December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Block about to reorganize near 150-145 W

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Geos]

Today is the 11th (and final) consecutive dry day in a row.  

 

Can definitely tell changes are here today even. More clouds and not as much frost this morning. Low of only 35. 

[umadbro]

Day 7 Block about to reorganize near 150-145 W

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/168/500h_anom.na.png

There's that greenland block...

[Jesse]

A vague 1980's movie reference is always the way to go. A very blocky decade, you know...

Song of the same name was also released by Buddy Holly in 1957. Great January that year!

[Jesse]

There's that greenland block...

I think you mean “Jesse is an ******* “ block.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Can definitely tell changes are here today even. More clouds and not as much frost this morning. Low of only 35.

I think it stayed clearer down here. We hit 26.

[umadbro]

I think you mean “Jesse is an ******* “ block.

Try not to be so hard on yourself.

[The Swamp]

I would be more upset if someone who knew what they were talking about said it.

So don't dispute what is likely to happen, just attack the person.

 

I can play that game well, but won't.

[Geos]

Lowland snow on the EURO at 144 hr. More or less in WA.

[Jesse]

Try not to be so hard on yourself.

You were going a few posts without mentioning me, it just felt wrong.

[umadbro]

So don't dispute what is likely to happen, just attack the person.

 

I can play that game well, but won't.

If someone said that about Jesse, he would be running to the admins.

[Jesse]

If someone said that about Jesse, he would be running to the admins.

Ah, there we go!

 

I can’t get you off my mind either.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/216/500h_anom.na.png

[HighlandExperience]

Lowland snow on the EURO at 144 hr. More or less in WA.

Just a dusting in Skagit. Looks like low snow levels. Good for skiers

[Geos]

Definitely the potential for wintry conditions starting the 21st on the EURO. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Backdoor blast nears

[Jesse]

So don't dispute what is likely to happen, just attack the person.

 

I can play that game well, but won't.

We’ve had plenty of arctic air masses in the past despite the mountain ranges, just too early to worry about that kind of detail, IMO.

[Winterdog]

Day 7 Block about to reorganize near 150-145 W

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/168/500h_anom.na.png

What made you think it was about to retrograde to 145/150?

[The Swamp]

If someone said that about Jesse, he would be running to the admins.

Yes, I know.

 

I'd love for that to verify but 9 out of 10 times what ends up happening is the offshore ridge is not big enough with enough amplitude far enough north to force the cold air to jump the maountains and it slides to the east. Oh, and the SE ridge hasn't built in enough.

[The Swamp]

I love looking at eye candy. Some recent runs look amazing.

[Winterdog]

Backdoor blast nears

Screw Backdoor blasts!

[HighlandExperience]

We’ve had plenty of arctic air masses in the past despite the maintains ranges, just too early to worry about that kind of detail, IMO.

Sometimes I pretend in my mind that the entire I-5 corridor is at 3K elevation with no Puget Sound. One can dream.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 wonder how the EPS looks

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121412/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

The rollercoaster of model riding continues. Onto EPS, 00z runs

[TT-SEA]

Whew... at least we will have some strong ridging coming around Christmas!    Maybe take the boat out? 

 

[umadbro]

Whew... at least we will have some strong ridging coming around Christmas! Maybe take the boat out?

 

I'm already cleaning my pool amd getting it ready!

[MossMan]

Whew... at least we will have some strong ridging coming around Christmas! Maybe take the boat out?

 

Think it was 2004 (I could be wrong) that I took my jetski out on Christmas Eve...might have to do it again!

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing impressive next week. A few hours of 527 thickness and -5 850 temp min for a few days is not great.

Not impressive. Not warm warm.

[Front Ranger]

The main takeaway at this point is that the uber-persistent blocking in AK/Yukon looks to continue for the foreseeable future, and there are definite signs of some retrogression.

 

Big question of course is if/when we will see a full retrograde of the ridge, and will it be able to hold if/when it finally moves into that favorable spot near 150W. Right now, there simply isn't yet any signal that we'll see a full retrogression...and given history, we certainly can't rule out the possibility of the blocking ridge breaking down at some point in the near future, allowing at least a brief +EPO burst of westerlies.

 

It's been a pretty stagnant pattern, and those often take longer to progress than models project. This one is moving like molasses.

[Front Ranger]

This continues to be my main concern. It's not that Arctic blasts can't happen without the WPO going negative first, but seeing this tank would make me a lot more confident of something big in the next 10-15 days.

 

[Deweydog]

High clouds!

 

The winds of change are blowin'!!!

[MossMan]

High clouds!

 

The winds of change are blowin'!!!

Watch out for flying lawn furniture or inflatable Santa’s.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

High clouds!

 

The winds of change are blowin'!!!

Scorpions 1990. Good tune I was in 11th grade lol. I remember cruising my 67 chevelle and hearing it for the first time. Time flies.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS hold block offshore unlike the odd Op run shoving it inland. A lot of promise and potential.

 

I think future runs we see the Aleutian ridge progressively become a few notches stronger/more amplified due to Kamchatka bomb. It won't be pushed east and thrown around like now.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 26 minutes

[Guest Dome Buster]

Wut.

Just meaning the incessant offshore flow and the fact we have more goddamn smoke in December.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS hold block offshore unlike the odd Op run shoving it inland. A lot of promise and potential.

 

I think future runs we see the Aleutian ridge progressively become a few notches stronger/more amplified due to Kamchatka bomb. It won't be pushed east and thrown around like now.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 26 minutes

Control run goes nuts. Classic pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Control run goes nuts. Classic pattern.

EPS strong retrogression. Just like Phil said.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Phil's knowledge is over the top. love reading everything he adds to the forum. 

[Front Ranger]

Scorpions 1990. Good tune I was in 11th grade lol. I remember cruising my 67 chevelle and hearing it for the first time. Time flies.

Also Jefferson Starship. Time has flown even more since their song!