Tom Posted December 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 12z GGEM coming around... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 GEM is pretty far north with the main snow. The track of the low isn’t that far off from the GFS and Euro but the snow shield is oddly way north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS shafts Nebraska with the low pressure moving too close to us. I don't expect much from this, but I'll take rain at this point, so I hope we atleast get something! EDIT: The clipper looks potent after this storm around 168hr, could be another good accumulating snowfall for MN. Looks like it winds up over N IL too, to atleast drop a few inches there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 850s are warm at the onset but crash. Surface temps will lag a bit. I’ll be damned if I complain about ratios, but it may hold accums down. 2-4” looking quite possible at this point. Let’s see what the King says. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS shafts Nebraska with the low pressure moving too close to us. I don't expect much from this, but I'll take rain at this point, so I hope we atleast get something! EDIT: The clipper looks potent after this storm around 168hr, could be another good accumulating snowfall for MN. Looks like it winds up over N IL too, to at least drop a few inches there! Has my antennae raised..could be on the board after that one. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 850s are warm at the onset but crash. Surface temps will lag a bit. I’ll be damned if I complain about ratios, but it may hold accums down. 2-4” looking quite possible at this point. Let’s see what the King says. Would love for you and others get a thumping snow hit out west! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 Has my antennae raised..could be on the board after that one. 20171201 12z 180hr GFS mb & precip for Dec8.jpgMy area as well!!! Pretty intense, solid precip. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro's still alright for Nebraska. 1-3" for much of the state and up through NW IA into MSP. For most though, totals are less than the 00z run. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 GEM went north, GFS held fairly steady, Euro went a touch south with the snow axis compared to the previous runs on each model. Will need to see if this thing can deepen a little father west. 12z Euro: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 I wouldnt be shocked if this storm went even further south Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 LOT's take on the clipper potential for Thur the largescale pattern will be one that is in general likely not supportiveof a major snow system through Friday.However, it is one that will likely have fast southeastwardmoving energetic clipper systems over the central US and Midwest.The most robust signal for one of these has been on the Thursdaynight through Friday timeframe, particularly on multiple recentruns of the GFS (with some GEFS ensemble support). It is far tooearly to have much confidence in the track and intensity of thisclipper low, if it even materializes, so for now have low Pops forsnow potential to close the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 Wrong thread man 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 1, 2017 Report Share Posted December 1, 2017 18z GFS went north. Whoops. Wrong direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 0z nam basically a no show down here lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 I dont buy this system going that far north. Many ens members have it further south still. Plus with the northern stream so strong youd think it would push it further south Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Sheesh, 00z GFS really blows this storm up and hits the Dakotas/Northwoods....979mb storm near Duluth! If the Euro jumps on the NW trend it won't bode well for our MN peeps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Tom you sound way too happy they are getting hit lol. This is bizzare no way it goes that far north with how strong the northern branch is Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Bye bye storm, it was fun for like 3 model runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Tom you sound way too happy they are getting hit lol. This is bizzare no way it goes that far north with how strong the northern branch isNo, I’m pretty sure he’s just happy there’s a storm to track even though it’s not in his backyard. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 No, I’m pretty sure he’s just happy there’s a storm to track even though it’s not in his backyard.I'm too bitter from the last 10 years to be happy to track someone else storm lol. sorry Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 The fact of the matter is..this always happens. Blows up over us over a week out..then vanishes for several days then comes back and starts looking better of you then..BAM! moves way north again for one final blow and a kiss my a** at the last minute lol. classic Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 The fact of the matter is..this always happens. Blows up over us over a week out..then vanishes for several days then comes back and starts looking better of you then..BAM! moves way north again for one final blow and a kiss my a** at the last minute lol. classicYup. Another garbage winter en route Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Makes more sense than a track further S. #1- current snowpack. #2 Climo. #3- temps really not that cold even behind system and if the Euro is right (12Z) torch by next weekend. Now the air mass pegged by the GFS by the middle of the month with a further S extent of the snowpack along with Climos-- that is the period to watch imo for something other then a clipper in the next 2+ weeks. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Euro going N also..... Arrowhead of MN special which is not shocking considering the players on the field and the time of year. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doppler_Dustin Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Looks like best chance of snow here will be from clippers later next week. It's a waste of cold when there is no snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Yup clippers with limited moisture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 from MPX: Meanwhile the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all have a slower progression of thiscyclone evolution and for that reason they are a little farther eastwith the surface low and snowfall, with lesser amounts due toslightly warmer temperatures and weaker forcing. Really tried tofind the culprit between these different solutions, but haven`t cameacross it as of yet because the mass fields between both solutionsare incredibly similar leading up to the deviation that takes placeSunday night and carries itself forward through Monday. As alluded to above, by Tuesday there will be a very strong synopticcyclone over Ontario, but that really doesn`t help withpreparation for the snow and wind potential across the UpperMidwest prior. If forced to chose between the GFS and rest of themodel suite, at this point would prefer to side with this secondsolution of a more eastern, slow surface track and development.This brings snow across more of the region, but lesser amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 graphic.aspx.pngThe 00z Euro/Euro Control's defo band really gets going and provides the "thump" of snow for those in the swath across IA/MN peeps. I like what I'm seeing and the chances for those farther north to get accumulations. Both models really dig the storm as it tracks across MN and up towards Lake Superior. The "surprise" may be once this baby goes neg tilt and how much snow can develop in the defo band as the system slows down. Nonetheless, a fascinating and dynamic storm looking more likely. FWIW, 00z EPS has grown the snow band back farther west across the Dakotas suggesting early development and a healthier storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Bye bye storm, it was fun for like 3 model runs. Are you throwing in the towel??? Don't do it...don't do it...not just yet bud.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 My gut feeling is this storm digs/deepens just east of MSP or NW WI that'll be enough to produce a health defo band across the MSP area. The energy from this storm is about to make landfall across B.C./WA and we should have better data in today's 12z suite of runs. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv/6.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Are you throwing in the towel??? Don't do it...don't do it...not just yet bud.... I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. I’ll wait for the 12z runs to see what they show. The Euro gives me hope but the overall trend is not my friend. I’ll take 1-2” at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. I’ll wait for the 12z runs to see what they show. The Euro gives me hope but the overall trend is not my friend. I’ll take 1-2” at this point.I think at the minimum you'll get 2" at this stage, there is room you can score more but we have to see how the higher rez models handle the system as we approach the 24-36 hour period. I have seen this movie before play out and this type of set up has me more encouraged for MSP to get a decent/plowable snow fall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z NAM going ham. Down to 978 over central Lake Superior. Nice defo band setting up over MN. Hope is still alive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z NAM going ham. Down to 978 over central Lake Superior. Nice defo band setting up over MN. Hope is still alive.That was a good run right there buddy....I like it trending and blowing up just E of your area.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 D**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP. Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend. Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 d**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP. Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend. Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW. Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.Dat's Lolz worthy! Hoping y'all score something outta this. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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