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December 2017 Observations and Discussions


Niko

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Well if todays runs of the GFS were bizarre enough to literally went from 6z BLIZZARD over the Dakotas to 12z and 18z no storm to storm dumping snow over Oklahoma LOL

 

gfs_asnow_us_40.png

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Well if todays runs of the GFS were bizarre enough to literally went from 6z BLIZZARD over the Dakotas to 12z and 18z no storm to storm dumping snow over Oklahoma LOL

 

gfs_asnow_us_40.png

Cutoff centered over Big Bend? Such an odd spot to park a system, I don't buy it. Let alone it sits there for days.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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The EURO is much more north with the trough and doesn't dig into the southwest but still manages too have a storm comes through Nebraska dropping 3-6 inches for parts of Nebraska.

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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17-21 days...and EAR is 6-10 days later...I have found it's usually centered around 7-8 days using the EAR to forecast longer range patterns/storms.  TBH, I think the models are just having a tough time figuring out what to do with the energy.  I mean, we are talking about a storm that is still over a week away.  It'll come back, just not sure about track this far out just yet.  It may end up being a 2-part system with a northern cutter and then a secondary low along the boundary.  Highly amplified patterns produce some wide range ideas at this range.

 

FWIW, both 12z GEFS/EPS still hinting at a wintry solution for the Plains states for this system.  I don't think we will get any consistency over the next few days.  Some EPS members show big hits in NE/KS and even into parts of the Midwest.  

 

From the 25th, that gives me Dec 12th (would be towards the east end of it's trek as it was in the Bering Sea at the time-stamp discussed). Is that about right to you? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lock in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Low through the first 10 days of January translating to an amplified and troughy pattern east of the Rockies basically through the entire run once we get past Dec 4-6th system.  There are some severe cold outbreaks in the mix around the middle of the month and esp when we close out December and open January.  Gotta love where this is going and I'm pretty enthusiastic about the entire pattern.  I'll be honest, I haven't personally witnessed a pattern that is being modeled like this and only read or heard the stories of the Great Winters of the late 70's.  The Euro Weeklies have been steadfast on the Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough holding strong with ample blocking over the Arctic.  Hope our sub forum scores some big hits and lots of love this month!

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Glad the Euro likes SE trends this early season. With 2 bombs in the Bering Sea, winter is going to start with a thump.

 

As I mentioned yesterday as well. If both of these could turn into respectable systems across our sub, it'd be the kick-off we've all been hoping for. Getting flash-backs to Dec 11-13, 2000. And per your Euro Op, SWMI has already scored a decent LES hit by the 8th if I'm seeing that correctly. Things are looking up, wish you were up north here with the rest of us peeps, and I don't mean in NE (sorry Neb peeps)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lock in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Low through the first 10 days of January translating to an amplified and troughy pattern east of the Rockies basically through the entire run once we get past Dec 4-6th system.  There are some severe cold outbreaks in the mix around the middle of the month and esp when we close out December and open January.  Gotta love where this is going and I'm pretty enthusiastic about the entire pattern.  I'll be honest, I haven't personally witnessed a pattern that is being modeled like this and only read or heard the stories of the Great Winters of the late 70's.  The Euro Weeklies have been steadfast on the Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough holding strong with ample blocking over the Arctic.  Hope our sub forum scores some big hits and lots of love this month!

 

:D Giddy-up pardner!   

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From the 25th, that gives me Dec 12th (would be towards the east end of it's trek as it was in the Bering Sea at the time-stamp discussed). Is that about right to you? 

You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.

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You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.

 

Awesome, yeah I read thru his post as well, and noticed the sweet looking map from 10-24. From where I sit, could only be a dream that we score that set-up even once during the cold season, let-alone more than once. Was just about to post this from the other site..#excitingtimes!

 

 

WOAH.. The bottom has fallen out on the latest CFS Weeklies. Week 2 go into the deep freeze!

 

The latest Monthlies have the winter below normal temps and above normal precip.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I believe that models will start seeing things better once the pattern flips to colder next week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Euro and GFS are showing a lot of blocking in the long run. The ensembles are very good also down the road. My only concern with w all of the cold air around would be "Suppression". Something to keep an eye on.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Haha.....I saw looked at the full 06z GFS run. It snows for at least 4 days straight and is still snowing at the end of the run. That’s one of the best fantasy storms I’ve ever seen. Only 300+ hours to go....

 

isso beeyootiful. You and I would both be shut down from that lol just a monstrous blizzard. 314 hours away though so yeah :(

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You got it.  I'm thinking around the Dec 11th-15th time frame we should see something coming out of the southern Plains with a +PNA pattern being modeled during this period it may end up being more suppressed.  We should see an energized southern jet and I'm also believing we may see an explosive system.  I read through Gary Lezak's winter forecast and he used the late Oct GL's bomb as an Exhibit to this years LRC.  Last nights 06z GFS flashed this storms potential, something along those lines is on the table.  The Dec 11th-15th window would fit Gary's early call of a 45-51 day cycle and that would line up with the GL's bomb of late Oct.  Coincidentally, this is when the pattern flipped really cold and basically all the longer range models, including the CFSv2, are honing in on a very cold 2nd half of December.

 

So, perhaps the Euro had the right idea, but got a little ahead of itself? With a slight date correction, this may still be in play  ;)

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I actually don't mind the look the 12z GFS showed today.  NE PAC ridge is more stout on the 3rd/4th which forces more cold air into the mid section of the nation.  Just need the trough to kick out a bit quicker and many on here will be in business with a better phasing of both streams.

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ROTFLMAO

 

attachicon.gifGFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

 

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!

 

You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!"  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I actually don't mind the look the 12z GFS showed today.  NE PAC ridge is more stout on the 3rd/4thg which forces more cold air into the mid section of the nation.  Just need the trough to kick out a bit quicker and many on here will be in business with a better phasing of both streams.

 

 

 

(was just thinking the same thing - it's getting the idea at least..)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0% chance of happening.

 

 

0.

 

BAD-BAD-BAD to be in the bulls-eye 300 hrs out. Kiss of Death!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!"  :lol:

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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