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December 2017 Observations and Discussions

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#51
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:10 AM

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12z Euro says “What storm?”

#52
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:15 AM

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Yeesh. I hope this is just models ingesting bad data, because both Euro and GFS keep the ridging throughout their runs.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#53
Stormgeek

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:18 AM

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Even with the factors we have coming together I am becoming weary of something resembling previous (unspeakable) years. Mother nature could at least throw....something this this way. Time to move to Canada. ;)

#54
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:19 AM

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12z Euro says “What storm?”

The ensembles look good as of now for some action, especially (Colder Air coming). There has to be a storm somewhere where both airmasses separate.



#55
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:35 AM

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The ensembles look good as of now for some action, especially (Colder Air coming). There has to be a storm somewhere where both airmasses separate.


You would think so. The GFS runs prior to today’s 12z were showing exactly that....a storm riding up the demarcation line. Let’s hope today’s midday model runs were them getting ‘lost’.

#56
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:42 AM

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Euro completely cuts the storm off and goes to nw flow up here. Hope this changes fast

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#57
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:48 AM

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I know better then to get suckered into this. I think the northern stream wins out.

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#58
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:53 AM

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That's (2) potent systems closely spaced just like we had in early October. Hopefully, someone scores flakes now that we're two months down the road.  ;)

 

Wow, we could really have fun with a pair like this, even adjusting for latitude 

 

 

 

In fact, as the first storm continues to weaken and push east through Monday another one will quickly move in behind it. That area of low pressure is also forecast to undergo bombogenesis and strike the Aleutian Islands late Monday into Tuesday at a similar intensity to this past weekend's storm.

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#59
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:58 AM

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Euro completely cuts the storm off and goes to nw flow up here. Hope this changes fast


Known euro bias to park energy as a cutoff low over the southwest, keep this in mind.
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#60
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:04 PM

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Euro completely cuts the storm off and goes to nw flow up here. Hope this changes fast

 

Euro being the Euro, loves to over-do troughs and hang energy back in the SW. 


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#61
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:06 PM

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Known euro bias to park energy as a cutoff low over the southwest, keep this in mind.


To add to this, unlike last year, the overall flow is much better as we have not seen cut-offs in the SW at all this Autumn. This year, we have seen “kickers” upstream to keep the flow moving. I also believe it’s all the blocking that’s screwing with the modeling.
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#62
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Sometimes models become confused w pattern change, so it takes a while for them to get adjusted and see things the correct way.



#63
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:09 PM

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You would think so. The GFS runs prior to today’s 12z were showing exactly that....a storm riding up the demarcation line. Let’s hope today’s midday model runs were them getting ‘lost’.

Yup...models tend to sometimes get disorganized w any sort of pattern change.


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#64
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:10 PM

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@ Tom

 

What is the lag-time for the BSR again? If that weekend storm (call it the 11/25 storm) cycles thru the stream, what dates would that be? Is it 10-17 days, or is that the EAR? I think the models are having major issues figuring out the pattern shift that lies ahead. What do you think?



#65
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:26 PM

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Oh i"ve seen the same thing said over and over again. I'm not too optimistic about this. I could actually see the NW flow cutting off the storm since the blocking has been so high lately. 

 

Hopefully it changes back though.


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#66
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:44 PM

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During the course of these upcoming days, I believe we will see new outcomes on the models.



#67
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:47 PM

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@ Tom

 

What is the lag-time for the BSR again? If that weekend storm (call it the 11/25 storm) cycles thru the stream, what dates would that be? Is it 10-17 days, or is that the EAR? I think the models are having major issues figuring out the pattern shift that lies ahead. What do you think?

17-21 days...and EAR is 6-10 days later...I have found it's usually centered around 7-8 days using the EAR to forecast longer range patterns/storms.  TBH, I think the models are just having a tough time figuring out what to do with the energy.  I mean, we are talking about a storm that is still over a week away.  It'll come back, just not sure about track this far out just yet.  It may end up being a 2-part system with a northern cutter and then a secondary low along the boundary.  Highly amplified patterns produce some wide range ideas at this range.

 

FWIW, both 12z GEFS/EPS still hinting at a wintry solution for the Plains states for this system.  I don't think we will get any consistency over the next few days.  Some EPS members show big hits in NE/KS and even into parts of the Midwest.  


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#68
Snowlover76

Posted 27 November 2017 - 01:25 PM

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I'm expecting nothing.

#69
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 01:32 PM

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I'm expecting nothing.

Best thing to do my friend. Nebraska doesn't get winter storms anymore lol.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#70
FV-Mike

Posted 27 November 2017 - 02:05 PM

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Accuweather thinking the pattern change coming around the 8th

 

Attached File  90.jpg   25.35KB   7 downloads


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#71
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 02:23 PM

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18z gfs more of the same as 12z. Weak flow and nw flow wins out. Sadly think this is what will happen. Gfs seems to have had good handle on storms weakening as they get closer

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#72
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2017 - 02:33 PM

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The lack of a storm isn't quite as disappointing as the lack of cold air that 12z/18z are showing. Let's wait till we get 00z data. Remember, 18z pretty much relies on 12z data.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#73
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 02:51 PM

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Accuweather thinking the pattern change coming around the 8th

 

attachicon.gif90.jpg

What a beauty of a map. Now, all we need is a storm and we are all set. :)



#74
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:05 PM

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What a beauty of a map. Now, all we need is a storm and we are all set. :)

Patterns like that do not support big southwest / ohio valley low pressure systems. Just more of the same northwest flow with quick hitting flurries and snow showers. 


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#75
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:46 PM

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Patterns like that do not support big southwest / ohio valley low pressure systems. Just more of the same northwest flow with quick hitting flurries and snow showers. 

Clipper type systems can sometimes overproduce in this NW flow and turn out to be a heck of a storm by tapping in on some GOM moisture and thats all it really takes to receive some appreciable accumulations. We just need the GOM to be open for business to tap in that moisture and then, we are in business as well.



#76
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:51 PM

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With how much I've been negative, looking forward to the 0z model runs and hopefully a flip back to what we have been seeing. Heck wouldn't even mind an all rain event.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#77
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:51 PM

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GFS is very cold and active approaching mid December w a tanking NAO and a huge PNA ridge.



#78
Hawkeye

Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:52 PM

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DVN on next week.

Models certainly have shifted away from last night's consistency

in deterministic model runs as the extended forecast's significant
storm potential is now as chaotic as a cat rodeo.

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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#79
Andrew NE

Posted 27 November 2017 - 04:38 PM

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Gary Lezak's winter forecast is up in his blog.
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#80
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:24 PM

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Accuweather thinking the pattern change coming around the 8th

90.jpg


Too far east. There's no indication that an eastern solution here is even viable.

#81
Guest_Snowball_*

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:25 PM

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Post it Andrew

#82
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:37 PM

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Post it Andrew

Here you go...

 

http://weather2020.c...inter-forecast/



#83
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:43 PM

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Garys forecast is pleasently delightful lol.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#84
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:40 PM

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Well if todays runs of the GFS were bizarre enough to literally went from 6z BLIZZARD over the Dakotas to 12z and 18z no storm to storm dumping snow over Oklahoma LOL

 

gfs_asnow_us_40.png


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#85
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:41 PM

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Well if todays runs of the GFS were bizarre enough to literally went from 6z BLIZZARD over the Dakotas to 12z and 18z no storm to storm dumping snow over Oklahoma LOL

 

gfs_asnow_us_40.png

Cutoff centered over Big Bend? Such an odd spot to park a system, I don't buy it. Let alone it sits there for days.


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#86
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:46 PM

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The CMC now too just spins it as well for days, this time over New Mexico lol

 

gem_z500a_us_41.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:34 PM

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The data on the models is screwed up obviously. I wouldn't be surprised if 00z Euro ends up looking similar too because Euro has tended to not stray far from the GFS lately.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#88
james1976

Posted 27 November 2017 - 10:08 PM

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No wonder meteorologists get a lot of flack. Imagine having to make a forecast out of this mess.
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#89
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 10:41 PM

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The EURO is much more north with the trough and doesn't dig into the southwest but still manages too have a storm comes through Nebraska dropping 3-6 inches for parts of Nebraska.

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png


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#90
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 12:00 AM

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Glad the Euro likes SE trends this early season. With 2 bombs in the Bering Sea, winter is going to start with a thump.
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#91
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 12:06 AM

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Euro control 00z.
Attached File  eps_snow_c_east_41.png   878.73KB   1 downloads

I like where this is going.

OP Euro is stuck in 2016 mode still but it'll come around.Attached File  ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_41.png   170.81KB   1 downloads
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#92
GDR

Posted 28 November 2017 - 03:57 AM

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Ha ha model craziness! Now something tries to blow up Iowa. Not buying anything right now

#93
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:27 AM

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17-21 days...and EAR is 6-10 days later...I have found it's usually centered around 7-8 days using the EAR to forecast longer range patterns/storms.  TBH, I think the models are just having a tough time figuring out what to do with the energy.  I mean, we are talking about a storm that is still over a week away.  It'll come back, just not sure about track this far out just yet.  It may end up being a 2-part system with a northern cutter and then a secondary low along the boundary.  Highly amplified patterns produce some wide range ideas at this range.

 

FWIW, both 12z GEFS/EPS still hinting at a wintry solution for the Plains states for this system.  I don't think we will get any consistency over the next few days.  Some EPS members show big hits in NE/KS and even into parts of the Midwest.  

 

From the 25th, that gives me Dec 12th (would be towards the east end of it's trek as it was in the Bering Sea at the time-stamp discussed). Is that about right to you? 



#94
Tom

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:29 AM

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lock in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Low through the first 10 days of January translating to an amplified and troughy pattern east of the Rockies basically through the entire run once we get past Dec 4-6th system.  There are some severe cold outbreaks in the mix around the middle of the month and esp when we close out December and open January.  Gotta love where this is going and I'm pretty enthusiastic about the entire pattern.  I'll be honest, I haven't personally witnessed a pattern that is being modeled like this and only read or heard the stories of the Great Winters of the late 70's.  The Euro Weeklies have been steadfast on the Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough holding strong with ample blocking over the Arctic.  Hope our sub forum scores some big hits and lots of love this month!


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#95
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:32 AM

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Glad the Euro likes SE trends this early season. With 2 bombs in the Bering Sea, winter is going to start with a thump.

 

As I mentioned yesterday as well. If both of these could turn into respectable systems across our sub, it'd be the kick-off we've all been hoping for. Getting flash-backs to Dec 11-13, 2000. And per your Euro Op, SWMI has already scored a decent LES hit by the 8th if I'm seeing that correctly. Things are looking up, wish you were up north here with the rest of us peeps, and I don't mean in NE (sorry Neb peeps)



#96
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:35 AM

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lock in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Low through the first 10 days of January translating to an amplified and troughy pattern east of the Rockies basically through the entire run once we get past Dec 4-6th system.  There are some severe cold outbreaks in the mix around the middle of the month and esp when we close out December and open January.  Gotta love where this is going and I'm pretty enthusiastic about the entire pattern.  I'll be honest, I haven't personally witnessed a pattern that is being modeled like this and only read or heard the stories of the Great Winters of the late 70's.  The Euro Weeklies have been steadfast on the Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough holding strong with ample blocking over the Arctic.  Hope our sub forum scores some big hits and lots of love this month!

 

:D Giddy-up pardner!   



#97
Tom

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:36 AM

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From the 25th, that gives me Dec 12th (would be towards the east end of it's trek as it was in the Bering Sea at the time-stamp discussed). Is that about right to you? 

You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.



#98
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 05:51 AM

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You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.

 

Awesome, yeah I read thru his post as well, and noticed the sweet looking map from 10-24. From where I sit, could only be a dream that we score that set-up even once during the cold season, let-alone more than once. Was just about to post this from the other site..#excitingtimes!

 

 

WOAH.. The bottom has fallen out on the latest CFS Weeklies. Week 2 go into the deep freeze!

 

The latest Monthlies have the winter below normal temps and above normal precip.



#99
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 06:27 AM

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I believe that models will start seeing things better once the pattern flips to colder next week.



#100
james1976

Posted 28 November 2017 - 06:29 AM

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That is one powerhouse storm on the GFS around the 12th. Too bad its 2 weeks out.
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