 PM

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It's still a good setup.

If we could just get that low to keep droppin'. We still need a decent snowpack in Central Oregon and the Columbia Basin to be pulling off this kind of gap event.  Mountain wave events are only effective at generating snow here if it's Siberian/Arctic air coming over us like in Dec of 2013 because of the effects of downsloping so even if the low dropped south enough offshore, I don't think the east winds would be bringing in enough cold air at the surface.  Definitely need to build that snowpack east of the cascades.  Hopefully this weekend will accomplish that.



#145
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:16 PM

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It's still a good setup.


Nice to see at least

Attached Files


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#146
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:21 PM

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00z ECMWF in 24 inutes!


  • luvssnow_seattle and stuffradio like this

Seriously? 1 star? I get 1 star? C'mon.... 1 star? Really. That's it. I could see 3 stars, but personally I think I'm much closer to 4 stars. 1 star? This is a 5 star system, correct? 1 freaking star? You'd have to be mentally handicapped and type jibberish all day to achieve 1 pathetic star. 1 star. Really. Holy pancakes. Do I really look like I'm 1 star material? A 1 star human being to me is someone who just offers nothing and probably shits themselves not even bothering to wipe because well, they're a 1 star kinda person so why bother. 1 star. Just 1. That's crazy. I'm not even close to 2 stars. I'm fairly critical of myself, but c'mon you couldn't even click on 2 STARS? REALLY? Maybe you made a mistake and never intended on clicking 1 star. Yeah, that's it. Seriously. I mean really. I don't know where things go from here. I mean, obviously 1 star things can only go up from here! 1 star. I'm rated as someone who basically is as functioning as a lump of jello. You basically would have clicked ZERO stars, but I don't think that's an option. Pffft 1 star. Unbelievable. I may as well just call it a day and just s**t myself. Go make myself a 1 star rated sandwich and s**t myself repeatedly. Who cares if I smell or ruin my 1 star rated couch, I'm apparently just a 1 star kinda person. 1 star. Whatever. 1 star. Unreal.

 

Haha, 2 stars now! LoL


#147
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:28 PM

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00z ECMWF in 24 inutes!

Bring it!!!!

#148
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:52 PM

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00z ECMWF in 24 inutes!

Let's drop that L down



#149
wx_statman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:58 PM

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1938-39 looks interesting as a possible analog. -ENSO/-QBO winter with a solidly cold first half of November. Bellingham was 44/26 on the 5th, followed by 44/22 on the 10th. There was widespread snowfall in the I-5 corridor around the 11th-12th, including PDX:

 

https://www.wundergr...gic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

The back end of that winter brought an impressive gorge blast/snowstorm which was similar in timing and nature to Feb. 2014. PDX was 27/23 on 2/9/1939 with 4" of snow, storm total of 5.1" over three days. Estacada got buried by 13" on the 8th, with 22" falling between the 7th-10th. 


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#150
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:08 PM

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The 0z ECMWF looks a little more generous for northern areas in terms of moisture tomorrow night; kind of similiar to what the NAM was showing. The WRF dries most of the north sound out before 5pm tomorrow, which seems crazy given the low is only starting to form north of Vancouver Island right now. It will be interesting which model wins out and to see how the ECMWF handles Sunday's low; it was substantially further north than all other models on the 12z run but the clear trend seems to be to take the low further south.