December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the CFS is not backing off of January...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

 

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

 

Andrew

[Deweydog]

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.

[MossMan]

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

 

Andrew

It’s just an annoyance when you are trying to walk the shops in La Connor and it’s just dumping so trying to keep the 3yr old somewhat dry is a challenge. Looking forward to next week’s dryness!

[Jesse]

I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.

A normal distribution of summer heat is fine with me, if that’s what you are referring to. What we have been seeing recently isn’t normal. If our wintertime climate was indeed becoming colder and wetter I might be more sympathetic, but if anything the opposite seems to be true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

 

Andrew

 

 

I took a break from writing about 10 emails to post this...And I signed my name on it like it was an email... ... Can it be 5pm yet please?!

[Jesse]

I took a break from writing about 10 emails to post this...And I signed my name on it like it was an email... ... Can it be 5pm yet please?!

I’m glad you took time out of your day to respond to me.

 

I thought you were just being a goofball with the name signing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m glad you took time out of your day to respond to me.

 

I thought you were just being a goofball with the name signing.

[Front Ranger]

41yrs of being wet and cold! I’m fine with a wet soggy November but it’s now December and I’m ready to dry off a bit!

 

YOU'RE IN LUCK!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The dumpster fire is running.

[Jesse]

The dumpster fire is running.

Better go catch it.

[umadbro]

If you love fog next week will be your favorite week ever!

[Deweydog]

Seems to be some apprehension in retrogression.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages.  I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be.  I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data.  Maybe Phil knows.  Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens.  Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit:  This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

 

 

Then here are the actual temps:

 

 

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35.  Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees.  I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.  

 

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.    

[Farmboy]

Seems to be some apprehension in retrogression.

It'll happen, it has to, the sanity of many in the pac nw depends on it!

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of cold ensemble members by mid month.

[Phil]

Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages. I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be. I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data. Maybe Phil knows. Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens. Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit: This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

 

anomaly.png

 

Then here are the actual temps:

 

sfct.us_nw.png

 

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35. Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees. I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.

 

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.

Is that anomaly for the entire 12hr period? Or is it just a snapshot for 12/17 @ 4pm?

 

If it's the latter, it might be a resolution issue with the GFS, since there's plenty of high terrain around Seattle which might be included in the grids. Either that, or the spatial resolution of the climate averages used in the maps is too low,

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Is that anomaly for the entire 12hr period? Or is it just a snapshot for 12/17 @ 4pm?

If it's the latter, it might be a resolution issue with the GFS, since there's plenty of high terrain around Seattle which might be included in the grids. Either that, or the spatial resolution of the climate averages used in the maps is too low,

Just a snapshot. I should try sometime to check areas where it is flatter and warm to see what it does. Though it does the same for Spokane and Eastern Washington, though not as extreme.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where's Rob, I need my play by play?

Busy day. I will likely be here for 00z runs this evening though.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours

00z CMC in 3 hours 45 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 21 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages.  I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be.  I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data.  Maybe Phil knows.  Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens.  Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit:  This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

 

anomaly.png

 

Then here are the actual temps:

 

sfct.us_nw.png

 

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35.  Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees.  I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.  

 

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.    

 

 

GFS temperature data is total crap.

 

GFS MOS is much better.

 

ECMWF is even better.

 

(average high in Seattle now is around 48)

[Gradient Keeper]

Certainly some nice improvements on 18z GEFS.

[High Desert Mat!]

Redmond averages for this date

 

41 high

25 low

 

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.

[Timmy]

Redmond averages for this date

 

41 high

25 low

 

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.

#wintercancel

[MossMan]

At least the the rain finally stopped before we left La Conner!

[ShawniganLake]

39F with some chunky rain showers late this afternoon

[Gradient Keeper]

39F with some chunky rain showers late this afternoon

Chunky like.... Oprah/Rain mixed, or Rosie O'Donnell splats on windshield?

 

00z GFS in 2 minutes!

[ShawniganLake]

Chunky like.... Oprah/Rain mixed, or Rosie O'Donnell splats on windshield?

 

00z GFS in 2 minutes!

Heavy splat confirmation.

 

Looking at the 0z Nam for late tomorrow, I think the snow level could drop to 500-1000ft or so in northern areas.

[Gradient Keeper]

Heavy splat confirmation.

 

Looking at the 0z Nam for late tomorrow, I think the snow level could drop to 500-1000ft or so

LOL fantastic. Yeah it will be nice to see snow levels lowering.

[DareDuck]

Redmond averages for this date

 

41 high

25 low

 

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.

Next week looks like several 40/20 days. So long as we’re above the fog that sounds good to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like the Pivotal site might be running slow again just like last night. Well, that's gay.

[snow_wizard]

I'm very pleased to see 1956 showing up as a top analog again today.  On today's official CPC composite map late November 1956 showed up with two of the top 10 analogs to the pattern we are about to enter.  Very strong analog in a number of ways except solar.  On another positive note about 75% of the recent CFS runs have shown us going into the ice box sometime between mid Dec and early Jan.

[ShawniganLake]

Reports of sticking snow as low as 1100ft in Greater Vancouver this evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to previous runs ridge is stronger and more amplified. Thus far energy between date line and 150 W is weaker.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[MossMan]

42 and dry for the moment here.

[Jesse]

Reports of sticking snow as low as 1100ft in Greater Vancouver this evening.

Wow lucky. We’ve been pretty mild down here. Stuck between 44-49 for the last 24 hours with mild SW winds.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow lucky. We’ve been pretty mild down here. Stuck between 44-49 for the last 24 hours with mild SW winds.

Yea. It’s cold and wet here. The ski hills near Vancouver were buried today. 20” at Mt Seymour

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7