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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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#301
Jesse

Posted 07 June 2014 - 09:08 AM

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I forgot to add 30% chance for a weak Niño. Meaning in that 90% chance, this is the probability distribution I'm assigning.


Ah, I see.

Sounds about right.

#302
snow_wizard

Posted 07 June 2014 - 10:02 PM

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At this juncture I'm going for 50% chance weak to moderate El Nino, 5% strong Nino, 35% chance neutral, and 10% chance of La Nina.  It's just impossible to ignore how things aren't lining up for this Nino right now.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#303
Phil

Posted 07 June 2014 - 11:39 PM

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At this juncture I'm going for 50% chance weak to moderate El Nino, 5% strong Nino, 35% chance neutral, and 10% chance of La Nina. It's just impossible to ignore how things aren't lining up for this Nino right now.


What makes you think this MJO/AAM push will just stop in its tracks? All the evidence points to a solid progression, albeit weaker than the March explosion.

The best you can hope for IMO is a borderline warm neutral/weak Niño..which is still possible. A moderate El Niño is most likely, though, in my opinion.

#304
TT-SEA

Posted 08 June 2014 - 05:06 AM

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I forgot to add 30% chance for a weak Niño. Meaning in that 90% chance, this is the probability distribution I'm assigning.

 

 

That still does not add up.  

 

You said 60% moderate... and now 30% weak... and also said 5% strong.

 

So the chance of a Nino according to you is 95%... not 90%.   :)

 

There is a 5% of chance of anything else according to you... and that would be neutral.   So you are saying a 0% of a Nina.



#305
Phil

Posted 08 June 2014 - 09:28 AM

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That still does not add up.

You said 60% moderate... and now 30% weak... and also said 5% strong.

So the chance of a Nino according to you is 95%... not 90%. :)

There is a 5% of chance of anything else according to you... and that would be neutral. So you are saying a 0% of a Nina.


And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

#306
richard mann

Posted 08 June 2014 - 12:07 PM

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... still does not add up.

 

It's all very simple Tim.

 

… 90% chance of an El Niño, 60% moderate El Niño, … If, with 40% of the 90% being most likely .. 5% neutral, 5% strong.  This, if with the other .. 30% of that 90%, minus 60%, not initially accounted for, being weak.

 

Or, … moderate 60%/40%, of 90%. With 10% of 90% being split between a "warm" neutral, or strong. And the remaining 30% in the + ENSO (or Nino proper) category, being weak. And with this, 0% change of a La Nina, if you go with the 100% of 90%. .. Or even where considering whatever break-down of the 10% remaining.

Get it "now". ?


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#307
weatherfan2012

Posted 08 June 2014 - 01:29 PM

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And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

alot of mets and people use percentage on enso not sure why some are having issues with what your saying as it clear to me.the moderate nino is the most likey outcome this the highest percentage but there is still some chance it could end up weak this the 30 % and even less chance for warm neutral but still low chance this the 5 % phil is talking about.

#308
richard mann

Posted 08 June 2014 - 01:33 PM

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wxfill_like-this.jpg
 
.. figures you'd, "like" this. ...... (post 306, above.)
 
You'd known what you'd been saying when you posted it .. all. 
 
... Perhaps a "pie" chart (or two: one with 10% of the "pan" missing altogether, and one more whole, and if labeled 90% equals an hundred.), next time. 
 
Looking forward to your updates.
 
.. This with otherwise, and if again. -  http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=28461


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#309
Deweydog

Posted 08 June 2014 - 04:01 PM

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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#310
snow_wizard

Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:01 PM

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The MJO models are coming into agreement that the current MJO wave could collapse before making it into the Western Pacific.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#311
snow_wizard

Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:02 PM

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And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

 

0% chance?  The cold subsurface water west of 180 warrants at least a slight chance.  It's certainly not likely, but not impossible.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#312
Phil

Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:37 PM

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0% chance? The cold subsurface water west of 180 warrants at least a slight chance. It's certainly not likely, but not impossible.


I highly doubt it...when solar/QBO/internal momentum all support a Niño, it's pretty much impossible to avoid one.

That said, I think certain "people" are still hyping this thing to an absurd level. This should end being an average, basin wide Niño, w/ a trimonthly peak between 1.1-1.3.

The upcoming trade wind burst is very impressive:

800.jpg


Furthermore, the MJO could be relatively slow to move. As I mentioned earlier, the stratosphere is really hindering the Niño development. As easterlies have descended below 30hpa (now affecting the tropical upper- tropospheric thermals and the IO/WPAC Hadley Cells)), we've seen a +SOI/low amplitude AAM regime take hold.

See how life associated with the MJO holds over the IO, with higher pressures to the east. Not El Niño friendly.

xaJ0xk.jpg

#313
Phil

Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:55 PM

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Now, that being said, the upcoming MJO event is a big one..similar to the January 2013 event that was set off by the major stratospheric regime shift (SSW/ESC/Windfield flip). The 2013 event marked the beginning of the incredible -EPO/+PVA regime, and arguably pushed us into this Niño as the tropical cells completely reorganized.

So this MJO event will eventually progress, and may possibly be accompanied by WWB activity. If that fails to occur, then we can take a mod-strong Niño off the table completely.

Here's the ECMWF ensemble, depicting the progression of the MJO:

PpgNtC.jpg

#314
richard mann

Posted 09 June 2014 - 11:14 PM

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That said, I think certain "people" are still hyping this thing to an absurd level.


This said, I think, certain other "people", are thinking .. that certain "people", are "still" hyping this "thing", to an absurd level.  (.. If, and or but, with much more to show where considering the basis of my thinking.)

.. Why, don't you qualify, some of these "things" that you come up with. ? .. (Ideas, that you grace, us all here, with, perhaps more apt at times.) .. Who really knows, whether based in fact or otherwise, certainly much, of the time.
 
Yeh, "It's" a simple statement, I know. .. But you could do better. Take a less crude approach to the idea. Even if, the case.
 
So, here it is "Phil". My actual response where having considered this that you suggested here above. Same old, same old.  Had you in fact "fathomed" that there might be one. (Doubtful.)
 
"Who", then. ? .. Mentioned, pointed to, "where". ?  (What "people". ? .. Where, mystery boy. ?)


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#315
iFred

Posted 10 June 2014 - 04:48 AM

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Hey guys, I have started a new topic in the long range forum for people to post their predictions. If you are going to make one, I would encourage you to post it there for scrutiny or accolades come October.



#316
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 10 June 2014 - 08:17 AM

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NOAA has a new El Nino blog, worth a look.  http://www.climate.g...rtment/8443/all

 

It also has a good discussion about the current forecast.  They are not seeing a 1997-1998 event.  

http://www.climate.g...enso-discussion



#317
snow_wizard

Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:36 PM

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Pretty incredible...A +30 SOI reading today and there have only been 5 negative days in the past 30.  You would have to be smoking some pretty strong stuff to think we are going to have a Nino ANYTHING like the 1982 or 1997 events at this point.  This could end up being nothing more than a weak Nino.  Weak enough to certainly leave the door open for an interesting winter in the NW.

 

The graphic below is very telling.  The coldest subsurface conditions at 155 meters (west of 160W) in over a year.  A strong Nino is unquestionably off the table now.

 

wkteq2_anm_155m.gif


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#318
Phil

Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:19 PM

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

#319
snow_wizard

Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:55 PM

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

 

As the subsurface warmth continues to wither away.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#320
richard mann

Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:56 PM

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NOAA has a new El Nino blog, worth a look.  http://www.climate.g...rtment/8443/all

 

It also has a good discussion about the current forecast.  They are not seeing a 1997-1998 event.  

http://www.climate.g...enso-discussion

 

Neat site.


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#321
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:08 AM

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

I hope this Nina circulation doesn't continue for much longer and that the MJO push causes more WWB activity soon.



#322
Black Hole

Posted 13 June 2014 - 07:43 AM

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The MJO module I posted in the met 101 section talks about how the MJO can initiate WWB activity for anybody who wants to know what is being talked about.

 

Edit -- And Kelvin Waves for that matter.


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Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#323
snow_wizard

Posted 14 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

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All of the major ENSO models except for the UKMET indicate the MJO will collapse without getting even close to the Western Pacific.  If true this would mark several weeks without the MJO getting into traditional El Nino territory.  If the current sub surface warm pool dissipates before another Kelvin wave is generated this Nino is in danger of failing.

 

The CFS model has started spitting out some neutral and even one La Nina ensemble member in recent days.  On the whole it has backed off substantially on the strength of the Nino.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#324
Phil

Posted 14 June 2014 - 09:23 AM

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Models are poor at forecasting the MJO. It may be weaker by the time it gets to the WPAC because it's battling the Walker cell..just like the 2013 event. But I doubt it fizzles.

Also, those phase diagrams are struggling because they're also honing in on a CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave), which is played dress up, trying to be an MJO. :)

#325
richard mann

Posted 14 June 2014 - 11:09 AM

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.... which is played dress up, trying to be an MJO. :)

 
:).  .... Obviously. 
 
The MJO
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave - @
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.6.12.2014.gif


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#326
Phil

Posted 14 June 2014 - 11:55 AM

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:). .... Obviously.

The MJO
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave - @

http://www.ospo.noaa...t.6.12.2014.gif


http://www.atmos.alb...y/kelvinmod.pdf

However, recent studies suggest that a leading mode of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves behaves differently from the MJO in many respects. These Kelvin waves tend to be smaller-scale features than the MJO and they tend to propagate at more than twice the phase speed of the MJO (Matsuno 1966; Dunkerton and Crum 1995; Wheeler and Kiladis 1999; Straub and Kiladis 2002; Roundy and Frank 2004a). Further, although the spectral peak of the MJO intersects with the theoretical Kelvin wave dispersion line at zonal wavenumber 1, spectral power associated with the MJO is spread broadly across wavenumbers 0 to 10. Power associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves is spread more broadly across the spectrum in frequency, but at each frequency where it occurs, it is largely concentrated within a narrow range of wavenumbers (Wheeler and Kiladis 1999; Roundy and Frank 2004a).



#327
snow_wizard

Posted 15 June 2014 - 08:37 AM

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Things are getting really interesting now!  The latest CPC MJO forecast shows the MJO completely missing the Western Pacific and possibly re-emerging in octant 1 or 2 by the end of week two.  The ECMWF is similar.  If we don't get a WWB soon this Nino may be deader than a door nail by winter.

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.gif   20.81KB   0 downloads

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#328
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 June 2014 - 09:35 AM

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What are the latest CFS esembles saying?


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#329
Utrex

Posted 15 June 2014 - 05:27 PM

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Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.



#330
snow_wizard

Posted 15 June 2014 - 05:32 PM

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What are the latest CFS esembles saying?

 

 

They are trending cooler.  A few are neutral and one the other day was Nina.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#331
snow_wizard

Posted 15 June 2014 - 05:36 PM

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Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

 

The subsurface profile is growing quite problematic for a sustained El Nino.  A lot of cold subsurface west of 160W or even 150W now.  The Kelvin wave that initially triggered this warm episode is rapidly dissipating.  No WWB in sight at this point.  It will soon get to the point where we could have a minor WWB and it wouldn't do the Nino much good.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#332
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 15 June 2014 - 10:35 PM

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Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

 

I certainly hope we don't wind up with another ENSO neutral winter, or I fear CA is going to have yet another extremely dry winter due to the "memory" of the atmosphere having a -PDO, +AMO signature.



#333
snow_wizard

Posted 17 June 2014 - 09:41 PM

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I closely examined the 12z GFS run earlier today and things look to grow even more anti El Nino next week as strong surface high pressure sets up off the West Coast of South America and over the mid latitudes of the South Central Pacific.  Both very hostile features for El Nino.  The South American surface high would be particularly bad news for those wanting a Nino next winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#334
primetime

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:22 AM

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MJO has moved into phase 5...

 

f7Aq4LP.gif

 



#335
primetime

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:23 AM

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Several of the non-phase space MJO forecasts continue to show the MJO moving out into the Pacific, like this one...

 

Tf71ixd.gif

 



#336
Phil

Posted 19 June 2014 - 09:55 PM

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What makes you think this MJO/AAM push will just stop in its tracks? All the evidence points to a solid progression, albeit weaker than the March explosion.

The best you can hope for IMO is a borderline warm neutral/weak Niño..which is still possible. A moderate El Niño is most likely, though, in my opinion.



As was suspected by many of us here, the first signs of the next WWB are showing up in the modeling, as the MJO/tropical forcings are now progressing

800.jpg
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#337
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 23 June 2014 - 08:21 AM

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Good update from Tisdale at WUWT  http://wattsupwithth...ng/#more-111826

 

Some good points about why it is hard to make good predictions, part of it is the NOAA budget cuts for TAO buoys.   Also some good graphs about the way things are now vs 2 months ago.

 

.



#338
snow_wizard

Posted 23 June 2014 - 10:13 PM

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As was suspected by many of us here, the first signs of the next WWB are showing up in the modeling, as the MJO/tropical forcings are now progressing

800.jpg

 

 

Looks like an unimpressive one though.  Any Kelvin wave would have a lot of anomalous cold water to overcome west of the dateline now.  My money is on neutral or weak Nino this winter.  Probably somewhere in the -0.2 to +0.8 range.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#339
snow_wizard

Posted 23 June 2014 - 10:32 PM

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I don't think many of the experts predicted this a couple of months ago.  The super Nino is certainly dead now...that much we can be sure of.

 

heat-last-year.gif


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#340
Black Hole

Posted 23 June 2014 - 10:48 PM

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But many of us never bought the super nino idea. I am sticking to what I said before, a moderate nino.


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#341
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 07:14 PM

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If this Niño fails to develop (unlikely), then we may be in for a Niño-biased period until 2017. In fact, if the solar/QBO forcings truly dominate, we could see another large Niño push in a few months.

Referred to as the TPQDO (Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation), it lends more proof to the Solar-QBO harmonics driving ENSO. The PDO tends to spike at and just after solar max due to +ENSO circulations that are forced externally:


MFXyRt.jpg


This lengthened solar cycle/weak phase-amplitude shift lead to the failure of the 2012-13 El Niño attempt...but was still noted as a systematic heat release. A lot of that heat release occurring now as well. So we will likely not see any overall global temperature increase during this period, before the cooling begins later this decade.

#342
Jesse

Posted 24 June 2014 - 07:20 PM

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If this Niño fails to develop (unlikely), then we may be in for a multi-year warm event. In fact, if the solar/QBO forcings truly dominate, we could see another large Niño push fairly soon.

Referred to as the TPQDO (Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation), it lends more proof to the Solar-QBO harmonics driving ENSO. The PDO tends to spike at and just after solar max due to +ENSO circulations that are forced externally:


MFXyRt.jpg

You are all over the place. I think half of your "predictions" are just exercises in contrarianism.

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right? ;)

#343
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 07:25 PM

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You are all over the place. I think half of what you "predict" are just exercises in contrarianism.

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?


I added to my post, suspecting you'd make a comment like this. There will be zero overall global warming through the upcoming period, but no cooling until ~ 2017, +/- 1yr, based on satellite measurements of the radiation budget.

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right? ;)


A large systematic latent heat release is rare in May..but look at the data and you'll see nothing out of the ordinary:


800.jpg


Even GISS, which is a low-resolution mess, is not crazy-warm.


800.jpg



Warmists are desperate because if this niño fails to spike the global temperature, their theory is toast. El Niño is when all the supposedly "built up" heat is supposed to be forced out of the WPAC due to the +AAM/RT circulation...we've already seem Immense IO convection/WPHC amplification leading to latent heat release..similar to January 2013...yet the global temperature has barely moved! The positive imbalance at the TOA continues to grow, suggesting the system is preparing to cool...perhaps abruptly, once conditions permit....

I actually thought the Apr-Sep period this year would torch mightily as the QBO drops, and the ESC cools, leading to enhanced WPAC convection..hence latent heat release.

Please, trust me... :)

#344
Jesse

Posted 24 June 2014 - 07:58 PM

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2017 is getting closer. It will be interesting to see what happens. Just hoping you don't change or modify your overall prediction between now and then. ;)
  • Phil likes this

#345
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:07 PM

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2017 is getting closer. It will be interesting to see what happens. Just hoping you don't change or modify your overall prediction between now and then. ;)


Lol, don't worry. 2017, +/- 1yr, accounting for solar/ENSO/QBO forcing. Cooling could initiate in winter of 2016-17 if we've timed things correctly. Either way, 2016-2018 is the window of initiation, with 2020-2025 featuring a very abrupt drop, much like the (unadjusted) 1963-1970 cooling event, which was intentionally erased from the CRU record.

Though this Niño will likely not lead to a significant temperature spike anyway, if any at all. So that alone should clarify the underlying trend, IMO.

#346
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:13 PM

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I hope conditions are different enough so that CA and the SW U.S. don't experience another bone dry winter for 2014-15. These last two winters here in CA were just terrible due to an overall lack of precipitation in the entire state!



#347
Jesse

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:14 PM

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Lol, don't worry. 2017, +/- 1yr, accounting for solar/ENSO/QBO forcing. Cooling could initiate in winter of 2016-17 if we've timed things correctly. Either way, 2016-2018 is the window of initiation, with 2020-2025 featuring a very abrupt drop, much like the (unadjusted) 1963-1970 cooling event, which was intentionally erased from the CRU record.

Though this Niño will likely not lead to a significant temperature spike anyway, if any at all. So that alone should clarify the underlying trend, IMO.


I guess I'm just having trouble understanding how the warmest May in record globally and a possible new record warm year for 2014 does not equate a significant temperature spike.

#348
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:26 PM

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I guess I'm just having trouble understanding how the warmest May in record globally and a possible new record warm year for 2014 does not equate a significant temperature spike.


That record was up for grabs. Large spikes in global temperature are rare in May, as large, coherently unified MJO events resonate less in the NH latent heat release process, which is already aggrivated to begin with due to higher levels of insolation.

However, May 2014 has seen very anomalous convection in the IO/WPAC (Just looked at how beefed the WPAC Hadley Cell is). This has resulted in a large systematic heat release, much like what occurred in January/February of 2013.


However, on the 30yr mean, again...nothing to write home about...

800.jpg

800.jpg

#349
richard mann

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:32 PM

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[The] Warmists are [...] desperate ....

Please, trust me... :)

 
Truly, inspirational. 
 
(Ohp. Sorry. "Sarcasm Alert".)


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#350
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:32 PM

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More good news...looks like UAH is finally going to be fixed...from Dr. Spencer:

As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….


http://www.drroyspencer.com

It's about time. The divergence of UAH in recent years is getting ridiculous...