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December Weather In the PNW

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#51
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:32 PM

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The dumpster fire is running.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#52
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:40 PM

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The dumpster fire is running.


Better go catch it.

#53
umadbro

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:41 PM

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If you love fog next week will be your favorite week ever!

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#54
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:24 PM

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Seems to be some apprehension in retrogression.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#55
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:30 PM

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Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages.  I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be.  I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data.  Maybe Phil knows.  Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens.  Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit:  This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

 

Attached File  anomaly.png   281.57KB   0 downloads

 

Then here are the actual temps:

 

Attached File  sfct.us_nw.png   321.27KB   0 downloads

 

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35.  Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees.  I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.  

 

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.    


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#56
Farmboy

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:32 PM

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Seems to be some apprehension in retrogression.

It'll happen, it has to, the sanity of many in the pac nw depends on it!

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#57
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:39 PM

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A lot of cold ensemble members by mid month.
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#58
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:54 PM

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Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages. I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be. I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data. Maybe Phil knows. Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens. Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit: This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

anomaly.png

Then here are the actual temps:

sfct.us_nw.png

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35. Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees. I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.


Is that anomaly for the entire 12hr period? Or is it just a snapshot for 12/17 @ 4pm?

If it's the latter, it might be a resolution issue with the GFS, since there's plenty of high terrain around Seattle which might be included in the grids. Either that, or the spatial resolution of the climate averages used in the maps is too low,
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#59
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:23 PM

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Is that anomaly for the entire 12hr period? Or is it just a snapshot for 12/17 @ 4pm?
If it's the latter, it might be a resolution issue with the GFS, since there's plenty of high terrain around Seattle which might be included in the grids. Either that, or the spatial resolution of the climate averages used in the maps is too low,


Just a snapshot. I should try sometime to check areas where it is flatter and warm to see what it does. Though it does the same for Spokane and Eastern Washington, though not as extreme.

#60
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:24 PM

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Where's Rob, I need my play by play?

Busy day. I will likely be here for 00z runs this evening though.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours

00z CMC in 3 hours 45 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 21 minutes



#61
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:35 PM

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Something that has made me curious, and it is trivial, but it makes me wonder about the data that the NCEP uses for averages.  I have been noticing that when they show temps above normal on the models, they are often really exaggerating how much above normal the temps are forecast to be.  I am not claiming a global warming conspiracy, but just curious as to how they get their data.  Maybe Phil knows.  Here is an example, and by the way, it doesn't matter whether it is Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather, the same thing happens.  Two graphs, the first is for 4PM on Sunday the 17th, and it shows the temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit:  This is probably close to the time of the daytime high temp, maybe off by an hour, but close.

 

attachicon.gifanomaly.png

 

Then here are the actual temps:

 

attachicon.gifsfct.us_nw.png

 

So they are saying 54 degrees for Seattle (certainly warm) is 19 degrees above normal, so normal should be about 35.  Average high for Seattle that time of year is probably 45, not 35, so they are off by about 10 degrees.  I have notices this pretty consistently watching the models.  

 

Not a big deal, but it makes me wonder about the quality of their data.    

 

 

GFS temperature data is total crap.

 

GFS MOS is much better.

 

ECMWF is even better.

 

(average high in Seattle now is around 48)



#62
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:47 PM

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Certainly some nice improvements on 18z GEFS.


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#63
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 December 2017 - 05:41 PM

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Redmond averages for this date

41 high
25 low

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.

#64
Timmy

Posted 01 December 2017 - 05:43 PM

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Redmond averages for this date

41 high
25 low

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.


#wintercancel

#65
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:16 PM

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At least the the rain finally stopped before we left La Conner!

Attached Files


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#66
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:45 PM

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39F with some chunky rain showers late this afternoon
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#67
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:22 PM

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39F with some chunky rain showers late this afternoon

Chunky like.... Oprah/Rain mixed, or Rosie O'Donnell splats on windshield?

 

00z GFS in 2 minutes!



#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:25 PM

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Chunky like.... Oprah/Rain mixed, or Rosie O'Donnell splats on windshield?

00z GFS in 2 minutes!

Heavy splat confirmation.

Looking at the 0z Nam for late tomorrow, I think the snow level could drop to 500-1000ft or so in northern areas.
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#69
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:25 PM

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Heavy splat confirmation.

Looking at the 0z Nam for late tomorrow, I think the snow level could drop to 500-1000ft or so

LOL fantastic. Yeah it will be nice to see snow levels lowering.



#70
DareDuck

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:25 PM

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Redmond averages for this date

41 high
25 low

I think the coldest that it gets is something like a 38/22 split. So we're nearing that peak already.


Next week looks like several 40/20 days. So long as we’re above the fog that sounds good to me.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#71
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:35 PM

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It looks like the Pivotal site might be running slow again just like last night. Well, that's gay.



#72
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:47 PM

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I'm very pleased to see 1956 showing up as a top analog again today.  On today's official CPC composite map late November 1956 showed up with two of the top 10 analogs to the pattern we are about to enter.  Very strong analog in a number of ways except solar.  On another positive note about 75% of the recent CFS runs have shown us going into the ice box sometime between mid Dec and early Jan.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#73
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Reports of sticking snow as low as 1100ft in Greater Vancouver this evening.
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#74
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:56 PM

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Day 4

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_17.png



#75
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:58 PM

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Compared to previous runs ridge is stronger and more amplified. Thus far energy between date line and 150 W is weaker.



#76
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:02 PM

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Day 5

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png



#77
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:11 PM

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Day 6

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_25.png



#78
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:13 PM

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42 and dry for the moment here.

#79
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:15 PM

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Reports of sticking snow as low as 1100ft in Greater Vancouver this evening.


Wow lucky. We’ve been pretty mild down here. Stuck between 44-49 for the last 24 hours with mild SW winds.

#80
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:18 PM

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Wow lucky. We’ve been pretty mild down here. Stuck between 44-49 for the last 24 hours with mild SW winds.

Yea. It’s cold and wet here. The ski hills near Vancouver were buried today. 20” at Mt Seymour
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#81
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:20 PM

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Day 7

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png



#82
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:25 PM

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Day 8

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png



#83
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Day 8
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png


Not good.

#84
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:33 PM

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Not good.

 

It looks awesome for North Korea!   Kim Jong-un is going to be celebrating!  


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#85
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:33 PM

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Day 9 nope. Westerlies approaching 135 W. Hmmm
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_37.png


#86
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:38 PM

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It looks awesome for North Korea! Kim Jong-un is going to be celebrating!


I hear he actually prefers nuclear winter...

#87
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:38 PM

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Day 8
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png

At least it might be too cold there to launch his ICBM!

#88
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:39 PM

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Day 10

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_41.png



#89
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:02 PM

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Louisiana gets a blizzard on the 00z GFS. Haha.
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#90
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:18 PM

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Pathetic Christmas

 

Attached File  cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png   83.08KB   0 downloads



#91
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:19 PM

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Louisiana gets a blizzard on the 00z GFS. Haha.

You’re laughing at us now. We are getting desperate. Sun angles become an issue in like 8 or 9 weeks.
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#92
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:21 PM

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You’re laughing at us now. We are getting desperate. Sun angles become an issue in like 8 or 9 weeks.

We're not losing light anymore in the evening in 9 days tomorrow (I'm not sad about that).



#93
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:29 PM

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We're not losing light anymore in the evening in 9 days tomorrow (I'm not sad about that).

 

I have a small celebration at that time each year!   A celebration for those who deal with winter but don't particularly like living in the dark.  Very odd... I know.   I am probably the only person at this latitude who feels better when the days start getting longer.   ;)

 

This year we bottom out on the sunset on December 7th.    



#94
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:29 PM

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The rain really hung on today, forecasts had it drying out early in the day around here but showers are still rolling through. Would be a nice snow making pattern if there were Arctic air to draw from.



#95
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:35 PM

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I have a small celebration at that time each year!   A celebration for those who deal with winter but don't particularly like living in the dark.    ;)

 

This year we bottom out on the sunset on December 7th.    

 

It's a shame we're going to use up our few weeks of ridging at a time when it will probably just lead to dark overcast; Dec/Jan are the worst for high amplitude ridging. I think even you would agree this ridging would be better placed in March. It feels like it's been awhile since we've had a ridgey March.



#96
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:40 PM

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It's a shame we're going to use up our few weeks of ridging at a time when it will probably just lead to dark overcast; Dec/Jan are the worst for high amplitude ridging. I think even you would agree this ridging would be better placed in March. It feels like it's been awhile since we've had a ridgey March.

 

 

At this time of year... I would MUCH rather have a deep trough with occasional systems coming through and some sunny, chilly days in between



#97
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:42 PM

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It's a shame we're going to use up our few weeks of ridging at a time when it will probably just lead to dark overcast; Dec/Jan are the worst for high amplitude ridging. I think even you would agree this ridging would be better placed in March. It feels like it's been awhile since we've had a ridgey March.


We had a record warm March just in 2015.

#98
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:45 PM

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Pathetic Christmas
 

attachicon.gifcfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png


After that, FWIW, according to the latest CFS run, it gets cold for 20 straight days right after Christmas.
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#99
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:47 PM

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You’re laughing at us now. We are getting desperate. Sun angles become an issue in like 8 or 9 weeks.


Lol. This place is already in midwinter mode. I keep having to remind myself that it's December 1st (2nd here).
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#100
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:48 PM

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We had a record warm March in just in 2015.

 

I stand corrected, although I don't think it was record warm here. I think March 2004 was warmer.