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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

GLs bomb
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#1
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:39 AM

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png   203.59KB   1 downloads
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#2
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:48 AM

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

#Awesomess...even if I don't get snow with this storm, it's fascinating to see how much of a strong signal this system is showing on all the global models.  The dynamic storms we have seen so far since late Oct is a big ticket item for our region going forward.  Reminds me of all the stories my parents told me from the historic winters of the late 70's.


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#3
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:56 AM

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Bring it on buddy.....hopefully, we get some snow outta this system. A little confused on "Severe" , in terms of what though?! I am thinking you mean t'stms. :unsure:



#4
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:09 AM

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Bring it on buddy.....hopefully, we get some snow outta this system. A little confused on "Severe" , in terms of what though?! I am thinking you mean t'stms. :unsure:


By severe I meant strong T-storms. The worst of which may stay south of MI like last time, tho GRR did mention lightning which qualifies as severe these days for Mich. I would think strong winds mixing down in any T-storm would be another threat. And yes, I'm really hopeful for the first measurable snow from the backside of the storm. Key will be how quickly it deepens and thus the timing of the switch-over. This will be a real test of my learning curve of tracking precision.
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#5
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:14 AM

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By severe I meant strong T-storms. The worst of which may stay south of MI like last time, tho GRR did mention lightning which qualifies as severe these days for Mich. I would think strong winds mixing down in any T-storm would be another threat. And yes, I'm really hopeful for the first measurable snow from the backside of the storm. Key will be how quickly it deepens and thus the timing of the switch-over. This will be a real test of my learning curve of tracking precision.

Yes, hopefully, my area gets some accumulations as well. As your statements states above, all depends on how quickly this thing deepens.



#6
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:16 AM

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#Awesomess...even if I don't get snow with this storm, it's fascinating to see how much of a strong signal this system is showing on all the global models.  The dynamic storms we have seen so far since late Oct is a big ticket item for our region going forward.  Reminds me of all the stories my parents told me from the historic winters of the late 70's.


Oh, this below normal temp regime and active pattern is totally 70's flashback stuff for sure! GRR mentioned a mix on the front end of the Precip for central LP of Mich, so we're not too far from this being a legit snowstorm even down here. Next time should be kismet!
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#7
Madtown

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:24 AM

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Kinda looks like it gets its act together late for Wisconsin? Looks like a bomb though!
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#8
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:12 AM

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12z GFS trending towards a stronger southern energy which is making sense, esp when a few days ago I saw the main jet energy tracking in this general fashion.
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#9
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:19 AM

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12z GFS trending towards a stronger southern energy which is making sense, esp when a few days ago I saw the main jet energy tracking in this general fashion.


Seems as though the models, especially the GFS, have been trying to strengthen the southern energy during the last few days but couldn’t quite get there. Today’s runs may be the start of some very nice trends. Still looks too warm for a huge snow anywhere in the forum, it we’ll see how this goes. The 12z GFS is almost a perfect track for a whopper snow here. Regardless looks like a deep storm is looking quite likely. Fun model watching this week!
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#10
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:22 AM

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Seems as though the models, especially the GFS, have been trying to strengthen the southern energy during the last few days but couldn’t quite get there. Today’s runs may be the start of some very nice trends. Still looks too warm for a huge snow anywhere in the forum, it we’ll see how this goes. The 12z GFS is almost a perfect track for a whopper snow here.


Agree, and what is more encouraging, the Last 4 runs are showing an earlier phase per GFS. Btw, GFS goes from at 996mb at HR 120, to a 969mb storm at HR 144 = Bombogenesis!
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#11
Stormgeek

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:22 AM

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Although thermals look to cause issues with this storm this time around, it is nice to see a storm taking a pretty favorable track for the the area once it recycles and gets colder out. Maybe a bit much west to east, but hey at least the low isn't up in NoDak!


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#12
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:28 AM

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Lake snows will be a bonefide feature for those lucky enough to benefit. 30-48 hr period of N/NW flow could jack up snow totals.

#13
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:30 AM

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Agree, and what is more encouraging, the Last 4 runs are showing an earlier phase per GFS. Btw, GFS goes from at 996mb at HR 120, to a 969mb storm at HR 144 = Bombogenesis!


Bombogenesis is right! I hadn’t even gotten to hr 144 yet Wowzers. Let’s see what the other models show. Getting inside 120 hrs so hopefully we get some consensus
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#14
Money

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:33 AM

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Gem gets it down to 974 just east of GB

#15
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:33 AM

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GEM trending in the right direction as well.

#16
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:42 AM

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Yeah, GEM not as deep, but a very slow mover once it gets over NMI. If there's cold enough air, I'd think via the lakes we will see short term models amp snow totals in favored areas up north.
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#17
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:50 AM

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If that northern piece can slow down just a bit someone’s getting smashed.

#18
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:54 AM

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How exciting is it to see models, trend for change, more favorably this season compared to last???  How many times did we say last season, "The Dakotas magnet", "Here comes another one for the Dakota's"...."Gosh, darn it, the Dakotas steal another one..."....


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#19
james1976

Posted 12 November 2017 - 09:24 AM

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I'm ​loving the windy systems so far this cycle. Its gonna make it tough to measure snow this winter but it sure is awesome to see wind-driven snow and blitz conditions! Next LRC cycle is gonna be exciting.


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#20
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 01:09 PM

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Both 12z EPS/Control are focusing in on the southern energy each run.  This is a very complex system with several moving parts so I would expect to see different solutions going forward.  Def will be an interesting week tracking this storm.


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#21
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 01:11 PM

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How exciting is it to see models, trend for change, more favorably this season compared to last???  How many times did we say last season, "The Dakotas magnet", "Here comes another one for the Dakota's"...."Gosh, darn it, the Dakotas steal another one..."....

:lol:



#22
Money

Posted 12 November 2017 - 02:35 PM

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18z gfs is getting better more organized band of snow in northern wi
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#23
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 02:45 PM

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@ Jaster,

 

You have a better shot at seeing snow w this system. Looks like I will most likely be on the warmer side w 50s possible and windy conditions. Turning sharply colder on the back-end w snowshowers as colder air filters in behind this storm.


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#24
Tom

Posted 12 November 2017 - 03:02 PM

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Hey, we have the 12z JMA in our camp... ;)

 

jma_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

jma_T850_us_7.png


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#25
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 03:54 PM

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I for one will be tracking the surface LP for a potential record setting event. Per this map, anything crossing NMI in the mid-970's or lower could enter the record books!

Attached File  NovemberRecordLowSLPs.thumb.gif.fd9f79cfb71d2b83f548bef4442e8284.gif   59.09KB   0 downloads
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#26
jaster220

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:43 PM

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A poster who is an amatuer Met in the SMI forum mentioned the extreme 60 deg temp contrast that will be in play (similar temp Delta with the Nov '89 bomb) as this storm explodes over MI. Thinks the models may not yet be picking up on this and could trend stronger.

Meanwhile, Hoosier on Amwx did some digging on where it stands right now:

"I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so."

Can't wait to see Storm Watches hoisted. S Lk Mich should get in on it this time, narrowly missed it last month.
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#27
Niko

Posted 12 November 2017 - 06:52 PM

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A poster who is an amatuer Met in the SMI forum mentioned the extreme 60 deg temp contrast that will be in play (similar temp Delta with the Nov '89 bomb) as this storm explodes over MI. Thinks the models may not yet be picking up on this and could trend stronger.

Meanwhile, Hoosier on Amwx did some digging on where it stands right now:

"I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so."

Can't wait to see Storm Watches hoisted. S Lk Mich should get in on it this time, narrowly missed it last month.

This could lead to a colder storm.



#28
james1976

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Local met on news tonight said Friday will be an interesting day across E IA with wind and big temp differential. Looks like mostly rain right now though. I'm just excited to see a wound up storm in the area!


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#29
james1976

Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:54 PM

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00z GFS pretty lame. Doesn't really get wound up.


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#30
Stormgeek

Posted 12 November 2017 - 09:15 PM

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00z GFS pretty lame. Doesn't really get wound up.

Was just going to comment on that. It looks to be over before it begins on that run. We must forge on to the morning runs! This is why model tracking is so fun.



#31
Money

Posted 12 November 2017 - 10:22 PM

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Euro is slower/stronger than gfs so far through 120

#32
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:12 AM

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Trends are in favor for more of a warmer solution with a possibility of some back wash snow showers.  At the moment, snow belts are likely to see the best chances for wintry precip.  Nonetheless, it's going to be a large wind-driven system.  I'd say most trees will be bare after this system which sets the stage for a wintry Thanksgiving week!


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#33
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:46 AM

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Warm, wet and windy...bleh. The one good thing that may come out of this storm is it takes down my dying 120 yr old oak tree. I’m planning to have it removed on Sunday, but if this storm does the job on Fri/Sat it saves me $2500.
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#34
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:07 AM

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Warm, wet and windy...bleh. The one good thing that may come out of this storm is it takes down my dying 120 yr old oak tree. I’m planning to have it removed on Sunday, but if this storm does the job on Fri/Sat it saves me $2500.

:lol:



#35
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Yup, it will be a warm storm for my neck of the woods as well, but that wind will be a factor along with wet weather. The following day looks sharply colder w numerous snowshowers flying around.

 

Btw: 85% of the trees here are now bare.



#36
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:24 AM

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Trends are in favor for more of a warmer solution with a possibility of some back wash snow showers.  At the moment, snow belts are likely to see the best chances for wintry precip.  Nonetheless, it's going to be a large wind-driven system.  I'd say most trees will be bare after this system which sets the stage for a wintry Thanksgiving week!

 

Magnifies the rarity of Nov 15-16 '89 for SMI. Just really hard to get just the right combination for significant snow in SMI at this early time of autumn. 


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#37
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:03 AM

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Looking forward at the strong winds w this system. All leaves will be gone by the weekend.


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#38
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:12 AM

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Magnifies the rarity of Nov 15-16 '89 for SMI. Just really hard to get just the right combination for significant snow in SMI at this early time of autumn.


Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

#39
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

 

I'll have to look into and check back with this... ;)



#40
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:56 AM

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Here's some key take-aways per NWS MQT's long-term disco this early morning. Basically, new season, but same ole story of models not getting a good read while key actors in the upcoming drama are over the data-sparse regions of the Pacific Ocean. 

 

 

From NWS MQT:

 

Friday through early next week: The attention turns to the arrival
of the above mentioned strong, longwave trough during the
Friday/Saturday time frame. The medium range models continue to
struggle with any sort of consistency from model to model, and run
to run. This is to be expected given the transition to a highly
amplified upper-air pattern. The main upper-level energy associated
with this system is currently digging south across the Gulf of
Alaska and is progged to sit and spin just off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Therefore, it could be a few days before ROABs
adequately sample this system and the models converge on similar
solutions.
Overall, the medium range models show this longwave
trough ejecting out across the Plains on Friday, and tracking
eastward across the Great Lakes on Saturday. As this wave takes on a
negative tilt, the focus for large-scale lift will increase and
allow for two areas of low pressure to merge and deepen somewhere in
the vicinity of Lakes Michigan and Huron. Given the highly amplified
upper-level pattern and the arrival of additional shortwave energy
digging rapidly from Canada on the back side
of the main trough on
Saturday, tend to favor the slower ECMWF/Canadian solutions at this
time.
The biggest uncertainty with this system will be system
precipitation, both hydrometer type and amounts Friday through
Saturday. Confidence is higher that we will see strong and gusty
southerly winds ahead of the developing the system, and then very
strong and gusty northwest winds on the back side of the exiting
system.

Behind the system, strong cold air advection will spread across the
region and bring back lake effect snow showers late Saturday through
Sunday across the northwest wind snow belts. With 850mb temperatures
progged to drop to around -10 to -15C, strong lake-induced CAPE
through the convective layer is expected to develop. This coupled
with forecast soundings showing ample lift and cloud depth through
the DGZ will favor moderate to heavy lake effect snow. As mentioned
above, very strong and gusty winds are expected as well, especially
near the shores of Lake Superior and across the Keweenaw. Therefore,
expect blowing snow to become an issue. These strong and gusty
onshore winds will also favor beach erosion near Lake Superior and
the potential for lakeshore flooding, mainly east of Marquette due
to large waves, late Saturday through Sunday.
&&

 

So, in a nutshell, stay tuned..



#41
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:02 AM

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Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

 

k, I see you GFS...

 

Yes, the wind trajectory looks very favorable on the GFS and it does indeed show SN coming into SWMI off of the Lake. Sad the accumulation it portrays is so pathetic tho.  But no complaints here. Just thought this had so much going for it, we might pull off a more wide-spread vs of Nov 2013's LES event(s). Last minute trends will need to be our friend it would appear. UP ofc looks locked-n-loaded to get rocked, as they should in mid-November.  :)


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#42
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:28 AM

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Usually, after Thanksgiving is when SEMI can start expecting some real snows, especially, heading into December (Met Winter). November snows are typically bonus snows in my book.



#43
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:43 AM

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Usually, after Thanksgiving is when SEMI can start expecting some real snows, especially, heading into December (Met Winter). November snows are typically bonus snows in my book.

 

Sadly, unless it's an aggressively cold and early winter, snow better than nuisance level often waits until right around the Solstice.

 

Attached File  20131101 SEMI Ave 1st snows.jpg   95.73KB   0 downloads


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#44
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:48 AM

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Gotta love the GGEM. Has a really nice strong SLP with beautiful placement for SWMI and cold air aloft, yet the P-type surface map doesn't even HINT at a change-over on the back edge..

 

Attached File  20171113 12z 132hr CMC 850mb for Sun Nov 19.jpg   379.96KB   2 downloads

 

:huh:

 

Attached File  20171113 12z 132hr CMC P-type for Sun Nov 19.jpg   408.48KB   2 downloads



#45
james1976

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:51 AM

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​This thing looks to tug down some cold air for the weekend that's for sure.


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#46
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:51 AM

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Gotta love the GGEM. Has a really nice strong SLP with beautiful placement for SWMI and cold air aloft, yet the P-type surface map doesn't even HINT at a change-over on the back edge..

 

attachicon.gif20171113 12z 132hr CMC 850mb for Sun Nov 19.jpg

 

:huh:

 

attachicon.gif20171113 12z 132hr CMC P-type for Sun Nov 19.jpg

Big Wind rainstorm. :blink:

 

Ofc....temps on Saturday will be dropping into the 30s w much colder air arriving behind this system and all of next week. Next potent system on its heels Thanksgiving Eve will be the one to watch.



#47
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:22 AM

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Sadly, unless it's an aggressively cold and early winter, snow better than nuisance level often waits until right around the Solstice.

 

attachicon.gif20131101 SEMI Ave 1st snows.jpg

Well, I have gotten my first measurable snowfall, so, looking good. Happy w that and received it earlier than average measurable snowfall date. I'm sure you have as well. Tom also received measurable snow just recently. Nice map there btw. Ofc, you have to go with whateva weather is given to ya. Ma Nature will not provide any favors. You go w the bad and good. Look on the bright side, we saw snow, we are running BA, NAO is forecasted to tank, next week we will be monitoring a potent system w plenty cold air around. Tom will be providing maps and info on the system as days progress. So, its party time Jaster. :D


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#48
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Well, I have gotten my first measurable snowfall, so, looking good. Happy w that and received it earlier than average measurable snowfall date. I'm sure you have as well. Tom also received measurable snow just recently. Nice map there btw. Ofc, you have to go with whateva weather is given to ya. Ma Nature will not provide any favors. You go w the bad and good. Look on the bright side, we saw snow, we are running BA, NAO is forecasted to tank, next week we will be monitoring a potent system w plenty cold air around. Tom will be providing maps and info on the system as days progress. So, its party time Jaster. :D

 

For sure this is an aggressive and early winter coming on, so those tables won't apply to this season (thankfully, lol). But no, still waiting for measurable snow in mby, which is no big deal, it's still early and there's lots of Nov left yet. Won't even be hard to beat the 1.1" that Nov '13 delivered at home. As for that system you're mentioning, I'm not seeing anything but a minor 2-4" (ish) clipper. Not bad for early season, but I'd call Nov 22nd two years ago "potent"  ;)  I wanna party like it's 1999 (Jan ofc), so trend this weekend's system stronger and colder pls.. :)  


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#49
Niko

Posted 13 November 2017 - 11:27 AM

Niko

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For sure this is an aggressive and early winter coming on, so those tables won't apply to this season (thankfully, lol). But no, still waiting for measurable snow in mby, which is no big deal, it's still early and there's lots of Nov left yet. Won't even be hard to beat the 1.1" that Nov '13 delivered at home. As for that system you're mentioning, I'm not seeing anything but a minor 2-4" (ish) clipper. Not bad for early season, but I'd call Nov 22nd two years ago "potent"  ;)  I wanna party like it's 1999 (Jan ofc), so trend this weekend's system stronger and colder pls.. :)  

:huh: .....Ok, then its a matter of time till ya receive some measurable snow. As for the clipper-type system, I'll gladly take the 2-4inch snowfall and run. ;)


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#50
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 01:24 PM

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CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???

 

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