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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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This was kind of a strange wind event for SEA.  They had two separate periods where winds gusted in excess of 40mph with the total event lasting from 2am to at least 7pm.  I can't figure out how they got a period of SW winds in the very early morning while the storm was still to the NW of us.

I was woken up with a couple gusts between 1 and 3am. My husky enjoys having the window open at night. It was pretty good.

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NWS Seattle is saying a home weather station on Queen Anne recorded a 68 mph gust.

 

If the station is accurate, that's impressive considering the low is not all too deep.

 

This is actually quite an impressive event for how high the pressure is.  The overall pressure field is higher than usual for one of these so the gradients are still strong.  This event was also a bit chillier than you would normally see with a south wind event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Winds still strong enough to test the power still. Saw another blue flash to the south a few minutes ago.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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We were all still catching up to Al Gore back then.

I had a friend in the 1980’s that had the modem that you would put your corded phone receiver onto it and latch it down, I thought that was out of this world cool!! Anyway back to weather...

Between last weeks snow, and today’s storm it has really gotten me in the mood for active exciting weather! Wouldn’t a Dec. 2008 repeat be wonderful!

86FD92AF-68AE-4C40-A367-584F8AA31272.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I miss waiting to here the 6-10 day outlook on the weather radio.

Remember the pure excitement when it would say “6-10 day outlook calls for much below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation” It was the best!! December 1990!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeahhhhhh. Ugliest run of the month by far.

It's not a good pattern for the west (for now) but the manner in which the pattern is evolving bodes well for you guys once the poleward -AAM propagation completes, in my opinion.

 

The weak NPAC jet/-NAM is a great precursor to -PNA in a Niña when you have an ongoing meridional AAM transference. You guys just need to be patient for another 3-4 weeks, lol.

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162.55 megahertz broadcasting from the national weather service forcast office in Seattle. The transmitter is located on gold mountain on the kitsap peninsula.

I would wait each hour for the updated current conditions and when I would hear it say “Bellingham- A quarter mile visibility with snow and fog, 29 degrees, north wind at 10 gusts to 20”...I knew the snow was coming in! Oh and “Wind speeds recorded in knots”

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The weak NPAC jet/-NAM is a great precursor to -PNA in a Niña when you have an ongoing meridional AAM transference. You guys just need to be patient for another 3-4 weeks, lol.

Wow @ the latest d8-14 analogs. Lots of heavy hitters in there during the following months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

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I would always phone the local equivalent which was Environment Canada releasing the 5 day forecast over the phone. I would call it almost every day after school hoping for mention of snow!

If I remember correctly I could also receive Environment Canada’s weather radio signal as well...I think...

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Wow @ the latest d8-14 analogs. Lots of heavy hitters in there.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

I remember washing my truck around Thanksgiving 2008 wearing shorts and short sleeves and wondering to myself if winter was going to show up or not...and we all remember what happened a few weeks later!!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Wow @ the latest d8-14 analogs. Lots of heavy hitters in there during the following months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

I was honestly just saying earlier today. “ I hope we have a big fat ridge over us towards the end of November”.

 

Edit. As I think that may line up December prospects

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Just looking at the 500mb pattern it doesn’t look overly impressive.

 

Rain totals just from 10 a.m. Saturday through 10 a.m. Sunday... GFS shows nothing like this at all.    ECMWF will be right.  

 

ecmwf_precip_24_washington_24.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z ECMWF 500mb progressive far more believable than the garbage GFS. Looks wet and stormy. Potential wind storm pattern.

I actually think the ECMWF might be suffering from its typical trough split bias over the NE-Pacific. I don't see a reason there should be that much wave dispersion there.

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Ended up with a cool day actually. 

 

44/39 with almost an inch of rain. I would imagine the ski resorts did well today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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