November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TigerWoodsLibido]

On another note, Michael Ventrice tweeted out an interesting graph about the differences between last night's Euro vs the 12Z Euro from today  He said "Uncharacteristically large changes in today's 12Z ECMWF EPS run by Forecast Day 10; Could be a buyer beware type of situation with regards to this evening's ECMWF Weekly model release."

 

Note, on this image, which is hour 258, this is the difference in the 500mb from last nights run not the actual anomalies.   Not sure what this means for temps, probably a bit cooler, maybe a lot more stormy?

 

 

eurochanges.jpg

 

Let's hope it's onto something good!

[Jbolin]

Wind slowly picking up here in Bellevue. Coincides, more or less, with squall lines at this point.

 

NWS is reporting 25 ft waves off Westport. Not too shabby.

Buoy 41 NW of Aberdeen reporting 31ft

[Phil]

The mesoscale model used for NOAA's point-and-click forecasts is far superior to extrapolations based on 8 years of data from the 1970s @ camp Muir. I'm still not sure why this is even being debated here.

 

That's like me arguing that I can better-determine the temperature of the Antarctic lower troposphere by extrapolating from a surface station on the ice sheet, as opposed to utilizing satellite data and homogenized modeling for said boundary layer. There's just no scientific basis for the former.

[Front Ranger]

If you think about how high Mount Rainier is, it makes sense that it would be windier than Mount Washington. We are talking 14,410 feet in elevation.

 

I will admit that it is a somewhat unfair comparison since Rainier is about 2.5 times higher than Mount Washinton, but to say Mount Washington is the windier of the two sort of defies logic. It is what it is. And the fact that a long term weather station could under no circumstances be kept on the summit of Rainier, while on the summit of Washington you have several buildings and a visitor area that remains intact year to year, sort of speaks to this.

 

I don't know...having been to the top of quite a few 14,000+ peaks, I don't think they are necessarily that much windier than other, lower mountains. It's certainly not a near-linear thing related to elevation like temperature.

 

Mt. Washington, NH probably is the windiest place in the U.S. There's no actual data that says otherwise.

[Phil]

If you think about how high Mount Rainier is, it makes sense that it would be windier than Mount Washington. We are talking 14,410 feet in elevation.

 

I will admit that it is a somewhat unfair comparison since Rainier is about 2.5 times higher than Mount Washinton, but to say Mount Washington is the windier of the two sort of defies logic. It is what it is. And the fact that a long term weather station could under no circumstances be kept on the summit of Rainier, while on the summit of Washington you have several buildings and a visitor area that remains intact year to year, sort of speaks to this.

Rainier is uninhabitable because it's infinitely snowier, colder, and higher in elevation. Not because of wind speed...a 300mph wind on Mt. Rainier would apply less force than a 200mph wind on Mt. Washington due to the difference in pressure.

 

The reason Mt. Washington is so windy at such a low altitude is due to local topographic properties there. Not necessarily the height of the mountain.

[Phil]

I don't know...having been to the top of quite a few 14,000+ peaks, I don't think they are necessarily that much windier than other, lower mountains. It's certainly not a near-linear thing related to elevation like temperature.

 

Mt. Washington, NH probably is the windiest place in the U.S. There's no actual data really that says otherwise.

I think you nailed it here. The bolded is exactly how the extrapolation from the camp Muir data was carried out, and it's almost certainly incorrect based on our (very accurate) modeling of streamflow/boundary conditions up there, from what I can tell.

[Phil]

I don't know...having been to the top of quite a few 14,000+ peaks, I don't think they are necessarily that much windier than other, lower mountains. It's certainly not a near-linear thing related to elevation like temperature.

BTW, that's impressive. Which mountains have you climbed?

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

Hood River has the best historical data set, although it's still petty choppy. at times

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or4003

Thanks man. I always enjoy the station data and historical climate discussions you/statman contribute here.

[Front Ranger]

BTW, that's impressive. Which mountains have you climbed?

 

It's not hard to do around here. 

 

14ers: Pikes, Long's, Quandary, Bierstadt (2), Grays, Torreys, Bross, Democrat, Lincoln, and Sherman. Also been to the top of Mt. Evans a couple times, but by vehicle, not foot.

 

Long's was easily the most difficult. We started at 3 am (to avoid the afternoon t-storms), reached the summit around 10 am, started back around 11 and were back at the car around 9000' by 3 pm.

[Phil]

[HighlandExperience]

[Front Ranger]

Not this again . Having summited Rainier many times, I can testify that Mt Washington is much safer despite the high wind speeds. There is a reason all the premiere Himalayan climbers in the US climb the Cascades. Pretty much all the top alpinist in North America live in the PNW for good reason.

 

Seattle, Calgary, Portland, and Vancouver BC are the major citoes in NA to live in if you want to get practice for the bigger ranges.

 

Edit: I’ve also climbed extensively in BC and the Rockies of US and Canada.

 

I admit our lowland climate sucks though

 

Yeah, as far as climbing goes, obviously mountains with actual glaciers and tons of snow are going to be much more difficult than those without. Plus, with the Cascade range the total distance climbed is much greater than most other ranges where you're starting closer to the peaks.

[HighlandExperience]

Well, that's an entirety different topic of discussion. Certainly the aggregate of weather conditions on the summit of Mt. Rainier is much harsher than those on Mt. Washington, due to the huge difference in elevation and upstream moisture source. Would be impossible to set up any kind of "observatory" there. It would probably be buried in snow during the winter.

 

I'm just referring to wind speeds. Not only are they higher on Mount Washington, but the air pressure provides for much greater mechanical force, compared to the summit of Mount Rainier.

If we could stop global warming we would all be happy. Just hoping this climate gets better.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

I don't know...having been to the top of quite a few 14,000+ peaks, I don't think they are necessarily that much windier than other, lower mountains. It's certainly not a near-linear thing related to elevation like temperature.

 

Mt. Washington, NH probably is the windiest place in the U.S. There's no actual data that says otherwise.

Never said it was near linear. You are playing devil’s advocate. The fourteeners in Colorado are not comparable to Rainier, though. Latitude and proximity to the mean storm track makes a huge difference. Compare the amount of glacial ice on Rainier versus Pike’s Peak.

[Phil]

Never said it was near linear. You are playing devil’s advocate. The fourteeners in Colorado are not comparable to Rainier, though. Latitude and proximity to the mean storm track makes a huge difference. Compare the amount of glacial ice on Rainier versus Pike’s Peak.

Exactly, it's not a linear relationship, which is why the extrapolation from the 1970s camp Muir data is in conflict with the mesoscale modeling used today to forecast conditions at the summit. Atmospheric science has advanced quite a bit since the days of hand-drawn isobars.

 

Please don't take my word for it. You can monitor the point-and-click summit forecasts yourself.

[Timmy]

really stimulating argument fellas. seems like the best coarse of action would be to put some instrumentation up at the top of rainier. otherwise seems like an argument you can’t really win either way.

[umadbro]

Why can't people just accept that Jesse is right always? He's been in college for 8 years for teaching! He knows all.

 

Sorry guys, facts are facts

[luvssnow_spokane]

Highest wind speed at my place in Bonney Lake has be close to 20mph...

[Jesse]

Why can't people just accept that Jesse is right always? He's been in college for 8 years for teaching! He knows all.

 

Sorry guys, facts are facts

Timmy’s gonna like this so hard.

[Phil]

Here's the point and click for the Mt. Rainier summit. Gusts to 75mph tonight and tomorrow. Very windy, but despite this storm, it's still less than the forecasted 93mph at Mt. Washington on Wednesday (a modest storm by their standards).

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8533&lon=-121.7589&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

Those are some insane snowfall totals too. Wow.

[Jesse]

PDX gusted to 37mph so far. Not too shabby.

[Timmy]

Timmy’s gonna like this so hard.

uscaredbro?

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Jesse]

uscaredbro?

i wish there was a way to like posts more then once

[Geos]

Winds gusts are definitely topping 40 mph now at work. Really dark out there right now. Power flickering every couple minutes.

[Phil]

Here's the point and click for the Mt. Rainier summit. Gusts to 75mph tonight and tomorrow. Very windy, but despite this storm, it's still less than the forecasted 93mph at Mt. Washington on Wednesday (a modest storm by their standards).

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8533&lon=-121.7589&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

Those are some insane snowfall totals too. Wow.

Here's the forecast for the summit of Mt. Washington, by comparison. Much less precip/snowfall than Rainier, but also much windier both in gusts and in the sustained too, starting Thursday.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&pqpfhr=6&psnwhr=6&AheadHour=0&FcstType=graphical&textField1=44.2703&textField2=-71.3033&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=&AheadDay.x=66&AheadDay.y=18&AheadDay=48

 

The highest *gusts* on top of Rainier today are roughly equal to the highest *sustained* winds on Washington on Thursday.

[Geos]

Something tells me there might be heavy rain headed our way....

 

It looks like it's 5 pm already!

[Timmy]

It looks like it's 5 pm already!

go ahead and have a drink or two, we won’t judge you. pretty sure a few on here are drunk already.

[Phil]

[Geos]

go ahead and have a drink or two, we won’t judge you. pretty sure a on here are drunk already.

 

I would if I wasn't at work. lol

 

That's an intense looking radar display.

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Something tells me there might be heavy rain headed our way....

School gets out in 15 minutes.

 

This is not going to be a fun dismissal.

[MossMan]

Power now surging at work (Snohomish/Skagit border) and I see the Snohomish Co outage map has jumped by about 20,000 over the last half hour...

[Deweydog]

really stimulating argument fellas. seems like the best coarse of action would be to put some instrumentation up at the top of rainier. otherwise seems like an argument you can’t really win either way.

I used to live in a DR Horton development at the summit of Rainier. I could win this debate with one hand tied behind my back.

[Timmy]

surprised there isn’t any sort of advisory up for oregon cascades. sticking snow over the passes and they have had 9 inches new since this morning at timberline already.

[Timmy]

I used to live in a DR Horton development at the summit of Rainier. I could win this debate with one hand tied behind my back.

what is the other hand doing?

[TT-SEA]

I used to live in a DR Horton development at the summit of Rainier. I could win this debate with one hand tied behind my back.

 

They just opened a new Whole Foods at the summit of Rainier... those yuppies up there are happy now.   

[Deweydog]

what is the other hand doing?

Could be one of several things.

 

1. Giving a peace sign.

2. Hailing a taxi cab.

3. Playing the piano.

4. Giving a high five.

5. Flicking a cigarette.

[DareDuck]

Here's the point and click for the Mt. Rainier summit. Gusts to 75mph tonight and tomorrow. Very windy, but despite this storm, it's still less than the forecasted 93mph at Mt. Washington on Wednesday (a modest storm by their standards).

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8533&lon=-121.7589&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

Those are some insane snowfall totals too. Wow.

Im not sure the difference it makes, but that point click forecast is 1400’ below the summit.