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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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#151
snow_wizard

Posted 29 March 2014 - 02:13 PM

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Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol..


I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me:

"Climate
Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30]



While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31]

Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."


The -26 extreme low is surprising. Many places in WA east of the Cascades have been colder than that. I'm sure the lake has much to do with that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#152
Phil

Posted 29 March 2014 - 05:42 PM

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The -26 extreme low is surprising. Many places in WA east of the Cascades have been colder than that. I'm sure the lake has much to do with that.


Yeah the lake buffers out the extremes in both seasons. Cooler summers as well.

#153
snow_wizard

Posted 29 March 2014 - 09:04 PM

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The moment of truth is pretty much upon us for seeing how the first attempt for an El Nino to develop is going to play out. The Kelvin wave is in the process of surfacing. The atmosphere is pretty unfavorable for El Nino development at this time so the major Kelvin wave could possibly fail to cause the degree of SST warming that some are expecting. The daily SOI readings have gone to zero in recent days and the MJO is about to enter octant 2 which is pretty bad news for El Ninos that are trying to develop. I still think some kind of a Nino is the most likely but we could easily avoid a major one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#154
jaya

Posted 01 April 2014 - 11:55 PM

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The moment of truth is pretty much upon us for seeing how the first attempt for an El Nino to develop is going to play out. The Kelvin wave is in the process of surfacing. The atmosphere is pretty unfavorable for El Nino development at this time so the major Kelvin wave could possibly fail to cause the degree of SST warming that some are expecting. The daily SOI readings have gone to zero in recent days and the MJO is about to enter octant 2 which is pretty bad news for El Ninos that are trying to develop. I still think some kind of a Nino is the most likely but we could easily avoid a major one.

 

Looking more and more like moderate El Nino is in store http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf . I think that there are some weak El Ninos that have wimped out quickly due to atmospheric circulation changes (2006-07 comes to mind), but the warm water shifting east will affect the atmospheric circulation as well (chicken and egg type of argument -nonlinear) changing the direction of the flow (sign of the SOI) and its strength.  The daily SOI should become quite negative once the warm water surfaces over the east central Pacific though it may go to zero or slightly positive at times. It may take a bit longer for the convection to shift too far eastward since we are moving into southern hemisphere winter.  Time scales in the ocean are longer than in the atmosphere, and once the convection does shift east - there the atmosphere will likely respond for a few months. 



#155
PRISM

Posted 02 April 2014 - 11:33 AM

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Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercen...erializing.html


P R I S M

#156
Phil

Posted 02 April 2014 - 03:06 PM

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Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

http://theweathercen...erializing.html

He says:

Ahead of the Kelvin Wave, we then see downwelling, which lowers sea levels and cools sea surface temperatures,


Since when does downwelling associated with a WWB cool SSTs? :huh:

Seems like a lot of folks forget that the subsurface waters are still generally colder than surface waters, and that a maintained series of WWBs is required to jump start a Niño..

#157
snow_wizard

Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:40 PM

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I still say something is fishy about how sudden the warm subsurface waters have emerged.  It looks increasingly possible this Nino will be an early peaker as there is already anomalous cold water spreading in behind the Kelvin wave.  The chances of this playing out like a 1980s or 1990s El Nino event are small IMO.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#158
snow_wizard

Posted 02 April 2014 - 11:04 PM

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Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercen...erializing.html

 

I think it's obvious that certain factions want a super Nino to make global temps spike.  The global warming agenda has stagnated due to lack of warming over the past 15 years or so.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#159
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 03 April 2014 - 12:37 AM

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I want to see an El Nino that is strong enough and peaks just at the right time to bring significant drought relief to CA and surrounding states. What I don't want to see is another ENSO neutral year like the last couple that brings a whopping season total of 5" to Los Angeles and paltry Sierra snowfall.



#160
Phil

Posted 03 April 2014 - 10:04 PM

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Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs..

We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present.

anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

#161
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 April 2014 - 10:42 PM

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[quote name="WeatherPhil" post="24213" timestamp="1396591467"]Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs..
We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present.anomnight.4.3.2014.gif[/ quote] it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few seasons. in fact I think the next 5 years is going to get very interesting as we progress out of our current sun max to the bottom.

#162
snow_wizard

Posted 10 April 2014 - 06:42 PM

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Uh oh...

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.png


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#163
TT-SEA

Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:19 PM

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Uh oh...

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

 

 

What does this mean??


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#164
Phil

Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:52 PM

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They're windfield anomalies, a derivation of the AAM scale. Blue = -AAM/easterlies. Visa versa to the red.

#165
TT-SEA

Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:59 PM

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They're windfield anomalies, a derivation of the AAM scale. Blue = -AAM/easterlies. Visa versa to the red.

 

 

No... what does it MEAN?

 

Nino getting stronger or failing?



#166
Phil

Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:24 PM

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No... what does it MEAN?

Nino getting stronger or failing?


Neither.

The thermocline is kind of taking a hit in the eastern regions but the typhoon off Australia is semi-coupled with the CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave), which could kick start another WWB in a week, around 180W, as it progresses east.

#167
TT-SEA

Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:40 PM

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Neither.

The thermocline is kind of taking a hit in the eastern regions but the typhoon off Australia is semi-coupled with the CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave), which could kick start another WWB in a week, around 180W, as it progresses east.

 

 

Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm as he has been known to display with anything bad for a Nino... or he thinks its bad news.



#168
Jesse

Posted 13 April 2014 - 12:28 PM

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Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm as he has been known to display with anything bad for a Nino... or he thinks its bad news.

 

Surprised no one ever responded to this post. I was curious too.



#169
Phil

Posted 13 April 2014 - 01:23 PM

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Surprised no one ever responded to this post. I was curious too.


I responded to Tim in a previous post. Jim is looking at a temporary resurgence of the easterlies east of Niño 4..the "uh oh" means "bad news for the Niño".

Of course, with the Walker Cell having migrated very far east, the fading of the +QBO-induced thermals at and above the tropical tropopause, plus a chaotic solar flux, the stage is set for a +AAM/El Niño response..however, the idea that we're in for a Super-Niño is irrational based on the specific disequilibrium we have going.

The Niño will be more basin-wide, rather than west based, but that alone can't push it strong. If you believe ENSO derives from an internal feedback loop, you'd be predicting a strong event right now. I expect a weak or moderate event, with two semi-distinct peaks.

#170
snow_wizard

Posted 13 April 2014 - 09:16 PM

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I responded to Tim in a previous post. Jim is looking at a temporary resurgence of the easterlies east of Niño 4..the "uh oh" means "bad news for the Niño".

Of course, with the Walker Cell having migrated very far east, the fading of the +QBO-induced thermals at and above the tropical tropopause, plus a chaotic solar flux, the stage is set for a +AAM/El Niño response..however, the idea that we're in for a Super-Niño is irrational based on the specific disequilibrium we have going.

The Niño will be more basin-wide, rather than west based, but that alone can't push it strong. If you believe ENSO derives from an internal feedback loop, you'd be predicting a strong event right now. I expect a weak or moderate event, with two semi-distinct peaks.

 

No...I was actually commenting on the possible WWB between 180 and 150E.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#171
Phil

Posted 13 April 2014 - 11:03 PM

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No...I was actually commenting on the possible WWB between 180 and 150E.


Huh? That's west even of Niño 4..and that won't kick start an oceanic KW either..there's already plenty of upwelling occurring in the WPAC attm..

#172
richard mann

Posted 14 April 2014 - 07:57 AM

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Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm ... or he thinks it[']s bad news.

 

.. one from the "Rolodex" Tim. ?  (It's a "good" one, certainly.) 


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#173
richard mann

Posted 14 April 2014 - 09:34 AM

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-
 
http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=24213
 
 

Strange configuration of warmer water in the ENSO region... seems centered unusually far north compared to a typical Nino.
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.4.10.2014.gif

 
A month previous. http://www.ospo.noaa...t.3.10.2014.gif
And more current. http://www.ospo.noaa...t.4.14.2014.gif
 
In my view the warming both just north of the equator, both central Pacific and more eastward, along with also otherwise that off Mexico and nearer to Hawaii extending SW (Difficult to know what you've meant with the way you've said what you have here above.) .. are all, in large part, the result of a gradually decreasing level of colder waters generated within the extreme Northern Pacific: -this with considering their greater circulation path from there more eastward, before turning south more to move down along the greater coast and then more westward at lower latitudes. — Much stronger (colder) from earlier last fall and through to about the middle of Feb. this year. And with this, even a more "negatively" registering PDO having been in effect through much of Oct. of 2013. 
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.10.3.2013.gif -...10.17.2013.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa...omaly/2013.html
 
Check the animation accessible here below to note this general circulation of colder Sea Surface waters, looked at more broadly. 

http://www.ospo.noaa...im_6mfull.html  -(.. takes a few moments to load in.)
 
In addition to the warming nearer to the equator, more narrow than the main and larger gyre related / connected to this basic circulation of colder water through the Eastern Pacific, this gradual decrease in and of cold entering into this system has also, otherwise apparently, worked to have allowed the relatively more warm watersnot part of this circulationto have both collected more tightly, and drifted more NNE.
 
Previous discussion, related more generally. http://theweatherfor...he-pnw/?p=24813


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#174
Utrex

Posted 16 April 2014 - 05:39 PM

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Today the trades pretty much died. That's good news for California.

#175
snow_wizard

Posted 16 April 2014 - 10:07 PM

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There are certainly signs this El Nino is going to be nothing special.  The subsurface profile shows anomalously cold water rapidly spreading eastward behind the subsurface Kelvin wave.  So far the sub surface warmth has done nothing to initiate a Nino thanks to unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Equatorial Pacific.  Trade wind forecasts suggest any westerly wind anomalies will be west of 150E which is decidedly unfavorable for any El Nino development. 

 

I think there's a chance there will be no El Nino at all by late summer.  The odds are still against that, but it can't be ruled out.


  • Jesse likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#176
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 April 2014 - 10:20 PM

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Today the trades pretty much died. That's good news for California.

 

I am really rooting for this El Nino to develop because we cannot afford to have another ENSO neutral or weak ENSO year this winter, or there will be water restrictions like we have never seen before if we have another ultra dry year like the past two.



#177
Phil

Posted 16 April 2014 - 11:03 PM

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There are certainly signs this El Nino is going to be nothing special. The subsurface profile shows anomalously cold water rapidly spreading eastward behind the subsurface Kelvin wave. So far the sub surface warmth has done nothing to initiate a Nino thanks to unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Equatorial Pacific. Trade wind forecasts suggest any westerly wind anomalies will be west of 150E which is decidedly unfavorable for any El Nino development.

I think there's a chance there will be no El Nino at all by late summer. The odds are still against that, but it can't be ruled out.


The Walker cell has migrated very far east...that coupled with the decaying +QBO windfield should unleash the MJO and force an El Niño. However, the super-niño talk is just catastrophist hype.

Here's what I wrote back in mid February:

We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014.

Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical Pacific. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time.

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.



#178
richard mann

Posted 17 April 2014 - 12:29 AM

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...... catastrophist hype.
 

 

 

May I quote you. ?


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#179
Phil

Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:00 AM

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May I quote you. ?


There's a difference between predictions based on evidence and peer reviewed science vs off the cuff super niño predictions.

A typical El Niño event will kill 5000-10,000 people in underdeveloped countries. The 1997-98 event killed over 25,000 people. Yes, El Niños kill people, and are catastrophic.

#180
richard mann

Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:15 AM

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-
 
.. Ah, Ha. (!)
 
 (Sarcasm Alert.)

Appreciate your having gone to the trouble to have worked (in this instance. ? Or should I say "incidence". ?) to connect the dots for me here above. (If probably, in my own estimation, more help to you than me.)
 
And I'll certainly be working to discern better, just when I might be encountering different "catastrophist", even "catastrophists'", "hype".  
 
And with this, also whatever "off the cuff" characterizations I might find, or suspect to havealong with, to the extent I'm able to, "people" who throw them around.
 
... So, it's the gravity then (?) that you've presumed, that I've called into question, even neglected, with my request above previously. (?) No "Phil". ... (Rather) The ease, with which "you", negatively characterize, views not your own, and where regarding whatever themes that you've attached yours to.  And (do me a big favor. ?) please, don't [presume to] lecture me regarding the potential, degree of severity where looking at whatever type of either whether weather or climate connected event, potentially "catastrophic", in the future. ... Plainly, where viewed more specifically in line with your efforts since above to explain it, "catastrophic hype", is an exercise in .. "circular" logic.


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#181
Phil

Posted 17 April 2014 - 10:52 AM

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I get that you might think I'm a hypocrite, totally. Not going to lecture you, either.

Just hope you'll keep an open mind, and understand that predicting a major climate shift is not easy and often contradicts what I say about other theories out there, in terms of their level of "hype"..

#182
richard mann

Posted 17 April 2014 - 11:26 AM

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-
 
That's quite a bit to "keep in mind", and "understand" .. "Phil".  
 
So, and if otherwise .. you're asking me to encourage those who would venture, even allow for and not lose sight of the degree of difficulty where considering, the idea of "predicting a major climate shift".
 

(Another "Sarcasm Alert" here.)

 

.. I'll make every effort to adjust my thinking where considering my opportunities to do so in the future.
 
$ .. It's the sweeping generalizations of others' thinking, that you allude to, that I find objectionable "Phil".

 

To my view, those generalizations, published, constitute a certain type of "hyperbole", in and of their own.


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#183
Phil

Posted 17 April 2014 - 12:31 PM

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Thanks, I understand.

Reading through some of my old posts, I realize that I may have sounded like an arrogant, egotistical "know-it-all", when dismissing ideas that I don't agree with.

I'm trying to fix that, because I'm really not like that in reality. It's been hard for me to adjust my perceptions on "debate" since my retirement. When working, become accustomed to rigorous debate amongst peers, circular reasoning, and attacks from outside agencies. Over time I became a cold, heartless robot, as did most of my colleagues.

It's stressful when you have agencies with agendas outside the US, attacking you and scientific progress, then going to other agencies without classified status, and using them as a mouthpiece to claim you're the one hoarding money and attacking science.

#184
richard mann

Posted 17 April 2014 - 01:40 PM

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O.k. .. I guess that's all appreciable to some degree.
 
With all of these ideas being the case although, if I were you, or let's just say at least, I would, .. instead of allowing yourself to either whether revisit that past more intense debate type energy, and forum, or either to be concerned with whatever more high-powered argument/s with even more obscured entities, .. work more to deal with, even approach this forum and what you submit to it, in a more academic way; i.e. as if you were speaking to a wider spectrum of people, interested in the weather and climate, a bit more casually leastwise. And with this, then further perhaps, potentially, in whatever theme more specific that you might have in mind to comment with respect to.
 
Basically, preface, context and substance (still. ?). And with and given these elements covered where considering whatever you have to say or might, more an aim to actually convey something, whatever, to a wider cross-section of people; whom might perhaps benefit more academically, from seeing it posted and reading through it.

More succinctly, I'd say that "foundation", of whatever posted is the most important element where considering a more public forum more scientifically focused. With it provided, anyone commenting in response to whatever, has something [more] solid to work with and from.

 

More specifically, where looking at whatever "Nino", or "ENSO" related thinking, I'd say that whatever said, certainly needs some amount of preface. Context being somewhat less important, if not considering ideas more obscured potentially. And then again, with substance and foundation to work from being more primary. 


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#185
snow_wizard

Posted 27 April 2014 - 09:11 AM

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Very interesting...the 30 day SOI is now solidly positive after being below -10 for a time and there are no WWB's anywhere in sight.  The chances of a major Nino are very low now.  Looking at the MJO it has looked more Ninaish the past few weeks and looks poised to take another tour through Nina territory in the coming weeks.  The atmosphere is going to quash a major event once again.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#186
Phil

Posted 27 April 2014 - 11:48 AM

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Agreed. As I've said from the beginning, I believe the forcings that govern ENSO suggest a weak or moderate event is the likely outcome. It should also be a basin-wide event, rather than a west-based event, IE: 2009-10.

#187
seattleweatherguy

Posted 27 April 2014 - 12:05 PM

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Agreed. As I've said from the beginning, I believe the forcings that govern ENSO suggest a weak or moderate event is the likely outcome. It should also be a basin-wide event, rather than a west-based event, IE: 2009-10.

so u you expect no snow this year? And 80s this week!



#188
snow_wizard

Posted 27 April 2014 - 12:51 PM

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so u you expect no snow this year? And 80s this week!

 

He actually thinks this Nino may be like the 1965-66 and 1968-69 Ninos.  Both of which were good winters here...especially 1968-69.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#189
Phil

Posted 29 April 2014 - 12:50 PM

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One of my warmist friends is already panicking about the supposed "demise" of El Niño.

While I think El Niño is pretty much a lock for 2014-15, conditions do not appear to be very favorable right now, and could get worse as we head into May.

800.jpg

#190
Chris

Posted 29 April 2014 - 02:09 PM

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One of my warmist friends is already panicking about the supposed "demise" of El Niño.

While I think El Niño is pretty much a lock for 2014-15, conditions do not appear to be very favorable right now, and could get worse as we head into May.

800.jpg

 

Yeah.  I already posted this in the main El Nino thread.



#191
Phil

Posted 29 April 2014 - 03:16 PM

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Yeah. I already posted this in the main El Nino thread.


I didn't see that, sorry. The fact that there two threads with ENSO-restated stuff is kinda blah.

If the predicted easterly burst verifies, it may very well amplify the upwelling that is currently occurring between 160-140W..note the 20C isotherm: http://www.cpc.ncep....e/wkxzteq.shtml
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#192
snow_wizard

Posted 29 April 2014 - 10:43 PM

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One of my warmist friends is already panicking about the supposed "demise" of El Niño.

While I think El Niño is pretty much a lock for 2014-15, conditions do not appear to be very favorable right now, and could get worse as we head into May.

800.jpg

 

 

There hasn't been an easterly burst like that in the 120 to 150E area for a hell of a long time.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#193
Jesse

Posted 29 April 2014 - 10:53 PM

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There hasn't been an easterly burst like that in the 120 to 150E area for a hell of a long time.


Is that bad for the Niño?

#194
iFred

Posted 29 April 2014 - 10:59 PM

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Is that bad for the Niño?

 

I hope so.

 

Jim or Phil, can one of you guys give us a laymans view on what the current ENSO state is?



#195
Bham_Guy

Posted 30 April 2014 - 12:20 PM

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Latest anomaly map:

 

anomnight.4.28.2014.gif



#196
Phil

Posted 30 April 2014 - 12:33 PM

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There's another KW developing in the WPAC associated with the MJO. Next 10-15 days should see ENSO warming.
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#197
snow_wizard

Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:24 PM

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Is that bad for the Niño?

 

 

I think the Nino could be in serious trouble.  The MJO recently spent a long time in areas more favorable for La Nina before making a quick pass through more traditional Nino regions in a weakened state.  Now the MJO is slated to make another fairly amplified and slow pass through octants 1 through 4 (Nina territory).  The March SOI was -12 and then it shot up to +6 in April.

 

I still have to say some kind of a Nino is still the most likely this winter, but there is some doubt creeping in.  Almost no way this will be anything close to the super Nino that some have been touting.


  • Jesse likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#198
Phil

Posted 04 May 2014 - 06:57 PM

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Nice animation of the global subsurface (right). Note the KW in across the equatorial Pacific.

animation-1-sst-v-h300-jan-3-thru-mar-29

#199
snow_wizard

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:47 PM

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Nice animation of the global subsurface (left). Note the KW in across the equatorial pacific.

animation-1-sst-v-h300-jan-3-thru-mar-29

 

 

Very cool!  It's quite apparent on the subsurface map that all of the excess heat in the Western Pacific has been dissipated now.  We could get this warm ENSO event over with rather quickly.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#200
snow_wizard

Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:51 PM

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It's quite remarkable how almost everything is turning sour for this potential El Nino event now. The latest OLR anomaly map for 160W to 160E in the equatorial region indicates a positive anomaly (ninaish), the latest MJO forecast indicates the MJO being in octants 1 through 4 (ninaish) for at least the next two weeks, GLAAM forecasts indicate a decent negative AAM episode (ninaish) coming up, the April SOI was solidly positive (unfavorable for Nino), and last but not least the subsurface temperature animation for the equatorial Pacific indicates the subsurface warm pool is rapidly shrinking and becoming less anomalously warm. Perhaps the most important factor of all is there is nothing but cold water right on the heels of the subsurface warm pool.
  • Jesse likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15