November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Im not sure the difference it makes, but that point click forecast is 1400’ below the summit.

Not a huge difference, because Mt. Washington's grid is also centered below the summit, and there's much less competing terrain at Rainier's altitude compared to Mt. Washington's.

[Timmy]

Could be one of several things.

 

1. Giving a peace sign.

2. Hailing a taxi cab.

3. Playing the piano.

4. Giving a high five.

5. Flicking a cigarette.

you are my favorite

[Blizzard777]

Wind increasing south sound with this current band of moisture. Lights flickered a bit.

Some pretty good wave action down in port of Tacoma as well.

 

Jim

[Geos]

Weather station stopped reporting at 3pm, so either some debris hit it or the power is out at home. 

[Geos]

Winds gusting to 50 mph on 520 bridge.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/930221855192920064

[Phil]

Wow, I didn't know the WRH site was live streaming the entire ASOS network. Looks like all the listed ASOS stations (countrywide) are available, though some report at different intervals.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KMWN&num=720

 

November 10th looks nasty @ KMWN..freezing fog at -8*F, with winds to 90mph and wind chills close to -50*F. No bueno.

[Front Ranger]

Never said it was near linear. You are playing devil’s advocate. The fourteeners in Colorado are not comparable to Rainier, though. Latitude and proximity to the mean storm track makes a huge difference. Compare the amount of glacial ice on Rainier versus Pike’s Peak.

 

Honestly, I wasn't. Just responding to what you said about the elevation factor.

 

Sounds like you agree that there are other significant factors...so the fact that Rainier is so much higher than Mt. Washington doesn't necessarily mean it's windier. We just don't have any data that backs that up. It's possible, but we have real data for other locations.

[seattleweatherguy]

Weather station stopped reporting at 3pm, so either some debris hit it or the power is out at home.

Light flickered, but power is still on here

[Geos]

Light flickered, but power is still on here

 

It's been flickering regularly here east of 405, so far the power has stayed on. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Rather lackluster in the valley/PDX metro so far. What else is new though. The WRF was way, way, off suggesting gusts 50-60mph for PDX metro. I remember when it used to be the most accurate hi-res model we had. We could rely on it. Not any longer. The ECMWF did the best, but it will still not perfect.

 

Crown Point is 750' elevation

 

12z ECMWF, EPS not as torchy as previous runs

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes!

[DareDuck]

Mt. Bachelor picked up 10” new the last 24 hours. Up to a 30” base now. If the Euro is right they could be looking at a 6-7’ base by the weekend. Could be one of the best starts to the season in quite some time.

[Blizzard777]

So, a weather station in downtown Seattle is reporting a temperature of -38F.

 

Pretty sure that's a sign this winter will go down in history and anyone who says differently can go live on the top of whichever mountain is windier.

That must be where that new ice bar is in Seattle.....Cheers, it’s cocktail time

[Jesse]

So, a weather station in downtown Seattle is reporting a temperature of -38F.

 

Pretty sure that's a sign this winter will go down in history and anyone who says differently can go live on the top of whichever mountain is windier.

That must be Mit's house. He hasn't not had a freeze yet this year.

[TT-SEA]

That must be Mit's house. He hasn't not had a freeze yet this year.

 

It has gone below freezing plenty of times here in 2017.   

 

In fact the year started out with heavy snow and 31 degrees.  

 

It has not gone below freezing yet this fall.    Its come very close but it has not happened yet.   I can't change that fact, but it sure seems to bother you as you continually bring it up.  

[Jesse]

It has gone below freezing plenty of times here in 2017.

 

In fact the year started out with heavy snow and 31 degrees.

 

It has not gone below freezing yet this fall. Its come very close but it has not happened yet. I can't change that fact, but it sure seems to bother you as you continually bring it up.

Just a stupid/silly joke. Relax.

[Bryant]

Just got power back on an hour or so ago at home. Was out for about 14 hours. Hopefully we can keep it on

[Front Ranger]

That must be where that new ice bar is in Seattle.....Cheers, it’s cocktail time0F535666-CD5D-4098-8C0A-510F2C8956A0.jpeg

 

I went to one of those in Boston. Novel but lame, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Just a stupid/silly joke. Relax.

 

I am totally relaxed.   I keep seeing you bring it up as if it really bothers you and its sort of amusing.   

[Guest Dome Buster]

Safe to say Cam Newton will never be a quality quarterback.  Makes me real happy.

[Phil]

The more I look into it, the more I think those warm off-equator Pacific SSTAs are an after-effect of the prolonged +QBO @ 50mb and will be terminated/flip cold by the end of winter.

 

This simply isn't sustainable going forward as the equatorial tropopause cools/rises with the QBO flip.

[Front Ranger]

I am totally relaxed.   I keep seeing you bring it up as if it really bothers you and its sort of amusing.   

 

[Phil]

So my guess is, when the 50mb QBO flips (probably towards the second half of December into early January), the equatorward contraction of the NPAC Hadley Cell will increase trade winds over the off-equator EPAC, cooling those SSTs via evaporative feedback and upwelling.

[Geos]

Internet is out at home but got power still. Seen some huge flashes of blue light which indicates power transformers are blowing out. Winds are strongest they've been all day.

[stuffradio]

Internet is out at home but got power still. Seen some huge flashes of blue light which indicates power transformers are blowing out. Winds are strongest they've been all day.

It's like living in the 1800's!

[MossMan]

It's like living in the 1800's!

Or 1995! Was still relying on Andy Wappler, Jeff Renner, Steve Pool, and the NOAA weather radio during the big blow of Dec. 1995!

[MossMan]

Pretty good gusts at home but nothing earth shattering. Still have power and internet!

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty good gusts at home but nothing earth shattering. Still have power and internet!

total bust here. It has picked up a bit this evening. Gusting to 8mph.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well that was a very nice moderate fall storm... enjoyed it.

[Geos]

It's like living in the 1800's!

Or 1995! Was still relying on Andy Wappler, Jeff Renner, Steve Pool, and the NOAA weather radio during the big blow of Dec. 1995!

Yeah really. 1995. I think I got internet in 1997 or early 98. Most of Kenmore is out right now and along Lake Washington on the northeast shore area. Heard from a friend the north portion of Woodinville is largely dark too.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

No power at my BI location.

[Front Ranger]

Or 1995! Was still relying on Andy Wappler, Jeff Renner, Steve Pool, and the NOAA weather radio during the big blow of Dec. 1995!

 

Pssh. 14 year old Flatiron had internet then. Of course, it took 5-10 minutes to load the radar page.

[DareDuck]

So my guess is, when the 50mb QBO flips (probably towards the second half of December into early January), the equatorward contraction of the NPAC Hadley Cell will increase trade winds over the off-equator EPAC, cooling those SSTs via evaporative feedback and upwelling.

So CA isn’t screwed? Hope they can at least get average precip.

[MossMan]

Pssh. 14 year old Flatiron had internet then. Of course, it took 5-10 minutes to load the radar page.

Not until 1997 for me...dialup was so fun with exciting noises and you could eat dinner and take a nap then the NWS Seattle discussion page would be all loaded up!

[Phil]

So CA isn’t screwed? Hope they can at least get average precip.

I think they'll do better during the second half of winter.

[DareDuck]

I think they'll do better during the second half of winter.

I hope so. If you have any obvious developments that affect the SW would you mind posting in the Ca forum? I’m sure me, haap, thunder, and ironically named Mr Marine Layer would appreciate it.

[Front Ranger]

Not until 1997 for me...dialup was so fun with exciting noises and you could eat dinner and take a nap then the NWS Seattle discussion page would be all loaded up!

 

Yep. Every once in awhile I'll hear a fax machine and have flashbacks.

[snow_wizard]

This was kind of a strange wind event for SEA.  They had two separate periods where winds gusted in excess of 40mph with the total event lasting from 2am to at least 7pm.  I can't figure out how they got a period of SW winds in the very early morning while the storm was still to the NW of us.

[Jesse]

This was kind of a strange wind event for SEA.  They had two separate periods where winds gusted in excess of 40mph with the total event lasting from 2am to at least 7pm.  I can't figure out how they got a period of SW winds in the very early morning while the storm was still to the NW of us.

 

I think that early morning spike was associated with the occluded front. Perhaps a small secondary area of low pressure developed along the front. We got a small burst of southeries with that down here too, before dawn.

[snow_wizard]

If you think about how high Mount Rainier is, it makes sense that it would be windier than Mount Washington. We are talking 14,410 feet in elevation.

 

I will admit that it is a somewhat unfair comparison since Rainier is about 2.5 times higher than Mount Washinton, but to say Mount Washington is the windier of the two sort of defies logic. It is what it is. And the fact that a long term weather station could under no circumstances be kept on the summit of Rainier, while on the summit of Washington you have several buildings and a visitor area that remains intact year to year, sort of speaks to this.

 

Indeed.  The summit of Rainier is the coldest place in the lower 48 and some places further down the mountain are the snowiest places on Earth.  Pretty hard to beat Rainier for nasty weather.

[snow_wizard]

I think that early morning spike was associated with the occluded front. Perhaps a small secondary area of low pressure developed along the front. We got a small burst of southeries with that down here too, before dawn.

 

That probably explains the unusual amount of branches I had in my yard this morning.  My anemometer is blocked from the south so it had registered east 28 as my strongest wind to that point.