November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

[jaster220]

Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

 

k, I see you GFS...

 

Yes, the wind trajectory looks very favorable on the GFS and it does indeed show SN coming into SWMI off of the Lake. Sad the accumulation it portrays is so pathetic tho.  But no complaints here. Just thought this had so much going for it, we might pull off a more wide-spread vs of Nov 2013's LES event(s). Last minute trends will need to be our friend it would appear. UP ofc looks locked-n-loaded to get rocked, as they should in mid-November. 

[Niko]

Usually, after Thanksgiving is when SEMI can start expecting some real snows, especially, heading into December (Met Winter). November snows are typically bonus snows in my book.

[jaster220]

Usually, after Thanksgiving is when SEMI can start expecting some real snows, especially, heading into December (Met Winter). November snows are typically bonus snows in my book.

 

Sadly, unless it's an aggressively cold and early winter, snow better than nuisance level often waits until right around the Solstice.

 

 

[jaster220]

Gotta love the GGEM. Has a really nice strong SLP with beautiful placement for SWMI and cold air aloft, yet the P-type surface map doesn't even HINT at a change-over on the back edge..

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

​This thing looks to tug down some cold air for the weekend that's for sure.

[Niko]

Gotta love the GGEM. Has a really nice strong SLP with beautiful placement for SWMI and cold air aloft, yet the P-type surface map doesn't even HINT at a change-over on the back edge..

 

20171113 12z 132hr CMC 850mb for Sun Nov 19.jpg

 

 

20171113 12z 132hr CMC P-type for Sun Nov 19.jpg

Big Wind rainstorm.

 

Ofc....temps on Saturday will be dropping into the 30s w much colder air arriving behind this system and all of next week. Next potent system on its heels Thanksgiving Eve will be the one to watch.

[Niko]

Sadly, unless it's an aggressively cold and early winter, snow better than nuisance level often waits until right around the Solstice.

 

20131101 SEMI Ave 1st snows.jpg

Well, I have gotten my first measurable snowfall, so, looking good. Happy w that and received it earlier than average measurable snowfall date. I'm sure you have as well. Tom also received measurable snow just recently. Nice map there btw. Ofc, you have to go with whateva weather is given to ya. Ma Nature will not provide any favors. You go w the bad and good. Look on the bright side, we saw snow, we are running BA, NAO is forecasted to tank, next week we will be monitoring a potent system w plenty cold air around. Tom will be providing maps and info on the system as days progress. So, its party time Jaster.

[jaster220]

Well, I have gotten my first measurable snowfall, so, looking good. Happy w that and received it earlier than average measurable snowfall date. I'm sure you have as well. Tom also received measurable snow just recently. Nice map there btw. Ofc, you have to go with whateva weather is given to ya. Ma Nature will not provide any favors. You go w the bad and good. Look on the bright side, we saw snow, we are running BA, NAO is forecasted to tank, next week we will be monitoring a potent system w plenty cold air around. Tom will be providing maps and info on the system as days progress. So, its party time Jaster.

 

For sure this is an aggressive and early winter coming on, so those tables won't apply to this season (thankfully, lol). But no, still waiting for measurable snow in mby, which is no big deal, it's still early and there's lots of Nov left yet. Won't even be hard to beat the 1.1" that Nov '13 delivered at home. As for that system you're mentioning, I'm not seeing anything but a minor 2-4" (ish) clipper. Not bad for early season, but I'd call Nov 22nd two years ago "potent"    I wanna party like it's 1999 (Jan ofc), so trend this weekend's system stronger and colder pls..   

[Niko]

For sure this is an aggressive and early winter coming on, so those tables won't apply to this season (thankfully, lol). But no, still waiting for measurable snow in mby, which is no big deal, it's still early and there's lots of Nov left yet. Won't even be hard to beat the 1.1" that Nov '13 delivered at home. As for that system you're mentioning, I'm not seeing anything but a minor 2-4" (ish) clipper. Not bad for early season, but I'd call Nov 22nd two years ago "potent"    I wanna party like it's 1999 (Jan ofc), so trend this weekend's system stronger and colder pls..   

.....Ok, then its a matter of time till ya receive some measurable snow. As for the clipper-type system, I'll gladly take the 2-4inch snowfall and run.

[Tom]

CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

[Minny_Weather]

CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

They used SPC's Day 5 map for their outlook.

 

[jaster220]

CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

  

They used SPC's Day 5 map for their outlook.

day5prob.gif

Yep, meant to post that earlier. The SPC text product said that it's early yet they went big on area, but plan to narrow it down later.

[jaster220]

From an amatuer Met on the local board:

 

”So the mother of all rare parallels has happened. Back in 2013 the GFS was the first model to trend back stronger with the storm on the 17th/18th that year and the date for that trend would be Nov 13th at the 18 run with a low pressure position and strength almost identical to 2013. The date today is November 13th. Look at these 2 maps. Top one is 2013 and bottom is today's run.

I have been at this for 18 years with weather models and I have never seen a parallel like that. Just a few hour differences on the storm timing and a MB difference in strength. History repeating itself? Might we see a big severe outbreak/wind storm and might this actually be a sign of a monster winter? I am not sure how anyone who loves weather couldn't find excitement in this."

 

 

[Tom]

From an amatuer Met on the local board:

 

”So the mother of all rare parallels has happened. Back in 2013 the GFS was the first model to trend back stronger with the storm on the 17th/18th that year and the date for that trend would be Nov 13th at the 18 run with a low pressure position and strength almost identical to 2013. The date today is November 13th. Look at these 2 maps. Top one is 2013 and bottom is today's run.

I have been at this for 18 years with weather models and I have never seen a parallel like that. Just a few hour differences on the storm timing and a MB difference in strength. History repeating itself? Might we see a big severe outbreak/wind storm and might this actually be a sign of a monster winter? I am not sure how anyone who loves weather couldn't find excitement in this."

 

post-4070-0-45815500-1510612892.png

Wow, great post!  I find that extremely peculiar and fascinating.   That's like winning the jackpot in a Mega Millions lottery!  LOL...what are the odds of that even happening.  It seems we are getting the clues from all kinds of different directions this season.  

[OKwx2k4]

Wow, great post! I find that extremely peculiar and fascinating. That's like winning the jackpot in a Mega Millions lottery! LOL...what are the odds of that even happening. It seems we are getting the clues from all kinds of different directions this season.

Looks like 2013 also means it looks like 1978 too right? Awesome stuff.

[jaster220]

Looks like 2013 also means it looks like 1978 too right? Awesome stuff.

 

Interestingly, 77-78 was not nearly as snowy in SMI as 13-14, unless you lived close enough to Lk Michigan to get all the NW flow LES events. Ofc, the MOAB's made that winter for the rest of the non-LES belt areas what it is known for, but the other storms were shared around the eastern CONUS during that cold season. 13-14 was an extremely focused storm track/gradient (like a cold vs of 07-08) that favored areas further east in SMI. I'm seeing a combo of those two seasons as a real possibility, with similar cold regime, the frequent snows of 13-14, plus the potential of a huge hit like this region has not seen in 40 yrs. 

[Niko]

The backside of this system could provide some snowshower activity, even squalls, as colder air filters in late Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will also be howling. Temps will be falling by the pm hour into the 30s. Sunday looks blustery and downright cold with snowshowers in the air. Prolly not getting outta the low 30s for highs.

[OKwx2k4]

Interestingly, 77-78 was not nearly as snowy in SMI as 13-14, unless you lived close enough to Lk Michigan to get all the NW flow LES events. Ofc, the MOAB's made that winter for the rest of the non-LES belt areas what it is known for, but the other storms were shared around the eastern CONUS during that cold season. 13-14 was an extremely focused storm track/gradient (like a cold vs of 07-08) that favored areas further east in SMI. I'm seeing a combo of those two seasons as a real possibility, with similar cold regime, the frequent snows of 13-14, plus the potential of a huge hit like this region has not seen in 40 yrs.

A lot of what I got in 2013-14 was 100 percent luck. Southern branch couldn't ever get going and was entirely driven by the northern branch with only small upper level waves all season. It was one of a kind for longevity of cold and ice or snow cover on the ground in my lifetime at least. Only a couple of years even get close to the 45 days of snow cover in 1978-79 here though.

[Tom]

12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system.

 

[gimmesnow]

I am really hoping for snow or bust with this system. A lot of the ski hills in the GL region already blew snow and are open, a half an inch or more would be pretty rough on them.

[jaster220]

@ OkWx24

 

k, thought by 78 you meant 77-78. Yeah, and same for Chicago iirc, it's the one winter (78-79) that featured solid snow cover for 60 days from mid-Dec to mid-Feb. Where I was a youth further north in MI, both were known for cold and seemingly endless snow cover. Looking at some data, looks like from Christmas of 77 until March 23rd of 78 in my native region of SEMI had 1"+ snow cvr. 78-79 snow cover ran from Christmas to first week of March, so a bit shorter. 13-14 ran from Dec 9th to March 23rd, so it trumped that 70's show by a full 2-wks. Also smoked the 70's in longevity of snow depth, tho 78's still king for max depth across SWMI.  

[jaster220]

12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system.

 

 

Per GRR @ 3 am, this is still undecided and could trend interesting as we see the energy get better sampled

 

 

 

It is noted though that fairly significant medium range guidance

discrepancies remain in terms of the eventual track and strength of

the sfc low and also with regard to timing of the system. So

forecast confidence at this time remains only moderate at best.

[jaster220]

 

 

12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system

 

Interesting that the GGEM has trended likewise over the last 4 cycles, backing a more defined SLP coming out of the Rockies. Hmm...

 

 

 

Also, if this is supposed to go neg-tilt, Idk how it scoots progressively out of the GL's like some recent model runs have shown. Going back a couple days ago, they really slowed, almost stalled this storm near MI. Now, we're again starting to see models slow it down, and the cold plunge is getting noticeably sharper..I like these trends. 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah @Jaster, I've been referring to 1978-79. Sorry about the confusion. I think we've successfully ran our conversation across all the threads. Haha.

[Money]

Some changes on the gfs

 

Low much farther south but weaker overall

[jaster220]

Some changes on the gfs

 

Low much farther south but weaker overall

 

It'd help a ton if you said which GFS, there's 4 a day and different peeps might have a pay site (vs free) that can see things before others. If you meant 12z, then yeah. But it's really progressive, and I'd lean something in between it and GGEM til it gets better sampling ingested. 

[jaster220]

Some of the globals appear to have trended  a tad stronger with the Wed system, which would support a further south weekend system imo.

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Interesting that the GGEM has trended likewise over the last 4 cycles, backing a more defined SLP coming out of the Rockies. Hmm...

 

20171114 0z gem_mslpa_us_fh96_trend.gif

 

Also, if this is supposed to go neg-tilt, Idk how it scoots progressively out of the GL's like some recent model runs have shown. Going back a couple days ago, they really slowed, almost stalled this storm near MI. Now, we're again starting to see models slow it down, and the cold plunge is getting noticeably sharper..I like these trends. 

Lets wait and see how it turns out!

[jaster220]

Lets wait and see how it turns out!

 

Yep, we're in that "Wait n see" mode thanks to the lack of uppr air data ova the ocean. We've seen this before where the models flash a strong storm based on data as the system is by the Aleutian islands, then they lose it while the systems over the ocean, only to find the storm again when it make landfall. Gonna be a long couple days, lol

 

Nonetheless, per MQT's overnight AFD, it should be a very wintery first weekend of Deer Camp for most of Da Yoopers!! 

 

 

 

However, as the system lifts across Lake

Huron, colder air advection will start to return. This will favor

the transition over to moderate to heavy lake effect snow across the

west, and the potential for accumulating system/lake enhanced snow

across the central and east. Saturday through Sunday, the main upper-

level trough will continue to slowly lift northeast of the region.

Depending on the strength of the cold air behind the system, we

could see lake effect snow showers through the weekend across the

northwest wind snow belts. As 850mb temperatures approach -10 to -15C,

inversion heights will rise and ample lake-induced CAPE is

expected to develop. Forecast soundings also show fairly deep

cloud depths and lift through the DGZ, so expect the lake effect

snow to be quite efficient with high SLRs. Therefore, the

potential is there for heavy lake effect snow Saturday and Sunday.

Given the gusty winds expected, blowing snow will likely be an

issue as well.

[Niko]

Yep, we're in that "Wait n see" mode thanks to the lack of uppr air data ova the ocean. We've seen this before where the models flash a strong storm based on data as the system is by the Aleutian islands, then they lose it while the systems over the ocean, only to find the storm again when it make landfall. Gonna be a long couple days, lol

 

Nonetheless, per MQT's overnight AFD, it should be a very wintery first weekend of Deer Camp for most of Da Yoopers!! 

Great forecast for those snowbelts.....Winter weather indeed on the way for those lake effect areas.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Strong but progressive upper level trough to swing through the
region on Saturday, with the trough axis going negative tilt
Saturday evening over the Eastern Great Lakes. Once again, near 100
percent chance of rain with deepening surface low progged to track
through southeast Michigan on Saturday, per 00z Euro, with 850 mb
dew pts climbing into the high single numbers. Even with that kind
of moisture, negative showalter values progged to reside just south
of the border. Interesting to note the farther northwest and milder
00z GFS solution, vs the farther southeast and colder 00Z Canadian
solution. Euro seems like nice compromise, but obviously still some
movement possible in future runs as the system is still off the
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast.

[jaster220]

Per NOAA:

 

Strong but progressive upper level trough to swing through the

region on Saturday, with the trough axis going negative tilt

Saturday evening over the Eastern Great Lakes. Once again, near 100

percent chance of rain with deepening surface low progged to track

through southeast Michigan on Saturday, per 00z Euro, with 850 mb

dew pts climbing into the high single numbers. Even with that kind

of moisture, negative showalter values progged to reside just south

of the border. Interesting to note the farther northwest and milder

00z GFS solution, vs the farther southeast and colder 00Z Canadian

solution. Euro seems like nice compromise, but obviously still some

movement possible in future runs as the system is still off the

British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast.

 

The GGEM is actually a very promising look for winter time, would be even stronger no doubt with some sub-freezing temps to work with..

 

 

[Niko]

The GGEM is actually a very promising look for winter time, would be even stronger no doubt with some sub-freezing temps to work with..

 

20171115 0z 96hr GEM MSLP and anoms for Nov 18.jpg

That low is sitting at a sweet spot. That's where it should be positioned for some big time snows.

[jaster220]

0z GFS was still flashing the potential for this to be a fairly strong SLP, even if it'd be a bit late to help SWMI much.

 

 

[Niko]

0z GFS was still flashing the potential for this to be a fairly strong SLP, even if it'd be a bit late to help SWMI much.

Just a bit more neg tilt and it will look better.

[jaster220]

That low is sitting at a sweet spot. That's where it should be positioned for some big time snows.

 

Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger would be pretty good for SWMI and LES chances. So, I'll take either later on in winter tbh..

[Niko]

Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger would be pretty good for SWMI and LES chances. So, I'll take either later on in winter tbh..

 

 

That scrudes me ova though......

[jaster220]

That scrudes me ova though......

 

Ik, good thing we're only talking hypothetical scenarios, eh? 

[jaster220]

Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger 

 

Ofc, latest GGEM keeps the track but goes to the GFS's strength. Oh! for the love of some cold air. 

 

As is, this would make for one raw Saturday night around here..

 

 

[Niko]

Ik, good thing we're only talking hypothetical scenarios, eh?