12/4 - 12/5 Upper Midwest Major Storm

[Tom]

Will it snow in your back yard???  Met winter is about to begin....how will Mother Nature "kick start Winter"???

 

Let's dive in....

 

Not much snow showing up on the 12z GFS run today but it has trended more towards the Euro this run.  At this juncture, it's to be expected. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/156/snku_acc.conus.png

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS still showing widely variable outcomes...a few members stand out...

[Tom]

12z Euro nearly bombs out heading into S CA and gives some snow to N IA/S MN...

[Stormgeek]

I'll take e5 for 400, Tom.

[Doppler_Dustin]

12z Euro nearly bombs out heading into S CA and gives some snow to N IA/S MN...

[Doppler_Dustin]

Euro has been consistent with this solution over the last few days. It gives me hope!

[Tom]

Euro has been consistent with this solution over the last few days. It gives me hope!

This storm has potential for you guys. Looks dynamic and I think if it phases into a strong storm you can see some decent accumulations out of this enough to whiten up the landscape.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro nearly bombs out heading into S CA and gives some snow to N IA/S MN...

12z Euro. All hail the King. It might not be much, but if it snows it’s gonna be around for quite a while.

[Tom]

18z GFS trending towards the Euro and dishing out a couple inches. Trough is looking better.

[St Paul Storm]

Cyclogenesis on the 18z? I’m on my phone but it’s looking good!

[Tom]

Cyclogenesis on the 18z? I’m on my phone but it’s looking good!

Let’s hope it’s getting its act together!

[jaster220]

Noticed the Euro takes from 995 mb to 974 mb in 24 hrs. If cold air is on the move, I'd go with that scenario as likely.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

18z gfs ens look interesting!

[jaster220]

18z gfs ens look interesting!

Early week system, or end of run? Has that BD look again, but stays south of us all. I'll join you Neb n Iowa peeps in hurling my lunch if that happens :-\

[Niko]

If colder air rushes in fast enough, I can probably squeeze in a few flakes at the very end.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The 0z NAM looks very interesting with the organization 500mb wise;

 

 

 

As well as the radar;

 

[Minny_Weather]

The 0z NAM looks very interesting with the organization 500mb wise

Yeah I actually noticed that too. Must say it'd be nice to get an inch out of this.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And just after I type that...the GFS takes two steps back and weakens the system even more lol

[Tom]

And just after I type that...the GFS takes two steps back and weakens the system even more lol

Actually, 00z GFS is a bit more amped and organized as it tracks through WI/U.P of MI...trending towards an earlier phase like the Euro.

[St Paul Storm]

0z GEM starting to come around to the idea as well. Nothing major, but it’s putting down a swath of light snow.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Actually, 00z GFS is a bit more amped and organized as it tracks through WI/U.P of MI...trending towards an earlier phase like the Euro.

I'm talking about down here lol. I do NOT get excited for other areas to get snow and not here lol.

[Tom]

I'm talking about down here lol. I do NOT get excited for other areas to get snow and not here lol.

I hear ya, although, earlier development of the system would be better for ya’ll also.

[NEJeremy]

It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

Unfortunately they don't always come back the same way. Like you could have a -NAO in October and that couldn't mean for you but come back when it repeats you have a +NAO and it still doesn't mean for you lol. 

[Doppler_Dustin]

0z euro is really ramping up this system. 987mb right over Rochester. I really like how much cold air is getting involved here. Now if this storm could only track a few hundred miles east!

[Minny_Weather]

Hot D**n that was a good Euro run for us. Too bad it has temps just above freezing so accumulations aren't awesome.

[Tom]

00z Euro with a dynamic and explosive system!  Intensifies from a 994mb near OMA at 12z Dec 4th to a massive 976mb GL;s monster over Lake Superior in 24 hours!  Sweet looking defo band showing up for MN peeps!  This system is trending nicely....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120100/mw/ecmwf_ptype_mw_96.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120100/mw/ecmwf_ptype_mw_102.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120100/greatlakes/ecmwf_ptype_greatlakes_108.png

 

 

This storm is doing exactly what I thought it would on the Euro.  Now, we just need the rest of the models to catch up to it.  WI peeps even get some wrap around snow/snow showers.

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120100/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_108.png

[Tom]

06z GFS baby stepping towards the Euro...

 

[Tom]

It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

As Craig mentioned, not every cycle will behave the same way, esp in the Winter months.  With that being said, one can have a valid argument (as I believe), this LRC could be portrayed as a 60-day cycle.  I have shown many examples of a 30-day harmonic cycle and this system is now beginning to stand out and solidify my believe that we are indeed seeing either A) 30-day Harmonic repeating LRC Cycle # 2 beginning its new cycle. 

 

 

Just look at the precip shield being shown on the 00z Euro and its trending towards the Oct 6th-7th storm....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120100/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_108.png

[Tom]

FWIW, 00z Euro control loves MN peeps!  00z EPS is also trending snowier for ya'll up in MN...I'm enthusiastic to see this trending in the right direction.  Hey, maybe James might score some snow out of this in N IA!

[Tom]

00z Ukie with a powerful 983mb storm over the U.P.  Trends in the models to amp this system are increasing.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017120100/conus/ukmet_mslp_conus_102.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017120100/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_108.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom 

 

Nice trends! Cold on the move is always an "octane booster" from my experience over the years. Going to see if any MI offices are talking up this trend in their overnight AFD's? Could be some wind for SMWI at least..

[Tom]

12z NAM trending in the right direction...gotta love it, this storm is heading towards my camp from my initial call.  MN peeps are going to cash in...heck, the way the 12z NAM looks at HR 84, NE peeps may get back wash snows from the developing Defo band.  This is a season where you cannot disregard the last minute surprises given the nature of how this season has set up since Oct.

[jaster220]

Tom's post for the Oct 5-7 system

 

 

 

12z GFS spinning up a strong Lakes storm this Sat that develops coming out of CO....neg tilt...

 

Sounds a whole lot like what's being portrayed by the models now with the Euro leading the way on next week's system. 

 

As for the griping on the (L)RC - I'd fault the writers listing a prelim number of days, and not Ma Nature herself. Looks like a longer full cycle is in the making/confirming thus 60-ish days. 

 

And yeah, you have to read the fine print right next the asterisk (*) at the bottom of the (L)RC contract.

 

In case you missed that, here it is..

 

" *Exact duplicate results for yby are not guaranteed upon re-looping of systems"

[Tom]

Tom's post for the Oct 5-7 system

 

 

Sounds a whole lot like what's being portrayed by the models now with the Euro leading the way on next week's system. 

 

As for the griping on the (L)RC - I'd fault the writers listing a prelim number of days, and not Ma Nature herself. Looks like a longer full cycle is in the making/confirming thus 60-ish days. 

 

And yeah, you have to read the fine print right next the asterisk (*) at the bottom of the (L)RC contract. In case you missed that, here it is..

 

" *Exact duplicate results for yby are not guaranteed upon re-looping of systems"

Haha, that's funny and yet right on point!  Like you said, nothing in nature is going to happen "exactly" and using the LRC's technology is intended to portray a "general" storm track and as a forecaster you need to include A) Seasonal Shifts  Blocking  and other influences that can adjust systems, troughs, ridges, etc.

[Niko]

I'm not going to get snow from this dynamic system, but, boy, its going to provide some brief warmth w temps in the 50s or 60s, along w showers and very strong winds followed by true "Arctic Air" and rap around snowshowers or squalls and temps just getting colder and colder and colder as the week progresses.

 

ATM, it looks like SEMI will be getting bouts of snows during the remainder of the week, but tbh, not sure how much, but hopefully, some accumulations. IMHO, a storm could pop up at any moment during the course of this "Arctic Airmass" and provide this sub forum feet of snow outta nowhere. Think of it like an "Express Train" arriving unexpectedly and people reacting so surprised and  amazed.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

I appreciate your analogy effort pardner, but the vast majority of us American peeps rarely ride/rode a train unless you grew up in a top-5 metro region..  

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

I appreciate your analogy effort pardner, but the vast majority of us American peeps rarely ride/rode a train unless you grew up in a top-5 metro region..  

Trains are my number 1 rides whenever I visit NYC. Taxis are my 2nd rides. You get to your destination a lot faster than driving a car. I usually drive my car to Astoria, Queens and take the N train from there. Its impossible to survive your car brakes more than a month when driving in Manhattan.

 

I was fortunate enough to have been born and raised in one of the top #1 cities.

[Tom]

Remember not long ago the models were cutting off the trough in the SW??? This is a year where the flow doesn’t allow these troughs to cut off as they dive into the west. Instead, they come out and dig unlike we have seen in a number of years.

[Tom]

12z GFS def is seeing the Euro this run... 3-6” across MSP