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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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One point I can give snow wizard is that the NCEP models especially, but even the ECMWF still isn't that great at MJO prediction. That is notoriously difficult.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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850mb wind forecast is what you would normally expect with a major La Nina in progress.  This is not typical in any way shape or form for a Nino trying to develop.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That's associated with the upcoming MJO/AAM surge. Eventually, that cell should progress and lead to WWBs in late-June.

 

If by some coincidence this fails to occur, then we may end up with a weak El Niño, instead of a solid moderate event, which is what looks most likely now.

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So it is looking like there is a more equal chance of a weak Nina, Neutral, or weak Nino.

I'd say 90% chance of an El Niño, 60% moderate El Niño, 5% neutral, 5% strong.

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I think we could complete Phil's statement with a 25% of a weak nino then and a 5% chance of la nina. That way with his 60% mod and 5% strong we get 90% nino, which he said. Then with 5% neutral which he also said we must have 5% for la nina and that completes things. It works, but it is a highly irrational way of doing it.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I think we could complete Phil's statement with a 25% of a weak nina then and a 5% chance of la nina. That way with his 60% mod and 5% strong we get 90% nino, which he said. Then with 5% neutral which he also said we must have 5% for la nina and that completes things. It works, but it is a highly irrational way of doing it.

 

60% of the time it works, every time.

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This doesn't make sense.

 

You forgot to account for the 30%.

I forgot to add 30% chance for a weak Niño. Meaning in that 90% chance, this is the probability distribution I'm assigning.

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At this juncture I'm going for 50% chance weak to moderate El Nino, 5% strong Nino, 35% chance neutral, and 10% chance of La Nina.  It's just impossible to ignore how things aren't lining up for this Nino right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At this juncture I'm going for 50% chance weak to moderate El Nino, 5% strong Nino, 35% chance neutral, and 10% chance of La Nina. It's just impossible to ignore how things aren't lining up for this Nino right now.

What makes you think this MJO/AAM push will just stop in its tracks? All the evidence points to a solid progression, albeit weaker than the March explosion.

 

The best you can hope for IMO is a borderline warm neutral/weak Niño..which is still possible. A moderate El Niño is most likely, though, in my opinion.

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I forgot to add 30% chance for a weak Niño. Meaning in that 90% chance, this is the probability distribution I'm assigning.

 

 

That still does not add up.  

 

You said 60% moderate... and now 30% weak... and also said 5% strong.

 

So the chance of a Nino according to you is 95%... not 90%.   :)

 

There is a 5% of chance of anything else according to you... and that would be neutral.   So you are saying a 0% of a Nina.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That still does not add up.

 

You said 60% moderate... and now 30% weak... and also said 5% strong.

 

So the chance of a Nino according to you is 95%... not 90%. :)

 

There is a 5% of chance of anything else according to you... and that would be neutral. So you are saying a 0% of a Nina.

And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

 

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

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... still does not add up.

 

It's all very simple Tim.

 

… 90% chance of an El Niño, 60% moderate El Niño, … If, with 40% of the 90% being most likely .. 5% neutral, 5% strong.  This, if with the other .. 30% of that 90%, minus 60%, not initially accounted for, being weak.

 

Or, … moderate 60%/40%, of 90%. With 10% of 90% being split between a "warm" neutral, or strong. And the remaining 30% in the + ENSO (or Nino proper) category, being weak. And with this, 0% change of a La Nina, if you go with the 100% of 90%. .. Or even where considering whatever break-down of the 10% remaining.

 

Get it "now". ?

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And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

 

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

alot of mets and people use percentage on enso not sure why some are having issues with what your saying as it clear to me.the moderate nino is the most likey outcome this the highest percentage but there is still some chance it could end up weak this the 30 % and even less chance for warm neutral but still low chance this the 5 % phil is talking about.
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http://www.proxigee.com/wxfill_like-this.jpg
 
.. figures you'd, "like" this. ...... (post 306, above.)
 
You'd known what you'd been saying when you posted it .. all. 
 
... Perhaps a "pie" chart (or two: one with 10% of the "pan" missing altogether, and one more whole, and if labeled 90% equals an hundred.), next time. 
 
Looking forward to your updates.
 
.. This with otherwise, and if again. -  http://theweatherfor...the-nw/?p=28461

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The MJO models are coming into agreement that the current MJO wave could collapse before making it into the Western Pacific.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And 5% warm neutral...I put that in the +ENSO category.

 

Yes, 0% chance of La Niña.

 

0% chance?  The cold subsurface water west of 180 warrants at least a slight chance.  It's certainly not likely, but not impossible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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0% chance? The cold subsurface water west of 180 warrants at least a slight chance. It's certainly not likely, but not impossible.

I highly doubt it...when solar/QBO/internal momentum all support a Niño, it's pretty much impossible to avoid one.

 

That said, I think certain "people" are still hyping this thing to an absurd level. This should end being an average, basin wide Niño, w/ a trimonthly peak between 1.1-1.3.

 

The upcoming trade wind burst is very impressive:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/WAyzHD/800.jpg

 

 

Furthermore, the MJO could be relatively slow to move. As I mentioned earlier, the stratosphere is really hindering the Niño development. As easterlies have descended below 30hpa (now affecting the tropical upper- tropospheric thermals and the IO/WPAC Hadley Cells)), we've seen a +SOI/low amplitude AAM regime take hold.

 

See how life associated with the MJO holds over the IO, with higher pressures to the east. Not El Niño friendly.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/xaJ0xk.jpg

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Now, that being said, the upcoming MJO event is a big one..similar to the January 2013 event that was set off by the major stratospheric regime shift (SSW/ESC/Windfield flip). The 2013 event marked the beginning of the incredible -EPO/+PVA regime, and arguably pushed us into this Niño as the tropical cells completely reorganized.

 

So this MJO event will eventually progress, and may possibly be accompanied by WWB activity. If that fails to occur, then we can take a mod-strong Niño off the table completely.

 

Here's the ECMWF ensemble, depicting the progression of the MJO:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/PpgNtC.jpg

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That said, I think certain "people" are still hyping this thing to an absurd level.

This said, I think, certain other "people", are thinking .. that certain "people", are "still" hyping this "thing", to an absurd level.  (.. If, and or but, with much more to show where considering the basis of my thinking.)

 

.. Why, don't you qualify, some of these "things" that you come up with. ? .. (Ideas, that you grace, us all here, with, perhaps more apt at times.) .. Who really knows, whether based in fact or otherwise, certainly much, of the time.

 

Yeh, "It's" a simple statement, I know. .. But you could do better. Take a less crude approach to the idea. Even if, the case.

 

So, here it is "Phil". My actual response where having considered this that you suggested here above. Same old, same old.  Had you in fact "fathomed" that there might be one. (Doubtful.)

 

"Who", then. ? .. Mentioned, pointed to, "where". ?  (What "people". ? .. Where, mystery boy. ?)

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Pretty incredible...A +30 SOI reading today and there have only been 5 negative days in the past 30.  You would have to be smoking some pretty strong stuff to think we are going to have a Nino ANYTHING like the 1982 or 1997 events at this point.  This could end up being nothing more than a weak Nino.  Weak enough to certainly leave the door open for an interesting winter in the NW.

 

The graphic below is very telling.  The coldest subsurface conditions at 155 meters (west of 160W) in over a year.  A strong Nino is unquestionably off the table now.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

 

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

 

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

 

As the subsurface warmth continues to wither away.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weak Niño is definitely possible, IMO, though not as likely as a niño of moderate strength.

 

The upcoming MJO push is crucial. It could very well force WWB activity late this month. But as of now, the strong trade winds have reversed the westerly currents in the ENSO domain..those westerly currents had been prevalent since February, so this is kind of a big deal in that we're now seeing a (temporary) Niña circulation in the thermocline.

I hope this Nina circulation doesn't continue for much longer and that the MJO push causes more WWB activity soon.

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The MJO module I posted in the met 101 section talks about how the MJO can initiate WWB activity for anybody who wants to know what is being talked about.

 

Edit -- And Kelvin Waves for that matter.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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All of the major ENSO models except for the UKMET indicate the MJO will collapse without getting even close to the Western Pacific.  If true this would mark several weeks without the MJO getting into traditional El Nino territory.  If the current sub surface warm pool dissipates before another Kelvin wave is generated this Nino is in danger of failing.

 

The CFS model has started spitting out some neutral and even one La Nina ensemble member in recent days.  On the whole it has backed off substantially on the strength of the Nino.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Models are poor at forecasting the MJO. It may be weaker by the time it gets to the WPAC because it's battling the Walker cell..just like the 2013 event. But I doubt it fizzles.

 

Also, those phase diagrams are struggling because they're also honing in on a CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave), which is played dress up, trying to be an MJO. :)

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http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/kelvinmod.pdf

 

However, recent studies suggest that a leading mode of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves behaves differently from the MJO in many respects. These Kelvin waves tend to be smaller-scale features than the MJO and they tend to propagate at more than twice the phase speed of the MJO (Matsuno 1966; Dunkerton and Crum 1995; Wheeler and Kiladis 1999; Straub and Kiladis 2002; Roundy and Frank 2004a). Further, although the spectral peak of the MJO intersects with the theoretical Kelvin wave dispersion line at zonal wavenumber 1, spectral power associated with the MJO is spread broadly across wavenumbers 0 to 10. Power associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves is spread more broadly across the spectrum in frequency, but at each frequency where it occurs, it is largely concentrated within a narrow range of wavenumbers (Wheeler and Kiladis 1999; Roundy and Frank 2004a).

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Things are getting really interesting now!  The latest CPC MJO forecast shows the MJO completely missing the Western Pacific and possibly re-emerging in octant 1 or 2 by the end of week two.  The ECMWF is similar.  If we don't get a WWB soon this Nino may be deader than a door nail by winter.

 

 

post-222-0-58949200-1402850214_thumb.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What are the latest CFS esembles saying?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

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