Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The last minute north trend has resumed after a hiatus last winter. From the 00z last night to the 18z today, the GFS has trended north with each consecutive run for the weekend system. By this time tomorrow, we will all be in the warm sector and looking at 40 degree rain. (As a side note, someone needs to bring back the 33 degree rain emoji... iFred?) Day 3-4 isn't really last minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Technically, I suppose you're right. Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute.Maybe as the models get even better a couple weeks will be last minute! Although we probably won’t be around to enjoy it since at that point the world will be ruled by our AI robot overlords and humans will merely be harvested as a source of biochemical energy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Afd slow to load hmmmm still showing 9 am version Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Afd slow to load hmmmm still showing 9 am versionThey won't have much to offer given the model trends. Likely a drizzly weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Technically, I suppose you're right. Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute. Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.Shhhhhhhhhhhhh! You're the only one to have figured out the secret. Don't ruin it for everyone else. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.Why do you care what other people do with their free time? Why do you care how people choose to track these things? Why is it a big deal to have discussions about weather discussion on a forum made for weather discussions? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Ahem... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 15z SREF plume data shows a dusting for SEA on a handful of members.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days. This thing does look impressively cold though. I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days. This thing does look impressively cold though. I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast. Yeah I got a feeling BLI will come away with several inches. That Fraser outflow looks strong. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Yeah I got a feeling BLI will come away with several inches. That Fraser outflow looks strong.Still a tough call. Will the cold air catch up the the moisture tomorrow?? Will the weekend system come in far enough north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days. This thing does look impressively cold though. I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast. This trough will be fun to track, no doubt. Almost certainly going to be at least a little lowland snow somewhere. It will also be interesting to see how the pattern evolves after the upcoming cold. The ensembles seem split between some sort of -EPO ridge reload, or a full retrogression into Siberia that would open up the West to a warm pattern. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 FWIW, 00z NAM shows the weekend system to come in at the mouth of the Columbia - similar to the 18z GFS. Can't tell where it heads after this though. If you run the loop... its headed southeast towards Salem. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Something for everybody?That won’t be snow in willamette valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Keep trending south!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Keep trending south!!Your pants? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Something for everybody? I think its a little too warm overall for most everyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 If it's too warm in central Oregon, it's most likely too warm in the lowlands of the westside. Relax, it's only November 1st and the Seahawks have just started to turn it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Your pants?Burn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did. I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times. Exciting to think of snow again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Houston!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Astros win!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 the World Series!!!!!!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Yeah regardless of what happens it's pretty amazing we are even discussing the possibility in the first week of November.So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 No analog help there. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Your pants?In ur dreamz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Somebody on twitter posted they saw "legit rain/snow" today in Renton. Yea sure, ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 No analog help there. Dodgers lost the WS in 1978. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Dodgers lost the WS in 1978.Jackprot! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Somebody on twitter posted they snow "legit rain/snow" today in Renton. Yea sure, ok It was in the mid 50s all day in Renton. Seems very likely that is a "legit" report. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Dodgers lost the WS in 1978. Also 1966, 1974, and 1977. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 It was in the mid 50s all day in Renton. Seems very likely that is a "legit" report. OP corrected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Also 1966, 1974, and 1977. Luckily Jesse and Jim don't believe in the power of sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did. I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times. A weaker low and further north track on this run. Good combo for us. Besides that this is the coldest run yet. This is looking impressive. It will interesting to see what kind of min temps SEA comes up with. As for drawing in cold air...Friday looks fabulous with northerly gradients straight down the Sound. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Luckily Jesse and Jim don't believe in the power of sports. Personally, I think it would be magical if it's snowing for the Seahawks' Sunday night game this weekend. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ... We are in very company analog wise the way this is playing out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 00z GFS was quite different. The block looks much different this run with rex block after day 7 near the sweet spot. This run is very close to being really cold in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 The really big news in the shorter term is the 0z advects cold air down Puget Sound very effectively Thursday and Friday. A couple of days that was not the case. We will actually see some Fraser River air make it to Seattle. Maybe a little bit of snow Friday morning before the moisture runs out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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