Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


  • Please log in to reply

#1
snow_wizard

Posted 03 March 2014 - 10:57 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

There is little question things look primed for a major El Nino to rapidly develop in the coming weeks due a major subsurface Kelvin wave racing eastward across the Equatorial Pacific.  

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

At The same time this Kelvin wave is being being reinforced by a horrible WWB currently taking place

 

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

 

 

When looking at these two factors in combination with a pretty major tanking of the SOI it is hard to be optimistic about our chances of escaping a significant warm ENSO event.  On the other hand the atmosphere has proven to be very hostile to potential El Ninos in recent years and there is some chance we could escape it.  In this case there is evidence the MJO will be entering a phase hostile to El Nino at about the same time the warm subsurface water tries to emerge off the coast of South America.  If the MJO forecasts are correct it's reasonably likely the AAM will turn negative later this month which would also be bad news for a developing El Nino.  All this having been said, I would have to conclude the chances for a significant El Nino later this years are about 70% to 80%.  We will know a lot more in a few weeks when that warm subsurface water breaks the surface in the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

If we have a significant El Nino next winter the chances are high the last half of the winter will be a total loss, but some El Ninos do feature some cold and snow chances early on.


  • Chris likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#2
Black Hole

Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:22 PM

Black Hole

    Daily Contributor

  • Admin
  • 1170 posts
  • LocationBountiful, Ut 84010 ~4575ft

Nice job on this. I think its about time for one, as its been a while.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#3
BLI snowman

Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:23 PM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5034 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

Most El Ninos feature snow and cold chances, but most of them fall short of anything that could be considered very good. The bold ones are the years that were clearly extremely woeful for the entire region.

 

2009-10: Cold December with little snow, historic January/February torch

2006-07: A rare active and chilly El Nino

2004-05: Cold 1st half of January, otherwise a drought filled torch

2002-03: Historically mild, with arctic air relegated to late October

1997-98: Cold 1st half of January, torchy the rest of the time

1994-95: Active winter with a lot of torching but also with several brief cold/snow events

1991-92: Incredible torch that lasted through summer, with arctic air relegated to late October

1987-88: Chilly winter but lacking any major or defining event

1986-87: Total piece of crap, some flooding

1982-83: Total piece of crap, with tons of mild rain

1977-78: Active winter with some snow/cold events early on

1976-77: Historic drought, lots of fake cold

1972-73: Historic cold December period, a very rare strong El Nino

1969-70: Wet and active January, otherwise extremely dull

1968-69: Upper echelon cold/snow for the region, no winter since has been better

1965-66: Very active and chilly with a bunch of wet snow events

1963-64: Dull and awful

1958-59: Mild and active winter with a brief January arctic blast and several snowfalls

1957-58: Top tier torch that lasted through the summer

1953-54: Blockbuster January snowfalls

1952-53: Historic drought followed by all time historic mild/wet January

1951-52: Cold/snowy winter throughout

 

 

Since 1950, we've never gone more than 3 consecutive El Nino winters without a legitimately awful one for the entire region, like the bolded. 2004-05 was pretty close, to be fair, but it did feature more arctic air than many of our bad El Ninos have had through the decades. I think a mild and lackluster 2014-15 is a good call at this point, strictly from a historical climo standpoint.


  • Chris and paulstorm like this

#4
snow_wizard

Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:34 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Most El Ninos feature snow and cold chances, but most of them fall short of anything that could be considered very good. The bold ones are the years that were clearly extremely woeful for the entire region.

 

 

 

Since 1950, we've never gone more than 3 consecutive El Nino winters without a legitimately awful one for the entire region, like the bolded. 2004-05 was pretty close, to be fair, but it did feature more arctic air than many of our bad El Ninos have had through the decades. I think a mild and lackluster 2014-15 is a good call at this point, strictly from a historical climo standpoint.

 

Very possible.  If the winter is set to be doomed we might as well go for a very strong Nino and get it over with.  The winters following those usually have at least one major blast such 1983-84, 1992-93, 1998-99, and 2003-04.

 

If we do avoid a Nino next winter the chances are decent the tendency we have seen for Arctic blasts this winter will carry into next winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#5
BLI snowman

Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:41 PM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5034 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

Very possible.  If the winter is set to be doomed we might as well go for a very strong Nino and get it over with.  The winters following those usually have at least one major blast such 1983-84, 1992-93, 1998-99, ad 2003-04.

 

If we do avoid a Nino this winter the chances are decent the tendency we have seen for Arctic blasts this winter will carry into next winter.

 

I'd like to think that if we get an ugly Nino in 2014-15, we could get a good old fashioned cold/stormy La Nina in 2015-16.



#6
Jesse

Posted 04 March 2014 - 07:33 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

This thread makes me sad. :(

 

Not only will the NW likely see a torchy winter if we do indeed get a major El Nino next year. We will likely see a big spike in global temps too. Hopefully the unfavorable atmosphere can keep this thing at weak to moderate. I hate big El Ninos.



#7
iFred

Posted 04 March 2014 - 07:54 AM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 2105 posts
  • LocationPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania.

I'd like to think that if we get an ugly Nino in 2014-15, we could get a good old fashioned cold/stormy La Nina in 2015-16.

 

We are getting due not only for a mega winter, but also another region wide wind storm.


  • MossMan and Skagit Weather like this

#8
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:20 AM

GHweatherChris

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1889 posts

This thread makes me sad. :(

 

Not only will the NW likely see a torchy winter if we do indeed get a major El Nino next year. We will likely see a big spike in global temps too. Hopefully the unfavorable atmosphere can keep this thing at weak to moderate. I hate big El Ninos.

Good thing we don't know how the weather will turn out.



#9
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:21 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10140 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

I really think we are going to have to live through a major Nino, but then we will have a multi-year Nina following it.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#10
Phil

Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:25 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11971 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

We are getting due not only for a mega winter, but also another region wide wind storm.


You're never "due" for anything when it comes to the climate system. The statistical hyperbole is everywhere and it blurs the line between conclusion and reality. It's such a convenient thought process, though, that folks still gravitate towards it.

It's way too early to be claiming 2014-15 will suck in the west, and/or that the tropical forcings/circulations will spike the global temperature. Heck, it's not even a given that we'll anything more than a weak El Niño. These questions will be answered in 4-5 months...it's much more complicated than ENSO = etc.

Take the 2002-03 El Niño vs the 2009-10 El Niño. Both nearly the same in terms of ONI, but far different in regards to the stratosphere (QBO/QTO/SAO), Solar, and the tropical circulations.

The 2002-03 El Niño did not register in the global temperature, the 2009-10 El Niño led to a large spike. They also were very different winters in the PNW. There are obvious reasons for the differences..there is no such thing as a "typical" El Niño, but I would say there are two breeds of Niño. I'll get into that later.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#11
Chris

Posted 04 March 2014 - 08:59 AM

Chris

    Community Mod

  • Admin
  • 1054 posts
  • LocationOregon Coast Range 1000'

I'm not sure what the causal mechanism is between El Nino and the split jet/warmer NW winters.  Frankly I think we're in uncharted territory between the low solar, weird tropics, and warmer globe. 

 

I wouldn't write off any winter based on the ENSO state.  La Nina's were generally supposed to be cold and snowy for the Pacific Northwest, but 2 out of the last 3 didn't work out that way.



#12
Jesse

Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:28 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I'm not sure what the causal mechanism is between El Nino and the split jet/warmer NW winters. Frankly I think we're in uncharted territory between the low solar, weird tropics, and warmer globe.

I wouldn't write off any winter based on the ENSO state. La Nina's were generally supposed to be cold and snowy for the Pacific Northwest, but 2 out of the last 3 didn't work out that way.


The globe has seen no net warming since 1998.
  • Phil likes this

#13
Chris

Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:38 AM

Chris

    Community Mod

  • Admin
  • 1054 posts
  • LocationOregon Coast Range 1000'

The globe has seen no net warming since 1998.

 

I'm aware the temperature has plateaued since '98.   Most of the Nino's on Justin's list were prior to that. 

 

Nino or not, I'm not writing off next winter.


  • MossMan likes this

#14
Jesse

Posted 04 March 2014 - 10:52 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I'm aware the temperature has plateaued since '98. Most of the Nino's on Justin's list were prior to that.

Nino or not, I'm not writing off next winter.


I'm in the same camp. There is still lots of uncertainty.

#15
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 04 March 2014 - 11:20 AM

Timmy_Supercell

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1039 posts
  • LocationKlamath Falls, Oregon (4,320 ft.)

I'm in the same camp. There is still lots of uncertainty.

 

I'm not in the same camp, winter winter go away!  :D


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 2 (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#16
Jesse

Posted 04 March 2014 - 12:08 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I'm not in the same camp, winter winter go away! :D

Consider yourself at odds with 95% of the forum, in that case.

That is for next winter, of course. I think most people are ready for spring this year.

#17
Deweydog

Posted 04 March 2014 - 01:09 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11533 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

It's March 4th.

 

We love anxiety!


  • MossMan and Jesse like this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#18
Brennan

Posted 04 March 2014 - 03:02 PM

Brennan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 892 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa

1968-1969... 2006-2007


  • MossMan likes this

#19
snow_wizard

Posted 04 March 2014 - 05:57 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

1968-1969... 2006-2007

 

I think 1972-73 feels left out.


  • MossMan likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#20
stuffradio

Posted 06 March 2014 - 02:56 PM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2204 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

1968-1969... 2006-2007

06-07 had a major Wind storm here that toppled thousands of trees in Stanley Park.



#21
Abbotsford_wx

Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:20 PM

Abbotsford_wx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 361 posts
  • LocationAbbotsford, BC

Weak El Ninos can be good for us, so I'm not ready to panic yet. They usually make for active winters, at any rate.



#22
weather girl

Posted 07 March 2014 - 03:14 PM

weather girl

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 26 posts
  • LocationSalem, Oregon - 500 feet
This is good, Jim. I'm glad to see this topic. Everything is pointed in this direction with a couple of unknowns out there. I'd say 50-50.

#23
Jesse

Posted 07 March 2014 - 04:51 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

This is good, Jim. I'm glad to see this topic. Everything is pointed in this direction with a couple of unknowns out there. I'd say 50-50.

 

I'm surprised you didn't ask about implications for our summer.

 

I would definitely be ok with a cooler summer than last year, especially late summer.



#24
weather girl

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:17 PM

weather girl

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 26 posts
  • LocationSalem, Oregon - 500 feet

I'm surprised you didn't ask about implications for our summer.
 
I would definitely be ok with a cooler summer than last year, especially late summer.


Haha! I wanted to go there. I think we might be in for a hot summer. It's about that time.

#25
Jesse

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:22 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Haha! I wanted to go there. I think we might be in for a hot summer. It's about that time.

 

Wasn't last summer pretty hot down that way?

 

It was Seattle's warmest on record too.

 

I know the "due" argument makes some members here start coughing up blood, we we certainly aren't due for a hot summer by any means.



#26
snow_wizard

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:26 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Wasn't last summer pretty hot down that way?

 

It was Seattle's warmest on record too.

 

I know the "due" argument makes some members here start coughing up blood, we we certainly aren't due for a hot summer by any means.

 

That hottest summer on record for Seattle is bogus IMO.  Collectively for the Puget Sound area it ended up 3rd or 4th which still seems odd since it was never that hot.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#27
snow_wizard

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:30 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

As for this summer if we have a major Nino unfold like the one in 2009 I wouldn't rule out a hot one.  On the other had there have been many cool El Nino summers.

 

I think we will probably have a good idea of whether this potential Nino will emerge when the Kelvin wave surfaces in a month or so.  It may surface and collapse due to abnormally strong trade winds.  There is hope that could happen.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#28
Jesse

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:30 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

That hottest summer on record for Seattle is bogus IMO.  Collectively for the Puget Sound area it ended up 3rd or 4th which still seems odd since it was never that hot.

 

I actually agree. It was certainly a consistently warm summer, though. We are by no means due for that.

 

I would be ok with a summer with a couple big heat spikes but cooler than average weather overall.



#29
Utrex

Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:37 PM

Utrex

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 87 posts
  • LocationNorth California-Sacramento Valley
Technically NorCal is considered PNW, so…


We need an El Niño here in NorCal. This is the worst drought in history. Every drop donation would help. Rainy season is at an end in 24 days, and I'm scared thinking of California by the time the El Niño hits.
  • Dan the Weatherman likes this

#30
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:04 PM

Dan the Weatherman

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1279 posts
  • LocationOrange, CA

Technically NorCal is considered PNW, so…


We need an El Niño here in NorCal. This is the worst drought in history. Every drop donation would help. Rainy season is at an end in 24 days, and I'm scared thinking of California by the time the El Niño hits.

 

The last thing in the world we need is another ENSO neutral year or a very weak La Nina or very weak El Nino. We would almost certainly face another drought year here in California without a strong ENSO event, especially if we still have a -PDO, +AMO pattern going into next season. In summary, this potential El Nino had not better fail for any reason.



#31
snow_wizard

Posted 07 March 2014 - 11:24 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

The last thing in the world we need is another ENSO neutral year or a very weak La Nina or very weak El Nino. We would almost certainly face another drought year here in California without a strong ENSO event, especially if we still have a -PDO, +AMO pattern going into next season. In summary, this potential El Nino had not better fail for any reason.

 

 

The odds are in your favor.  If we have a Nino I hope it's a big one so the pattern can reset and set us up for a Nina in 2015-16.  I would hate to see a half hearted Nino and then end up with two Nino winters in a row.

 

It would take some fancy maneuvering to avoid a Nino at this point, but Mother Nature has been pretty anti El Nino in recent years.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#32
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:20 AM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

If we do go into a weak to moderate El Nino, I'm not sure there is a connection in the weather the year it starts. We would have a mild winter next year (there is about a 6 month lag in the maximum effect in the NW climate)...that is mild as a whole though.  I have seen good early winter Nino periods (late October thru early Dec as the wavelength of the long wave ridges is shorter).  Jan 1998 also saw a brief arctic air mass invade the nw (though it was very brief). Nina years following El Ninos tend to be cooler than average with a bunch of snow for the mountains ... but not necessarily lowland snow as the flow tends to be zonal.

 

Believe it or not, the best winters are ones like we just had (lots of blocking just offshore in neutral years).  The Seattle area just got unlucky this year (and Portland to Eugene got lucky). We did have several arctic fronts get into the Pacific NW.



#33
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:21 AM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

For the folks in CA, Ninos are fickle.  They can be wet -- or not.



#34
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:29 AM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.


  • Perturbance likes this

#35
Jesse

Posted 08 March 2014 - 09:44 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')
Fantastic comments this morning, jaya. I love reading your stuff.

#36
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 08 March 2014 - 11:30 AM

Timmy_Supercell

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1039 posts
  • LocationKlamath Falls, Oregon (4,320 ft.)

I'm surprised you didn't ask about implications for our summer.

 

I would definitely be ok with a cooler summer than last year, especially late summer.

 

It will be a cooler summer this year, most of the PNW had one of the hottest summers in 2013, likely won't average nearly as warm. A few locations like Medford and Roseburg had the record hottest even.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 2 (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#37
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 08 March 2014 - 12:42 PM

Dan the Weatherman

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1279 posts
  • LocationOrange, CA

It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.

 

You are right about most El Ninos developing in the summer and fall rather than spring. I believe the very strong 1997-98 El Nino began to develop in the spring, but then strengthened dramatically throughout the summer and peaked in the late fall as most episodes do. If it did develop too early and became strong before summer, then I would be concerned about it possibly fizzling out before next winter.



#38
weather girl

Posted 08 March 2014 - 03:58 PM

weather girl

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 26 posts
  • LocationSalem, Oregon - 500 feet
I guess we did have a few legit heat waves, but I thought they kind of under performed. I wouldn't say it was cool, but generally, it wasn't so bad. I'm always for a cool summer, though.

It's been hard for a good, strong El Nino to take off. I thought it was the PDO cycle maybe holding things up??? This could be the year. Jim's the expert. :-)

#39
snow_wizard

Posted 08 March 2014 - 05:47 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10631 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.

 

Usually strong El Ninos get going pretty early.  I think the way this Kelvin wave plays out will have to say about our prospects.  The ball is clearly in El Nino's court but the atmosphere appears it will be more Nina like later this month.  It will be a matter of whether the atmosphere is Ninaish when the Kelvin wave surfaces.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#40
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:18 PM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

The CPC discussion contains two forecasts for Enso later this year - one from IRI and the other from the CFS-2 http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf . Really like the forecast for a weak to moderate El Nino peaking late summer or early fall given the total heat content of the Pac (moderate) and the gradual transfer of energy eastward in the Kelvin waves.  We have to have one sooner or later...we are in the zone to get one-especially with the look of the Kelvin wave activity in the Pacific, the rather significant westerly wind bursts, and the gradual basin wide warming.   If the models are correct (remember the spring barrier mentioned above), It looks to me that this year in the NW could be similar to what we saw in 2006 or 2009 (not the big one of 97-98). Speculation on my part would be (a normal to warmer than normal and normally dry summer, an active start to fall in late Oct-right after Thanksgiving, with maybe some local PSCZ zone (marginal and not widespread) snow and good mountain snow early, then a very mild and boring mid winter period from the first or second week of Dec thru the first half of Feb or longer).  I give this forecast based on what happened during the weak to moderate El Nino s we saw in 06 and 09. This accounts for the -PDO we are likely in. A mild, cloudy, drizzly winter with high snow levels and a continuous stream of splitting fronts with ridging somewhere in the NW.  

 

Interesting things to talk about in an El Nino in the NW...big waves on the coast (some of the biggest are swell from decaying systems as they split on the west coast), not a lot of snow below 3500 to 4000 ft in the mtns, and if I remember correctly - some nice 50+ weather days in the mid winter with low power bills!  (Glass half full --- huh!) 


  • Chris likes this

#41
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:22 PM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

I forgot to mention that I have seen some studies (not sure if they are published at this time) that indicate that there is a 6 to 8 month lag time between the peak Nino 3.5 temps and the atmospheric response along the west coast. This would account for the warmer mid-late winter periods in the NW during El Nino years and the best chance for mid to late winter rains in the south and SW as a strong Aleutian low develops in the mean and the jet axis shifts down into the sw. (The active area of the jet can be se of southern CA though .. leaving them still in the dry - hence the bimodal impact of El Nino on southern CA rainfall).



#42
jaya

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:23 PM

jaya

    Forum Member

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts
  • LocationEverett WA

Sorry, typo in previous post - that should be Nino 3.4 not 3.5 (no such thing).



#43
Utrex

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:27 PM

Utrex

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 87 posts
  • LocationNorth California-Sacramento Valley
I think the reason why some El Niños gave below-normal precipitation to California was because of the location of the warm waters. If the waters near So. America are slightly [cooler]* compared to the rest of the equatorial Niño waters then the U.S. west coast will instead receive more high-pressure than low-pressure systems. This can happen if warm waters were pushed to So. America due to strong wind bursts, but the waters dangled back and forth between the So. American coast and the El Niño 3.4 region. However, if warm waters are jammed far in, such as the El Niño of '97-'98, then the West Coast will experience above-normal precipitation.

#44
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:31 PM

Dan the Weatherman

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1279 posts
  • LocationOrange, CA

I forgot to mention that I have seen some studies (not sure if they are published at this time) that indicate that there is a 6 to 8 month lag time between the peak Nino 3.5 temps and the atmospheric response along the west coast. This would account for the warmer mid-late winter periods in the NW during El Nino years and the best chance for mid to late winter rains in the south and SW as a strong Aleutian low develops in the mean and the jet axis shifts down into the sw. (The active area of the jet can be se of southern CA though .. leaving them still in the dry - hence the bimodal impact of El Nino on southern CA rainfall).

 

Are you thinking that the jet will be SE of Socal in this possible El Nino, and how far to the SE and where if that is the case? 

 

What exactly do you mean by the bimodal impact, and what two modes are there? I am just curious, and do realize that some El Ninos are wet for Socal, while others aren't. For example 2006-07 was a moderate El Nino, but Los Angeles had its driest year on record, and I am wondering why it was so dry at that time.



#45
Utrex

Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:46 PM

Utrex

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 87 posts
  • LocationNorth California-Sacramento Valley
That warm, convective basin in the Western Pacific is actually pushing east… saw a lapse of Jan. 1 '14 all the way to today, and it pushed east. It seems like that pool is on the move, and by summer it should arrive on its spot within the El Niño 3.4 and 3.5.

#46
Jesse

Posted 08 March 2014 - 11:47 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

The CPC discussion contains two forecasts for Enso later this year - one from IRI and the other from the CFS-2 http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf . Really like the forecast for a weak to moderate El Nino peaking late summer or early fall given the total heat content of the Pac (moderate) and the gradual transfer of energy eastward in the Kelvin waves.  We have to have one sooner or later...we are in the zone to get one-especially with the look of the Kelvin wave activity in the Pacific, the rather significant westerly wind bursts, and the gradual basin wide warming.   If the models are correct (remember the spring barrier mentioned above), It looks to me that this year in the NW could be similar to what we saw in 2006 or 2009 (not the big one of 97-98). Speculation on my part would be (a normal to warmer than normal and normally dry summer, an active start to fall in late Oct-right after Thanksgiving, with maybe some local PSCZ zone (marginal and not widespread) snow and good mountain snow early, then a very mild and boring mid winter period from the first or second week of Dec thru the first half of Feb or longer).  I give this forecast based on what happened during the weak to moderate El Nino s we saw in 06 and 09. This accounts for the -PDO we are likely in. A mild, cloudy, drizzly winter with high snow levels and a continuous stream of splitting fronts with ridging somewhere in the NW.  

 

Interesting things to talk about in an El Nino in the NW...big waves on the coast (some of the biggest are swell from decaying systems as they split on the west coast), not a lot of snow below 3500 to 4000 ft in the mtns, and if I remember correctly - some nice 50+ weather days in the mid winter with low power bills!  (Glass half full --- huh!) 

 

Seems like a strange forecast in that case. December 2009 was one of Portland's coldest on record. The entire month was pretty fun (although granted the rest of the winter was very bland) The winter of 2006-07 was extremely active throughout, with a late-November arctic blast, a major windstorm in mid-December, and then a chilly, active January with another arctic blast and lowland snow.

 

It's always amazed me how your run of the mill forum dwelling weather geek can have a better memory for this stuff than an actual NWS employee.



#47
Jesse

Posted 08 March 2014 - 11:55 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15035 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Are you thinking that the jet will be SE of Socal in this possible El Nino, and how far to the SE and where if that is the case? 

 

What exactly do you mean by the bimodal impact, and what two modes are there? I am just curious, and do realize that some El Ninos are wet for Socal, while others aren't. For example 2006-07 was a moderate El Nino, but Los Angeles had its driest year on record, and I am wondering why it was so dry at that time.

 

California is going to dry up and blow away within five years. Deal with it.



#48
Deweydog

Posted 09 March 2014 - 12:04 AM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11533 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA

California is going to dry up and blow away within five years. Deal with it.

 

Cool guy.


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#49
Snowman Josh

Posted 09 March 2014 - 12:21 AM

Snowman Josh

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 99 posts
Zonal flows are always variable and could easily give a wet winter in weak el ninos
  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

#50
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:31 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11971 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
The subsurface "warmth" is a product of downwelling/westerly momentum..and in reality, those "warm" subsurface waters are significantly *colder* than the SSTs. Subsurface waters upwell to the surface on the trailing portion of kelvin waves..and will show up as "cold" SSTs..despite having been warmer than average at depth.

I don't know why so much attention is paid to the subsurface..it is irrelevant as this stage. People see warm subsurface anomalies and think there's a mass of hot water itching to hit the surface..

Variations in subsurface temperatures are forced by surface winds/large scale circulation. Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) force Kelvin Waves, and they can be predicted well in advance when using the proper forecasting methods. There has been a great outpouring of research into Solar and the QBO as governors to the dominant tropical circulation/MJO bias over 10-30 month intervals. Some of the newer peer reviewed research has successfully predicted ENSO out 2-3 years with these methods. Soon it will be realized that ENSO is externally forced by the Sun, and QBO/SAO. This is why our dynamic modeling of ENSO is so piss-poor. When statistical modeling stomps dynamical modeling on a regular basis, you know that you have your governing physics wrong. Statistical models only work when there is at least a minor, semi-predictable harmonic to ENSO behavior..suggesting that the forcing(s) are also harmonic in nature..aka specific, not chaotic and internal to the system..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"