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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

GLs bomb
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#101
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Was just going to post that Euro was a "no-go for snow" for SWMI, when you pulled this on me  :lol:

Euro showed potential, but not cold enough....it may be drinking the "warm" coolaid of late...


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#102
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:51 AM

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Vote for GFS. ;)

 

Some snowshowers are possible as the low departs away, but big question remains, if any accumulations will occur.  All depends how quickly cold air is pulled in into the system and how much moisture is available. It might be an all rain event and then, turning colder w a few passing flurries or something more impressive. Who knows. We will see! :unsure:

 

Btw: can you imagine waking up Sunday morning to a big, outta nowhere wtf snowstorm w several inches of snow otg. Tbh, I really like surprise snowstorms. :D

 

Euro tosses you in SEMI some flakes, a dab maybe. Tells SWMI betta luck next time! LOL, tho as Tom's posts show, these systems are last-minute "surprise" style pattern players. Which will be awesome going forward!  :D  Oh well, we're gettin there - progress when there's decent synoptic snows just a few counties north, eh?

 



#103
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:54 AM

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High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

nam3km_mslp_wind_ncus_60.png

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png



#104
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:56 AM

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Euro showed potential, but not cold enough....it may be drinking the "warm" coolaid of late...

 

Yeah, just like it's ensemble partner, it could be playing catch-up with the cold and not be good in these marginal situations. Looking like we have a nice system to track tho, eh? Also, the last-minute +trends are a great sign for the LRC going forward. GHD-2 was like that, kept getting bigger each model cycle right up til game-time basically. Was never a huge fan of the short-range models, but looks like this is the year we'll be leaning on 'em  ;)


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#105
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:57 AM

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Now this is a good track across the I-80 corridor...

 

 


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#106
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:58 AM

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@ Hi-rez NAM

 

:o Look at those winds on S Lk Mich! Sweetness  :D

 

Edit - and those aren't even the gusts


Edited by jaster220, 16 November 2017 - 07:07 AM.


#107
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:58 AM

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Yeah, just like it's ensemble partner, it could be playing catch-up with the cold and not be good in these marginal situations. Looking like we have a nice system to track tho, eh? Also, the last-minute +trends are a great sign for the LRC going forward. GHD-2 was like that, kept getting bigger each model cycle right up til game-time basically. Was never a huge fan of the short-range models, but looks like this is the year we'll be leaning on 'em  ;)

Yes!  I thought that about 10 min ago, seriously, let's see what the GFS/EURO show today as the models seem to be getting better data.


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#108
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:59 AM

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Now this is a good track across the I-80 corridor...

 

Wowza at that gif buddy! PM AFD's awwta be interesting, eh?


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#109
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:01 AM

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High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

nam3km_mslp_wind_ncus_60.png

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

 

:) Man that paints some kinda dynamic thumping snow over Marshall  :lol:  Lake shadow warmth hoses areas further west  :wacko:  Not sure what to think tbh



#110
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:05 AM

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@ Tom - IF it plays out like this, would surely go a long ways towards cementing the seasonal expectations of strong CO lows for the sub. I've noticed over the years, that the storms will follow the favored storm track, and the cold will catch up when it's the right month for them to produce snow. That can range ofc from Oct to Jan, depending on the latitude/region of the track.


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#111
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:13 AM

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:) Man that paints some kinda dynamic thumping snow over Marshall  :lol:  Lake shadow warmth hoses areas further west  :wacko:  Not sure what to think tbh

Its possible, if cold air catches up w the moisture.



#112
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:32 AM

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Band of 3-6 inches of snow with it. Trends are def slower/stronger the last day or so


Tough to get 3-6” with 2m temps running in the mid to upper 30s. Gonna need some mighty precip rates.

#113
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:53 AM

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12z GFS with similar track and intensity but with different results. Barely any snow.

#114
Madtown

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:58 AM

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Hmmm interesting....see what happens!

#115
WBadgersW

Posted 16 November 2017 - 08:41 AM

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d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_53.png


That is beautiful
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#116
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 08:45 AM

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It's gonna be a very close call for NMI - tiny adjustments at the right levels, and it's a much bigger event up there. From APX's overnight AFD:

 

 

 

Interesting to note
that if temps aloft cool another degree or two than currently
progged early Saturday afternoon, a transition to all snow much
earlier in the day would be a possibility...and thus higher
accumulation of wet/heavy snow. However, as it stands now, only
minor snow accumulations expected through late Saturday afternoon
with additional lake effect snow possible Saturday night-Sunday.

 



#117
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Euro tosses you in SEMI some flakes, a dab maybe. Tells SWMI betta luck next time! LOL, tho as Tom's posts show, these systems are last-minute "surprise" style pattern players. Which will be awesome going forward!  :D  Oh well, we're gettin there - progress when there's decent synoptic snows just a few counties north, eh?

 

attachicon.gif20171116 0z 78hr Euro snowfall to Nov19.jpg

Yes..but, that's too far north. :lol:



#118
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:25 AM

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Yes..but, that's too far north. :lol:

 

In an avg autumn/winter, mid-December climo would still favor NMI to get the storm. We're way outside our normal climo for storms. That finally shifts down our way about Christmas. Truth be known, if I see a tenth of an inch I've prolly beat climo on Nov 18 in Marshall. But, early cold is in vogue this year so it ups the ante for earlier shot at it tho, I'll give ya that :lol:


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#119
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:37 AM

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3k NAM!  Obviously this isn't realistic in terms of accumulations, but again it would be fun to just see the snow flying.  

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#120
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:44 AM

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High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

nam3km_mslp_wind_ncus_60.png

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

 

Track/strength depicted is actually very reminiscent of mid-Dec '00 bliz  ;)  ;)


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#121
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:53 AM

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Track/strength depicted is actually very reminiscent of mid-Dec '00 bliz ;) ;)


Woof woof. Good storm. Good analog year buddy. I like it.
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#122
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 10:19 AM

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Track/strength depicted is actually very reminiscent of mid-Dec '00 bliz  ;)  ;)

Snow knocking on my doorstep Jaster. The NAM might be on to something. :blink: :unsure:



#123
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:23 PM

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18z NAM flashing a nice “thump” SN for IA...

#124
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:37 PM

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18z NAM flashing a nice “thump” SN for IA...

 

with so many NAM's out there, we need to know if that's the over-hyper 3km or the parent 32km cuz it makes huge diff in this very marginal instance.. ;)

 

Edit - 32km looks to hit IA (and dare I say) SE Neb..


Edited by jaster220, 16 November 2017 - 12:40 PM.


#125
Madtown

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:40 PM

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Gimme some suga...i am your neighbor
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#126
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:41 PM

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with so many NAM's out there, we need to know if that's the over-hyper 3km or the parent 32km cuz it makes huge diff in this very marginal instance.. ;)

Both!  I rarely look at the 32km and primarily use the 12km/3km...



#127
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:41 PM

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18z NAM flashing a nice “thump” SN for IA...

 

And NEB peeps?? Did I see that right?  :huh:


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#128
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:42 PM

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Both!  I rarely look at the 32km and primarily use the 12km/3km...

 

Is there a reason you "dis" the 32km? Remember, I'm new to the whole following of the model runs..so don't really know



#129
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:43 PM

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Gimme some suga...i am your neighbor

 

NAM for President! 



#130
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:44 PM

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Snow knocking on my doorstep Jaster. The NAM might be on to something. :blink: :unsure:

 

Fixed..



#131
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:48 PM

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I'm posting the 10:1 ratios for dramatic effect.  NAM! NAM! NAM!

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#132
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:49 PM

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18z NAM3km really wraps this storm up...979mb storm in NE OH!

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_58.png

 

 



#133
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:50 PM

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Is there a reason you "dis" the 32km? Remember, I'm new to the whole following of the model runs..so don't really know

Not necessarily, I just don't use it in my daily "model watching" routine...


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#134
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 12:52 PM

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Good thing is, both NAM models are seeing a better phasing system earlier and the convection showing up on the 3km is something "sweet" about this storm.  I can see big fatty flakes falling from the sky whoever is lucky to get underneath the banding that sets up.  You can see the defo band forming as the storm wraps up.



#135
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 01:28 PM

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Good thing is, both NAM models are seeing a better phasing system earlier and the convection showing up on the 3km is something "sweet" about this storm.  I can see big fatty flakes falling from the sky whoever is lucky to get underneath the banding that sets up.  You can see the defo band forming as the storm wraps up.

 

Guy on the SMI forum who was all-in for the originally forecast severe stuff, posted that the convection indicated by the 18z NAM might "make this interesting after all. Would be a short-duration blizzard for those caught in the cross-hairs"..wow do I love these trends! Remember me posting about how rare it is with today's guidance to get any real surprise storms like happened in my youth?? More of your universe vibes stuff going here.. ;)


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#136
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 01:33 PM

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Guy on the SMI forum who was all-in for the originally forecast severe stuff, posted that the convection indicated by the 18z NAM might "make this interesting after all. Would be a short-duration blizzard for those caught in the cross-hairs"..wow do I love these trends! Remember me posting about how rare it is with today's guidance to get any real surprise storms like happened in my youth?? More of your universe vibes stuff going here.. ;)

Love it!  Yup, I agree...certainly a dynamic system and part of the reason why I think the EURO/GFS are not showing a lot of frozen precip.  Systems that rapidly deepen as being advertised tend to create their own cold air from the cooling column.  These details should be ironed out by tomorrow but I wont be surprised to see some lighting even!


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#137
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 01:51 PM

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The NAMily has easily been the best model(s) this season so far. Definitely hoping we get the backside snow that they are advertising right now.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#138
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2017 - 02:03 PM

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Good read from the DVN AFD

 

 

 

Saturday

Widespread precip is likely Saturday morning, possibly lasting into
part of the afternoon across the eastern CWA. Early morning thermal
parameters support rain as the precip type. But as low-level cold
air advection and the effects of dynamic cooling both increase,
there is potential for a changeover to a rain/snow mix or all snow.
The best chance is along and north of a line from Fairfield, IA
to Freeport, IL. It`s lower to the SE, but still possible.

Time-height sections have a frontogenetic band developing beneath
a coupled jet structure which produces deep layer ascent across
the CWA. The jet feature and Fgen are actually forecast to be
over southern/central Nebraska Friday night, then reach E Iowa/NW
Illinois by Saturday morning. A meteorological setup like this one
is conducive for a period of light to moderate precip, so the
hardest part about the forecast is definitely the precip type.

If snow occurs, antecedent wet ground conditions and marginal sfc
wet-bulb temps above 32 F, will make it difficult to get more than
slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces or the grass. It is still
too early to have any confidence on where, and if, a localized
narrow band of moderate snow would occur. It`s something we`ll
continue to monitor for in subsequent model runs, because it would
increase the potential for brief snow accumulations, and for
visibility restrictions to those traveling.

Model Trends:

The ECMWF is the warmest model and would be mainly rain. Other
models, NAM/GFS/CMC, are colder and indicate a higher probability
for a period of snow. The 3km NAM nest is the most aggressive model
with dynamic cooling resulting in a quick changeover to snow, which
eventually reaches all the way to the eastern CWA toward late
Saturday morning. Went colder than the model blend sfc temps, but
not as cold/aggressive with the changeover as the 3km NAM. Model
consensus QPF is on the order of 0.10 to 0.30 inches for Saturday,
but could locally be higher within narrow bands. There is still
time to trend toward a more significant/prolonged period of all
snow if models, like the NAM, are consistent over the next few
runs.


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#139
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2017 - 03:05 PM

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The RGEM also starting to pull in some back side snows for Saturday.  

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#140
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 05:30 PM

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The RGEM also starting to pull in some back side snows for Saturday.  
 
sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Very nice! Goes with that DVN write-up as well.

#141
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:17 PM

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GRR's pm AFD didn't even mention the NAM. Going with rain then a chance of some SHSN Sat night. Not so much as a potential change-over.

#142
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:29 PM

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APX - expecting quite a long duration wind event


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

...Rain transitions to snow this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Gusty winds will develop Saturday and
persist through Sunday night. Rain will transition to snow Saturday,
with a round of lake effect snow Sunday.

#143
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:34 PM

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GRR's pm AFD didn't even mention the NAM. Going with rain then a chance of some SHSN Sat night. Not so much as a potential change-over.

Yeah our local office is ignoring the NAMily like usual too. Not a smart move imo.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#144
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:48 PM

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GRR's pm AFD didn't even mention the NAM. Going with rain then a chance of some SHSN Sat night. Not so much as a potential change-over.


They’re smart for not getting sucked into the NAM at this point. Cold-biased and it’s the only model showing any decent snow. Not saying it can’t score a coup but can you really trust it?
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#145
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:10 PM

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00z nam backed off on the depth of the cold air. Still showing some snow but not as widespread and looks to be shorter duration than previous runs. 3k nam a little stronger but also weaker than the last couple runs

#146
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:14 PM

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Something to keep an eye on. :)



#147
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:36 PM

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RPM model is showing snow across IA/S WI/N IL...primarily over S WI

#148
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 08:14 PM

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Every single NWS and TV met here is still refusing to acknowledge even the possibility of a snowflake falling. I know it's inconsistent, but c'mon. Worst case scenario, it'll be a few wet snowflakes mixing in.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#149
GDR

Posted 16 November 2017 - 08:51 PM

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Same here just calling for drizzle

#150
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:03 PM

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Rain will end as a few flurries and turning sharply colder as the low departs. Winds will be a big factor as they will gusts to as high as 40mph. WCF will be quite cold, into the teens. :ph34r: