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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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#51
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:54 AM

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Here's a great animation depicting a resonant forcing..in this case, we're looking at the QBO from 1960-1999:

http://sandrolubis.f...2012/08/qbo.gif

Notice the angular momentum shifts in the extratropics/mid latitudes as the QBO collapses and changes phase...also notice how the QBO tends to govern the upper level PVs and some tendencies in the Rossby wave train..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#52
richard mann

Posted 09 March 2014 - 03:25 AM

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California is going to dry up and blow away within five years. Deal with it.

 
...


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#53
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 04:29 AM

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For the folks in CA, Ninos are fickle. They can be wet -- or not.


Often time it depends on the type of El Niño:

http://www.jamstec.g..._home_s.html.en

El Niño Modoki, aka the "half-way" Niño, is often times not very friendly.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#54
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 05:45 AM

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For those not interested in analyzing the stratosphere/mesosphere/solar forcings to find the precursor, I strongly recommend this paper...a bit dated, but very valid: http://journals.amet.../2008JCLI2691.1
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#55
jaya

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:41 PM

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Are you thinking that the jet will be SE of Socal in this possible El Nino, and how far to the SE and where if that is the case? 

 

What exactly do you mean by the bimodal impact, and what two modes are there? I am just curious, and do realize that some El Ninos are wet for Socal, while others aren't. For example 2006-07 was a moderate El Nino, but Los Angeles had its driest year on record, and I am wondering why it was so dry at that time.

Yeah, I meant some are wet and some are dry...



#56
jaya

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:47 PM

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Seems like a strange forecast in that case. December 2009 was one of Portland's coldest on record. The entire month was pretty fun (although granted the rest of the winter was very bland) The winter of 2006-07 was extremely active throughout, with a late-November arctic blast, a major windstorm in mid-December, and then a chilly, active January with another arctic blast and lowland snow.

 

It's always amazed me how your run of the mill forum dwelling weather geek can have a better memory for this stuff than an actual NWS employee.

Dec can be on the edge.  09 cold and dry that just went mild.  Early arctics are not out of the question with an El Nino.  Jan 2010 had no arctic in Seattle... http://www.nws.noaa....ate.php?wfo=sew .  Nor did Feb.  So, was the last comment necessary??? 


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#57
jaya

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:52 PM

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The subsurface "warmth" is a product of downwelling/westerly momentum..and in reality, those "warm" subsurface waters are significantly *colder* than the SSTs. Subsurface waters upwell to the surface on the trailing portion of kelvin waves..and will show up as "cold" SSTs..despite having been warmer than average at depth.

I don't know why so much attention is paid to the subsurface..it is irrelevant as this stage. People see warm subsurface anomalies and think there's a mass of hot water itching to hit the surface..

Variations in subsurface temperatures are forced by surface winds/large scale circulation. Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) force Kelvin Waves, and they can be predicted well in advance when using the proper forecasting methods. There has been a great outpouring of research into Solar and the QBO as governors to the dominant tropical circulation/MJO bias over 10-30 month intervals. Some of the newer peer reviewed research has successfully predicted ENSO out 2-3 years with these methods. Soon it will be realized that ENSO is externally forced by the Sun, and QBO/SAO. This is why our dynamic modeling of ENSO is so piss-poor. When statistical modeling stomps dynamical modeling on a regular basis, you know that you have your governing physics wrong. Statistical models only work when there is at least a minor, semi-predictable harmonic to ENSO behavior..suggesting that the forcing(s) are also harmonic in nature..aka specific, not chaotic and internal to the system..

When you upwell water with a deep thermocline, upwelling is much less effective than upwelling with a shallow thermocline. The thermocline depth in the east Pacific is typically quite shallow, and during El Ninos when the subsurface is warm, is deep.  That is why the SSTs are colder than normal. 

 

The actually SSTs are important to convection - and the convection influences the position and strength of the jet to its north.  So you are right on that account.  But anomalies with depth paint a big picture when it comes to the Kelvin waves and the eventual surface anomalies. When they are even a bit above normal, the convection will shift east influencing the northern hemispheric circulation (and global) circulation patterns (Walker cell positions).



#58
jaya

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:55 PM

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Seems like a strange forecast in that case. December 2009 was one of Portland's coldest on record. The entire month was pretty fun (although granted the rest of the winter was very bland) The winter of 2006-07 was extremely active throughout, with a late-November arctic blast, a major windstorm in mid-December, and then a chilly, active January with another arctic blast and lowland snow.

 

It's always amazed me how your run of the mill forum dwelling weather geek can have a better memory for this stuff than an actual NWS employee.

 

 

El Nino in 2006 was early and weak.  http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm .  We could head into that if the current developing one comes and goes quickly like that one did.



#59
Jesse

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:56 PM

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Dec can be on the edge.  09 cold and dry that just went mild.  Early arctics are not out of the question with an El Nino.  Jan 2010 had no arctic in Seattle... http://www.nws.noaa....ate.php?wfo=sew .  Nor did Feb.  So, was the last comment necessary??? 

 

The winter of 2006-07 which you said you were, in part, basing your forecast on, was very active throughout, with widespread lowland snow and arctic air in both November and January.



#60
Jesse

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:57 PM

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El Nino in 2006 was early and weak.  http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm .  We could head into that if the current developing one comes and goes quickly like that one did.

 

I see. Thank you for elucidating. :)



#61
jaya

Posted 09 March 2014 - 02:59 PM

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The subsurface "warmth" is a product of downwelling/westerly momentum..and in reality, those "warm" subsurface waters are significantly *colder* than the SSTs. Subsurface waters upwell to the surface on the trailing portion of kelvin waves..and will show up as "cold" SSTs..despite having been warmer than average at depth.

I don't know why so much attention is paid to the subsurface..it is irrelevant as this stage. People see warm subsurface anomalies and think there's a mass of hot water itching to hit the surface..

Variations in subsurface temperatures are forced by surface winds/large scale circulation. Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) force Kelvin Waves, and they can be predicted well in advance when using the proper forecasting methods. There has been a great outpouring of research into Solar and the QBO as governors to the dominant tropical circulation/MJO bias over 10-30 month intervals. Some of the newer peer reviewed research has successfully predicted ENSO out 2-3 years with these methods. Soon it will be realized that ENSO is externally forced by the Sun, and QBO/SAO. This is why our dynamic modeling of ENSO is so piss-poor. When statistical modeling stomps dynamical modeling on a regular basis, you know that you have your governing physics wrong. Statistical models only work when there is at least a minor, semi-predictable harmonic to ENSO behavior..suggesting that the forcing(s) are also harmonic in nature..aka specific, not chaotic and internal to the system..

 

I agree that solar appears to be a factor in the forcing.  Models are rather simple by nature and represent a simplistic understanding and approximation as to what is going on.  I am amazed at how tied to them we are sometimes - especially when it comes to climate (long and short term) prediction.  Hard to get the day-to-day weather right.  I know of no models that take solar into account.  This is a good book, check it out if you haven't already.   http://www.amazon.co...e/dp/1840468661


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#62
Jesse

Posted 09 March 2014 - 05:30 PM

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I agree that solar appears to be a factor in the forcing.  Models are rather simple by nature and represent a simplistic understanding and approximation as to what is going on.  I am amazed at how tied to them we are sometimes - especially when it comes to climate (long and short term) prediction.  Hard to get the day-to-day weather right.  I know of no models that take solar into account.  This is a good book, check it out if you haven't already.   http://www.amazon.co...e/dp/1840468661

 

Great post jaya! :)



#63
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:00 PM

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When you upwell water with a deep thermocline, upwelling is much less effective than upwelling with a shallow thermocline. The thermocline depth in the east Pacific is typically quite shallow, and during El Ninos when the subsurface is warm, is deep. That is why the SSTs are colder than normal.

Thanks, appreciate the reply. :)

I agree it takes longer, but we saw it happen as recently as 2011. The subsurface was very similar to where it is today, and people were calling for a super-Niño even in the peer reviewed literature, totally glossing over the forcing mechanisms behind the WWB/KW events, and why they would cease and fail to preserve the Niño-thermocline.

The Walker Cell eventually migrated west, and we ended up falling back into a moderate La Niña within 13 weeks, and I personally couldn't understand the logic behind Hansen et al.


The actually SSTs are important to convection - and the convection influences the position and strength of the jet to its north. So you are right on that account. But anomalies with depth paint a big picture when it comes to the Kelvin waves and the eventual surface anomalies. When they are even a bit above normal, the convection will shift east influencing the northern hemispheric circulation (and global) circulation patterns (Walker cell positions).

Agree that topical SSTs significantly influence the Walker/Hadley cells, no question. But wouldn't you agree that the tropical circulations precede ENSO by a detectable margin, and are affected by more than just SSTs? Before a Niño, the Walker Cell migrates eastward (as it has been doing for 1yr now). WWB/KW activity increases as it migrates, increasing warmer SSTs/uplift farther and farther east, etc.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#64
snow_wizard

Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:49 PM

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I will be very surprised if we don't have a significant Nino going into next winter. This looks a lot more ominous to me than 2012 did. It looked fairly hopeful for a significant MJO wave to eventually move into octants 1, 2, and 3 several days ago, but that is looking less likely now. Current progs keep the SOI quite low for at least the next 2 weeks. While the skill on surface pressure predictions in the tropics is far from stellar, I'm just not liking what I'm seeing.

I'm all in for a Nino developing this year. I am usually right when it comes to ENSO. I was one of the few that predicted the quick demise of the 2012 event. In retrospect I wish that Nino had gone full blown to get it out of its system.

Looking very possible this area will end up with 3 loser winters in row for snowfall. What a ******* joke this climate is.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#65
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:49 PM

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I'm all in for a Nino developing this year. I am usually right when it comes to ENSO. I was one of the few that predicted the quick demise of the 2012 event. In retrospect I wish that Nino had gone full blown to get it out of its system.


Sorry to sound like a d**chebag, but please give credit where credit is due...I've busted my butt in research, and given the fact that I had these predictions out years before you, I'd like some credit. Sometimes I get the sense that you feed off me.

I predicted the demise of the 2012-13 event over 1 year in advance, as well as the current (temporary) drop into La Niña conditions.

I've also been predicting the weak-to-moderate 2014-15 El Niño since July 2012. I worked hard on my prediction, while you were against the idea of a Niño as recently as a month ago. No offense intended, just feel the need to clear this up.

Looking very possible this area will end up with 3 loser winters in row for snowfall. What a ******* joke this climate is.


Then you jump to this nonsense? Winter 2014-15 could easily be another 1967-68. Don't let your emotions dictate your forecasting.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#66
snow_wizard

Posted 09 March 2014 - 11:25 PM

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Sorry to sound like a d**chebag, but please give credit where credit is due...I've busted my butt in research, and given the fact that I had these predictions out years before you, I'd like some credit. Sometimes I get the sense that you feed off me.

I predicted the demise of the 2012-13 event over 1 year in advance, as well as the current (temporary) drop into La Niña conditions.

I've also been predicting the weak-to-moderate 2014-15 El Niño since July 2012. I worked hard on my prediction, while you were against the idea of a Niño as recently as a month ago. No offense intended, just feel the need to clear this up.


Then you jump to this nonsense? Winter 2014-15 could easily be another 1967-68. Don't let your emotions dictate your forecasting.


I'm well aware that you did a great job with the 2012 Nino. I have a different way of forecasting ENSO than you do and this is totally my own reasoning. A month ago I still thought a Nino was more likely than not, but I saw some chance we could escape it. Not now.

1967-68 was actually a La Nina, and was a so so winter for the Seattle area. You may have meant 1968-69 though. Give me any reason to expect we should have a good outcome next winter. We haven't been able to buy a region wide great winter here for ages even though other parts of the country have been easily scoring huge minus anomaly winters in recent years. I'm pretty much done with this area and am counting the days until I can leave here. It's to the point where I could care less if the Seattle area has an amazing winter the year after I leave, because I'll still be in this state and it will be great there too. It's just not worth the pain anymore.

When I live somewhere that cold and snow are a given I will be able to forecast the weather in the Puget Sound region with no emotion and I will probably be very effective.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#67
Phil

Posted 09 March 2014 - 11:37 PM

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Thanks, yep I meant 1968-69. I'm sorry if I came off in a negative manner.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#68
snow_wizard

Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:01 AM

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Thanks, yep I meant 1968-69. I'm sorry if I came off in a negative manner.


No problem. I know I'm being pissy right now, but I think I've earned it after suffering through so many disappointing years here. As I've told the younger people on here before. It's not going to get any better here. If you want snowier winters...move before this place steals your soul.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#69
Brennan

Posted 10 March 2014 - 08:01 AM

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No problem. I know I'm being pissy right now, but I think I've earned it after suffering through so many disappointing years here. As I've told the younger people on here before. It's not going to get any better here. If you want snowier winters...move before this place steals your soul.

Overall since 2002, Whatcom County has done very well. This is for my location on the W side of Lake Whatcom, 3 miles from the N end of the lake.  

 

2001-2002- 25 inches

2002-2003- 2 inches

2003-2004- 8 inches

2004-2005- 7 inches

2005-2006- 5 inches

2006-2007- 23 inches

2007-2008- 8 inches (4 in Mar/Apr)

2008-2009- 35 inches

2009-2010- 1 inch

2010-2011- 12 inches

2011-2012- 13 inches

2012-2013-  0 inches

2013-2014- 15 inches

 

I think this location is probably in the middle of the pack when talking about snowfall totals in Whatcom County. I’m sure you would be very happy in Lynden, especially if this pattern of snowfall continues. Compared to Covington and Seattle, Bellingham has obliterated them in the snowfall department. 



#70
Jesse

Posted 10 March 2014 - 08:09 AM

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No problem. I know I'm being pissy right now, but I think I've earned it after suffering through so many disappointing years here. As I've told the younger people on here before. It's not going to get any better here. If you want snowier winters...move before this place steals your soul.


I think you're being kind of a homer. It was a pretty d**n good winter for the majority of the west side. From Medford to Bellingham. As I keep saying, it was only a stretch from about Toledo to Arlington that got left out of the snow fun.

#71
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 March 2014 - 03:41 PM

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I think you're being kind of a homer. It was a pretty D**n good winter for the majority of the west side. From Medford to Bellingham. As I keep saying, it was only a stretch from about Toledo to Arlington that got left out of the snow fun.

 

From 1000'-3000' there wasn't much snow either. But I'm not on here bitching my a** off about it 24/7. I bought some flowers for my wife to plant in the yard today, the bulbs I planted last fall are coming up, I am embracing life.


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#72
snow_wizard

Posted 10 March 2014 - 04:40 PM

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Overall since 2002, Whatcom County has done very well. This is for my location on the W side of Lake Whatcom, 3 miles from the N end of the lake.  
 
2001-2002- 25 inches
2002-2003- 2 inches
2003-2004- 8 inches
2004-2005- 7 inches
2005-2006- 5 inches
2006-2007- 23 inches
2007-2008- 8 inches (4 in Mar/Apr)
2008-2009- 35 inches
2009-2010- 1 inch
2010-2011- 12 inches
2011-2012- 13 inches
2012-2013-  0 inches
2013-2014- 15 inches
 
I think this location is probably in the middle of the pack when talking about snowfall totals in Whatcom County. I’m sure you would be very happy in Lynden, especially if this pattern of snowfall continues. Compared to Covington and Seattle, Bellingham has obliterated them in the snowfall department.


I know the north county did much better in 2007-08 than Bellingham did also.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#73
snow_wizard

Posted 10 March 2014 - 04:41 PM

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I think you're being kind of a homer. It was a pretty D**n good winter for the majority of the west side. From Medford to Bellingham. As I keep saying, it was only a stretch from about Toledo to Arlington that got left out of the snow fun.


I guess that's kind of the point. Sometimes just fine details ruin what should be a great winter. I'm tired of waiting. Nothing more...nothing less.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#74
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 March 2014 - 09:06 PM

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Overall since 2002, Whatcom County has done very well. This is for my location on the W side of Lake Whatcom, 3 miles from the N end of the lake.  

 

2001-2002- 25 inches

2002-2003- 2 inches

2003-2004- 8 inches

2004-2005- 7 inches

2005-2006- 5 inches

2006-2007- 23 inches

2007-2008- 8 inches (4 in Mar/Apr)

2008-2009- 35 inches

2009-2010- 1 inch

2010-2011- 12 inches

2011-2012- 13 inches

2012-2013-  0 inches

2013-2014- 15 inches

 

I think this location is probably in the middle of the pack when talking about snowfall totals in Whatcom County. I’m sure you would be very happy in Lynden, especially if this pattern of snowfall continues. Compared to Covington and Seattle, Bellingham has obliterated them in the snowfall department. 

 

March 2012 did better than all those years here. ;)


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#75
BLI snowman

Posted 10 March 2014 - 11:07 PM

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March 2012 did better than all those years here. ;)

 

Whatcom County is better for arctic airmasses than your location. Obviously your elevation helps you, but there are plenty of foothill locations up here that do as well with snow.



#76
Brennan

Posted 11 March 2014 - 01:19 AM

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March 2012 did better than all those years here. ;)

You are comparing 1600 feet elevation to 312 feet elevation. 



#77
westcoastexpat

Posted 11 March 2014 - 04:16 AM

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Total season snowfall for my residence in South Surrey, BC since I've recorded there:

2007-2008: 22"
2008-2009: 36"
2009-2010: 2"
2010-2011: 14"
2011-2012: 7"
2012-2013: 8"
2013-2014: 20"

 

Historical snowfall average for my location: 20"

So, a bit below average the last 7 years at my locale.

 

I recall '06-'07 being similar to '07-'08; however, aside from maybe 1 storm or two, 2000-2006 was awful for snow.



#78
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 11 March 2014 - 06:21 AM

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You are comparing 1600 feet elevation to 312 feet elevation. 

 

Just saying those numbers all seem pretty pedestrian compared to places where it can really snow. If you are going to move somewhere for the snow, move somewhere with actual big snow potential. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#79
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 11 March 2014 - 06:25 AM

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Maybe Jim can rent a room from Tim in a few years when Tim's sons go away to college. ;)

 

Tim lives in a location that can get some pretty legit snow.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#80
TT-SEA

Posted 11 March 2014 - 06:52 AM

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Maybe Jim can rent a room from Tim in a few years when Tim's sons go away to college. ;)

 

Tim lives in a location that can get some pretty legit snow.

 

 

I was just thinking about all the space we will have in 5 years when the boys go to college!   

 

I remember something about snow here... but it seems so distant.    Like it was a dream.   I think it used to snow here.   



#81
TT-SEA

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:50 AM

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Finally a nice day here...

 

Untitled.jpg



#82
Jesse

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:56 AM

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Finally a nice day here...

Untitled.jpg


Great pic, but I think you're confusing this with the main March thread.

#83
TT-SEA

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:59 AM

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Great pic, but I think you're confusing this with the main March thread.

 

Yep... it appears that is what I did.

 

Not used to the monthly thread being so far down the list.  :)



#84
Jesse

Posted 11 March 2014 - 10:12 AM

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Yep... it appears that is what I did.

Not used to the monthly thread being so far down the list. :)


It's been throwing me off too.

#85
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 11 March 2014 - 10:28 AM

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I was just thinking about all the space we will have in 5 years when the boys go to college!   

 

I remember something about snow here... but it seems so distant.    Like it was a dream.   I think it used to snow here.   

 

I know seriously... Well I did have an 8" snow storm a month ago, so not to distant a dream. I had storm totals of 32, 20, 16, & 10" in the winter of 2011-12. The past two winters haven't really stacked up...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#86
weather girl

Posted 11 March 2014 - 08:11 PM

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Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.

#87
snow_wizard

Posted 11 March 2014 - 08:40 PM

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Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.


I can usually look at ENSO forecasts with less emotion than our winter forecasts. I'm pretty sure we will have a Nino. A big one would probably be best for us in the long run, although it will likely mean three horrible winters in row for snowfall here.

Apparently you didn't hear how the Puget Sound area got totally screwed for snowfall this winter compared to everywhere else from Eugene to Vancouver BC. The cold was pretty impressive at times, but that's about it here.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#88
TT-SEA

Posted 11 March 2014 - 08:50 PM

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I can usually look at ENSO forecasts with less emotion that our winter forecasts. I'm pretty sure we will have a Nino. A big one would probably be best for us in the long run, although it will likely mean three horrible winters in row for snowfall here.

Apparently you didn't hear how the Puget Sound area got totally screwed for snowfall this winter compared to everywhere else from Eugene to Vancouver BC. The cold was pretty impressive at times, but that's about it here.

 

 

Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.

 

If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    

 

You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       

 

Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:



#89
snow_wizard

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:00 PM

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Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.
 
If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    
 
You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       
 
Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:


I got a good laugh from that last sentence. :lol:

Sad it took me so long to realize I really do need to move. It's very obvious to me now that it has to happen. Much of the winter was dry and bright as you say, but the past month has been hideous. I think that is what finally sent me over the edge. I took the day off from work today (prearranged yesterday) so I could actually do something constructive outside today. That made me feel a lot better.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#90
TT-SEA

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:02 PM

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I got a good laugh from that last sentence. :lol:

Sad it took me so long to realize I really do need to move. It's very obvious to me now that it has to happen. Much of the winter was dry and bright as you say, but the past month has been hideous. I think that is what finally sent me over the edge. I took the day off from work today (prearranged yesterday) so I could actually do something constructive outside today. That made me feel a lot better.

 

Very smart idea about today.

 

I was working from home and felt guilty for spending time in the yard... but then thought that I really needed to be out there because its been so gloomy and its good for mental state to see the sun once in awhile!



#91
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 11 March 2014 - 09:21 PM

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The sun sure warmed my soul today. What a gorgeous day.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#92
Deweydog

Posted 11 March 2014 - 10:06 PM

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I bought a new pair of pants today.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#93
Brennan

Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:23 AM

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Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.

 

If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    

 

You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       

 

Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:

Being able to think back all spring and summer on that 36 hour period of snow will always put a smile on my face and force me to reminisce on how incredible it was to experience this year after such a long stretch of disappointment. Sure, 11 inches of snow isn’t much to write home about to a lot of people in this world, but we wait year in and year out for that one big event. And to some of us on here, it can change the entire complexion of our daily lives moving forward... It’s sort of like die-hard Seahawks fans and the Superbowl.   It doesn’t last forever, but it can be the difference for a little while. It’ll also make a loser winter next year more bearable. However, I think a MOD El Nino next year will yield just as good a shot at giving us as much or more snow than we had this year. Wouldn’t be hard to do for most places on Western Wa. 



#94
Brennan

Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:26 AM

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I bought a new pair of pants today.  

Levis? Bootcut or slim...



#95
BLI snowman

Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:41 AM

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Being able to think back all spring and summer on that 36 hour period of snow will always put a smile on my face and force me to reminisce on how incredible it was to experience this year after such a long stretch of disappointment. Sure, 11 inches of snow isn’t much to write home about to a lot of people in this world, but we wait year in and year out for that one big event. And to some of us on here, it can change the entire complexion of our daily lives moving forward... It’s sort of like die-hard Seahawks fans and the Superbowl.   It doesn’t last forever, but it can be the difference for a little while. It’ll also make a loser winter next year more bearable. However, I think a MOD El Nino next year will yield just as good a shot at giving us as much or more snow than we had this year. Wouldn’t be hard to do for most places on Western Wa. 

 

Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.



#96
Brennan

Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:54 AM

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Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.

I wouldn’t bet on it, but I’m not going to go into next winter with any less of a vision of a monster snowstorm than this year. 

Expect the unexpected. 



#97
Phil

Posted 12 March 2014 - 08:13 PM

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Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.


2006-07 and 1968-69 were both moderate, with a peak trimonthly ONI of 1.0+: http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#98
snow_wizard

Posted 16 March 2014 - 09:42 AM

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It appears we might have one more chance to do some real damage to the potentially developing El Nino. The subsurface Kelvin wave is about to surface at the same time we are entering a very Nina-ish MJO wave (octants 2 through 4). The graphic I'm posing is from what has been proven to be one of the best MJO forecast models. One other thing we have going for us is the SOI* (different than the SOI) which is progged to be rather high for the next two weeks as strong surface high pressure off the West Coast of South America takes hold. I think it will become apparent within the next few weeks just how serious of trouble we may be in as far as the possible El Nino is concerned.

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.gif   43.04KB   1 downloads

Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#99
Phil

Posted 16 March 2014 - 10:33 AM

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It appears we might have one more chance to do some real damage to the potentially developing El Nino. The subsurface Kelvin wave is about to surface at the same time we are entering a very Nina-ish MJO wave (octants 2 through 4). The graphic I'm posing is from what has been proven to be one of the best MJO forecast models. One other thing we have going for us is the SOI* (different than the SOI) which is progged to be rather high for the next two weeks as strong surface high pressure off the West Coast of South America takes hold. I think it will become apparent within the next few weeks just how serious of trouble we may be in as far as the possible El Nino is concerned.


We're almost certainly in for a Niño, but it'll end up as either weak or moderate. Top analog for 2014-15 is 1957-58, despite that one being a strong Niño.

ECMWF tries to push the Walker cell a bit farther east, hence: http://www.cpc.ncep....IVAR/ecmf.shtml
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#100
snow_wizard

Posted 16 March 2014 - 10:59 AM

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We're almost certainly in for a Niño, but it'll end up as either weak or moderate. Top analog for 2014-15 is 1957-58, despite that one being a strong Niño.

ECMWF tries to push the Walker cell a bit farther east, hence: http://www.cpc.ncep....IVAR/ecmf.shtml


Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16