Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[snow_wizard]

 

You've gotta move dude.

 

 

I sure want to get out of here.  My wife is well aware moving is extremely important (in fact essential) for my sanity.

[Phil]

I'm getting closer to saying any Nino will be dead by winter. The atmosphere is wildly hostile for any Nino development at the present time and will continue to be so for at least the next two weeks. The subsurface warm pool is running out and there is nothing behind it. Today SOI was +24 and the 30 day has been positive for weeks now. I honestly don't see how anything stronger than a weak Nino could be possible by winter.

I disagree, but we'll see. As far as tropical circulation, this Niño is resembling the recent 3 Niños somewhat, ('03, '07, '10) but is still peculiar in that the Walker Cell is perturbed, but the IO Hadley Cell is juiced.

 

The stratosphere resembles 1958-59, 1965-66, 1986-87, and 2009-10, while solar would argue for 1968-69 and 1986-87.

 

Meanwhile, the recent Indonesian eruption adds another variable into the mix, and may deplete O^3, leading to a stronger PV.

[Phil]

I sure want to get out of here. My wife is well aware moving is extremely important (in fact essential) for my sanity.

New climates are always better than you imagine them to be. You can envision a blizzard under the streetlights, but it's 10X better to experience it firsthand.

[richard mann]

... Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

What do you mean (Or better perhaps at this point, had you meant.) exactly, with the "Doom" idea here, Jim.

[snow_wizard]

 

... Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

 

What do you mean (Or better perhaps at this point, had you meant.) exactly, with the "Doom" idea here, Jim.

 

 

 

Meaning a boring winter with little cold or snow in the western lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

Jim... this is from the Australian BOM on the developing Nino (released today) explaining why the SOI has been out of sync:

 

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Dan the Weatherman]

I disagree, but we'll see. As far as tropical circulation, this Niño is resembling the recent 3 Niños somewhat, ('03, '07, '10) but is still peculiar in that the Walker Cell is perturbed, but the IO Hadley Cell is juiced.

 

The stratosphere resembles 1958-59, 1965-66, 1986-87, and 2009-10, while solar would argue for 1968-69 and 1986-87.

 

Meanwhile, the recent Indonesian eruption adds another variable into the mix, and may deplete O^3, leading to a stronger PV.

I surely hope next year doesn't turn out to be another 1958-59 or 2006-07 or Socal is in for another ultra-dry winter!

[Phil]

Jim... this is from the Australian BOM on the developing Nino (released today) explaining why the SOI has been out of sync:

 

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

They've got their chicken-egg backwards. The real forcing(s) behind the awkward tropical circulations is the stratosohere, namely the stubborn QBO/MQI wind field (50hpa & below)...which has lead to displaced convection. The SSTs do influence convective regimes, but it goes the other way too..and when you have an anomalous upper atmospheric thermal profile/windfield surprising/enhancing the MJO/wave train, crazy s**t happens. The winter circulations are actually still holding on.

 

And either way, the +SOI/strengthened trade winds are still the essential ENSO governor...they communicate forcings in the ENSO domain..essentially the SOI/AAM is the middle-man.

[TT-SEA]

They've got their chicken-egg backwards. The real forcing(s) behind the awkward tropical circulations is the stratosohere, namely the stubborn QBO/MQI wind field (50hpa & below)...which has lead to displaced convection. The SSTs do influence convective regimes, but it goes the other way too..and when you have an anomalous upper atmospheric thermal profile/windfield surprising/enhancing the MJO/wave train, crazy s**t happens. The winter circulations are actually still holding on.

 

And either way, the +SOI/strengthened trade winds are still the essential ENSO governor...they communicate forcings in the ENSO domain..essentially the SOI/AAM is the middle-man.

 

 

So Nino fail again??  

 

That would be nice.  

[richard mann]

So Nino fail again??  

 

That would be nice.

 

Don't you mean .. fail again. ?? .. So Nino.

 

And .. be nice. That would, Tim. ?

 

.. The context. - http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=28404

 

("They", need "Phil's" no..) .... May the "force-ings" be w/ you. 

[Phil]

So Nino fail again??

 

That would be nice.

No, I've been predicting a weak or moderate El Niño during 2014-15 for a long while now...I think it'll end up achieving moderate strength in terms of the trimonthly...likely falling between 1.1 and 1.4.

 

The super-niño predictions were based on the rapid transition in the global circulations that occurred between January-March, ignoring the governing forcings behind those changes.

[Phil]

Just an FYI, there's a 50-60% chance (IMO) for WWB activity in late June, via the progress of a major MJO wave. It'll start with a bout of easterlies, though, and if those winds can reverse the inertial processes we're seeing in the waters, it could go a long way in dampening the effects of the next set of WWBs.

[richard mann]

-
 
Here Tim, this may "help" you, "too". ... http://www.at ...TN/rtnt.html#part5
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.6.2.2014.gif

[TT-SEA]

They've got their chicken-egg backwards. The real forcing(s) behind the awkward tropical circulations is the stratosohere, namely the stubborn QBO/MQI wind field (50hpa & below)...which has lead to displaced convection. The SSTs do influence convective regimes, but it goes the other way too..and when you have an anomalous upper atmospheric thermal profile/windfield surprising/enhancing the MJO/wave train, crazy s**t happens. The winter circulations are actually still holding on.

 

And either way, the +SOI/strengthened trade winds are still the essential ENSO governor...they communicate forcings in the ENSO domain..essentially the SOI/AAM is the middle-man.

 

 

Well... if the SOI is in control than this Nino is in trouble.   The SOI has been running in Nina territory for quite some time.

[Jesse]

Well... if the SOI is in control than this Nino is in trouble. The SOI has been running in Nina territory for quite some time.

Phil is just torn between being hopelessly contrarian and saying what he really thinks will happen. It is quite the inner struggle. Very hard to make a forecast when you are bound to the habit of tearing apart everyone else's, even if it agrees with yours!

[richard mann]

Meaning a boring winter with little cold or snow in the western lowlands.

 

I see. Well that's fairly clear. 

 

— Especially in and around Seattle proper I would image with this then. 

 

Can you say further where looking at this idea, perhaps what features—i.e. more general pattern characteristics, more specific colder to warmer air mass main delivery / set ups—tend / would tend, to accompany a Nino type leaning more toward working against the potential for both a more distinct cold, and or decent snow. ?

[Phil]

Well... if the SOI is in control than this Nino is in trouble. The SOI has been running in Nina territory for quite some time.

The large scale forcings indicate an El Niño is on the way..hard to deny that. But limited in strength.

[Phil]

Phil is just torn between being hopelessly contrarian and saying what he really thinks will happen. It is quite the inner struggle. Very hard to make a forecast when you are bound to the habit of tearing apart everyone else's, even if it agrees with yours!

You're full of garbage, as usual. There is absolutely nothing contrarian about that post.

 

I'm predicting a weak or moderate El Niño, and have been for a long while. That said, I thinks the idea that we're in for a strong Niño is out of touch with reality.

 

Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction.

[Utrex]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

Well the MJO is predicted to be active and even possibly mark the onset of yet another Kelvin Wave. Hope to see it comes to light (Washington and Oregon must hate us Californians for loving this El Nino).

[weatherfan2012]

Phil is just torn between being hopelessly contrarian and saying what he really thinks will happen. It is quite the inner struggle. Very hard to make a forecast when you are bound to the habit of tearing apart everyone else's, even if it agrees with yours!

phil has been very clear with his predictions for a weak to moderate el nino for a year or so ago and from what I seen back up his stuff well with evendence so would have to repectfuly disagree with your post.

[GHweatherChris]

phil has been very clear with his predictions for a weak to moderate el nino for a year or so ago and from what I seen back up his stuff well with evendence so would have to repectfuly disagree with your post.

What the hell is "evendence"?

 

Also, I am not a big believer in we are due things, however, we are technically due for some kind of El Nino, so forecasting as such is actually a good bet, even for anyone that doesn't know what to look for leading up to it. Plus it makes for good news on TV.

 

Anyone predicting an El Nino this year and claiming noteriety for it has issues.

 

Personally, I am thinking a neutral year is just as likely as a weak/moderate El Nino at this point.

[Phil]

What the hell is "evendence"?

You know exactly what he was saying. Come on.

 

Also, I am not a big believer in we are due things, however, we are technically due for some kind of El Nino, so forecasting as such is actually a good bet, even for anyone that doesn't know what to look for leading up to it. Plus it makes for good news on TV.

I made the call in February of 2012, and I know others here remember that and will back me up. I busted my azz to make that prediction, too.

 

My predictions for the next two years:

 

2015-16: La Niña, moderate

2016-17: Weak La Niña, or cold-neutral.

 

You have yet to make one definitive climate-scale prediction. You, too, need to put your money where your mouth is and walk out on that limb.

 

Anyone predicting an El Nino this year and claiming noteriety for it has issues.

No one is claiming notoriety. The people who have "issues" are those who don't have the balls to make their own predictions, yet talk down the hard work of others.

 

Personally, I am thinking a neutral year is just as likely as a weak/moderate El Nino at this point.

Ok. I'll hold you to your "neutral" prediction, then.

[Phil]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

Well the MJO is predicted to be active and even possibly mark the onset of yet another Kelvin Wave. Hope to see it comes to light (Washington and Oregon must hate us Californians for loving this El Nino).

Possibly, assuming the MJO wave makes it into region 7-8-1. It will initialize in a La Niña-esque location.

 

See the massive easterly wind burst now progged right over the heart of the ENSO domain:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/87VhNP/800.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

You know exactly what he was saying. Come on.

 

I made the call in February of 2012, and I know others here remember that and will back me up. I busted my azz to make that prediction, too.

 

My predictions for the next two years:

 

2015-16: La Niña, moderate

2016-17: Weak La Niña, or cold-neutral.

 

You have yet to make one definitive climate-scale prediction. You, too, need to put your money where your mouth is and walk out on that limb.

 

No one is claiming notoriety. The people who have "issues" are those who don't have the balls to make their own predictions, yet talk down the hard work of others.

 

Ok. I'll hold you to your "neutral" prediction, then.

Or we can get worked up over an innocent post.

[Phil]

Or we can get worked up over an innocent post.

I'm not worked up. But if you're going to slip in a few obvious allusions to me, you'll need to back them up.

 

[Black Hole]

Now now children...

[snow_wizard]

Well the MJO is predicted to be active and even possibly mark the onset of yet another Kelvin Wave. Hope to see it comes to light (Washington and Oregon must hate us Californians for loving this El Nino).

 

 

The only problem is that MJO is where you would normally expect it with a La Nina.  Not favorable for Nino at this time.

[snow_wizard]

Possibly, assuming the MJO wave makes it into region 7-8-1. It will initialize in a La Niña-esque location.

 

See the massive easterly wind burst now progged right over the heart of the ENSO domain:

 

 

No question the warm SSTs will take a hit while the subsurface warm pool continues to wither.

[richard mann]

.... I'm predicting a weak or moderate El Niño, and have been for a long while. ......

.. Pretty fair amount of "latitude" you're allowing yourself here. [Yes/No.?]

 

— How about a tad more specificity. ? -Even, more general definitions to these values as you'd interpret them.

[TT-SEA]

MEI update from Klaus Wolter:

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

In the context of ENSO-neutral conditions from August-September 2013 through earlier this year, this section features a comparison figure with persistent ENSO-neutral conditions for at least six bimonthly MEI values and ending in close proximity to the ranking of January-February 2014 MEI. Longer-lived neutral conditions (such as 1959-61) could only enter once into this comparison figure.

The updated (April-May) MEI has gone up 0.8 sigma in just one month, now at +0.93. This increase is the 2nd biggest on record for this time of year. In fact, its current ranking has gone up to 24 ranks to reach the 7th highest value for this time of year, vaulting straight into high moderate El Niño rankings from solid ENSO-neutral territory last month. The long anticipated breakthrough to El Niño conditions in 2014 is clearly under way, leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 10 nearest-ranked April-May values, five had clearly come up to this level over the previous three months. Among those five, four continued at El Niño levels through the rest of the year, while one (1993) dropped back to borderline neutral conditions by the end of the year. One (2002) ended up as a weak-to-moderate event, while the other three (1957, 1987, and 1997) are classified as strong El Niño events in the MEI sense. In other words, the simple-minded odds for El Niño remain at or above 80% through the remainder of 2014, and are consistent with previous discussions on this website. The odds for a strong El Niño are perhaps slightly higher than before, somewhere around 60%.

Similar to last month, positive SST anomalies cover much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. However, their size has grown compared to last month, now reaching at least +1C over a good fraction of the equatorial Pacific. Negative SST anomalies are still found near 20S off the coast of South America.

For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the latest NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (May 8th, 2014), ENSO-neutral conditions were diagnosed, but were expected to transition to El Niño by northern summer, at 65% odds or higher. The differences in opinion are shrinking, perhaps to be followed by a declaration of El Niño conditions later this summer.

There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In 2013, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 rose from close to -0.5C in January to within +/-0.2C in March and April of that year. While Niño 3 dropped back to -0.5C and even lower from May through August, Niño 3.4 remained less negative (around -0.3C) through this period. During September through December, both indices hovered close to or just under 0C. In January 2014, both indices dropped, down to -0.4C (-0.5C) for Niño 3 (3.4), respectively. This drop continued for Niño 3 in February 2014, (-0.8C), while Niño 3.4 stabilized at -0.55C. March 2014 showed both indices recovering back to -0.2C, then up to +0.2C in April, and straddling +0.5C in May.

For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2013, the SOI varied from slightly negative values early in the year (-4 in February) all the way to +14 in June and back down to -2 in October. It rose back up to +9 in November, consistent with potentially re-emerging La Niña conditions. However, the December value dropped right back to +1, only to be followed by a jump to +12 in January 2014, and back to slightly negative values (-1) in February. This was followed by a further drop to -13 in March 2014, its lowest March value since 1998(!). However, the April and May values went right back up to positive (La Niña) territory. The SOI remains the noisiest ENSO index that I can think of. .

An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates (currently through January 2014). Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now a full three years behind in its update (through January 2011).

Stay tuned for the next update by July 12th (or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño came and went during the summer of 2012, not unlike 1953. I do not believe that it will be as short-lived in 2014, not least because the PDO is now positive, while it was negative back in 2012. However, its ultimate size is still uncertain.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Although I hate say it - if I'm being objective then the Southwest needs rain more than the Northwest needs snow.  Also we're in uncharted territory here.   Even with an El Nino the Northwest can get a snowy December.

California desperately needs a good winter season with above normal snow pack in order to begin to replenish the water supply in its reservoirs. Norcal has really taken a beating the last two years with meager rain and snow totals in this rather abnormal pattern that has been in place lately.

[Utrex]

The only problem is that MJO is where you would normally expect it with a La Nina.  Not favorable for Nino at this time.

I'm confused: Does not this MJO pulse signal a possible Kelvin Wave in the near future?

[Phil]

I'm confused: Does not this MJO pulse signal a possible Kelvin Wave in the near future?

Eventually, assuming everything goes to plan. Would probably be in late June.

[TT-SEA]

Eventually, assuming everything goes to plan. Would probably be in late June.

 

 

SOI has been very anti-Nino lately.   Will that change as well?

[Phil]

SOI has been very anti-Nino lately. Will that change as well?

For a time, at least, probably in late June, via MJO forcing. On an unrelated note, we'll probably see an ~ 4 day -SOI streak beginning over the next few days as a convective wave passes through the domain, followed by a quick jump back into a stretch of moderate to strong +SOIs.

 

That could bust though, given the chaotic nature of the circulation attm..

[snow_wizard]

Eventually, assuming everything goes to plan. Would probably be in late June.

 

 

I think the way this MJO wave plays out could pretty much decide if this Nino will be a bust or something more.  If the wave collapses before it gets into octant 6 that would be a major blow to the Nino.

[snow_wizard]

Although I hate say it - if I'm being objective then the Southwest needs rain more than the Northwest needs snow.  Also we're in uncharted territory here.   Even with an El Nino the Northwest can get a snowy December.

 

1969 says we can get snowy January also...and to a lesser extent 1973.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF and EMON ENSO models looks less favorable for the MJO wave to progress to the Western Pacific than the NCEP models.  Skill wise those two models are supposed to be quite good.

[snow_wizard]

California desperately needs a good winter season with above normal snow pack in order to begin to replenish the water supply in its reservoirs. Norcal has really taken a beating the last two years with meager rain and snow totals in this rather abnormal pattern that has been in place lately.

 

No question a 1968-69 type outcome would put a smile on all of our faces. Sure would be nice.

[richard mann]

-

.... zoom. !