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December Weather In the PNW

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#101
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:50 PM

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Nice to finally have a December that doesn't blowtorch the entire country, even though the west is (temporarily) left out. The last several years have been rough in the "early winter blocking" department.
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#102
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:54 PM

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Essentially all of the seasonal model guidance is projecting a retrogression now, with the sharpest solutions centered around New Years. Analogs to the observed boundary state(s) are largely in agreement. The deep troughing over western North America could be persistent as well, probably lasting at least 3-4 weeks before we enter a pattern more like 2007/08 in February.
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#103
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:03 PM

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Essentially all of the seasonal model guidance is projecting a retrogression now, with the sharpest solutions centered around New Years. Analogs to the observed boundary state(s) are largely in agreement. The deep troughing over western North America could be persistent as well, probably lasting at least 3-4 weeks before we enter a pattern more like 2007/08 in February.


Given how angsty the forum already is, you are going to have people at your door with pitchforks and fire if the “goods” don’t start to show up after Christmas.
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#104
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:07 PM

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Given how angsty the forum already is, you are going to have people at your door with pitchforks and fire if the “goods” don’t start to show up after Christmas.


I will take him in up here above the fray when he seeks a safe haven. It's the right thing to do.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#105
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:11 PM

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00z CMCE Ensembles shows a very strong cold pool over the Columbia Basin.

 

D75dzC2.png


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#106
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:15 PM

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00z ECMWF

 

Day4

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#107
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:20 PM

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I will take him in up here above the fray when he seeks a safe haven. It's the right thing to do.


Do you have Netflix up there?

#108
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:21 PM

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Down to 34 here. Almost feels like winter

#109
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:21 PM

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Day 5

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#110
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:25 PM

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Given how angsty the forum already is, you are going to have people at your door with pitchforks and fire if the “goods” don’t start to show up after Christmas.


I'm already expecting it, lol.

Early January looks like one of those patterns that sneaks up out of nowhere on the modeling, as wavetrains will certainly be mishandled over Eurasia when the stronger blocking shifts into northern Siberia around Christmas.
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#111
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:28 PM

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Day 6

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#112
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:29 PM

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Do you have Netflix up there?


Nope. He's free to bring any VHS tapes he wants though. All I have is Golden Girls season two and Cop and a Half.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#113
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:37 PM

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Day 7

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#114
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:41 PM

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The Agung seismograph has lit up over the last 15mins. The live camera started shaking started right around that time as well, so I don't think it's the wind.


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#115
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:43 PM

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Low frequency tremor is into overscale territory again.

TMKS.png
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#116
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:43 PM

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Nope. He's free to bring any VHS tapes he wants though. All I have is Golden Girls season two and Cop and a Half.

I have VHS tapes of snowy news coverage from January 1996, November 1996, and December 1996 for Phil’s viewing pleasure during his trip up there!
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#117
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:46 PM

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I have VHS tapes of snowy news coverage from January 1996, November 1996, and December 1996 for Phil’s viewing pleasure during his trip up there!


That might be a little sadistic.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#118
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:46 PM

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I have VHS tapes of snowy news coverage from January 1996, November 1996, and December 1996 for Phil’s viewing pleasure during his trip up there!


Flatiron is mad that you don’t have DVDs from February 2006 instead.
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#119
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:47 PM

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The low frequency harmonic tremor indicates magma movement within the volcano. The fact there are still deep volcanic earthquakes registering, despite the wide open magma pathway to the surface, is kind of interesting.
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#120
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:48 PM

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The Agung seismograph has lit up over the last 15mins. The live camera started shaking started right around that time as well, so I don't think it's the wind.

Oh I think this is it! Seismo is going NUTS!



#121
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:49 PM

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Well we have this, but it's reaching so early in the month.

 

Attached File  Dec_2011_temps.png   19.54KB   0 downloads

Attached File  Dec_2011_heights.png   15.98KB   0 downloads

Attached File  Jan_2012_heights.png   15.09KB   0 downloads

 

 

Remember how the beginning of November showed a cold December, and look how that turned out.



#122
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:49 PM

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I have VHS tapes of snowy news coverage from January 1996, November 1996, and December 1996 for Phil’s viewing pleasure during his trip up there!


Such an alpha post.
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#123
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:51 PM

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Day 8

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Day 9

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#124
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:51 PM

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Well we have this, but it's reaching so early in the month.

Dec_2011_temps.png
Dec_2011_heights.png
Jan_2012_heights.png


Remember how the beginning of November showed a cold December, and look how that turned out.


Anti-log?
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#125
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:52 PM

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Anti-log?

No anti-log, pure 2011 and pure 2012. :D



#126
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:53 PM

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The low frequency harmonic tremor indicates magma movement within the volcano. The fact there are still deep volcanic earthquakes registering, despite the wide open magma pathway to the surface, is kind of interesting.

 

Yup.  Those charts look like Mount Saint Helens did before it blew.  I still remember that whole episode very clearly.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#127
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:56 PM

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Oh I think this is it! Seismo is going NUTS!


Might be, but apparently it's a deep volcanic tremor from magma movement, rather than something closer to the surface. Will have to see if it propagates upward.
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#128
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:58 PM

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Such an alpha post.

I could dub it onto BetaMax if you prefer?

#129
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:59 PM

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No anti-log, pure 2011 and pure 2012. :D


I'm gonna start bombarding your inbox with blizzard pictures, while you're sitting under the strongest ridge in history. 😘

F**k that winter.
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#130
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:00 PM

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For the record I do believe Phil is going to be spot on this season.
Oh and it suddenly got windy outside!
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#131
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:00 PM

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Day 10

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#132
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:02 PM

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I'm gonna start bombarding your inbox with blizzard pictures, while you're sitting under the strongest ridge in history.

F**k that winter.

Wasn't it great that you had record warmth in March? ;)


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#133
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:03 PM

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I could dub it onto BetaMax if you prefer?


Lol. Always fun to mix it up once in awhile.
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#134
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:05 PM

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Wasn't it great that you had record warmth in March? ;)


Azzhat. This was nice too. :D

vdcP8If.jpg
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#135
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:14 PM

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Might be, but apparently it's a deep volcanic tremor from magma movement, rather than something closer to the surface. Will have to see if it propagates upward.

The left cam seemed to show a small ash cloud, but not 100% certain.


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#136
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:15 PM

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I think the GOP tax bill passed, because I'm getting bombarded with angry political texts from family/friends. In case you're wondering why I'm still awake.
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#137
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:24 PM

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Ita going to be 90 degrees at mt Rainer and 25 in seattle.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#138
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:27 PM

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I think the GOP tax bill passed, because I'm getting bombarded with angry political texts from family/friends. In case you're wondering why I'm still awake.

 

Probably explains why the mountain is erupting too. End times have arrived.


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#139
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:29 PM

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I think the GOP tax bill passed, because I'm getting bombarded with angry political texts from family/friends. In case you're wondering why I'm still awake.

 

The middle class will do well with it so why be upset?


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#140
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:30 PM

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Probably explains why the mountain is erupting too. End times have arrived.


Watch Agung enter its explosive phase right when Trump is signing the bill. Would be pretty comical, and the geologic timing probably fits too. :lol:
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#141
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:30 PM

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For the record I do believe Phil is going to be spot on this season.
Oh and it suddenly got windy outside!

 

I have been fully advertising this winter also.  I haven't gone this all in for a long time.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#142
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:31 PM

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The middle class will do well with it so why be upset?

 

Please take it to the political side. I don't want to spend several posts over here trying in vain to un-brainwash you again.


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#143
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:32 PM

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I have been fully advertising this winter also. I haven't gone this all in for a long time.


If it busts, you can join Matt and I above the fray.
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#144
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:38 PM

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6z GFS in 1 hour 46 minutes!



#145
stuffradio

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:40 PM

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If it busts, you can join Matt and I above the fray.

In the upside down?


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#146
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:44 PM

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Please take it to the political side. I don't want to spend several posts over here trying in vain to un-brainwash you again.

 

I'm purely selfish on this.  I've looked at the details and my wife and I do well.  Good enough for me.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#147
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:46 PM

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I really wish something...anything frozen would start showing up in the models.
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#148
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:50 PM

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One comment I want to make about the evolution of the pattern is the chances are fairly good we will see the block break down for a while and then rebuild in the sweet spot as January nears.  I think a brief dry Arctic outbreak could occur as Arctic air dig back into the eastern side of the ridge before it breaks down though.  This scenario is probably more likely than the ridge retrograding and leading to a big blast directly.  It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#149
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:51 PM

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I really wish something...anything frozen would start showing up in the models.

 

We will have a lot of frost next week.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#150
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:52 PM

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I really wish something...anything frozen would start showing up in the models.


It's gonna be worth the wait.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope