November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Furthest month out...makes sense. 

 

Their monthlies go to July.

[Geos]

Completely wrong... GFS MOS shows 48.     I am guessing mid 40s.

 

FWIW, the NAM is correct with temperatures this morning.

[wx_statman]

Nice. I visited Sandpoint in September... beautiful area. Probably will end up moving there within a year or two.

 

I went there 20 years ago on a family vacation. Definitely a nice place to visit...don't know about living there. I loved Priest Lake too. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the NAM is correct with temperatures this morning.

 

Actual temperature at 0 hours?   That should be a given for the models. 

 

The NAM and GFS temperature output seems to treat us more like a continental location.    The GFS MOS is not the same as the GFS output.

[Geos]

Actual temperature at 0 hours?   That should be a given for the models. 

 

Well the NAM initialize correctly at least. Let's see if it's right with temps today.

 

GFS OP showing 39/33 at my coordinates at 18z tomorrow. So I don't know. 48 seems a little warm though. I flipped through the news stations this morning and the warmest I saw anyone going was Ch 13 with 45.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is pretty dry for next week.   

[TT-SEA]

Well the NAM initialize correctly at least. Let's see if it's right with temps today.

 

GFS OP showing 39/33 at my coordinates at 18z tomorrow. So I don't know. 48 seems a little warm though. I flipped through the news stations this morning and the warmest I saw anyone going was Ch 13 with 45.

 

 

44 or 45 is about right.   Although... I could not care less about what local media predicts.   We are much better at analyzing the model details.... its not like they have access to data that we do not.  

 

There will be sun breaks too.   There is no way we have sun breaks and a high in the 30s in Seattle.

[Front Ranger]

It's not just that model though, it is also the JMA, the POAMA, the CanSips, the Euro Weeklies and even the regular Euro for day 11-15,, and a lot of pro mets who do long range forecasting, like for energy interests are calling for this pattern.

 

Obviously they could all be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, but this isn't just a random one time run of a long range model showing it.  

 

I'm not saying it's alone or that it will necessarily be wrong. Just commenting on what I've observed over the years with monthly outlooks. They do rely heavily on persistence.

 

The 0z EPS hints at warmth starting to return to much of the West by day 10, and cooler weather in the East. LR GFS ensembles have started to hint at this as well. But it's also close to a cold pattern, just depends on if troughing digs offshore or moves inland.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW 18z is like 10am...So those wouldn't be highs regardless...

[Front Ranger]

Their monthlies go to July.

 

Yeah, I just meant for the winter.

[TT-SEA]

BTW 18z is like 10am...So those wouldn't be highs regardless...

 

For the record... 18Z is 11 a.m. through Saturday and then 10 a.m. starting on Sunday.

 

Not the time for a high temp either way though.   But the NAM is still in the 30s in the afternoon tomorrow as well.   It shows 36 in Seattle at 2 p.m. with no precip and partial sunshine.   I have seen Seattle get to 36 even in an arctic situation in mid-winter.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record... 18Z is 11 a.m. through Saturday and then 10 a.m. starting on Sunday.

 

Not the time for a high temp either way though.   But the NAM is still in the 30s in the afternoon tomorrow as well.   It shows 36 in Seattle at 2 p.m. with no precip and partial sunshine.   We can do that even in an arctic situation in mid-winter sometimes.   

 

Haha so true. 

[Jbolin]

Snowing pretty hard in the Courtenay area this am

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love the 12z for next weekend

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing pretty hard in the Courtenay area this am

Courtenay BC looks like it just switched over to snow.

[Geos]

Interesting tidbit pulled from the 930 AFD:

 

The air will be unstable as it cools to -32c at 500mb tonight, so

far today there was only a single lightning strike up on the B.C.

coast, but there is a chance that we might have to add a chance

of thunderstorms to the forecast. If organized showers develop

tonight along the cold air boundary, perhaps somewhere around

Admiralty Inlet east into Snohomish county--then folks on the hills

might see some locally significant snow showers. We will see what

the UW wrfgfs teases us with today as it comes in

 

Sounds like snow showers orientated in a NW to SE trajectory.

[Jbolin]

Courtenay BC looks like it just switched over to snow.

Via a second hand report

[Timmy]

I love the 12z for next weekend

pretty deep trough, 528 thickness is about 1000' snow level usually, right?

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows lowland snow tonight.   We will see how good it does... don't get your hopes up.  

 

[HighlandExperience]

WRF shows lowland snow tonight. We will see how good it does... don't get your hopes up.

 

That is right over most of east king county. Will see how that works out

[Phil]

Still looks like the coldest air will be to the east

Isn't that always the case? I can't recall the "coldest" air ever advecting right over the PNW.

 

Usually the coldest air goes into Montana or North Dakota.

[ShawniganLake]

Via a second hand report

I’m sure higher elevations are doing better

 

[WeatherArchive]

I love the Lake Couer d'Alene area as well.  

Does Lake Couer d'Alene shut down when snows or are they pretty tough like Spokane?

[TT-SEA]

Does Lake Couer d'Alene shut down when snows or are they pretty tough like Spokane?

 

I highly doubt they shut down... they get more snow than Spokane.

[Geos]

Via a second hand report

 

It's 34 there, so that's believable.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/ca/courtenay

[ShawniganLake]

I love the 12z for next weekend

I’m guessing the snow level is gonna be lower than you thought.

[WeatherArchive]

I highly doubt they shut down... they get more snow than Spokane.

Down here when it snows schools shut down and the slightest dusting is an automatic 2 hour delay however they stupidly wait till 7am when the bus drivers are already on their way.    Last year when we had the 3 and 1/2 inches of snow most people stayed home so in Salem there were hardly any accidents.  Only a couple cars stalled on the Marion Street bridges but other then that it was relatively quiet in terms of calls.   Portland on the other hand tried to keep schools open then closed during the middle of the snow.  They didn't have the excuse of *surprise event* either since it was well known 2 days in advance.  The only thing that was unknown was the amount of snow but everyone knew the timing of it.

[TT-SEA]

I’m guessing the snow level is gonna be lower than you thought.

 

He is talking about next weekend... not this coming weekend.

[ShawniganLake]

He is talking about next weekend... not this coming weekend.

Ah. Yes. I hadn’t even looked that far out today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of cool onshore flow on the 12z

[Geos]

Fraser outflow should be cranking pretty soon.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

528 is generally about 1000-1500'

[ShawniganLake]

Fraser outflow should be cranking pretty soon.

 

It’s already blowing in places like Hope, Abbotsford, Agassiz but temps are still in the 40’s

[TT-SEA]

Down here when it snows schools shut down and the slightest dusting is an automatic 2 hour delay however they stupidly wait till 7am when the bus drivers are already on their way.    Last year when we had the 3 and 1/2 inches of snow most people stayed home so in Salem there were hardly any accidents.  Only a couple cars stalled on the Marion Street bridges but other then that it was relatively quiet in terms of calls.   Portland on the other hand tried to keep schools open then closed during the middle of the snow.  They didn't have the excuse of *surprise event* either since it was well known 2 days in advance.

 

The school district here in the Snoqualmie Valley is pretty tough... they stay open unless its really bad.

 

Last January... I was talking to a co-worker who lives in Vancouver, WA long after it snowed there and while the sun was shining and he said schools were still closed because there was still some on the ground.   

 

This was on December 9th last year... my son had just got home from school.    On time with no delays.    

 

 

 

And here is a pic that I took earlier that morning while driving them to school... this is downtown North Bend.   East wind was cranking at 30 mph with snow and blowing snow and there was not even a delay for the schools.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I love the 12z for next weekend

Seems pretty meh to me

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm not saying it's alone or that it will necessarily be wrong. Just commenting on what I've observed over the years with monthly outlooks. They do rely heavily on persistence.

 

The 0z EPS hints at warmth starting to return to much of the West by day 10, and cooler weather in the East. LR GFS ensembles have started to hint at this as well. But it's also close to a cold pattern, just depends on if troughing digs offshore or moves inland.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

 

This is why I don't attempt to make forecasts, it is just too difficult, I give a lot of credit to people who do, and even if they turn out wrong, I respect that they gave it an effort.  Models say one thing, then you have analogs, etc.   So you won't hear me criticize anyone's forecasts.  

 

I know some of the mets are absolutely adamant that the east will have a massive ridge for the 2nd half of November, with maybe a quick shot of cold first.

 

BTW, last nights 0Z ECMWF EPS  8-14 day outlook shows cool temps for Washington, not icebox, but cool  

 

[Jesse]

Via a second hand report

What is your location?

[ShawniganLake]

Snow is definitely picking up across central Vancouver Island. Still 41 with a south wind here.

 

[Geos]

Snow is definitely picking up across central Vancouver Island. Still 41 with a south wind here.

 

I don't think for long though. Already a light north wind at Lake Cowichan. 

[TT-SEA]

Snow is definitely picking up across central Vancouver Island. Still 41 with a south wind here.

 

Definitely snowing in Courtenay...