November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

[bud2380]

Models trying to flash a little snow Saturday morning in my neck of the woods.  DVN mentioned it in their AFD as well.  A trend to keep an eye on.  Most likely will not be able to accumulate, but it'd be fun to watch it fly.  

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017111518/069/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

Models trying to flash a little snow Saturday morning in my neck of the woods.  DVN mentioned it in their AFD as well.  A trend to keep an eye on.  Most likely will not be able to accumulate, but it'd be fun to watch it fly.  

 

It sure is trying, isn't it? After Sunday, when models leaned too cold in that marginal system, I'll believe only when I see flakes, lol. The original scenario with the low stalling allowed the cold to get pulled in, now it stays progressive and I have doubts the cold will catch-up in time. I also fight lake warmth shadowing mby this early, from that standpoint you could have a better shot.

[Tom]

00z NAM looks a little colder and more snow this run...not a lot but trending this way.

[bud2380]

NAM getting even more aggressive with back side snow chances Saturday.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017111600/066/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

GFS starting to think about some snow too.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017111600/066/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[Niko]

Perhaps some snowshowers Saturday nite as the low departs away and colder air filters in. Nothing extreme though.

[Doppler_Dustin]

0z GFS is trending this storm slower and stronger than previous runs.  Maybe the NAM is onto something.  

 

[james1976]

0z GFS is trending this storm slower and stronger than previous runs. Maybe the NAM is onto something.

Yeah its looking that way. Nice last min trends. Kinda been the theme so far this season. Even the local mets are talkin backside snow now!

[Money]

12z NAM coming in stronger again and props to Tom on his CO low call.

[jaster220]

As of the 0z suite, the globals are in fairly good agreement of placing a lower 980's SLP around S ONT/Georgian Bay region. They all pull some cold air in behind as the system is deepening nicely as it crosses SMI/NIN border region. The GEM reflecting zero frozen, while the GFS is tantalizingly close for Marshall and SWMI. I don't have the EC for precip. In my personal experience, this is a classic classic NMI RN-->SN system. I think it will be another "close but no cigar" scenario for mby in SWMI. Being the weekend, I may chase this a few counties north to satisfy my itch to see real #snow flying 

 

GEM maintains the flattest trajectory, and warmest outcome:

 

 

 

Euro is a bit deeper/better chance for flakes flying:

 

 

 

GFS is just one massive tease for mby 

 

 

[Niko]

As of the 0z suite, the globals are in fairly good agreement of placing a lower 980's SLP around S ONT/Georgian Bay region. They all pull some cold air in behind as the system is deepening nicely as it crosses SMI/NIN border region. The GEM reflecting zero frozen, while the GFS is tantalizingly close for Marshall and SWMI. I don't have the EC for precip. In my personal experience, this is a classic classic NMI RN-->SN system. I think it will be another "close but no cigar" scenario for mby in SWMI. Being the weekend, I may chase this a few counties north to satisfy my itch to see real #snow flying 

 

GEM maintains the flattest trajectory, and warmest outcome:

 

20171116 0z 72hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg

 

Euro is a bit deeper/better chance for flakes flying:

 

20171116 0z 72hr Euro 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg

 

GFS is just one massive tease for mby 

 

20171116 0z 72hr GFS mb & precip for Nov18.jpg

Vote for GFS.

 

Some snowshowers are possible as the low departs away, but big question remains, if any accumulations will occur.  All depends how quickly cold air is pulled in into the system and how much moisture is available. It might be an all rain event and then, turning colder w a few passing flurries or something more impressive. Who knows. We will see!

 

Btw: can you imagine waking up Sunday morning to a big, outta nowhere wtf snowstorm w several inches of snow otg. Tbh, I really like surprise snowstorms.

[Tom]

12z NAM coming in stronger again and props to Tom on his CO low call.

Thanks Money, seems like this is a theme for the season with plenty of CO low's.  When I saw the Euro about 3-4 days ago show that Jet energy or "speed max" coming out of CO, I said, we gotta watch this.  This thing could be a very health "share the wealth" in future cycles.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM gives us .32" of precip, with a period of wet snowflakes. Actually not bad for just getting the back edge.

[Tom]

12z NAM slower, stronger and looks like it tries going neg tilt a bit earlier also...

[Tom]

High rez NAM showing a nice look out in NE/IA...

 

[Tom]

992mb just north of STL...wow, these trends are no joke...could be another last minute "surprise"...

[Tom]

D**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

[Minny_Weather]

High rez NAM showing a nice look out in NE/IA...

 

Yeah. It'll be too warm for accumulation but I'm just happy with the precip.

[jaster220]

d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

 

Was just going to post that Euro was a "no-go for snow" for SWMI, when you pulled this on me 

[Money]

d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

Band of 3-6 inches of snow with it. Trends are def slower/stronger the last day or so

[Tom]

Was just going to post that Euro was a "no-go for snow" for SWMI, when you pulled this on me 

Euro showed potential, but not cold enough....it may be drinking the "warm" coolaid of late...

[jaster220]

Vote for GFS.

 

Some snowshowers are possible as the low departs away, but big question remains, if any accumulations will occur.  All depends how quickly cold air is pulled in into the system and how much moisture is available. It might be an all rain event and then, turning colder w a few passing flurries or something more impressive. Who knows. We will see!

 

Btw: can you imagine waking up Sunday morning to a big, outta nowhere wtf snowstorm w several inches of snow otg. Tbh, I really like surprise snowstorms.

 

Euro tosses you in SEMI some flakes, a dab maybe. Tells SWMI betta luck next time! LOL, tho as Tom's posts show, these systems are last-minute "surprise" style pattern players. Which will be awesome going forward!    Oh well, we're gettin there - progress when there's decent synoptic snows just a few counties north, eh?

 

 

[Tom]

High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Euro showed potential, but not cold enough....it may be drinking the "warm" coolaid of late...

 

Yeah, just like it's ensemble partner, it could be playing catch-up with the cold and not be good in these marginal situations. Looking like we have a nice system to track tho, eh? Also, the last-minute +trends are a great sign for the LRC going forward. GHD-2 was like that, kept getting bigger each model cycle right up til game-time basically. Was never a huge fan of the short-range models, but looks like this is the year we'll be leaning on 'em 

[Tom]

Now this is a good track across the I-80 corridor...

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Hi-rez NAM

 

Look at those winds on S Lk Mich! Sweetness 

 

Edit - and those aren't even the gusts

Edited November 16, 2017 by jaster220

[Tom]

Yeah, just like it's ensemble partner, it could be playing catch-up with the cold and not be good in these marginal situations. Looking like we have a nice system to track tho, eh? Also, the last-minute +trends are a great sign for the LRC going forward. GHD-2 was like that, kept getting bigger each model cycle right up til game-time basically. Was never a huge fan of the short-range models, but looks like this is the year we'll be leaning on 'em 

Yes!  I thought that about 10 min ago, seriously, let's see what the GFS/EURO show today as the models seem to be getting better data.

[jaster220]

Now this is a good track across the I-80 corridor...

 

Wowza at that gif buddy! PM AFD's awwta be interesting, eh?

[jaster220]

High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

 

 

 

Man that paints some kinda dynamic thumping snow over Marshall    Lake shadow warmth hoses areas further west    Not sure what to think tbh

[jaster220]

@ Tom - IF it plays out like this, would surely go a long ways towards cementing the seasonal expectations of strong CO lows for the sub. I've noticed over the years, that the storms will follow the favored storm track, and the cold will catch up when it's the right month for them to produce snow. That can range ofc from Oct to Jan, depending on the latitude/region of the track.

[Niko]

Man that paints some kinda dynamic thumping snow over Marshall    Lake shadow warmth hoses areas further west    Not sure what to think tbh

Its possible, if cold air catches up w the moisture.

[St Paul Storm]

Band of 3-6 inches of snow with it. Trends are def slower/stronger the last day or so

Tough to get 3-6” with 2m temps running in the mid to upper 30s. Gonna need some mighty precip rates.

[Tom]

12z GFS with similar track and intensity but with different results. Barely any snow.

[Madtown]

Hmmm interesting....see what happens!

[WBadgersW]

d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

That is beautiful

[jaster220]

It's gonna be a very close call for NMI - tiny adjustments at the right levels, and it's a much bigger event up there. From APX's overnight AFD:

 

 

 

Interesting to note
that if temps aloft cool another degree or two than currently
progged early Saturday afternoon, a transition to all snow much
earlier in the day would be a possibility...and thus higher
accumulation of wet/heavy snow. However, as it stands now, only
minor snow accumulations expected through late Saturday afternoon
with additional lake effect snow possible Saturday night-Sunday.

 

[Niko]

Euro tosses you in SEMI some flakes, a dab maybe. Tells SWMI betta luck next time! LOL, tho as Tom's posts show, these systems are last-minute "surprise" style pattern players. Which will be awesome going forward!    Oh well, we're gettin there - progress when there's decent synoptic snows just a few counties north, eh?

 

20171116 0z 78hr Euro snowfall to Nov19.jpg

Yes..but, that's too far north.

[jaster220]

Yes..but, that's too far north.

 

In an avg autumn/winter, mid-December climo would still favor NMI to get the storm. We're way outside our normal climo for storms. That finally shifts down our way about Christmas. Truth be known, if I see a tenth of an inch I've prolly beat climo on Nov 18 in Marshall. But, early cold is in vogue this year so it ups the ante for earlier shot at it tho, I'll give ya that

[bud2380]

3k NAM!  Obviously this isn't realistic in terms of accumulations, but again it would be fun to just see the snow flying.  

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111612/060/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111612/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

High rez NAM gets this storm down to a 981mb SLP in NW OH at the end of its run....nice....this model does very well for convective/explosive storms.

 

 

 

 

Track/strength depicted is actually very reminiscent of mid-Dec '00 bliz