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December Weather In the PNW

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#1
BLI snowman

Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:23 PM

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Discuss the ridgy month to come here!



#2
Deweydog

Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:26 PM

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Discuss the retrogressive month to come here!


Fixed.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:35 PM

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Why is December always our best month. ;)


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Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#4
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:18 AM

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Mark Nelsen just predicted no snow in December. 


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Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:35 AM

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Mark Nelsen just predicted no snow in December.


You get so annoying this time of year.
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#6
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:38 AM

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If Jesse is annoyed, you've really crossed the line.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#7
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:39 AM

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I only saw Mark say ridging through week 2. East winds for at least a week! :)

 

6z GFS in 45 minutes



#8
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:53 AM

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Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...). 

 

One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#9
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:26 AM

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I agree with the gist of Mark Nelsen's prediction. The final few days of December might throw a wrench in it, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 3.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 3
Coldest High: 28.9*F
Coldest Low: 20.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: 1.8*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#10
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:30 AM

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I agree with the gist of Mark Nelsen's prediction. The final few days of December might throw a wrench in it, though.


Final few like final 8 days?
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#11
G-Sax

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:44 AM

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Block is much different on the 06z. Stronger and in better position.

 

Edit: Ouch, undercut



#12
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:55 AM

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Some backdoor cold on the 06z and then everything resets as the westerlies break through. That is one major cold wave for the country.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#13
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:48 AM

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12/1/17 6z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14

Very nice improvement

 

Day 8-14  - The positive anomaly is forecast to retrograde to roughly 150 W with an incredibly amplified block anchored over south central Alaska. This would give southern Alaska very high 500mb heights. If the block were to tilt any we would see a major blast. In this configuration we'd likely see modified arctic air into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. I would be more confident if we had a ridge over the southeast/midwest. Some cold years showing up! 12z GFS in 3 hours 31 minutes!

 

500hgt_comp_06gfs610.gif

 

500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif



#14
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 05:13 AM

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Just looking through the data for November and I guess we are due for a dry break in the weather. 21 consecutive days with measurable rainfall here. And looking at other SW BC stations, seems like most are in the 21-24 day range.

#15
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:19 AM

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If Jesse is annoyed, you've really crossed the line.


I just got off the phone with Bruce Sussman and he says it isn’t going to snow again in the Denver area until April of 2019. :(

You heard it hear first!
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#16
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:22 AM

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Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...). 
 
One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...


tldr.

#17
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:32 AM

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38 here with a nice sunrise on the way.   

 

SEA ended up at +1.3 for November with 8.63 inches of rain (2+ inches above normal).    SEA is also 10.30 inches above normal for the year of 2017.



#18
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:23 AM

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The block later next week on the 12Z GFS looks much weaker than the runs yesterday.   More in line with the ECMWF.    

 

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png



#19
Kayla

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:42 AM

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The block later next week on the 12Z GFS looks much weaker than the runs yesterday.   More in line with the ECMWF.    

 

The ridge late next week is also getting shoved further west and tilting in the last few runs as well.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 58.5"
Largest snowfall: 10.2"
Coldest high: 17ºF
Coldest low: 1ºF

Sub-zero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#20
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:16 AM

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Major differences at the end of the run on the 12z vs. the 00z.

 

12z:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_49.png

 

00z:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_50.png



#21
BLI snowman

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Midmonth torch?


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#22
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:40 AM

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I have a feeling we are going to see a lot more ensembles shoving those westerlies through in the long range. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#23
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:49 AM

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Ventrice did say there could be a lot of volatility in the models during the 11-15 day period due to a storm in the West Pacific.



#24
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:52 AM

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Ventrice did say there could be a lot of volatility in the models during the 11-15 day period due to a storm in the West Pacific.

 

I remember you posting that. Would make sense. Also would not surprise me if the point of ridging gets watered down a bit per climo. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#25
BLI snowman

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:23 AM

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I have a feeling we are going to see a lot more ensembles shoving those westerlies through in the long range. 

 

Yeah, pretty tough to avoid at least a week or so of westerly action in December. The block will be undercut and the Midwest will get to thaw.



#26
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:38 AM

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A little sun to start off December here this morning... hopefully a sign of a more pleasant month ahead.   

 

20171201_103250.jpg



#27
van city

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:41 AM

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Where's Rob, I need my play by play?
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#28
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:55 AM

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12z Euro basically keeps us under a ridge through day 10. Definitely lower amplitude than some earlier runs, though.

I can’t help but wonder if some lowland locations mix out and get pretty warm next week. To me this isn’t looking like the best low level cold setup, with a warm front brushing us Monday/Tuesday.

#29
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

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12z Euro basically keeps us under a ridge through day 10. Definitely lower amplitude than some earlier runs, though.

I can’t help but wonder if some lowland locations mix out and get pretty warm next week. To me this isn’t looking like the best low level cold setup, with a warm front brushing us Monday/Tuesday.

 

 

It will likely get more and more stagnant as the week goes on... in true winter inversion fashion.



#30
wx_statman

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:28 AM

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tldr.

 

True love doesn't run. Amen to that. 


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#31
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:49 AM

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In the climate department, we have an incredible latent heat release event ongoing now. Probably the strongest event since January 2013, from a subseasonal standpoint, and it's partially responsible for the upcoming period of wave amplification over the NPAC.

Under the antecedent -NAM, when the tropical wavenumber transitioned into a mode of constructive spatial interference approximately one week ago, convection strengthened markedly over the WPAC/IPWP, which extracted a massive load of heat from the Pacific ocean, releasing it into the middle/upper troposphere (condensation and crystallization releases latent heat).

This event has already dropped the global SSTA anomaly by at least 0.1C in just 5 days, and given the -NAM, which represents poleward transfer of heat/mass aloft in the NH, an anomalously large portion of this heat was sent into the NH extratropics, where it's now being emitted to space, as is reflected by the 1.4W/m^2 increase in the TOA OLR anomaly since Nov 18th.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 3.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 3
Coldest High: 28.9*F
Coldest Low: 20.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: 1.8*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#32
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:59 AM

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True love doesn't run. Amen to that.


Just like these colors. 🇺🇸

#33
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:02 PM

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This latent heat release peaks on December 4th, before it starts to deplete, at which point the subtropics and middle latitudes will start cooling once again, while the equatorward wavetrain strengthens and destabilizes the integral of static stability in the tropics, restarting the cycle.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 3.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 3
Coldest High: 28.9*F
Coldest Low: 20.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: 1.8*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#34
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Ridge appears to be retrograding the wrong way.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#35
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:30 PM

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A little sun to start off December here this morning... hopefully a sign of a more pleasant month ahead.

20171201_103250.jpg

Wet and cold up here...ugly.

#36
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:35 PM

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Wet and cold up here...ugly.

 

Still sunny... but rain is getting closer.  



#37
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:38 PM

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Ridge appears to be retrograding the wrong way.

I think we have to put all of our hopes and dreams on Phil’s shoulders and hope he’s spot on about January!
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#38
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:45 PM

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Having a family day up in La Connor...I cannot wait for a dry day. Ugly.

Attached Files



#39
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:45 PM

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I think we have to put all of our hopes and dreams on Phil’s shoulders and hope he’s spot on about January!


But he's predicting a slow ridge retrograde this month...

And he's one of several going with a cold January. :)

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#40
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:48 PM

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Having a family day up in La Connor...I cannot wait for a dry day. Ugly.


I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

#41
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:52 PM

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I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

41yrs of being wet and cold! I’m fine with a wet soggy November but it’s now December and I’m ready to dry off a bit!

#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:06 PM

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Well the CFS is not backing off of January...

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_2.png


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Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#43
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:07 PM

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I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

 

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

 

Andrew


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Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#44
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:17 PM

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I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.


I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#45
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:17 PM

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I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

Andrew

It’s just an annoyance when you are trying to walk the shops in La Connor and it’s just dumping so trying to keep the 3yr old somewhat dry is a challenge. Looking forward to next week’s dryness!

#46
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:21 PM

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I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.


A normal distribution of summer heat is fine with me, if that’s what you are referring to. What we have been seeing recently isn’t normal. If our wintertime climate was indeed becoming colder and wetter I might be more sympathetic, but if anything the opposite seems to be true.

#47
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:29 PM

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I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

 

Andrew

 

 

I took a break from writing about 10 emails to post this...And I signed my name on it like it was an email... :)... Can it be 5pm yet please?!


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Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#48
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:30 PM

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I took a break from writing about 10 emails to post this...And I signed my name on it like it was an email... :)... Can it be 5pm yet please?!


I’m glad you took time out of your day to respond to me. :wub:

I thought you were just being a goofball with the name signing.

#49
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:46 PM

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I’m glad you took time out of your day to respond to me. :wub:

I thought you were just being a goofball with the name signing.

:)


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#50
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:47 PM

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  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
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  • LocationWestminster, CO

41yrs of being wet and cold! I’m fine with a wet soggy November but it’s now December and I’m ready to dry off a bit!

 

YOU'RE IN LUCK!!!


  • MossMan and stuffradio like this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.