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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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#101
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 March 2014 - 11:45 AM

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Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.

 

I wonder if it is these conflicting signals that may be at least in part contributing to the bad drought conditions in CA by any chance. It almost sounds to me as if things are offsetting each other in some sort of fashion and as a result we are getting nothing but repeats of warm dry weather here in Socal.



#102
Phil

Posted 16 March 2014 - 12:29 PM

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Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.


Things could change. The atmosphere/external forcings actually govern the oceans, though they both (oceans/atmosphere) work within the boundaries of one another, as a fully coupled system. Tropical SSTs are one of many factors that affect tropical convection/the Hadley Cells.

As the latest peer reviewed literature has found, ENSO can be fully explained via solar, geomagnetic, QBO, and SAO forcings, which seem to govern the tropical circulations/MJO period frequency, hence ENSO.

That method has worked very well for me.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#103
Phil

Posted 16 March 2014 - 12:33 PM

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I wonder if it is these conflicting signals that may be at least in part contributing to the bad drought conditions in CA by any chance. It almost sounds to me as if things are offsetting each other in some sort of fashion and as a result we are getting nothing but repeats of warm dry weather here in Socal.


If you think this is bad, research the two recent mega-droughts that affected the SW US. The last one occurred about 1000 years ago, with an even bigger one 2000yrs ago. These blow away anything witnessed in the modern era.

Notice, both of these droughts coincide with warm periods, hence poleward oriented Hadley Cells.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#104
Jesse

Posted 16 March 2014 - 02:03 PM

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If you think this is bad, research the two recent mega-droughts that affected the SW US. The last one occurred about 1000 years ago, with an even bigger one 2000yrs ago. These blow away anything witnessed in the modern era.

Notice, both of these droughts coincide with warm periods, hence poleward oriented Hadley Cells.


Well if we're going into a cool period, as you believe, he won't have to worry for much longer, right?

#105
Phil

Posted 16 March 2014 - 05:28 PM

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Well if we're going into a cool period, as you believe, he won't have to worry for much longer, right?


Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#106
snow_wizard

Posted 16 March 2014 - 05:33 PM

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Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.


Do you expect that situation to become worse or better as we decent into the solar grand minimum? I think your theory about the minimum meaning fewer El Ninos makes a lot of sense.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#107
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 March 2014 - 07:47 PM

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Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.

 

The Hadley Cells consist basically of the subtropical high pressure systems that reside around 30N as a result of the subsidence from the convection in the ITCZ. Is that correct? When the cells extend poleward, I am assuming that these subtropical highs are larger and much further north than normal, creating a pattern of dryness further north normally associated with that of the "horse latitudes" leading to the megadrought conditions in the SW.

 

Did you say above that the Hadley Cells would likely shrink and retract southward, allowing more storminess for CA, if we go into a grand solar minimum? I just wanted to make sure I read your post correctly.



#108
luminen

Posted 16 March 2014 - 09:58 PM

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http://theweathercen...orming.html?m=1



#109
snow_wizard

Posted 16 March 2014 - 10:01 PM

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http://theweathercen...orming.html?m=1


I'm not putting a lot of stock in traditional forecast methods and models on this. There will likely be surprises with this event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#110
weatherfan2012

Posted 17 March 2014 - 12:17 AM

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I'm not putting a lot of stock in traditional forecast methods and models on this. There will likely be surprises with this event.

I agree im not convinced we are headed for a super El nino I think moderate is a much better likey hood.

#111
Phil

Posted 17 March 2014 - 05:13 AM

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The Hadley Cells consist basically of the subtropical high pressure systems that reside around 30N as a result of the subsidence from the convection in the ITCZ. Is that correct? When the cells extend poleward, I am assuming that these subtropical highs are larger and much further north than normal, creating a pattern of dryness further north normally associated with that of the "horse latitudes" leading to the megadrought conditions in the SW.


Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude.

Did you say above that the Hadley Cells would likely shrink and retract southward, allowing more storminess for CA, if we go into a grand solar minimum? I just wanted to make sure I read your post correctly.


Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#112
Phil

Posted 17 March 2014 - 05:22 AM

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http://theweathercen...orming.html?m=1


The "super-Niño" hype continues..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#113
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 17 March 2014 - 03:52 PM

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Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude.


Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..

 

Thanks for clarifying! I will be looking forward to those changes in the future and hoping for drought relief in the state.



#114
snow_wizard

Posted 17 March 2014 - 07:29 PM

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Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude.


Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..


Do you think the stars will align for some good winters in the NW in that same time frame?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#115
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 17 March 2014 - 09:06 PM

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Do you think the stars will align for some good winters in the NW in that same time frame?

 

It sure would be nice to have a year in which CA could receive a decent amount of rain and snow while you all experience several cold spells with lowland snow in the PNW, so we can all have some weather we can enjoy at the same time.



#116
Phil

Posted 18 March 2014 - 05:26 AM

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Just for the record, it's true that the system is "ahead" of where it was during the Niño transitions of 1997, 2009, and 1982 at this time, and that we're steamrolling towards another Niño..

However, people have a habit of linear projection..and this will prove fatal for those predicting a super niño..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#117
Utrex

Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:32 PM

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The "super-Niño" hype continues..



The hype probably will continue until any "solid" proof is released. Still, there are some shocking comparisons to the 800mb zonal winds for the past 3 months, and for the same months (January, February, March). In addition, the subsurface pool of much warmer than usual waters is rapidly flowing east, and trying to push itself up to the surface as well. Almost seems like a replica to the pre-1997/98 El Niño environment…

#118
snow_wizard

Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:37 PM

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The hype probably will continue until any "solid" proof is released. Still, there are some shocking comparisons to the 800mb zonal winds for the past 3 months, and for the same months (January, February, March). In addition, the subsurface pool of much warmer than usual waters is rapidly flowing east, and trying to push itself up to the surface as well. Almost seems like a replica to the pre-1997/98 El Niño environment…


IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#119
Timmy

Posted 20 March 2014 - 03:27 PM

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Mark Nelsen just posted this. http://m.washingtonp...-super-el-nino/

#120
Phil

Posted 20 March 2014 - 06:34 PM

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The hype is getting out of control . Andrew Freedman is a stupid alarmist crank at heart, without a shred of knowledge in the realm of physics and systems science.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#121
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 20 March 2014 - 10:33 PM

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IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.

Even if we don't have an El Nino on par with 1997-98, I hope this attempt doesn't fizzle and we end up having another ENSO neutral year next year with a 5" season for Los Angeles and meager snows in the Sierras, or California is going to be in huge trouble drought-wise.



#122
Utrex

Posted 21 March 2014 - 09:26 PM

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IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.

 

 

I have heard the MJO won't give a large effect on the El Nino. 



#123
TheBigOne

Posted 21 March 2014 - 10:43 PM

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Seems to me in the last 10 years when we have a La Nina the atmosphere tries to act like an El Nino and when we have an El Nino the atmosphere behaves more like La Nina.    The atmosphere has gotten the confuzzles lately!

 

I bet however it will be close to a record one since the SST's have been unusually warm everywhere.



#124
TheBigOne

Posted 21 March 2014 - 10:49 PM

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Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.

Only four inches in downtown Silverton of curbside snow recorded.  The snow didn't even go past the curbline!   Not even enough to get the snow ploughs and gritters out till Saturday night!



#125
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 22 March 2014 - 11:45 AM

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Only four inches in downtown Silverton of curbside snow recorded.  The snow didn't even go past the curbline!   Not even enough to get the snow ploughs and gritters out till Saturday night!

 

It definitely snowed more than 4" in Silverton in February. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#126
TheBigOne

Posted 25 March 2014 - 09:11 PM

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What was the amount?    At our house is was about 6-7 inches and how come there wasn't any damage with the snow storm anywhere?   The power didn't even flicker and I was expecting power issues like with the ice storms we have had.  

 

I am actually surprised at the lack of tree damage the Feb storms gave as many trees had huge branches that were leaning.

 

About the Super Nino.   Is it weird to have it develop during the Spring instead of fall/winter?  Would that alter our summer into uncharted territory perhaps?



#127
snow_wizard

Posted 26 March 2014 - 04:59 PM

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What was the amount?    At our house is was about 6-7 inches and how come there wasn't any damage with the snow storm anywhere?   The power didn't even flicker and I was expecting power issues like with the ice storms we have had.  
 
I am actually surprised at the lack of tree damage the Feb storms gave as many trees had huge branches that were leaning.
 
About the Super Nino.   Is it weird to have it develop during the Spring instead of fall/winter?  Would that alter our summer into uncharted territory perhaps?


It's pretty normal for major Ninos to begin in the spring. I'm pretty suspicious of the suddenness of this though. I'm thinking it could be a very early peak event like 2012. There is already cold water showing up on the subsurface maps behind the Kelvin wave. The warm water is going to surface when the atmosphere is in an anti El Nino mode so I think a major Nino is unlikely.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#128
Phil

Posted 26 March 2014 - 06:32 PM

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Top QBO - Solar analogs for next winter are 1965-66 and 1968-69. There are some eerie similarities there.

The 1957-58 analog is beginning to look like a no-go after the recent easterly pulsing/lowering at the mesopause..which will precede a flip in the SAO, and QBO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#129
snow_wizard

Posted 26 March 2014 - 06:43 PM

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Top QBO - Solar analogs for next winter are 1965-66 and 1968-69. There are some eerie similarities there.

The 1957-58 analog is beginning to look like a no-go after the recent easterly pulsing/lowering at the mesopause..which will precede a flip in the SAO, and QBO.


Both of those were good El Nino winters here. I hesitate to be very hopeful about next winter though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#130
Phil

Posted 26 March 2014 - 06:45 PM

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Winters of 1965-66 and 1968-69 were very similar in terms of the QBO, SAO, Solar, ENSO, and AAM components. The winter of 2014-15 should feature all of the same dynamics. The only wild card is the Sun..if the Sun goes nuts it could ruin things.

However, the fact that they were very similar supplies a higher level of confidence that 2014-15 will follow in lockstep, at least to an extent..

Almost scary how similar they are..2014-15 could be a high confidence forecast:

1965-66:

NcrcvR.jpg

1968-69:

4Tu4Fj.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#131
Phil

Posted 26 March 2014 - 06:58 PM

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I'm trying to act subdued, but I'm actually bullish on 2014-15. People tend to weight ENSO much too heavily.

Arguably, solar and stratosphere-mesosphere forcings are just as important..take 2010-11 as an example. Strong La Niña with a very low TAAM..hence a lot of warm outlooks for the central/eastern US. However, the Solar-Stratospheric forcings won the day. The Sun totally finger banged the tropical pacific.

The 2013-14 winter is another good example...why was the Rossby/EAAM regime so stable? You guessed it. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#132
Guest_Monty67_*

Posted 26 March 2014 - 08:33 PM

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Winters of 1965-66 and 1968-69 were very similar in terms of the QBO, SAO, Solar, ENSO, and AAM components. The winter of 2014-15 should feature all of the same dynamics. The only wild card is the Sun..if the Sun goes nuts it could ruin things.

However, the fact that they were very similar supplies a higher level of confidence that 2014-15 will follow in lockstep, at least to an extent..

Almost scary how similar they are..2014-15 could be a high confidence forecast:

1965-66:

NcrcvR.jpg

1968-69:

4Tu4Fj.jpg


Both of those winters were massive snow years up here, 76" and 108" respectively.

#133
snow_wizard

Posted 26 March 2014 - 09:54 PM

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I'm trying to act subdued, but I'm actually bullish on 2014-15. People tend to weight ENSO much too heavily.

Arguably, solar and stratosphere-mesosphere forcings are just as important..take 2010-11 as an example. Strong La Niña with a very low TAAM..hence a lot of warm outlooks for the central/eastern US. However, the Solar-Stratospheric forcings won the day. The Sun totally finger banged the tropical pacific.

The 2013-14 winter is another good example...why was the Rossby/EAAM regime so stable? You guessed it. ;)


You do offer us some hope for next winter. I would think the sun should begin to drop off sharply later in the year, but that remains to be seen I guess. The all important AP index has been very low with this cycle in spite of the recent spike in sunspots.

I sure hope that at least one of my last few winters in this area will be decent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#134
weather girl

Posted 27 March 2014 - 12:01 PM

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You do offer us some hope for next winter. I would think the sun should begin to drop off sharply later in the year, but that remains to be seen I guess. The all important AP index has been very low with this cycle in spite of the recent spike in sunspots.I sure hope that at least one of my last few winters in this area will be decent.


You're going to move??? I guess it makes sense. Are you headed for the land of the frozen tundra?

#135
Phil

Posted 27 March 2014 - 06:16 PM

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You're going to move??? I guess it makes sense. Are you headed for the land of the frozen tundra?


He wants to move east of the Cascades but stay in WA. Though I think he'd enjoy Maine or Michigan more, as far as climate and home prices go..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#136
Jesse

Posted 27 March 2014 - 06:28 PM

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He wants to move east of the Cascades but stay in WA. Though I think he'd enjoy Maine or Michigan more, as far as climate and home prices go..


Aren't you the guy who was planning to move to Chelan? That's in Eastern WA.

#137
Phil

Posted 27 March 2014 - 07:06 PM

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Aren't you the guy who was planning to move to Chelan? That's in Eastern WA.


Yes, but I'm not Jim. :)

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#138
snow_wizard

Posted 27 March 2014 - 09:08 PM

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Yes, but I'm not Jim. :)

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.


I don't mind the dry heat too much. The climate in Central WA is pretty awesome overall. The nights are cool most of the time in the summer even when the days are hot. Spring is worlds better than it is here. I have grown to really hate spring around here. Endless gloom much of the time.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#139
Deweydog

Posted 28 March 2014 - 03:24 PM

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I don't mind the dry heat too much. The climate in Central WA is pretty awesome overall. The nights are cool most of the time in the summer even when the days are hot. Spring is worlds better than it is here. I have grown to really hate spring around here. Endless gloom much of the time.

 

Actually, you'd be surprised how easily things can get held up other there during heat patterns.  Lows typically bottom out really quickly around 5:00-6:00 and recover incredibly quickly.  It's not unusual to be up around 80 by 10:00 even on days that top out only in the 90's.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#140
snow_wizard

Posted 28 March 2014 - 05:46 PM

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Actually, you'd be surprised how easily things can get held up other there during heat patterns.  Lows typically bottom out really quickly around 5:00-6:00 and recover incredibly quickly.  It's not unusual to be up around 80 by 10:00 even on days that top out only in the 90's.


True. I'm sure there are a fair number of days each year that are too hot overall for my taste, but most of the year is pretty amazing. I did live between Cle Elum and Blewett Pass for a couple of years so I know the routine. I was lucky to be over there in 1981-82 which was a very solid winter. I do remember it being awfully hot in August 1981 though. That month was historic for number of 100+ days in Yakima if I recall.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#141
weather girl

Posted 28 March 2014 - 06:34 PM

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Yes, but I'm not Jim. :)
The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.
I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.


Harsh winters for sure---great if you're in for that sort of thing. It would totally work for Jim. I have no way of knowing, but I've heard Michigan summers are no picnic, though. Mostly due to the humidity, I think.

#142
Phil

Posted 28 March 2014 - 07:48 PM

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Harsh winters for sure---great if you're in for that sort of thing. It would totally work for Jim. I have no way of knowing, but I've heard Michigan summers are no picnic, though. Mostly due to the humidity, I think.


I think the city of Houghton MI would be a dream for Jim, ranked as one of the top 100 small towns in America: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

Trees are very much like the PNW, it's basically a peninsula that sticks out onto Lake Superior. The snowfall average is over 200" with frequent lake-effect blizzards, and the summer days rarely get past 75 degrees. Plus they get big thunderstorms in the Summer.

I've experienced lake effect snowfall, and I've gotta say, there's nothing like it. You can literally see snowfall rates topping 6"/hr on a semi regular basis.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#143
snow_wizard

Posted 28 March 2014 - 07:51 PM

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Agreed, that's why I think Jim would be happy there. I've been to Michigan in July..if you live on/near one of the Great Lakes, it's very crisp and comfortable..in fact it can be a full 20 degrees cooler on the lakeshore compared to 50 miles inland.

I think the city of Houghton MI would be a dream for Jim. Trees are very much like the PNW, it's basically a peninsula that sticks out onto Lake Superior. The snowfall average is over 200" with plentiful lake-effect blizzards, and the summer days rarely get past 75 degrees. Plus they get big thunderstorms in the Summer.


I've got to look at possibilities that are actually possible. Basically 10 months out of the year are perfect in Central WA.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#144
Phil

Posted 28 March 2014 - 07:56 PM

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I've got to look at possibilities that are actually possible. Basically 10 months out of the year are perfect in Central WA.

I getcha. Just don't be afraid to look out-of-region. I made the decision to go out-of-region in 1996 when I moved here, and I don't regret it...it was very fun.

Here's a link, if you want to give it a look: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

Home prices are great, too: http://m.realtor.com...loc=Houghton,MI
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#145
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 28 March 2014 - 07:57 PM

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They say there are two seasons in Houghton:  Winters here, and Winters coming.


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#146
Phil

Posted 28 March 2014 - 08:09 PM

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They say there are two seasons in Houghton: Winters here, and Winters coming.

I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com...ty=Eagle Harbor
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#147
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 29 March 2014 - 08:43 AM

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I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com...ty=Eagle Harbor

It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now. 

 

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does.  Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.



#148
snow_wizard

Posted 29 March 2014 - 09:40 AM

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It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now. 
 
I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does.  Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.


I think Leavenworth gets plenty of snow to satisfy just about anyone. Even an average of 40 or 50 inches a winter would be enough for me. Winthrop is the place that blows my mind. They only average 14 inches of water equivalent a year and yet have an average annual snowfall of 70 inches. Even more amazingly their normal depth on the ground for February is 19 inches. Epic for such a dry climate. I would bet only a tiny fraction of the country excluding high elevations has that kind of normal depth.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#149
snow_wizard

Posted 29 March 2014 - 09:41 AM

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I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com...ty=Eagle Harbor


That would be amazing to experience a winter there. Maybe too much of a good thing though. I also like dry summer very much which makes places east of the Rockies problematic.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#150
Phil

Posted 29 March 2014 - 01:05 PM

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It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now.

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does. Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.


Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol..


I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me:

"Climate
Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30]

While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31]

Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph