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12/4 - 12/5 Upper Midwest Major Storm

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#51
FV-Mike

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:31 PM

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LOT's take on the clipper potential for Thur

 

the large

scale pattern will be one that is in general likely not supportive
of a major snow system through Friday.

However, it is one that will
likely have fast southeastward
moving energetic clipper systems over the central US and Midwest.
The most robust signal for one of these has been on the Thursday
night through Friday timeframe, particularly on multiple recent
runs of the
GFS (with some GEFS ensemble support). It is far too
early to have much confidence in the track and intensity of this
clipper low, if it even materializes, so for now have low
Pops for
snow potential to close the week.



#52
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:36 PM

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Wrong thread man
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#53
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:01 PM

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18z GFS went north. Whoops. Wrong direction.

#54
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:54 PM

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0z nam basically a no show down here lol

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#55
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:27 PM

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I dont buy this system going that far north. Many ens members have it further south still. Plus with the northern stream so strong youd think it would push it further south

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#56
Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:54 PM

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Sheesh, 00z GFS really blows this storm up and hits the Dakotas/Northwoods....979mb storm near Duluth!  If the Euro jumps on the NW trend it won't bode well for our MN peeps.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png



#57
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:48 PM

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Tom you sound way too happy they are getting hit lol. This is bizzare no way it goes that far north with how strong the northern branch is

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#58
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:04 PM

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Bye bye storm, it was fun for like 3 model runs.

#59
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:10 PM

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Tom you sound way too happy they are getting hit lol. This is bizzare no way it goes that far north with how strong the northern branch is


No, I’m pretty sure he’s just happy there’s a storm to track even though it’s not in his backyard.
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#60
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:19 PM

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No, I’m pretty sure he’s just happy there’s a storm to track even though it’s not in his backyard.

I'm too bitter from the last 10 years to be happy to track someone else storm lol. sorry


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#61
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:28 PM

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The fact of the matter is..this always happens. Blows up over us over a week out..then vanishes for several days then comes back and starts looking better of you then..BAM! moves way north again for one final blow and a kiss my a** at the last minute lol. classic


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#62
Snowlover76

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:42 PM

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The fact of the matter is..this always happens. Blows up over us over a week out..then vanishes for several days then comes back and starts looking better of you then..BAM! moves way north again for one final blow and a kiss my a** at the last minute lol. classic


Yup. Another garbage winter en route

#63
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:06 PM

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Makes more sense than a track further S. #1- current snowpack.  #2 Climo. #3- temps really not that cold even behind system and if the Euro is right (12Z) torch by next weekend. Now the air mass pegged by the GFS by the middle of the month with a further S extent of the snowpack along with Climos-- that is the period to watch imo for something other then a clipper in the next 2+ weeks.


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#64
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:18 PM

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Euro going N also..... Arrowhead of MN special which is not shocking considering the players on the field and the time of year.


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#65
Doppler_Dustin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:02 PM

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Looks like best chance of snow here will be from clippers later next week. It's a waste of cold when there is no snow!

#66
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:28 PM

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Attached File  graphic.aspx.png   48.62KB   0 downloads



#67
GDR

Posted 02 December 2017 - 03:15 AM

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Yup clippers with limited moisture

#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 04:31 AM

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from MPX:

Meanwhile the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all have a slower progression of this
cyclone evolution and for that reason they are a little farther east
with the surface low and snowfall, with lesser amounts due to
slightly warmer temperatures and weaker forcing. Really tried to
find the culprit between these different solutions, but haven`t came
across it as of yet because the mass fields between both solutions
are incredibly similar leading up to the deviation that takes place
Sunday night and carries itself forward through Monday.

As alluded to above, by Tuesday there will be a very strong synoptic
cyclone over Ontario, but that really doesn`t help with
preparation for the snow and wind potential across the Upper
Midwest prior. If forced to chose between the GFS and rest of the
model suite, at this point would prefer to side with this second
solution of a more eastern, slow surface track and development.
This brings snow across more of the region, but lesser amounts.

#69
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:05 AM

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The 00z Euro/Euro Control's defo band really gets going and provides the "thump" of snow for those in the swath across IA/MN peeps.   I like what I'm seeing and the chances for those farther north to get accumulations.  Both models really dig the storm as it tracks across MN and up towards Lake Superior.  The "surprise" may be once this baby goes neg tilt and how much snow can develop in the defo band as the system slows down.  Nonetheless, a fascinating and dynamic storm looking more likely.

 

 

FWIW, 00z EPS has grown the snow band back farther west across the Dakotas suggesting early development and a healthier storm system.



#70
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:32 AM

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Bye bye storm, it was fun for like 3 model runs. 

Are you throwing in the towel??? Don't do it...don't do it...not just yet bud.... ;)



#71
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:49 AM

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My gut feeling is this storm digs/deepens just east of MSP or NW WI that'll be enough to produce a health defo band across the MSP area.  The energy from this storm is about to make landfall across B.C./WA and we should have better data in today's 12z suite of runs.

 

 

6.jpg


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#72
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:01 AM

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Are you throwing in the towel??? Don't do it...don't do it...not just yet bud.... ;)


I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. I’ll wait for the 12z runs to see what they show. The Euro gives me hope but the overall trend is not my friend. I’ll take 1-2” at this point.
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#73
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:06 AM

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I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. I’ll wait for the 12z runs to see what they show. The Euro gives me hope but the overall trend is not my friend. I’ll take 1-2” at this point.

I think at the minimum you'll get 2" at this stage, there is room you can score more but we have to see how the higher rez models handle the system as we approach the 24-36 hour period.  I have seen this movie before play out and this type of set up has me more encouraged for MSP to get a decent/plowable snow fall.


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#74
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:50 AM

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12z NAM going ham. Down to 978 over central Lake Superior. Nice defo band setting up over MN. Hope is still alive.
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#75
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:55 AM

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12z NAM going ham. Down to 978 over central Lake Superior. Nice defo band setting up over MN. Hope is still alive.

That was a good run right there buddy....I like it trending and blowing up just E of your area....



#76
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:34 AM

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d**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP.  Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend.  Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png



#77
Stormgeek

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:46 AM

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d**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP.  Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend.  Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.


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#78
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:59 AM

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Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.


This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region.

#79
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.


Dat's Lolz worthy! Hoping y'all score something outta this.

#80
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:08 AM

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Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom?

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#81
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:25 AM

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Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom?

I think you'll see something similar in 30-days.  This year there has been overwhelming support of a 30-day harmonic cycle.


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#82
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:06 AM

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At Tom

Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lol

#83
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:17 AM

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At Tom

Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lol

I know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track.  This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north.



#84
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:17 AM

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This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region.


GFS 12z now taking it down to 971 mb north of Superior! CF should be the real-deal Tuesday down our way.
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#85
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:22 AM

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I know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track.  This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north.


Just messin' with ya my man, all's good. They'll get their storm at some point, as will yby! GFS all over the place with systems/placement after the early week storm

#86
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:17 AM

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12z Euro keeping the system fairly progressive. Keeps snow amounts in check but also ensures this thing doesn’t take a hard left. I’d take it.

Attached Files


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#87
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 01:09 PM

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Wow, nice uptick in the snow shield and accumulations from the 12z EPS...trended back south from 00z EPS...12z Euro control looks great also for MN peeps.

 

 

 

 


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#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 01:22 PM

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Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good.
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#89
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 01:36 PM

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Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good.


Just finished that same Battle! I guess my prior post was wrong, we are kicking off with a synoptic storm. I just had hoped for a share-the-wealth bowling ball storm ala Dec '00 but the (L)RC did forecast a Cutter.
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#90
Niko

Posted 02 December 2017 - 03:38 PM

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Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night.



#91
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 03:47 PM

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Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night.

Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX:

"Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increased
confidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesday
morning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon to
be Great White North"
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#92
Niko

Posted 02 December 2017 - 03:52 PM

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Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX:

"Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increased
confidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesday
morning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon to
be Great White North"

Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is).



#93
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:42 PM

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Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is).

Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept.

Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075!

Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen.

#94
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:46 PM

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Meanwhile, back to this storm! Sorry for straying off topic Tom..

Idk how the Keweenaw avoids a direct hammer blow from THIS??



#95
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 05:52 PM

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And as the CAA works into the entire region, this just has nasty windchills written all over it



#96
Niko

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:29 PM

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Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept.

Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075!

Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen.

Your not disappointing.....but, No comparison w EC storms.


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#97
Tom

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:33 PM

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00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive...


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#98
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:53 PM

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3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers.

#99
hlcater

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:27 PM

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00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive...

 

3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers.

Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#100
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:02 PM

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Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so.


0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up.