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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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#351
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:33 PM

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Truly, inspirational.

(Ohp. Sorry. "Sarcasm Alert".)


Nice manipulation. Bravo...
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#352
richard mann

Posted 24 June 2014 - 08:38 PM

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Nice manipulation. Bravo...

 

Adulation, totally unnecessary. 

 

"Fat" as you lay 'em up and lob 'em in, knocking 'em out is fairly simple. 

 

"manipulation" .. Your own, convenient and more comfortable characterization .. of course. 

 

Basically, rather, more just my "appreciation" of your rhetoric. 


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#353
Phil

Posted 24 June 2014 - 09:42 PM

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Adulation, totally unnecessary.

"Fat" as you lay 'em up and lob 'em in, knocking 'em out is fairly simple.

"manipulation" .. Your own, convenient and more comfortable characterization .. of course.

Basically, rather, more just my "appreciation" of your rhetoric.


You could try addressing my points if you'd like.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#354
richard mann

Posted 24 June 2014 - 10:02 PM

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You could try addressing my points if you'd like.

 

As I find them. (?) .. And to the extent that I find them noteworthy, then. (?)

 

.. Where woven in with and amongst the "rhetoric". ?

 

"Appreciate", the invitation.


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#355
Phil

Posted 27 June 2014 - 01:34 PM

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Here's that NCDC May datapoint people were mentioning:

800.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#356
primetime

Posted 01 July 2014 - 07:00 AM

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wow, this nino is on life support.  Good calls in here by snow wizard, who first expressed doubts about its development.  Looks like we are teetering on warm neutral / weak nino at the moment.  To me, the wind anomalies are more important than the fading upper oceanic heat content.  Anyone have any ideas on where we go between now and fall with the wind anomalies?  Wouldn't the transition into the -QBO favor more westerly anomalies and El Nino?



#357
stuffradio

Posted 06 July 2014 - 01:03 PM

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You are all over the place. I think half of your "predictions" are just exercises in contrarianism.

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right? ;)

Doesn't extremes of one end of the spectrum lead to extreme on the opposite? If it gets extremely warm, or we get big El Ninos, we'd get big La Ninas. Right?



#358
Black Hole

Posted 07 July 2014 - 09:45 PM

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That isn't necessarily true Stuffradio. That assumes a static climate. Very few of us believe in that, regardless of which way you think its swinging.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#359
Phil

Posted 10 July 2014 - 10:08 AM

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Developing Niño (right) yrs vs 2014 (left)...me thinks Hansen/NASA et al are missing the boat:

E5e7Dy.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#360
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 July 2014 - 12:14 PM

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Developing Niño (right) yrs vs 2014 (left)...me thinks Hansen/NASA et al are missing the boat:

E5e7Dy.jpg

Phil, please elaborate on this a bit more. Are you thinking there is not going to be an El Nino this year?



#361
Phil

Posted 10 July 2014 - 03:12 PM

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No change in my thinking...I'm still thinking weak or moderate El Niño, central-based
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#362
TT-SEA

Posted 10 July 2014 - 03:16 PM

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No change in my thinking...I'm still thinking weak or moderate El Niño, central-based


Looks far east-based right now.

#363
Phil

Posted 10 July 2014 - 03:19 PM

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Looks far east-based right now.


That should change. I meant basin-wide, not central-based
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#364
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 04:04 PM

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.. Even more clear. (Not.)  @
 
Somewhere then, in the wider part of "the" "basin", Right. ?
 
.. Clarity, not one of your strong suits really. Is it. ?


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#365
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 04:08 PM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/?p=29714
 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/?p=29733


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#366
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:04 PM

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That should change. I meant basin-wide, not central-based

Thanks. I hope it is basin-wide as opposed to "Modoki" because I think that would increase the odds for a wetter winter in CA and the rest of the SW states which are in various stages of drought.


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#367
primetime

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:09 PM

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.. Even more clear. (Not.)  @
 
Somewhere then, in the wider part of "the" "basin", Right. ?
 
.. Clarity, not one of your strong suits really. Is it. ?

 

So, let me get this straight...you constantly attack one of the posters who offers the most to this forum (Phil)...meanwhile you give us constant ramblings of wording that resembles some sort of foreign language...odd, just odd


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#368
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:10 PM

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-

 

... It should be Dan. Per my view. 

 

I can't see how "Phil" has come up with warmth being focused otherwise more westward myself: .. if I'm correct were thinking he has in fact. 


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#369
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:12 PM

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So, let me get this straight..

 
Please do. .. I scrutinize what I find "posted". (Perhaps you may want to look up the term.)
 
This though it might be asked, certainly at times, where considering what you've suggested above, ...
 

.... offers the most ....


.. "the most", .. What. ?
 
And, if you can't understand to appreciate what I post (?) .. I'd say, you're not working to quite well enough.
(Oh Well.)


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#370
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:25 PM

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-

 

... It should be Dan. Per my view. 

 

I can't see how "Phil" has come up with warmth being focused otherwise more westward myself: .. if I'm correct were thinking he is in fact. 

 

He did state above at first that it would be central based and then he made a correction in his next post that it would be basin wide. I believe I remember him stating a while back that he thought it would be basin-wide.



#371
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:30 PM

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... basin-wide.

 
 .. "Nino" sector/s, "basin", tropical Pacific "basin". (?)
 
What are we, had he been, talking about. ?
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#372
Phil

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:35 PM

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I meant the "basis" (broad longitudinal location) of the warmest SST anomalies within the ENSO domain..a basin-wide event has no statistically significant basis..which is what I think this event will morph into.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#373
Black Hole

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:52 PM

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I knew what you meant Phil if that helps. My thinking is also unchanged...which was quite similar to yours if I remember right.


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#374
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:52 PM

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I['d] meant .. the "basin" (broad longitudinal location) of ... the warmest SST anomalies within ... the ENSO domain..


".. the warmest ..", When. ? .. At this point. ? ... possible, more generally. ?

 

And sorry. But, with taking what you've said here above more literally, certainly leastwise, .. If ".. the warmest SSTAs" aren't present, neither is the "basin". 

 

... [A] basin-wide event has no statistically significant basis.. ........ which .... is ...... what I think this event will morph into.


And, .. you've lost me, pretty much completely here.

.. "Even so (?), ... this is what I believe the present state will ...." (?)
 

I knew what you['d] meant Phil .....


Please do, help me.

"basin-wide", ... that containing / covering, all main Nino sectors / index regions. ?  .. perhaps. (?)
 
http://en.wikipedia....o-index-map.png
http://www.bom.gov.a...o-la-nina.shtml


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#375
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 July 2014 - 11:06 PM

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 .. "Nino" sector/s, "basin", tropical Pacific "basin". (?)
 
What are we, had he been, talking about. ?

Basin-wide refers to the warm water being located from the central equatorial Pacific (around the Date Line) all the way into the eastern equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America. Central based or El Nino Modoki refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the central equatorial Pacific around the Date Line region, and east based refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the eastern equatorial Pacific close to the South American coast. I believe that I am right in my analysis, but if I am wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me on this.



#376
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2014 - 11:15 PM

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-
.. Clear enough. 

Certainly much more than I've read otherwise above.
 
This although, with what you've said lastly here just above, are these your impressions gathered relative to what you've seen written elsewhere where looking at the idea of coverage / area of potential deviation from a more neutral condition, or more merely, and where looked at more all together, your attempt to appreciate what "Phil" had meant with his use of the term "basin-wide" above more perhaps. ?
 
.. More essentially here, I've heard the term "basin" used to describe the whole of the both "Pacific" and "Atlantic". But never, part of the Pacific, more tropical / equatorial, and extending only out to where you've pointed. 
 
"google", for:  "basin-wide ENSO"


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#377
Phil

Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:23 AM

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I knew what you meant Phil if that helps. My thinking is also unchanged...which was quite similar to yours if I remember right.


Thanks. Yes yours was very similar to mine. I might lower my guess a bit unless I'm barred from doing so. I'm not very good at predicting anomalies on such a specific scale..haha
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#378
coupdevill

Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:50 PM

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Basin-wide refers to the warm water being located from the central equatorial Pacific (around the Date Line) all the way into the eastern equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America. Central based or El Nino Modoki refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the central equatorial Pacific around the Date Line region, and east based refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the eastern equatorial Pacific close to the South American coast. I believe that I am right in my analysis, but if I am wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me on this.

 

Dan & Phil, What would this event look like for the Pacific Northwest? Thank you in advance!


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#379
Phil

Posted 16 July 2014 - 05:42 PM

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Anyone want to predict where this El Niño goes when the ITCZ moves S & the -QBO begins dominating the lower stratosphere?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#380
Phil

Posted 16 July 2014 - 05:48 PM

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Looks very spindly attm...Atlantic ENSO (AEM/Atlantic Equatorial Mode) is also heavily negative..may eventually promote stronger easterlies in the EPAC as lift is enhanced there due to the warmer SSTs/HC regime:

anomnight.7.14.2014.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#381
richard mann

Posted 16 July 2014 - 05:55 PM

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-

http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=29965

 

Anyone want to predict where this El Niño goes when the ITCZ moves S & the -QBO begins dominating the lower stratosphere?

 

... Looked at all together, what tells you that this will happen. ?


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#382
Phil

Posted 16 July 2014 - 06:04 PM

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-
http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=29965

... Looked at all together, what tells you that this will happen. ?


Essentially, -QBO gives MJO more free-will and favors an amplified EUT wave train, -NAM, etc. Shift in ITCZ will do just the opposite. Will the emergence/downwelling of the -QBO wind flux allow MJO to force KW/WWB activity? Who knows..

ITCZ moves N/S with seasonal shifts in insolation, altering the hemisphere-hemisphere wave train...ITCZ/Hadley/Walker/MJO/CCKW network (tropical forcings) either govern or act as the middle man to seasonal/intraseasonal phenomenon in the climate system....example ENSO, Polar-Mid Latitude Circulation, annular modes, etc.

The QBO is a strong governor of MJO mean-period frequency and NAM response to solar.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#383
Jesse

Posted 16 July 2014 - 06:07 PM

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Essentially, -QBO gives MJO more free-will and favors an amplified EUT wave train, -NAM, etc. Shift in ITCZ will so just the opposite.

ITCZ moves N/S with seasonal shifts in insolation, altering the hemisphere-hemisphere wave train...ITCZ/Hadley/Walker/MJO/CCKW network (tropical forcings) either govern or act as the middle man to seasonal/intraseasonal phenomenon in the climate system....example ENSO, Polar-Mid Latitude Circulation, annular modes, etc.

The QBO is a strong governor of MJO mean-period frequency and NAM response to solar.

 

He's just so gosh darn smart! He can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!



#384
Phil

Posted 16 July 2014 - 06:12 PM

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He's just so gosh darn smart! He can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!


Come on, man. You can find literature on this everywhere. You're more than smart enough to know this:

https://ams.confex.c...paper_36913.htm
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#385
Phil

Posted 16 July 2014 - 06:14 PM

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https://ams.confex.c...ssion_13740.htm
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#386
richard mann

Posted 16 July 2014 - 08:50 PM

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... just so gosh darn smart! ... can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!


Come on, man. You can find literature on this everywhere. You're more than smart enough to know this:

https://ams.confex.c...paper_36913.htm

 
Granted. .. by degrees. 
 
.. First, as for myself (My view.), I generally only ask you to expand with respect to something you've said when I've found that it's just far too truncated, for most anyone. 

 

And with this, where looking at more than just how whatever dynamic, atmospherical, might work / be working .. to influence whatever other, but more where I've seen room for your thinking, perhaps additional, more specific, put together with what you might have pointed to more generally. 
 
.. This though, in point of fact, and where considering what Jesse's both said,  together inferred more here above, I also think that you could perhaps include a bit more of the basics, woven in somehow, to and along with some of the views and thinking that you post. 
 
I've worked to suggest this to you myself, at many points in the past.  / Appreciate your response to what I'd asked, above. -  http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=29971


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