Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

December 2017 Observations and Discussions

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 November 2017 - 06:52 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3228 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

LOLOLOLOL That was a funny GFS run.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#102
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:05 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4716 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Euro and GFS are showing a lot of blocking in the long run. The ensembles are very good also down the road. My only concern with w all of the cold air around would be "Suppression". Something to keep an eye on.



#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:27 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1615 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Haha.....I just looked at the full 06z GFS run. It snows for at least 4 days straight and is still snowing at the end of the run. That’s one of the best fantasy storms I’ve ever seen. Only 300+ hours to go....
  • Illinois_WX, jaster220 and FV-Mike like this

#104
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:35 AM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

Haha.....I saw looked at the full 06z GFS run. It snows for at least 4 days straight and is still snowing at the end of the run. That’s one of the best fantasy storms I’ve ever seen. Only 300+ hours to go....

 

isso beeyootiful. You and I would both be shut down from that lol just a monstrous blizzard. 314 hours away though so yeah :(


  • jaster220 and St Paul Storm like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:43 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1615 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

isso beeyootiful. You and I would both be shut down from that lol just a monstrous blizzard. 314 hours away though so yeah :(


Of course it’s going to happen. I’ll be on a flight back from Ireland at this time and would miss it.

#106
Snowlover76

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:47 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1343 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

isso beeyootiful. You and I would both be shut down from that lol just a monstrous blizzard. 314 hours away though so yeah :(



d**n. It actually hits Nebraska?

#107
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:51 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3228 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

d**n. It actually hits Nebraska?

With 19". I think we've only had one other storm with a bigger total than that here in history.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#108
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:52 AM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

Take it with a Costco bag of salt:

 

 

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh312-384.gif   1.44MB   2 downloads


  • jaster220 likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#109
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:53 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3228 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

ROTFLMAO

 

Attached File  GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png   111.33KB   5 downloads

 

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!


  • jaster220 and Thunder98 like this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#110
Snowlover76

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:57 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1343 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
0% chance of happening.


0.

#111
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:59 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3228 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

0% chance of happening.


0.

Well yeah, it's the GFS at the 300+ range.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#112
Snowlover76

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:02 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1343 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Well yeah, it's the GFS at the 300+ range.

It'll probably end up burying Chicago in the end like every other storm does.
  • jaster220 and Tony like this

#113
GDR

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:06 AM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1243 posts

ROTFLMAO

GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!

what site is that map from?

#114
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:09 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3228 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

what site is that map from?

College of DuPage.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#115
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:35 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.

 

So, perhaps the Euro had the right idea, but got a little ahead of itself? With a slight date correction, this may still be in play  ;)

 

 

 


  • Tom likes this

#116
Tom

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:36 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16769 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I actually don't mind the look the 12z GFS showed today.  NE PAC ridge is more stout on the 3rd/4th which forces more cold air into the mid section of the nation.  Just need the trough to kick out a bit quicker and many on here will be in business with a better phasing of both streams.


  • jaster220 likes this

#117
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:39 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

ROTFLMAO

 

attachicon.gifGFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

 

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!

 

You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!"  :lol:



#118
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:41 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

I actually don't mind the look the 12z GFS showed today.  NE PAC ridge is more stout on the 3rd/4thg which forces more cold air into the mid section of the nation.  Just need the trough to kick out a bit quicker and many on here will be in business with a better phasing of both streams.

 

 

(was just thinking the same thing - it's getting the idea at least..)


  • Tom likes this

#119
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:43 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

0% chance of happening.


0.

 

BAD-BAD-BAD to be in the bulls-eye 300 hrs out. Kiss of Death!



#120
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:43 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4716 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!"  :lol:

:lol:



#121
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:44 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4716 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

That is one juicy storm and whoever falls into that system will score big-time!


  • jaster220 likes this

#122
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:45 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Take it with a Costco bag of salt:

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh312-384.gif

 

Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho???  Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality..



#123
gabel23

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:47 AM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1194 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho???  Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality..

Actually yes, almost the exact same track with the retrograde back to the west a little bit; just like the 6z showed. We just need something to track, I like the nice weather but bring on winter already!! 


  • jaster220 likes this

#124
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:49 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

It'll probably end up burying Chicago in the end like every other storm does.

 

Can you image if you added in the enhancement off of Lake Michigan?  :o  You can't blame Tom if it happens, cuz Joe D. called it today. Tom will be an innocently #buried bystander! (he has a hidden snow magnet btw)  :ph34r:



#125
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:53 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4716 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Big change next week from what I am seeing from the models. By mid week IMBY, temps really start dropping. Although, they have dry conditions along w the cold, which, on my end, finds it to be dull. We need "White Powda" to go along w it.



#126
Stormgeek

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:54 AM

Stormgeek

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 274 posts

You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!"  :lol:


Hehehe. At this point I will take it. Sure it might disappear on 12z but just seeing a snow signature this season seems to be pleasing.
  • jaster220 likes this

#127
bud2380

Posted 28 November 2017 - 09:17 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1882 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

There is some serious cold on the GFS from the day 10-15 time period.  Highs across the midwest mostly in the teens and 20s.  That will be a major shock after the 50s, 60s, and even 70s as of lately.  



#128
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 09:27 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3057 posts
That mid month system has my name on it too. Same scenario as first week of October and then mid October. Blocking was really late, pattern hadn't regressed at all then. Got a strong feeling that blocking won't be late this time. Both storms look like they'll run from near me to the GLs.
  • jaster220 likes this

#129
Snowlover76

Posted 28 November 2017 - 10:47 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1343 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
The 12z loses it

#130
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 28 November 2017 - 10:51 AM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1260 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

The 12z loses it


Thanks for the update.
  • jaster220 likes this

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#131
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 10:51 AM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1006 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)
Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#132
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 11:26 AM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again.


  • snowstorm83 likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#133
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 12:52 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm.

 

GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again.

 

The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride  :lol:



#134
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:08 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3057 posts

The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride :lol:


Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that. :lol:
  • jaster220 likes this

#135
Tony

Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:19 PM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that. :lol:

And add another 7 more. After that is when I think the fun will start or at least get a little more consistency In the modeling world.


  • jaster220 likes this

#136
NEJeremy

Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:24 PM

NEJeremy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1909 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE
This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.

Attached Files



#137
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:47 PM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.

 

Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry.


  • NEJeremy likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#138
NEJeremy

Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:53 PM

NEJeremy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1909 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry.

I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east.



#139
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:21 PM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east.

 

Yeah, that's just what it looks like tbh. I underestimate the powerfulness of that ridge down there, think about how much it dominated California a few years ago and gave them the worst drought in history. To think that it won't stick around, or atleast consider it is foolish imo, so I guess with my forecasts, long-range anyways, always gotta factor that spinning dirtball down there in.


  • NEJeremy likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#140
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:23 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3057 posts

This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.


Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.
  • jaster220 and NEJeremy like this

#141
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 03:05 PM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1103 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.

GFS goes full send in Oklahoma and Texas, then it gets ridiculously cold it looks like. Definitely a plausible outcome /s


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#142
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 03:36 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1006 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Guess everyone here thought it wasn't going to happen...that the low completely cuts itself off and now look, it was a trend lol. Still time for change obviously but thats dwindling 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#143
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 04:44 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3057 posts
Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here.
  • jaster220 likes this

#144
james1976

Posted 28 November 2017 - 04:55 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4081 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Someone may score something out of that system next week but my eyes are set on Dec 10th or so and after.

#145
james1976

Posted 28 November 2017 - 04:58 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4081 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Bottom drops out by mid month. Hope we can score some clippers. That looks like a powerful arctic flow.

#146
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2017 - 06:01 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4592 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.

  

Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here.


Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho

#147
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:16 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3057 posts


Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho



What's crazy is that there's a second system up the pipe somewhere 4-5(ish) days after the first one and there's really no telling what is going to happen with that one.
  • jaster220 likes this

#148
Niko

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:18 PM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4716 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Man, its going to get mighty cold next week, especially, by the weekend. :ph34r:


  • OKwx2k4 likes this

#149
buzzman289

Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:52 PM

buzzman289

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 33 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids,Ia

ROTFLMAO

 

attachicon.gifGFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

 

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!

snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lol



#150
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:09 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1006 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lol

Thats usually over Omaha don't worry lol.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/